🎗️Lonny's War Update- October 303-, 2023 - August 4, 2024 🎗️

  

🎗️Day 303 that 115 of our hostages in Hamas captivity
**There is nothing more important than getting them home! NOTHING!**

“I’ve never met them,

But I miss them. 

I’ve never met them,

but I think of them every second. 

I’ve never met them,

but they are my family. 

BRING THEM HOME NOW!!!”

On October 7, 2023, Hamas terrorists raided a music festival and multiple villages in southern Israel, brutally murdering, raping and mutilating over 1200 men, women and children. Over 240 were kidnapped, including then-9 month old Kfir Bibas and his 4 year old brother Ariel. Kfir turned 1 on January 18, 2024, and has now spent a third of his life in captivity. We pray for the immediate release of all hostages. #bringthemhome #bibas #kfirbibas #october7 #freethehostages #hamasisisis #freegazafromhamas #bringthemback #bringthemhomenow #artbymelissaisaakov 

There is no victory until all of the hostages are home!

‎אין נצחון עד שכל החטופים בבית

Everyone is waiting for the retaliatory attack by Iran and Hizbollah. As opposed to the attack in April which was the first direct attack by Iran joined by the Houthis and the Iraqi Pro Iranian Militias, this attack will also be with Hizbollah which changes the overall situation. The Home Front Command has released a document detailing the “Updated Scenario” in the event of an all-out war with Hezbollah was recently shared with northern mayors. We will again have the support of the American organized coalition to aid in the defenses of the Missile and UAV attacks by Iran, Houthis and the Iraqi proxies of Iran. Their assistance against the attacks by Hizbollah will be very limited due to the close proximity and the difficulties of our air defenses against the small explosive UAVs and anti tank shelling. In addition, we should expect barrages from Hizbollah in numbers that we have not seen until now with their belief that massive numbers of missiles, rockets and UAVs will overwhelm our air defenses and many will reach their targets. Let's hope that they are wrong and that our air defenses will be far more robust and be able to handle these numbers. 
There has been speculation that the attack will occur next week with Tisha B'Av, the Jewish holiday of mourning, in particular for its symbolism. There is new speculation that makes a lot of sense. That Iran is taking its time to attack because they have already caused major damage to Israel. Almost all foreign airlines have cancelled flights to and from Israel until further notice, stranding tens of thousands of Israelis outside of the country and people trying to leave the country. The other major aspects of success that Iran is seeing is the growing and continued anxiety waiting for the attack and the economic consequences to Israel, with the shekel weakening harshly against other International currencies and other aspects of the economy. 
And the worst thing is that Netanyahu has a new diversion which helps him to keep the hostages issue in the background. 

Red Alerts - Missile, Rocket, Drone (UAV - unmanned aerial vehicles), and Terror Attacks and Death Announcements

*7:55pm yesterday-north- tickets Misgav Am

*9:05pm yesterday-south- rockets Nachal Oz
*12:25am-north -rockets-Beit Hillel, Kiryat Shemona, Kfar Yuval, Maatan Baruch, Hagoshrim, Kfar Giladi, Tel Hai, Metulla, Shamir, Kfar Blum, Gonen, Lehavot Habashan, Neit Mordechai, Sde Nehemiah- more than 50 rockets launched

*7:30am - Holon - terror stabbing attack - 2 dead, a woman, 66 and a man in his 70's, at least 2 others injured
בלום, להבות

*12:10pm - south center - rockets 0 Bitzron, Gan Yavneh, Hatzor, Azrikam, Sde Uziah, Stulim
*1:10pm - North - rockets - Snir
*3:10pm - north - 2 rockets hit areas around Kiryat Shemona

הבשן,

נאות מרדכי, עמיר, שדה נחמיה

Hostage Updates 

Today is Karina Ariev's 20th birthday. She is one of the 5 surviving young women army observers who was brutalized and kidnapped to Gaza and has been held by the barbarian terrorists for 303 days.

Karina Ariev, 19, was taken captive early in the morning of October 7 by Hamas terrorists.

Her parents described speaking to her at 7 a.m. that morning, as she cried, describing a barrage of rockets and terrorists firing guns. “She screamed and said she loves us very much,” said Karina’s mother in an interview. “She told us to continue our lives.”

By 7:40, Karina’s parents lost all communication with her. “We didn’t know who to call,” they said. Later they found a Hamas video publicized on Telegram, in which three young women are laying down in a jeep, surrounded by men speaking in Arabic. Their daughter, Karina, was one of the three, her face wounded and bleeding.

Some 48 hours later, a representative from the army told them that Karina is a hostage, being held by a terror group. “We haven’t had any other information,” said Karina’s mother.

The sister of a teenager being held hostage by Hamas has revealed the last text message she sent to her concerned relatives, moments before being taken into Gaza during the 7 October attack.

Karina Ariev, 19, was last seen in a terrifying video released this week, which showed her wearing her Snoopy pajamas as she was threatened with rape, before being taken from her bed.

Just minutes before she was kidnapped, she sent a final text message to her older sister Sasha, urging her to remain strong. Speaking to The Daily Mail, her 24-year-old sister, who has paused her neuroscience studies to focus on the hostage situation, said Karina understood “this could be the end”.

