🎗️Lonny's War Update- October 312, 2023 - August 13, 2024 🎗️

  

🎗️Day 312 that 115 of our hostages in Hamas captivity
**There is nothing more important than getting them home! NOTHING!**

“I’ve never met them,

But I miss them. 

I’ve never met them,

but I think of them every second. 

I’ve never met them,

but they are my family. 

BRING THEM HOME NOW!!!”

Mor Korngold, whose brother Tal Shoham's is held captive in Gaza, writes to him:
“Weeks without joy in my life
Weeks I don't sleep at night
Weeks I don't work
Weeks feeling isolated from my friends
Weeks of thinking of ways to keep the family above water
Weeks of sadness
Weeks of pain

It's been 45 weeks that my older brother, my role model, the most important person in my life, has been held captive by Hamas.

Another holiday without him, another sad day and the world continues to move on.”

#BringThemHomeNow #TurnTheHorrorIntoHope

There is no victory until all of the hostages are home!

‎אין נצחון עד שכל החטופים בבית

Red Alerts - Missile, Rocket, Drone (UAV - unmanned aerial vehicles), and Terror Attacks and Death Announcements

*3:10am- north- rockets - Matat 

*10:15am - north - hostile aircraft - Margaliot, Kiryat Shemona, Manara, Kfar Blum, Beit Hillel, Kfar Giladi, Kfar Yuval, Metulla, Maayan Baruch, Misgav Am, Tel Hai
*4:15pm - Center - 2 long range rockets launched from Gaza, one hit in the water on the coast around Tel Aviv area, the second failed to go beyond Gaza. This is the first time in over 2 months that rockets have been launched from Gaza to Tel Aviv area

Hostage Updates 

• The IDF says it cannot confirm or deny claims made by the military wing of Hamas this evening that members of the terror group assigned to guard Israeli hostages killed and wounded captives.

  The spokesman for the Al Qassam Brigades, Hudhaifa Kahlout — known by the nom de guerre Abu Obeida, claimed in a statement issued on Telegram that Hamas guards in two separate incidents killed a hostage and seriously wounded two others. They also stated that they are investigating the incidents 

  “At this stage, we do not have any intelligence that allows us to refute or confirm the claims of Hamas,” the IDF says. Full article Normally, Hamas’ statements like this always need to be taken with a larger grain of salt.  However, thos is the first time they have ever said they were investigating the incident which leads me to believe that it, unfortunately is true. The he blood of more hostages are directly on the hands of Netanyahu as he is the person responsible first for consequences of October 7 and secondly for preventing any deal to be made to bring the hostages home  

• Mediators in Gaza ceasefire talks have reportedly said Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar is demanding that Israel halt its military operations in the Strip as a precondition for the Palestinian terror group participating in this week’s talks, which Hamas has said publicly it will not attend.

  The Wall Street Journal report acknowledges, however, that Jerusalem is unlikely to accept that demand as it seeks to pressure Hamas to compromise by relentlessly pursuing its stated war goal of eliminating the group’s military and governing capabilities. link  This had been Sinwar's demand prior to May when it appeared that Hamas dropped this demand which then led to Biden's proposal based on Netanyahu's proposal. Hamas has not brought up this previous demand until today and if they hold tough on this demand, the negotiations are doomed to total failure if they even get started.

Gaza 

•  A postman who carried messages from Mohammed Shabaneh, the head of the Rafah Brigade from the Qassam Brigades, was the one who disclosed the location of the meeting between Hamas military leader Mohammed Deif, and Ra'fat Salama, the head of the Khan Yunis Brigade, during which Deif was assassinated, Al-Arabiya reported.  
  The informant comes from a prominent family in Rafah and provided the location of the meeting, which led to the immediate assassination.

Northern Israel - Lebanon/Hizbollah/Syria

• Hezbollah has entirely evacuated its headquarters in the Beirut suburb of Dahieh as a precaution against a possible Israeli response to the Lebanese terror group’s threatened revenge attack on Israel, Lebanese media reported Monday.

  Outlet Al Joumhouria reported that Hezbollah has moved its entire operation — personnel, computers, and other equipment — out of Beirut, including its political wing.

  The move came as Hezbollah is threatening to make Israel pay for the recent killing of the terror group’s top military commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut. The report indicated Hezbollah is “preparing for the worst” with regard to Israel’s response to an attack by the Iran-backed group.  Nabih Berri, the speaker of Lebanon’s parliament and a Hezbollah ally, stated Monday that “the response is inevitable,” adding that “revenge is a dish best served cold.”

