🎗️Lonny's War Update- October 430, 2023 - December 9, 2024 🎗️

  

🎗️Day 430 that 100 of our hostages in Hamas captivity
**There is nothing more important than getting them home! NOTHING!**

“I’ve never met them,
But I miss them. 
I’ve never met them,
but I think of them every second. 
I’ve never met them,
but they are my family. 
BRING THEM HOME NOW!!!”


We’re waiting for you, all of you.
A deal is the only way to bring
all the hostages home- the murdered for burial and the living for rehabilitation.

#BringThemHomeNow #TurnTheHorrorIntoHope

There is no victory until all of the hostages are home!
‎אין נצחון עד שכל החטופים בבית


Red Alerts - Missile, Rocket, Drone (UAV - unmanned aerial vehicles), and Terror Attacks and Death Announcements

*10:20am - The IDF says the drone that struck a residential building in the southern city of Yavne this morning was launched from Yemen.

The military says it is investigating why sirens were not activated.There were no injuries in the attack, but damage was caused to several apartments.  video of the drone hitting the building in Yavne


A building in Yavne that was hit by a drone on December 9, 2024 (Fire and Rescue Service)
7 Soldiers were killed today - 4 in Lebanon and 3 in Gaza

IDF says four reservists killed in ‘operational accident’ in south Lebanon

Top row, from left: Maj. (res.) Evgeny Zinershain, Master Sgt. (res.) Binyamin Destaw Negose. Bottom row, from left: Captain (res.) Sagi Ya'akov Rubinshtein, Sgt. First Class. (res.) Erez Ben Efraim
MAY THEIR MEMORIES BE A REVOLUTION

Four Israeli reserve soldiers were killed in a suspected “operational accident” in southern Lebanon yesterday afternoon, the military announces.

The slain troops are named as:

Maj. (res.) Evgeny Zinershain, 43, from Zichron Yaakov.

Cpt. (res.) Sagi Ya’akov Rubinshtein, 31, from Kibbutz Lavi.

Master Sgt. (res.) Binyamin Destaw Negose, 28, from Beit Shemesh.

Sgt. First Class. (res.) Erez Ben Efraim, 25, from Ramat Gan.

They all served with the 226th Reserve Paratroopers Brigade’s 9263rd Battalion. Zinershain was a company commander and Rubinshtein was a platoon commander.

According to an initial IDF probe, the soldiers were scanning a tunnel in the Labbouneh area of southern Lebanon when a cache of Hezbollah weapons and explosives stored there detonated.

The cause of the blast is under further investigation, though the military suspects that it was not a Hezbollah booby trap, but rather due to explosives previously placed by Israeli forces there.

Cleared for Publication: 3 Givati Soldiers Killed in Jabalia

Sergeant First Class (SFC) Ido Zano (20) from Yehud-Monosson, SFC Barak Daniel Halpern (19) from Kiryat Ono, and Corporal Omri Cohen (19) from Ashdod fell in battle during an IDF raid in northern Gaza. A total of 12 soldiers were injured in the incident, two of them seriously.

The IDF Spokesperson announced that three soldiers from the Shaked Battalion of the Givati Brigade were killed today (Monday) in Jabalia, in northern Gaza. Among the injured were two soldiers in critical condition: a reservist from the battalion and a soldier from the "Sky Rider" Unit of the Artillery Corps. They were evacuated by helicopter to the hospital.

The names of the fallen, as released by the IDF Spokesperson, are:

  • SFC Ido Zano, 20, from Yehud-Monosson, a combat medic in the battalion.
  • SFC Barak Daniel Halpern, 19, from Kiryat Ono, a squad commander in the battalion.
  • Corporal Omri Cohen, 19, from Ashdod, a combat soldier in the battalion.

    From right to left: Barak Daniel Halpern, Omri Cohen and Ido Zeno 

    MAY THEIR MEMORIES BE A REVOLUTION

Details of the initial investigation into the incident will be shared with the bereaved families before being made public.



Hostage Updates 

  • יום הולדת 80 לחטוף אברהם מונדר
    Today would have been the 80th Birthday of Abaham Mundar

    Avraham Munder killed in Hamas captivity; wife, daughter, grandson freed in Nov. deal

    78-year-old’s son was murdered during October 7 onslaught on Kibbutz Nir Oz

    On August 20, 2024, Kibbutz Nir Oz announced Hamas hostage Avraham Munder was killed during captivity in Gaza. Below are the initial reports of his capture:

    Avraham Munder, 78, was taken captive from Kibbutz Nir Oz on October 7 by Hamas terrorists who attacked the community, killing and kidnapping dozens.