“I could see the understanding in her eyes, and few minutes later she sent me a message that if she won’t leave, if she won’t make it out alive, she asked me to keep our parents safe and to be strong and not to wallow in sorrow but to continue living,” Sasha said.

Sasha with her parents have repeatedly appealed for her sister’s safe return (AP)

“She didn’t tell my parents to look after me. She told me to look after our parents. This is how we are. We are strong, and this is the bond between us and how we were holding this family together.”

Her family decided to release the footage alongside the families of Liri Albag, 19, Naama Levy, 19, Daniela Gilboa, 20, and Agam Berger, 19, all of whom are still being kept inside the besieged enclave.

Despite negotiations ensuring the release of some captives, a number of Israelis remain hostage and under consistent bombardment. “We just realised now that we are almost eight months on, that people are forgetting and that there is no deal in the horizon and we do not know where we are going through,” Sasha explained.

“So we thought that instead of talking, we will just show this video and the evidence will talk for itself. We wanted people to see and to maybe feel a little of the pain that we’re feeling every day. To understand that when we close our eyes, this is what we see. And even worse.” While the full footage is 15 minutes long and is too graphic to be shown in full to the public, it shows the terror of those who were abducted by the terrorists. “I could see her eyes pleading for help,” Sasha said. “I could see helplessness. Like she is a little baby looking for help. Like, “please help me. I don’t know what is going on here. There are grenades. I’m wounded. My best friend is lying dead in front of me.”

At the time she was taken hostage, Karina had been staying in an army base on the border of Gaza.

Despite the anguish her family are going through, Sasha has travelled the world and conducted over 100 interviews to raise awareness of her sister’s plight.

“I gave my promise to my sister that I will look after them,” she said. “She’s the one who is really fighting there. So I have no privilege to say that it’s hard for me or something, So I’m letting my parents be more emotional, like parents are, and I’m always saying that I’m strong and no one can break me no matter what.

“I’m doing everything I can to bring Karina back alive as soon as possible. And only afterwards will I allow myself to cry. Only tears of joy.”

• Thousands of protesters are rallying for a hostage deal outside Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s residence in Jerusalem tonight, marking over 300 days since the captives were seized during Hamas’s October 7 onslaught.

“The time has come for a deal, and the time has come for elections,” says former diplomat Eran Etzion to the large crowd.

He insists that a hostage deal “has been ready” to be signed for a long time, but that Netanyahu is deliberately stalling negotiations for “political, personal and criminal reasons.”

“He [Netanyahu] is stirring up a regional war with the worst imaginable starting circumstances, when Israel is weak, isolated, and the IDF is worn out,” he warns.

Etzion calls on Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and other heads of Israel’s security establishment to pressure Netanyahu into a deal.

“Your time has come,” he urges them. “The time has come to bang on his table and say: ‘You have no authority to kill the deal and the hostages!’ 

• A conversation between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US President Joe Biden that took place this week saw the Israeli leader telling Biden, "We are making progress with the negotiations; send a delegation," Channel 12 revealed on Saturday.

  Biden's blunt reply was: "Stop bullshitting me."

  In addition to the tense exchange between Netanyahu and US officials, new information has surfaced about Netanyahu's discussions with Israeli security leaders. IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi told Netanyahu, "There are conditions for the deal. I believe it is right to enter negotiations and achieve the best possible outcome. 
  
  

  "We will continue to pressure Hamas until then, and after we secure a deal, we can turn our attention to the north. Regarding the Philadelphi corridor, I do not suggest making it an obstacle or something that prevents us from bringing 30 people back home in the first stage, half of whom are women."

  Defense Minister Yoav Gallant joined the discussion, stating, "For all moral and strategic reasons, I think we should see the deal as an opportunity. There will be no deal under the conditions you set, and you know it. There is no security reason to delay the deal. Since we are speaking honestly, I will tell you that your considerations are not in the best interest of the matter." Sources familiar with the hostage deal negotiations told Channel 12, "This is a protocol trip, a waste of time. Netanyahu's current positions will not lead to real progress."

  Following these reports, the Prime Minister's Office reiterated its statement that Netanyahu expects the US not to interfere in Israeli politics. full article
  
  
  

• Opposition Leader Yair Lapid accuses Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of “continuing to delay the deal for the return of the hostages for only political reasons.”Lapid calls on the heads of Israel’s security establishment to “come out and tell the public the truth,” stating that “if the Israeli government has given up on the hostages, it should be honest with the families and stop playing games.”

  According to press reports, senior defense officials and members of Netanyahu’s negotiating team have accused Netanyahu of taking positions which would “collapse the deal.”

  An Israeli source is quoted by the Haaretz daily saying that today’s talks in Cairo failed to produce results and that “the very departure of the delegation to Egypt under these circumstances is the only good news.”

  Mossad spy agency chief David Barnea, Shin Bet security agency head Ronen Bar, and Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories COGAT Ghassan Alian held meetings with senior Egyptian intelligence and military officials focused on the release of hostages, as well as security issues regarding the Egypt-Gaza border.
  
  

• More details emerge from a Wednesday night meeting between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his security chiefs at which they reportedly urged him to close a deal with Hamas, he slapped them down, and they left the meeting concluding that he was not interested in a hostage-ceasefire deal at present.

Further quotes from the meeting show IDF chief Herzi Halevi and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant both telling Netanyahu that the new conditions he is demanding, which have reportedly been included in an updated Israeli proposal, will doom the deal, and that he knows this.