  In an interview with the Lebanese newspaper Al-Jumhuriya, Berri remarked that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s decision to carry out these assassinations does not reflect “the behavior of someone who wants to reach a ceasefire.” He did not rule out the possibility of a large-scale war between Hezbollah and Israel as long as Netanyahu remains in power, but noted that Iran-backed groups in the region “are managing the battle in a calculated manner.”

  Commenting on Lebanese domestic affairs, Berri said that the conflict with Israel should serve as an incentive to expedite consultations for the election of a new president to strengthen the internal front. The country has now been without an effective president for over two years, with 12 rounds of voting in parliament failing to elect a new leader. Full article 

West Bank and Jerusalem and Terror attacks within Israel

•    The IDF confirms that the Palestinian gunman who shot and wounded an Israeli man and two Palestinians in the West Bank city of Qalqilya this evening was killed by troops.

  The terrorist opened fire at an Israeli man near a car repair shop in the city, wounding him seriously. Another two Palestinians next to him were also wounded, according to the military, although their conditions are not known.

  Troops then launched a pursuit after the terrorist, killing him a short while later just outside Qalqilya, the IDF says.

  The Palestinian Authority health ministry names the gunman as Tariq Daoud, 18. It says his body is being held by Israeli authorities. It has been reported that Daoud was one of the Palestinian prisoners released in the hostage deal last November 

Politics and the War (general news)

•  International credit ratings agency Fitch announced last night that it has downgraded Israel’s long-term foreign currency issuer default rating to A from A+, with a negative outlook. Fitch’s rating cut for Israel follows a similar move by the two other major international credit ratings agencies - Moody’s and S&P.

  In its announcement, Fitch said, "The downgrade to 'A' reflects the impact of the continuation of the war in Gaza, heightened geopolitical risks and military operations on multiple fronts. Public finances have been hit and we project a budget deficit of 7.8% of GDP in 2024 and debt to remain above to 70% of GDP in the medium term. In addition, World Bank Governance Indicators are likely to deteriorate, weighing on Israel's credit profile."  full article  Our less than brilliant Finance Minister, Smotrich calls it 'natural' amid war. He doesn't see it as a big deal because he is the worst Finance Minister Israel has ever had.

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The Region and the World

•  "The attack is approaching"? Paradoxes in foreign reports - and the interests behind them

For almost two weeks, the entire country has been waiting for one thing: Iran and Hezbollah's response to the assassinations in Beirut and Tehran • The world is also following the reports with peak alertness, but they often contradict each other • From "severe response" to "limited attack" that won't lead to war, through "Hezbollah's dilemma" whether to join and to Sinwar's pressure, who on one hand hopes for a ceasefire - and on the other hand waits for an attack on Israel • This is how it looks since the two dramatic assassinations in Beirut and Tehran, Israel has been on high alert for two weeks awaiting a possible response from Iran and Hezbollah. The world is also waiting anxiously, and foreign media report daily on the nature of the expected attack, its timing - and its connection to Hamas's interests. These reports are often published in major media outlets worldwide, but in the past month, we have repeatedly seen that the published details are inaccurate, or in some cases of different reports, even contradictory. 

**This is how it looks**

The pair of assassinations took place within 7 particularly dramatic hours that began in the early evening hours of July 30 with an explosion that shook the Dahieh neighborhood in Beirut, and continued with the dramatic assassination 7 hours later of the head of Hamas's political bureau, Ismail Haniyeh. In Iran, they rushed to declare an appropriate response against Israel that would be carried out - and since then the "date exchange" continues. Hours after the two assassinations, the New York Times reported "from three Iranian sources" that Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei ordered to attack Israel directly in response to Haniyeh's assassination. Khamenei ordered the Revolutionary Guards and army commanders to prepare for defense as well - in case the war expands and Israel and the US attack Iran.

**Iran, Hezbollah - or both together? Who will attack**

On August 1, the French news agency AFP reported from "a senior commander in the pro-Iranian militias in Iraq" that Iran will lead the attack on Israel, "in cooperation with factions from Iraq, Yemen and Syria." The next day, the Washington Post reported that Khamenei participated in a meeting held in Tehran between senior Revolutionary Guards officials and senior terrorist organization officials from Iraq, Lebanon and others to discuss ways to respond to Israel following Haniyeh's assassination. On the other hand, on August 8, CNN reported that the US already estimates that Hezbollah is closer to carrying out an attack on Israel and is likely to do so in the coming days independently and without Iran, which appears to still be planning its response.