    On that morning, Munder was forced to kneel on the ground as his wife, Ruti Munder, also 78, their daughter, Keren Munder, 54 and her son, Ohad, then 8, were abducted and driven away.

    The Munders from Kibbutz Nir Oz — grandfather Avraham Munder is still held captive in Gaza while his grandson, Ohad and wife Ruti, were released after 49 days in captivity after the family was taken hostage on October 7, 2023 (Courtesy)

    Keren and Ohad had been visiting from Kfar Saba for the holiday weekend.

    Ruti, Keren and Ohad were released on November 24 as part of a temporary ceasefire deal brokered by Qatar and the United States between Hamas and Israel.

    Only upon their release did they learn that Avraham had not been killed, but captured. They heard that other captives had seen Avraham and that “he was okay, but that was almost 20 days ago,” said his nephew, Barak Ben Ezra to The Times of Israel.

    Avraham and Ruti’s son, Roi Munder, who also lived at Nir Oz, was killed on October 7.

    His mother and sister had already learned about his death from a radio broadcast that one of their captors was listening to.

    When Roi was buried on October 22, there was no immediate family member present at the funeral or to sit shiva, the seven-day Jewish mourning period, for him.

    Upon learning that her husband was among the remaining hostages, Ruti has joined the rest of her family in keeping vigil for his release.

    Avraham is not in good health, walks with a cane and has bad eyesight.

    Ruti, Keren and Ohad are “not good, they’re tired,” said niece and nephew, Hadar Horesh and Barak Ben Ezra, during a march for the hostages. “And they don’t know what’s happening to Avraham.” link

    Kibbutz Nir Oz announces hostage Avraham Munder killed in Gaza captivity
    "With profound sorrow, Kibbutz Nir Oz announces the murder of Avraham Munder while held hostage in Gaza, after enduring months of physical and mental torture," the Kibbutz's statement read. 
    The IDF said it had retrieved the body of Avraham Munder, along with that of five other hostages, from the Khan Yunis area in Gaza on Monday overnight in a joint operation with the Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency).  

    IDF: The Hostages Held in a Tunnel in Khan Yunis Were Executed by the Terrorists

    The IDF has presented its investigation into the deaths of Avraham Mundar, Nadav Poplavol, Yagav Buchstab, Yoram Metzger, Chaim Peri, and Alex Danczig during an Air Force strike to their families. The findings reveal that the Hamas terrorists who held the hostages shot them at close range. This information was cleared for publication today (Wednesday).

    The investigation, conducted over the past months by the Southern Command, Military Intelligence, and the Hostage Affairs Directorate led by Maj. Gen. (Res.) Nitzan Alon, determined that the six hostages were murdered by their captors shortly after the airstrike in the area. Additionally, the report states that the terrorists subsequently died from the effects of the strike and exposure to toxic gases.

    According to the findings, the hostages were held alongside others in a complex referred to by the IDF as "The Kingdom," an underground facility constructed by Hamas in the Khan Yunis area. The site also reportedly served as a refuge for senior Hamas officials during the initial months of the war. link and full story in Hebrew


  • I find it hard to believe that Hamas is willing to accept Netanyahu's conditions that would cause Hamas to release hostages in exchange for a temporary ceasefire and the continued presence of IDF forces in Gaza. In such a situation, the blockade on the Strip remains and there is no guarantee that the war will end even after the partial release of the hostages. I am of course in favor of the release of every hostage and a ceasefire, even if it is temporary. But what needs to happen is an end to the war, an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, an end to the blockade on the Strip, and the release of all hostages in exchange for the release of Palestinian prisoners according to an agreed-upon formula. This is probably not possible as long as Netanyahu is a hostage to his coalition and as long as Trump does not oblige him to end the war. (Gershon Baskin, 12-9-2024)

  • The Hamas terror group has submitted a list of hostages it proposes to free in the first stage of a ceasefire deal with Israel in addition to a list of Palestinian security prisoners held by Israel that it wants released, the London-based pan-Arab news site Al-Araby Al-Jadeed reports.

    The report, citing a source close to the talks, says Israel is evaluating the list and could send a delegation to Cairo later today.