In response, Channel 12 quotes a senior source, who it indicates is Netanyahu himself, accusing his critics of acting out of political motives.  

According to tonight’s report by Channel 12 news, which first reported on the meeting last night, Halevi said during the heated discussion: “The conditions for the deal are there. I think it is correct to engage in negotiations and bring the best achievement possible. We’ll continue to apply [military] pressure on Hamas until then, and once we’ve brought a deal we can turn our attention to the north.”

Halevi reportedly added, “As regards [control of the] Philadelphi [route along the Gaza-Egypt border], I do not recommend that we turn it into an obstacle or something that prevents us from bringing home from [Gaza] 30 people in the first stage [of the deal], half of them women.”

Gallant reportedly weighed in: “For all the moral and strategic reasons, I think we have to look at the deal as an opportunity. There won’t be a deal with the [four new] conditions you’ve inserted [into the proposal], and you know it.”

Gallant reportedly added: “There is no security reason to delay the deal. Since we’re speaking candidly, I am telling you that you are making considerations that are not beneficial to the matter.”

The TV report says Netanyahu’s office insists that he does want a deal, and is insisting on conditions that will prevent Hamas from regaining power in Gaza and carrying out further October 7-style attacks.

It says that Israel’s negotiators are “on the edge” and that matters “are close to blowing up” — in an apparent reference to the friction between the prime minister and the security chiefs.

Israel’s negotiators, including Mossad chief David Barnea and Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar, traveled to and from Cairo today for talks on the Philadelphi Corridor issue and the Rafah border crossing. But Channel 12 quotes a senior source familiar with the negotiations saying, “This was a trip solely for reasons of protocol, playing for time. Netanyahu’s current positions will not yield real progress.”

The report then quotes a “political source,” who it indicates is actually Netanyahu himself, saying that there is no deal to be finalized at present. Those who say there is a deal on the table “are not telling the truth and are acting out of political motives.”

Defense Minister Gallant’s office says it does not respond to grave leaks from sensitive discussions.

Last night, when denying the accuracy of the initial report on Wednesday’s meeting, the Prime Minister’s Office released a statement specifically dismissing the claim that Mossad chief Barnea said at the meeting that there is a deal ready and that Israel must take it.

Netanyahu is reported to be planning to fire Gallant, and possibly Halevi and Bar as well. link  It is amazing, absurd and devastating that everyone knows that Netanyahu is lying and doing everything he can to prevent a deal from happening. And the most absurd of all is that he is being allowed to do so. At the demonstration for the hostages in Jerusalem last night, the former head of the National Security Council, Eran Etzion spoke and said a number of things that are so true, yet no one has challenged them. He stated the most important fact that we are still living in a democracy and not a dictatorship. It is a government of the people with the Knesset representing the people and the government led by the Prime Minister which is the arm of government that acts based on the laws of the country and the direction of the Knesset. Netanyahu has done so much to blur all those lines. As opposed to what many believe, Netanyahu does not have the veto power to prevent a deal. It is supposed to be brought to the cabinet and the Knesset. The Knesset is the body to approves or denies a deal, not Netanyahu. Unfortunately, this government, this cabinet allows Netanyahu to be in a position of dictatorship unilaterally making this decisions that, by law, he doesn't have the right to do so. This is the most important statement made and needs to be pushed up the ladder to the Knesset, the cabinet and if necessary, to the Supreme Court. I just hope that if this happens, by the time it would happen, that there will still be live hostages to be saved and brought home.

• my brother’s post:  It seems that what I have been saying for months is right - the Israeli negotiators (Barnea, Bar, Alon) have never had a mandate from Netanyahu to bring the hostages home. In April 2011 when David Meidan (Mossad) accepted the job from Netanyahu, he asked what is his mandate and Netanyahu said: Bring Him Home! (Gilad Schalit).  That mandate has never been given to the Israeli negotiators - and now they are saying it (to media personalities).  They need to say it in public, out loud, and if they have integrity they need to tell Netanyahu that they refuse to continue to negotiate when they cannot succeed.  Likewise, the mediators (Egypt and Qatar) need to stop playing the negotiating game.  They need to put their own "agreement" on the table and tell Israel and Hamas: take it or leave it!  And if it is rejected, they need to tell both Israel and Hamas that they are ceasing their efforts to mediate.  Enough is enough.  By the way, the Egyptian Qatari "agreement" needs to be that the war will end, Israel will withdraw from Gaza, Egypt and the US will secure the Gaza-Sinai border, all 115 Israeli hostages will be returned, a certain number of Palestinian prisoners will be released - Israel can select them but they will include 50% of those prisoners serving life sentences. This deal should be completed within  six weeks - not longer. This includes most of the demands and possibilities of both sides. (Gershon Baskin, August 4, 2024)

Gaza 

•  The IDF has uncovered an unusually large tunnel on the Gaza-Egypt border area, big enough for vehicles to pass through.

  According to the military, the tunnel is around 3 meters tall.

   Soldiers stand in an unusually large tunnel uncovered by the IDF on the Gaza-Egypt border area, in a photo cleared by publication on August 4, 2024. (Israel Defense Forces)

  It was found along the so-called Philadelphi Route last week, as part of efforts to uncover all of Hamas’s smuggling weapon routes in the area.