**Limited, or will lead to total war: What will the attack look like?**

A big question that looms is how large this attack will be, if it indeed takes place: On August 3, the American news network CBS reported from a spokesperson on behalf of Iran's UN representation that Hezbollah may choose "farther and deeper targets in Israel, both civilian and military." On the same day, various sources in the Wall Street Journal estimated that the attack by Iran and Hezbollah this time is expected to be more severe than in April. The next day, on August 4, an Al Jazeera network reporter reported that he "understands from conversations with sources in Tehran and Beirut that the axis of resistance told mediators that it will do whatever is necessary to carry out an effective response attack - no matter what the consequences, even if it means a wide-scale war." On the same day, a senior official in the pro-Iranian militias in Iraq already told the BBC that "this time only a small group of senior commanders are involved and have an idea about Iran and Hezbollah's response plan against Israel, as well as other factors in the axis of resistance. Until the last moments, only they will know the plan. Last time more people were involved and had an idea about the form of the attack. This time it will be different."

But what is this "different response"? Contrary to the threatening reports, a Lebanese source familiar with the contacts between Iran and Hezbollah told the Washington Post just yesterday that this time in Tehran they are actually preparing for "a limited response only." The reason for this, according to him, is the fear that a large action by Iran will provide justification for Israel and the US to attack Iran's nuclear program "and substantially neutralize its nuclear deterrence."

One of the reasons for the change in direction in the nature of the response can be found in reports of disagreements in the Iranian leadership. According to reports, the new president Masoud Pazhakian pressured the Supreme Leader last week to refrain from attacking Israel, and instead choose sites in "foreign countries." The reason for the lack of clarity lies in the psychological warfare against Israel, as an Iranian source described it yesterday to the Financial Times: "Iran has launched a psychological warfare campaign to stretch Israel's capabilities to the limit and prevent calm among the residents of the occupied territories." 

**When will it be? The timing of the attack - and Hamas's interest**

Two weeks have passed since that dramatic night in the skies of the Middle East, and since then one of the big questions looming is when will this much-talked-about response take place. A series of Western countries rushed to ask their citizens to leave Lebanon as soon as possible, which raised speculation that the attack is approaching and coming. In the previous attack in mid-April, Iran actually gave advance notice - but now the Revolutionary Guards and Hezbollah are engaging in psychological warfare and essentially letting Israel, and the whole world, wait.

A US official said on August 3 to the Wall Street Journal that unlike the Iranian attack in April, it is likely that this time it will be harder to know exactly when Iran will carry out the attack against Israel. He said that last time "they wanted everyone to know about it, but this time that's not the case." Just days after the assassinations, US officials estimated that Iran and its proxies would attack within two days, a report that received extensive coverage, but this too did not materialize. On August 6, the Wall Street Journal also reported that in the West they identify that Iran is moving missile launchers, which indicates that the attack will be "in the coming days." Yesterday, Fox News reported from "sources in the Middle East" that the said attack "will take place within 24 hours."

One of the prominent assessments last week was that Iran is waiting for the end of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation conference in Saudi Arabia, a conference that ended last Thursday. Thus, it turned out that the widely reported assessment did not materialize - and then the "bets" moved to next Thursday. As we have seen in this war, all arenas are connected to each other and this time, it seems, Hamas has a connection to the timing of the attack. The reason many expect the response to be after Thursday is the new summit expected to take place in Doha, the capital of Qatar, with the participation of Israel and mediators in an attempt to initiate a new hostage deal. Hamas declared, contrary to estimates that "it wants a ceasefire," that it will not send a delegation to the summit, and the assessment is that Sinwar - is actually waiting for an attack on Israel, and yearns for a "convergence of arenas."  link After Sinwar stated that he would not be sending anyone to the negotiations on Thursday, commentators speculated that he was waiting for the joint Iran, Hizbollah attack so as to be in a stronger position if the attack cost Israel dearly. On the other hand, other commentators said last night that Sinwar was eager for a ceasefire. And today, he said that he wouldn't send anyone unless Israel ceased all warfare in Gaza as a precondition for negotiations, a demand that was supposedly tabled back in May. Today, there was some kind of announcement out of Tehran that they were waiting to see if the cease fire/hostage negotiations talks would bear fruit and they would only attack directly if those negotiations broke down. That could be interpreted as an attack was now on indefinite hold. However, if the negotiations on Thursday don't even start due to Sinwar's renewed demand of a cease fire as a precondition, which Netanyahu will never agree, then all bets are off. Regarding all of the commentators speculation about Sinwar, my brother has always said that the only one who knows what Sinwar is thinking is Sinwar and he doesn't tell anyone (other than his very close and very small group of confidants), so their speculations are not worth anything.