    Reports have said that the sides are working on a partial deal under which hostages in the “humanitarian” category would be freed in return for an extended ceasefire and the release of Palestinian prisoners.

    The humanitarian category includes elderly, children, women, ill and badly wounded hostages.  The number of living hostages in these groups is today understood to be fewer than the 33 that was previously discussed in talks over past months.

    The report also says that Hamas is proposing to release four hostages with US citizenship, some of whom do not not fall under the humanitarian category, in an apparent gesture to incoming US President Donald Trump, who has threatened to punish those responsible if the hostages aren’t released before his inauguration.

    For more than a year, waves of negotiations have stalled and failed to reach another agreement to return the hostages still held in Gaza, after 105 of them were released in a weeklong truce in late November 2023. Israel believes that 96 of the 251 hostages kidnapped on October 7 are still in Gaza, including the bodies of at least 34 confirmed dead by the IDF. Over the past 14 months, IDF troops have rescued eight hostages and recovered the bodies of 38.

Families of the hostages have been told that optimistic reports of serious progress in negotiations are not correct.

“In recent hours reports in the Arab press regarding negotiations to bring the hostages home, these reports, that have also been published in Israel, are not correct,” says a statement sent to the families by the government coordinator for the hostage talks.

It comes after the Qatari-owned, London-based al-Araby al-Jadeed news outlet reported that Hamas had sent negotiators a list of hostages it was willing to release and the names of Palestinian security prisoners it wanted in return.

“We continue to take all measures to secure the return of the hostages and take great care to keep this information secured. We urge you to continue to only rely on information coming from authorized sources,” the statement says.


Gaza and the South

  •  IDF says it temporarily closed Gaza aid route earlier today after mortar fire on troops

    The IDF says it temporarily closed a route leading from the Kerem Shalom crossing to the humanitarian zone in the Gaza Strip, used to deliver aid to Palestinians, after troops came under mortar fire from the area.

    Several mortar shells were fired at troops from an area adjacent to the “humanitarian corridor.”

    Following the attack, the IDF says the area was considered an active combat zone and the route was closed, as troops worked to eliminate the threat.

    As a result, aid deliveries were temporarily delayed, the military says.

    The IDF says that the operatives behind the mortar fire were killed, and the route was reopened a short while later for the delivery of aid to Gaza.

  • Documents shared by Israeli officials with the New York Times have shown that at least 24 people employed in UNRWA schools in the Gaza Strip were members of Gaza terrorist groups, including Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, the Times reports.

    Citing data shared by the IDF and the Foreign Ministry, the New York Times reports that many of the terror operatives employed in UNRWA schools held senior positions, such as principal or vice principal, while others were teachers or school counselors. Most of those with ties to Hamas were said to be directly linked to the Al-Qassam Brigades, the terror group’s military wing.

    The paper notes that although it could not independently verify the documents, which it says it asked for, after Israel accused UNRWA of employing staff with ties to Hamas, they were similar to other Hamas records previously verified by the news outlet.

    One of the documents seized by the IDF in Gaza reveals Hamas’s plans to use school buildings as a place to store weapons, the report states, while another describes the enclave’s schools as “the best obstacles to protect the resistance [Hamas]” in a war against Israel.

    The documents also reveal that several of the school administrators remained employed by UNRWA even after Israel warned the agency that they were tied to various terror groups, the New York Times adds.

Asked whether he would pressure Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to end the war in Gaza, where Israel has been battling Hamas, Trump says: “Yeah. Sure.”

“I want him to end it, but you have to have a victory,” he says  Full article. This is very bad. There was a certain degree of hope that trump would put the necessary pressure on Netanyahu to force a hostage deal that would include ending the war. He bought Netanyahu’s BS and will enable him to keep the war going until he will declare his phony ‘total victory’ which will never exist especially since he never defined it. He will only declare his victory if he gets his judicial overthrow which would cancel his trials, get the Knesset to successfully pass the unbelievably unjust law that would prevent an official state commission of inquiry and when he believes he can fight off all calls for new elections. Only when he personally feels safe politically will he be willing to save the lives of the hostages, if any of them are still alive

 

Northern Israel - Lebanon/Hizbollah/Syria

  • Footage shows Syrian rebels in Damascus vowing: ‘From here to Jerusalem. We’re coming for Jerusalem. Patience, people of Gaza’

    Footage from a mosque in Damascus aired by Hebrew media shows Syrian rebels vowing to march on Jerusalem, a day after a stunning opposition advance took over the capital, ending the Assad family’s five decades of iron rule.