  The tunnel is being investigated by combat engineers before it will be demolished.

  Dozens of tunnels have been found along the Philadelphi Corridor, including at least 25 that crossed into Egypt.

   
  An unusually large tunnel uncovered by the IDF on the Gaza-Egypt border area, in a photo cleared by publication on August 4, 2024. (Israel Defense Forces)
  
  

• As consultations are ongoing inside Hamas to choose a successor to slain politburo chief Ismail Haniyeh, the terror group’s leader in Gaza Yahya Sinwar is said to be opposed to the appointment of Khaled Mashaal, one of the two frontrunners to the title.

  The Saudi-owned Alhadath news channel reports that Hamas leaders held a meeting yesterday in Qatar, and the message Sinwar conveyed was that he would prefer someone with a stronger relation with the Iranian leadership.

  Haniyeh’s successor will be tapped by Hamas’s politburo and by its Shura Council, a secret consultative body comprising religious and political figures.

  Pundits believe that the two frontrunners are Mashaal, a founding member of Hamas’s politburo who helmed the terror group between 2004 and 2017, and Khalil al-Hayya, a powerful figure within Hamas who was close to the slain leader.

• Following a series of recent rocket attacks on Israel from the southern Gaza Strip, the Israeli military is calling on Palestinians in some neighborhoods of Khan Younis to evacuate and head toward the designated “humanitarian zone.”

  Col. Avichay Edri, the IDF’s Arabic-language spokesman, publishes a list of the zones that need to be evacuated alongside the announcement.

  Edri says that the IDF will “forcefully operate” against terror groups in the Khan Younis area following the rocket attacks.

Northern Israel - Lebanon/Hizbollah/Syria

• Buildings used by Hezbollah, alongside other infrastructure, were struck by fighter jets in Kafr Kila in southern Lebanon this evening, the IDF says.

  The IDF also confirms the killing of a Hezbollah operative in the village of Deir Seryan earlier today in a drone strike.

  A projectile launched from Lebanon impacted a factory in the northern city of Kiryat Shmona a short while ago.  Police say officers are at the scene, and there are no injuries.  Sirens did not sound amid the incident.

West Bank and Jerusalem and terror attacks in Israel

•     Two Israeli civilians were killed and two others were wounded in a terror stabbing attack in the central city of Holon on Sunday morning, police and medics said.

  The terrorist, a West Bank Palestinian, stabbed the victims at three different locations before being shot dead by a police officer.

  “This was a complex and difficult terror attack. The casualties were at three separate locations, approximately 500 meters from each other,” Magen David Adom ambulance service medics said. A  woman aged 66 was declared dead at the scene, MDA said.

  MDA said it took three victims to nearby Wolfson Medical Center: A man in his 70s in critical condition, a man aged 68 in serious condition, and a 26-year-old in moderate condition.

  The critically wounded man arrived at Wolfson without vital signs, and his death was declared there, hospital officials said.

  The terrorist stabbed the first victims at the entrance to a park on Moshe Dayan Street, where the woman was killed and the man aged 68 was seriously hurt. He then continued to a nearby bus stop adjacent to a gas station, where he stabbed and critically wounded the man in his 70s, who was later declared dead. 

The last victim, the 26-year-old, was stabbed at a bus parking lot on Dan Shomron Street, according to MDA.

The terrorist was shot by an officer who arrived at the scene, police said. He was brought to Shamir Medical Center in critical condition, where his death was declared a short while later, hospital officials said.

He was identified by a security source as Amar Odeh, 34, a resident of the West Bank city of Salfit. The source said he did not have an entry permit to Israel, and had no prior security-related offenses. link

• Among the nine Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad operatives killed in drone strikes in the Tulkarem area of the West Bank yesterday were terrorists behind the killing of an off-duty soldier, a Border Police officer, and an Israeli civilian, the military says.

  According to the IDF, Haitham Balidi, a commander in a local wing of Hamas in Tulkarem, was part of a cell that carried out a deadly shooting attack near the West Bank town of Bayt Lid on November 2, killing off-duty IDF reservist Sgt. First Class (res.) Elhanan Klein.

  Balidi was also part of the cell that killed Chief Inspector Yitav Lev Halevi, a commander in the police’s elite Yamam counter-terrorism unit, amid a raid in the West Bank town of Dayr al-Ghusun, near Tulkarem, on May 4. Balidi was behind numerous more attacks, according to the military.

  Also among the nine slain gunmen were Jamal Abu Haniyeh and Ali Khalil, members of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad who according to the IDF shot dead Israeli civilian Amnon Muchtar in a terror attack in Qalqilya on June 21.

  Another gunman killed was Abdul Jabbar al-Sabbagh, who the IDF says was involved in shooting attacks against Israeli towns bordering the green line and settlements, including Bat Hefer, Einav, and Avnei Hefetz.

Politics and the War (general news)

•  Hundreds of anti-government demonstrators clash with mounted police in Tel Aviv.

  In the clashes on Begin Street in Tel Aviv, lawmakers Naama Lazimi and Gilad Kariv of the Labor party shout at police to refrain from pushing the demonstrators, who the lawmakers argue are nonviolent.