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Personal Stories

"They haven't returned to the path of life": The struggle of massacre survivors at parties in the Gaza envelope to receive mental health treatment

Mental health organizations assisting party survivors, initiated by the Safe Heart Association and NATAL, warn that many of them are facing the end of mental health treatment provided by the state, despite ongoing need • In an urgent letter to the Ministry of Health, they call for extending the treatment period to at least two years • "Some witnessed acts of massacre, rape, and abuse of their friends. There are survivors who haven't left their homes for 10 months"

On the morning of October 7, thousands of young men and women participated in three parties held in the Gaza envelope. What began as a celebration quickly turned into one of the most traumatic events in Israel's history. About 364 party attendees were murdered, 44 were kidnapped to Gaza, and about 4,000 survived the inferno. 10 months after the massacre, many survivors are still dealing with severe mental health consequences and need ongoing psychological treatment. However, mental health assistance from the state is about to end for some of them, raising great concern among professionals and aid organizations.

The survivors experienced unbearable events. Some hid in bushes or under fallen friends, others played dead for long hours, and some ran through fields for hours. Many witnessed acts of massacre and abuse of their friends. A coalition of organizations assisting survivors, including "Safe Heart", "NATAL", "AMCHA", "ELAH Center" and "Medical Care", sent an urgent letter to the Ministry of Health. In their letter to the Director General of the Ministry of Health, Moshe Bar Siman Tov, they describe worrying trends among survivors, including:

* High mental distress and severe post-traumatic symptoms

* Emotional flooding and significant sleep difficulties

* Loss of appetite or overeating

* Significant difficulty returning to functioning and routine

* Drastic reduction in leaving the house

* Feelings of insecurity in their homes and in Israel in general

* Stopping life trajectory - difficulties returning to work and integrating into academia

* Significant increase in addictions and use of psychiatric medications

* Anger outbursts and avoidant behavior

* Feelings of distrust towards authorities and anger towards the system

The organizations emphasize that there are survivors who still, despite 10 months passing, have not left their homes. They warn that these individuals "are at a critical point in time where, in the absence of appropriate therapeutic response, they may deteriorate and lose the ability to return to the path of life".

area of the Nova Festival after the massacre

Current state of mental health treatment:

Currently, survivors receive mental health treatment through the "Anxiety Protocol", a joint program of the Ministry of Health and the National Insurance Institute. Under this protocol, the state provides up to 36 mental health treatments regardless of disability recognition. This is a significant expansion from the regular protocol, which usually provides only 12 treatments.

However, the organizations warn that even this number is not enough. In their letter, they write: "Many survivors have already reached the limit of 36 treatments and even exceed it, and the rest are expected to find themselves facing a broken trough in the near future".

The organizations call for urgent intervention to find a solution that will allow the continuation of mental health treatments for at least two years. They emphasize the need for treatment regardless of disability recognition and without unnecessary bureaucracy. They recommend a simpler process for approving continued treatments beyond the first 36 sessions. According to their proposal, this process would include a recommendation from a therapist from the bodies recognized by the "Anxiety Protocol", without the need for additional bureaucracy.

area of the Nova Festival after the massacre

In addition, the organizations point to another problem: many survivors need psychiatric accompaniment, but the current reimbursement for psychiatric treatment through the anxiety protocol stands at only 197 NIS. This amount does not cover the real cost of an hour of psychiatric treatment, which stands at about 1,200-1,800 NIS.

The Ministry of Health responded to the demand of mental health organizations, writing: "During Operation Iron Swords, the anxiety treatment protocol was expanded to 36 treatments. The Ministry of Health opened dedicated mental health clinics, among others for party survivors, according to eligibility from the National Insurance or the Ministry of Defense, in addition to the significant reinforcement of all services in the mental health system in the health funds".

However, the organizations argue that this solution is not sufficient. They warn that patients may stop treatment midway and be forced to wait in long queues to receive treatment in public clinics. This could harm the continuity of care essential to their recovery.

link

Acronyms and Glossary

COGAT - Coordination of Government Activities in the Territories

ICC - International Criminal Court in the Hague

IJC - International Court of Justice in the Hague

MDA - Magen David Adom - Israel Ambulance Corp

PA - Palestinian Authority - President Mahmud Abbas, aka Abu Mazen

PMO- Prime Minister's Office

UAV - Unmanned Aerial vehicle, Drone. Could be used for surveillance and reconnaissance, or be weaponized with missiles or contain explosives for 'suicide' explosion mission

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