    “This is the land of Islam, this is Damascus, the Muslim stronghold. From here to Jerusalem. We’re coming for Jerusalem. Patience, people of Gaza, patience,” vows an Islamist rebel spokesman surrounded by a group of gunmen who respond with cries of “Allahu akbar! (“God is greatest” in Arabic)

    It is not clear which rebel group the fighters represent.

    The leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the strongest rebel group, has tried to reassure minorities that he will not interfere with them and the international community that he opposes Islamist attacks abroad. In Aleppo, which the rebels captured a week ago, there have not been reports of reprisals.

    The IDF seized control of the buffer zone between Israel and Syria, yesterday, in what it said was a defensive and temporary measure, given the chaos in the country following the fall of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad.  link While it is not clear which rebel group made this statement, as there are many different rebel groups involved in the Syrian revolution, statements like this show just how unstable the situation is and that there are far more unknowns from the knowns. We always need to remember that before the Second Gulf War and the capture and execution of Sadam Hussein, for decades, Iran and Iraq were involved in their own war against each other and barely bothered the rest of the world. Killing Sadam opened a huge Pandora's box. It is far too early to know if Syria is a new Pandora's box or a chance for a better situation in this area. Netanyahu has been quick to take credit for the new situation in Syria saying that he created the atmosphere with Lebanon/Hizbollah for this to happen. As I said yesterday, he is always quick to take credit for anything that appears good, but if this all turns on itself and presents a very different picture, Netanyahu will never turn around and say that he takes any responsibility.

  • Footage posted to social media purports to show large Israeli airstrikes targeting the Mezzeh airbase near the Syrian capital of Damascus this afternoon.

    The videos show heavy bombardment of the airbase. 

    Today, Israel has carried out numerous strikes in Syria, taking out weaponry that Israel fears could fall into the hands of hostile forces.

    The strikes have reportedly targeted arms caches and air defense systems, as well as production capabilities.

    Following the fall of the Assad regime, the IDF has said that it is tracking advanced weapons in Syria and working to prevent them from reaching Hezbollah or any other hostile elements that could threaten Israel.  video

  • IDF continuing to bolster defenses on Syrian border, including with new barrier

    The IDF says it is continuing to bolster its defenses on the border with Syria in the Golan Heights, including with a new barrier.

    The construction of the barrier, which resembles a trench to prevent the crossing of vehicles, began several months ago.

    The military says the name of the barrier project is “New East,” and continues to build it.  video

  • The Lebanese army says one person was killed and four soldiers wounded in an Israeli strike on a car in the south of the country, where a fragile ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel came into force on November 27.

    “The Israeli enemy targeted a car near the Saf al-Hawa/Bint Jbeil military checkpoint, killing a citizen and lightly wounding four soldiers,” the army says in a statement.

    There is no immediate comment from the IDF.

  • Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar confirms Israel struck suspected chemical weapons sites and long-range rockets in Syria in order to prevent them from falling into the hands of hostile actors.

    Sa’ar says that “the only interest we have is the security of Israel and its citizens.”

    “That’s why we attacked strategic weapons systems, like, for example, remaining chemical weapons, or long-range missiles and rockets, in order that they will not fall in the hands of extremists.

    He spoke after Syrian rebels reached Damascus over the weekend and overthrew President Bashar al-Assad’s government following nearly 14 years of civil war.

    Syria agreed to give up its chemical weapons stockpile in 2013, after the government was accused of launching an attack near Damascus that killed hundreds of people. But it is widely believed to have kept some of the weapons and was accused of using them again in subsequent years.

  • Lebanon’s Hezbollah views events in Syria as a “major, dangerous and new transformation,” a senior Hezbollah politician says, the Iran-backed terror group’s first reaction to the toppling of its ally, Bashar al-Assad.

    Hezbollah played a major part propping up Assad through years of war in Syria, before bringing its fighters back to Lebanon over the last year to fight in a bruising war with Israel — a redeployment that weakened Syrian government lines.

    His downfall has stripped Hezbollah of a vital ally along Lebanon’s eastern border. Assad-ruled Syria long served as a vital conduit for Iran to supply weapons to the Shi’ite Islamist Hezbollah.

    “What is happening in Syria is a major, dangerous, and new transformation, and how and why what happened requires an evaluation, and the evaluation is not done on the podiums,” Hezbollah lawmaker Hassan Fadlallah says in a statement.