  The clashes follow the blocking of an intersection on Begin Street by protesters who splintered off from the weekly anti-government protest on Kaplan Street, which thousands attend every Saturday night. The police arrested 5 for ‘disturbing the peace’.  It’s very interesting that of  all the people in the mobs that broke into 2 army bases last week including some government ministers and Knesset members, not a single person was arrested   

• Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is feeling more emboldened to act against Iran after US President Joe Biden dropped out of the 2024 election, according to a report in the Telegraph that cites a senior Israeli official.

  The official tells the British newspaper that Biden was seeking to “restrain” Netanyahu while he was still in the race, and had “told him not to respond too harshly to Iran’s attacks.”

  “And Iran knew this, which is why they exploited the situation to attack Israel,” adds the official, who says the US president will now do what he “believes is right.”

  The official continues: “His true agenda is to support Israel fully. And he has done so for decades. Netanyahu knows this, which is why he’s being more bold and feels confident that he can attack Israel’s enemies and still have the full support of the US,” he added.

  The official also says Biden’s decision to end his reelection bid is a “big game changer” in the region because Iran planned to exploit his campaign.

  A different senior Israeli official quoted in the report says Biden wants a ceasefire.

  “That is how he wants to leave his term. The conversation they (Biden and Netanyahu) held two days ago was tense,” the official adds, echoing other recent reporting on the phone call. Link

• “Israel Is Only Thinking About Revenge; New Target Is Sinwar” 
  Interview with Gershon Baskin

“I believe only one thing could change the game’s rules. That could be finding and killing Hamas leader Yehya Sinwar or other senior Hamas leaders.”

We had scheduled an interview with Israeli political activist Gershon Baskin on July 30. After the approximately 40-minute interview, I thought, “This is undoubtedly the most striking sentence.” Twenty-four hours later, news came that the head of Hamas’ Political Bureau Chief, Ismael Haniyeh, had been killed in Tehran, Iran, and chaos ensued. This was not just the death of a charismatic leader. It also meant an increase in the question marks regarding when the Gaza War, which had left nearly 40,000 Palestinians dead over 300 long days, would end.

Some of you know Gershon Baskin as Israel’s senior hostage negotiator, some as a journalist, some as an opponent, some as an activist, and some as a researcher on the Israel-Palestine peace process. He had played a mediating role in the release process of Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit, who had been held by Hamas for over five years, in 2011.

Following the latest assassination news, the region became even more chaotic. In this exceptionally long period, which usually seems relatively short, we reached out several more times to learn his perspective on new developments. Baskin says the chance of a ceasefire is now very slim. Israelis have yet to grasp the seriousness of recent events fully, but there is still a possibility for peace. He harshly criticizes Netanyahu. The interview starts right here.

“If Rabin’s Efforts Had Succeeded, We Wouldn’t Be at This Point Today”

We are discussing assassinations. I will undoubtedly ask about the latest assassination and its effects, but can we start from a different angle?

Let’s begin…

I will mention a possibility. If former Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin had not been assassinated in 1995, could Israel be a different country today? After all, Rabin targeted the radical right-wing of his time, which is comparable to the current government. If Israel had been led by someone like Rabin instead of the extreme right-wing government in recent years, would events have reached this point? Or is this a naive question?

We could be in a completely different situation. Of course, the outcome of such a historical game is unknown. We cannot predict what Rabin would have done had he lived. However, he was on the path to making peace with the Palestinians. Had he succeeded, we would be in a situation very different from today. The winners of the Rabin assassination are the people currently sitting in the Israeli government.

Gershon Baskin has been researching the Israel-Palestine conflict and the peace process for years. Before October 7, he worked on peace initiatives between Israelis and Palestinians for about a year. Baskin describes himself as a social and political entrepreneur and serves as the Middle East Director at the International Communities Organization (ICO). / Photo: Tamir Kalifa, The New York Times

“Ceasefire Chances Decreased, Netanyahu’s Term Extended”

Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was killed in an assassination in Tehran, Iran, and Fuat Shukr, a senior Hezbollah figure, was killed in an assassination in Beirut, Lebanon. Let’s discuss another possibility. Has the chance of a ceasefire for the Gaza War become extremely difficult now?

The chances of a ceasefire were already very slim before the assassinations. But now, this possibility has decreased.

So, conversely, the likelihood of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu staying in power has increased…

Yes. Following the assassinations in Lebanon and especially Iran, Netanyahu, whose public image had declined, will rise in the polls. Both situations could have severe consequences. These recent events will bring many casualties. Israel is currently awaiting military responses from Hezbollah, Hamas, and Iran. Possible retaliation could target the West Bank, East Jerusalem, Gaza and Lebanon.

“Israel Is Only Thinking About Revenge, New Target Is Sinwar”

Are Israelis currently aware of how serious the situation is?

Let me rephrase your question. Do Israelis realize how crazy our situation is? For days, we have been expecting a coordinated Iranian-Hezbollah-Hamas retaliation attack against Israel. Tensions are rising. Moreover, this situation is happening by Israel’s own choice. We have over 300 days of war experience. Israel’s working method is straightforward: take as much revenge as possible, destroy as much of Gaza as possible, kill all fighters with little regard for civilians, and carry out tactical assassinations that change nothing on a strategic level.

It was like this in the past, too, right? I mean, this path is not new for Israel…

Yes, Israel’s targeted assassination policy, used for many years, is Israel’s way of operating in this war as well. Whether it’s Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, Iran, Syria, or wherever else… In my view, Netanyahu’s latest game is that the war in Gaza will not end as long as Hamas’ Gaza Strip leader, Yahya Sinwar, is alive.

You mentioned this when we first spoke. So now, you say that one of the four prominent names for Hamas leadership after Haniyeh is currently on the target list?

Yes. Sinwar is currently the primary target. And it doesn’t matter how many Palestinians are killed to reach him. It doesn’t matter how many hostages in Israel are killed, either. According to Netanyahu, they are expendable. They have been sacrificed and continue to be sacrificed every day. What we all need to understand is that these policies are being carried out by Netanyahu and his gangster ministers and advisors, who constantly push him to escalate tensions and kill more. We all need to understand that there are other options as well.

What are these options?

One option is to make a deal and bring the hostages home. There is the option of knowing that the war on the Israel-Lebanon border will end on the same day the war in Gaza ends. There is the option of working with the international community — the US, UK, France, and others — to effectively implement UN Security Council Resolution 1701 or find another reliable diplomatic solution. There is the option of working towards formalizing a regional defence alliance with Israel’s Arab neighbours. This alliance emerged on April 14. This regional defence alliance would include normalization steps with Saudi Arabia in exchange for ending the occupation and allowing the Palestinian people to determine their fate. The regional agreement would encompass security, self-determination for Palestinians, mutual recognition, stability, economic development, cross-border regional cooperation, national pride, and human dignity. These options are real. However, none of them will be considered unless we rid ourselves of our war criminal prime minister.

“The Reason We Haven’t Gotten Rid of Netanyahu Is Our Political System”

Why has the opposition still not managed to overthrow Netanyahu? Why can’t Israel rid itself of Bibism?

The main reason is the structure of our political system. Netanyahu enjoys a majority in the Knesset with 64 seats out of 120. To replace Netanyahu, form a new government, or go to elections requires a coalition member to vote against the coalition in a confidence vote or in a vote to dissolve the Knesset and go to elections. And since Netanyahu is held hostage by the more extreme elements in his government, he gives them everything they want. No reason exists for anyone in the coalition to vote against the alliance. That’s why it’s not easy to overthrow the government. It might be possible regarding the law for the conscription of ultra-Orthodox because there is no agreement on this, and there is significant public pressure to conscript young ultra-Orthodox due to the war. However, the Knesset is now on a three-month recess, the longest in the last 19 or 20 years of this war, which is incredible!

“The Opposition Doesn’t Inspire Confidence in Voters, No Mass Protests on the Streets”

Okay, these are concrete and numerical data. I want you to expand your perspective more subjectively. In one of your articles, you examined why Gantz, Lapid, and Eisenkot have yet to emerge as leaders and described them as so-called leaders. What is the reason for this? Has Israeli politics become doomed to empty slogans?

Yes, I think so. Today, no leaders in the Israeli political arena offer any vision or hope for tomorrow. Lapid, Gantz, and Eisenkot are saying more or less the same things as Netanyahu. The only difference is that they are less corrupt and more credible than Netanyahu. However, this is not enough to rally the public around them. No one presents a vision of a secure Israel living peacefully with its neighbours. No one is using the word peace. No one is talking about negotiations. No one is mentioning the two-state solution discussed globally. All they talk about is defeating Hamas. Therefore, they are all on the same page regarding where they want to take Israel in the future. And that’s why the masses are not supporting them. There aren’t a million Israelis protesting against the government on the streets. There are only a few hundred thousand supporting the hostage families, calling for a ceasefire, and demanding elections. The majority of Israelis still have not taken to the streets.

“What to Expect from Someone Describes Himself as the Greatest Jewish Leader Since Moses?”

Recently, I spoke with Yossi Alpher, a former advisor to Barak. Even though he doesn’t support Netanyahu, he described him as the most intelligent leader in Israel and the world. When I spoke with former Israeli Foreign Minister Shlomo Ben-Ami, he told me that Netanyahu is a kind of prisoner of his far-right government. How would you describe him?

Yes, Netanyahu is intelligent. But I do not believe he is the most intelligent politician we have had. He is a good politician but needs to be a statesman. He is not a leader with a vision for Israel. He places his political interests above everyone else. Before October 7, Netanyahu described himself in private circles as the most outstanding Jewish leader since Moses. Still, he will be remembered in history as one of the worst leaders the Jewish people have ever had. He is a narcissist. He is the wrong person. He creates division and is most concerned with himself. He is corrupt and needs to be removed.

“The Palestinian Issue and the Lame Duck Period in the US”

How will the US elections determine the fate of the Gaza war? If Kamala Harris moves into the White House, would it be realistic to consider a two-state solution, or is even thinking about it a fantasy?

If Harris wins the election, the period between the elections and January 20, the new year, the outgoing president can do whatever he wants without political concerns. This was the time when Reagan recognized the PLO and when Obama allowed the UN Security Council resolution determining Israeli settlements in occupied territories as illegal to pass. If Kamala Harris wins and Biden is free to act and if he is a courageous leader, it would be the right time for the United States to recognize the state of Palestine. Kamala Harris would inherit a new American political position, not only supporting the two-state solution but also opening an embassy for the Palestinian state in Washington and an American embassy in Jerusalem or Ramallah, wherever they want. This would change the situation. If Trump wins, God knows what will happen. The man is unpredictable.

“Both Sides are Responsible for the Gaza War”

In your opinion, who is primarily responsible for the war reaching this point? Netanyahu or Hamas?

Both sides are responsible. Of course, Hamas initiated this war with acts of brutality and terrorism inside Israel on October 7. However, since October 8, Israel has been waging a war not just against Hamas but against all Gazans. Today, 2 million Gaza residents are homeless, and tens of thousands of people, primarily innocent civilians, are dead. There is no doubt that what Hamas did on October 7 constitutes war crimes and crimes against humanity. link

• A document by the Israel Defense Forces detailing the “Updated Scenario” in the event of an all-out war with Hezbollah was recently shared with northern mayors, The Times of Israel has learned.
  
  The document was shared as Israel braces for a threatened response by Iran and Hezbollah to the killings last week of Hezbollah’s military commander Fuad Shukr in an Israeli strike in Beirut and Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in a blast in Tehran for which Israel has not claimed responsibility.

  In the event of war with Hezbollah, the document envisages a potential three-day power outage in some cities; breakdowns in water supply that could last days; a disconnection of landlines for up to eight hours and cellphone communications for up to 24 hours; and brief local disruptions to radio and internet.

  Some 40% of the nation’s workforce may be unable to work for the duration of the conflict, and service providers from outside affected areas may become unavailable throughout, according to the document.

  The security establishment, The Times of Israel has learned, assesses that Israel could face an unprecedented attack with hundreds of rockets, carrying warheads ranging from payloads of 50 kilograms — like the one that hit Majdal Shams, killing 12 children at a soccer field — to 10 times that.

  Hezbollah would be expected to prioritize targeting IDF facilities, then infrastructure, and then civilian targets, though that could change. It would be expected to aim at targets far to the south of Haifa, including Tel Aviv, possibly forcing the evacuation of large numbers of people to Jerusalem and to the south.

  The evacuees would be housed in hotels, some of which are already housing numerous displaced Israelis from the north. If hotels in the Jerusalem area are full up, the evacuees would be accommodated in schools in the city.

  Plans are being made for tent cities in the south, including in areas such as Timna, north of Eilat, and Eshkol Park in the Negev. The model for these is similar to that of the tents set up by Arcadi Gaydamak on Nitzanim Beach in 2006, for citizens evacuated from the north during the Second Lebanon War, and in 2007 at Yarkon Park for Sderot residents.

  According to senior IDF sources, existing protective measures — notably including safe rooms — are extremely effective against missiles, including those of Hezbollah. Furthermore, according to the sources, the Home Front Command and local authorities are properly prepared for the scenario.

  At the same time, “the reality for the other side will be far worse, to put it mildly,” one security official told The Times of Israel.

  In the event of a major attack from the north, cities such as Sderot, Ofakim and Netivot would ironically become relatively safe places as regards Hezbollah missile strikes; cities in the south that were targeted in October 2023 would thus become cities of refuge in August 2024.

  Yair Maayan, mayor of the southern city of Arad, last week encouraged residents of the north to consider evacuating to his quiet city, “and anybody who wants to, can also stay.” 

 

The Region and the World

•    Israel is braced for potential attacks by Iran and Hezbollah in the coming days, and assesses that they could come from “several fronts,” Channel 12 reports.

  It says the Israeli security establishment is on “peak alert” and that members of a US-led international coalition aimed at thwarting such attacks are braced to try and deter and intercept them.

  Israel’s leadership has been holding discussions on how Israel would respond to such attacks, including as regards “a readiness for an entry into all-out war in this context.”

  As things stand, Home Front Command instructions to the public are unchanged. If something changes, the IDF has stressed, the public will immediately be told.

  The TV report notes that today’s edition of Iran’s Kayhan pro-regime newspaper, in its editorial, warned that, in contrast to Iran’s almost completely thwarted April attack on Israel, its attack this time would target areas deep inside Israel, such as Tel Aviv and Haifa, strategic centers and the homes of Israeli officials.

  The TV report also notes that Shi’ite militias in Iraq are threatening to strike at both Israel and US targets.

  While the report notes that Iran has already impacted Israel by prompting the cancellation of flights by numerous foreign airlines and by inducing concern among Israelis over an imminent attack, it says the killing, blamed on Israel, of Hamas’s Ismail Haniyeh at an IRGC-run guesthouse in the heart of Tehran early Wednesday has left the regime feeling “deeply penetrated” and “completely exposed” to Israeli intelligence.
  
  

• Iran has rejected Arab diplomats’ calls for restraint in an anticipated attack on Israel, people familiar with the dialogue tell The Wall Street Journal.

  Iran says it doesn’t care if its response to the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh last week in Tehran, which it blames on Israel, will lead to war, the unnamed sources say. Israel has not admitted involvement in Haniyeh’s assassination.

Personal Stories

  

The poison machine against Izhar Shay: "You brought a massacre upon us and killed your son"

Izhar Shay's political views have been familiar to the Israeli public since his days as a minister. Now he reveals that he is facing a poison machine on social networks after criticizing the performance of Israel's Prime Minister. Among the responses are threats against his family members, joy over his son's fall in battle - and statements that he is to blame for his death.

"They wrote to me that they would come to kill my remaining children"

Former Minister Izhar Shay, who lost his son Staff Sergeant Yaron Uri Shay z"l, a fighter in the Nahal Reconnaissance Unit who fell in battle on October 7th, was a guest last night (Saturday) on the "Avri and Shriki" program. During the show, he addressed the harsh responses he has been receiving online recently - including being accused of massacre and killing his son.

"Tell me, you psychopathic idiot, haven't you done enough damage? You brought a massacre upon us and killed your son, isn't it better that you shut up already? That you say sorry and commit harakiri?" This was written in response to a critical tweet he published on X (formerly Twitter). "This response is because I dared to express harsh criticism of the Prime Minister of Israel, in strong language that I think is completely appropriate, not with curses," Shay explained. When asked if this wasn't an Iranian bot, he replied that he had conducted a check and it was a real person, "I use technology and entities that track down people of this kind. I'll soon reach his identity, I've already reached several people who wished death upon me and my children, someone who wrote to me that he knows my address and will come to kill the rest of my children who are still alive," he shared.

"I leave responses from such people to appeal to my many friends on the right, whose choice I oppose but respect their right to choose this Prime Minister as well. These people first and foremost harm you, the liberal and conservative right, and cast a shadow over an entire camp. Unfortunately, they are the result of a poison machine that has been operating here for many years and causes anyone who criticizes the Prime Minister to automatically be considered divisive and inciting. They go after bereaved parents, parents of hostages, evacuees from the north and south. All boundaries have been breached because there's an identity between a well-oiled poison machine, slanderous and divisive, and the cold and narrow interests of a Prime Minister who has never passed criticism - and here's the result."

Shay then addressed those people who threaten him and his family members and said: "I want to tell that honorable gentleman who wrote this message and all the various threateners. I'm not committing harakiri, I'm going to fight you and with me are many other good people on the right, center, and left. We'll fight those slanderous and evil-hearted people who go after bereaved families and wish death upon me and my children, who express joy that my heroic son was killed in a heroic battle. It won't help you - we will find you, publish your names and fight you. They are currently proud of their actions, we need to return them to the holes they came from. This is a vocal minority that casts a stain on the right-wing camp in Israel."  link  For years, I have called Netanyahu "The Great Divider". Throughout his political career, he has pushed the idea that there those who are with him and everyone else is the enemy. He began by using the term 'left' and 'leftist' derogatorily and even associating leftist with enemies of the state and terror organizations. And none of it was done naively. He knew very well that his followers, especially the cult-like ones would take all his said to the next steps: first with verbal abuse and then physical abuse. And we have seen all of that very clearly in social media and in real life. At demonstrations against the government, it is common place to see Netanyahu supporters around verbally abusing the peaceful demonstrators and too many occasions of physical attacks against the peaceful demonstrators. It is virtually unheard of to see the opposite - leftist physically attacking right wing demonstrators. In public he states that he is against all political violence but basically gives his supporters a wink that it's alright. This wink turns to him pushing those same attackers into positions of power in the Likud party and the government ministries and corporations. That is his way of rewarding the verbal and physical violence of his followers. It is no surprise that Izhar Shay is experiencing this abuse personally. He is a former minister in a Netanyahu government, someone who worked directly with Netanyahu. Until Shay wrote his opinion piece, Netanyahu didn't even acknowledge that Shay's son was killed fighting on October 7. He claimed that he didn't know. I can believe that because Netanyahu has chosen not to know about so many things that happened on and before October 7. He didn't make any condolence visits to any of the families of the victims of October 7, nor did he make phone calls to most. He has chosen to remain in his tower, claiming he is responsible for the safety and security of Israel and its citizens, while at the same time, refusing to take any responsibility for what happened on October 7 and all that led up to it. Back to the abuse. Netanyahu has been against all the demonstrations on behalf of the hostages since the beginning of the war. He didn't want to negative publicity or the pressure and the return of the hostages was not a primary goal of the war. It took months and months of demonstrations and outpouring of support for the hostages and their families before they became one of the primary goals of the war, and that never would have happened without the demonstrations and noise. But because he didn't want any of it, his cronies followed his lead and made a very concentrated effort tot turn the issue of the hostages from a National imperative into a political issue and his supporters began a campaign of calling them leftists, anti government and believe it or not, Hamas supporters. It has reached the truly unbelievable point that these same supporters curse hostages who have been brought back (in the November deal or the very few who were rescued), calling them the worst curses imaginable and saying that it is a shame that they were brought back, that they should have stayed in Gaza as Hamas whores or should have been killed and that they rest of the hostages should be left there to die. These are no one off occurrences. I have witnessed and been on the receiving side of this vitriol being called Hamas supporters and being told that what we are doing (demonstrating for the hostages) is spitting in the face of all the soldiers fighting in Gaza. This is the result of  'the Great Divider' Netanyahu and his many years of making anyone who speaks against him an enemy of the State.

Acronyms and Glossary

COGAT - Coordination of Government Activities in the Territories

ICC - International Criminal Court in the Hague

IJC - International Court of Justice in the Hague

MDA - Magen David Adom - Israel Ambulance Corp

PA - Palestinian Authority - President Mahmud Abbas, aka Abu Mazen

PMO- Prime Minister's Office

UAV - Unmanned Aerial vehicle, Drone. Could be used for surveillance and reconnaissance, or be weaponized with missiles or contain explosives for 'suicide' explosion mission

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