    Syrian armed groups led by the Sunni Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham swept into Damascus on Sunday, seizing the capital and forcing Assad to leave for Russia.  LINK The fact that senior Hizbollah terrorists/politicians are saying things like this show how damaging the overthrow in Syria following their losses in the war with Israel has been to this terror organization. This may be a real turning point for Lebanon as well as Syria.

  • More than 4,000 Syrian army soldiers have crossed into Iraq since rebel forces seized Damascus and overthrew the government of Bashar al-Assad, a militia official in western Iraq says.

    The official with the Anbar Tribal Mobilization Forces says that the soldiers had turned over their weapons, ammunition and armored vehicles and would be housed in a camp. He did not say where the camp was located.

    Another security official says that the governor of the Syrian province of Hasakeh had come to the border late Sunday night with a convoy of Syrian army soldiers who wanted to cross into Iraq, and they were allowed in via the Qaim crossing.

    Both officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly about the matter.

    The Iraqi government has close ties with Iran and used to be one of Assad’s primary backers but Baghdad has taken a neutral position on the advance of the insurgents and Assad’s downfall.

  • Hundreds of Syrian refugees gather at two border crossings in southern Turkey, eagerly anticipating their return home, following the fall of President Bashar al-Assad’s government.


    Syrian families arrive to cross into Syria from Turkey at the Cilvegozu border gate, near the town of Antakya, southern Turkey, December 9, 2024. (AP Photo/Metin Yoksu)

    Many arrived at the Cilvegozu and Oncupinar border gates at daybreak, draped in blankets and coats. Some camped by the barriers of the border crossing, warming themselves with makeshift fires or resting on the cold ground. The border crossings correspond to the Bab al-Hawa and Bab al-Salameh gates on the Syrian side of the border.

    Among those waiting at Cilvegozu was 28-year-old Muhammed Zin who voiced excitement at the prospect of returning to his homeland. He fled Damascus in 2016 and has been living and working in Istanbul.

    “Assad was shooting us, killing us,” he tells the Associated Press. “I will return to Syria now. Thank God, the war is over,” he says.

    Seer Ali, 18, who left Damascus six years ago, had been working in the nearby city of Gaziantep to support his mother and siblings back home.

    Syrians wait to cross into Syria from Turkey at the Cilvegozu border gate, near the town of Antakya, southern Turkey, on December 9, 2024. (AP Photo/Metin Yoksu)

    “We are very happy, very happy. Not just me, but everyone, all of us Syrians here are very happy,” he said. “Everyone will return, no one will stay here. They will all go to their families.”



    Developments in Syria favor Israel, but the tide could turn on a dime

  • Commentary: Rebels near Israel’s border are local villagers with past ties to Israel, while Kurdish militias disrupt Iran’s arms route to Lebanon; with US curbing Erdoğan’s ambitions, Israel readies for potential threats, including jihadists nearing Golan border

    On Saturday, Syrian rebels announced their capture of Quneitra province, located near Israel’s border. The area is currently controlled by local villagers who have had connections with Israel, particularly as Israel provided medical aid to the wounded during the civil war.

    However, there is a looming threat that Sunni jihadists from the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) movement could seize the area from the villagers. As a precaution, Israel is preparing for any such scenario, including conducting a large-scale military exercise Friday in northern Jordan Valley and southern Golan Heights. These jihadists have operated in the region before, and Israel, with the help of local villagers, had previously curbed their influence.
    The jihadists have also captured Palmyra in central Syria, where an unusual Israeli-attributed strike last month reportedly killed at least 82 pro-Iran militia fighters and Hezbollah commanders. In this new reality, pro-Iranian militias are unlikely to establish themselves in the area, and Hezbollah operatives will find it challenging to command them—another apparent strategic advantage for Israel.
    Meanwhile, behind the scenes, surprising developments are unfolding. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the Turkish military are supporting the two main rebel groups. However, the Biden administration has quietly joined the effort, not only to counter Erdoğan’s ambitions to dominate the Kurdish enclave in northern Syria but also—more crucially—to wrest control of the Euphrates River strongholds from Iran-loyal Shia militias.
    In the area of Al-Bukamal, a critical border crossing between Iraq and Syria, lies the primary base of Iranian-aligned Iraqi and Afghan Shia militias. This location is also a key point in the land corridor through which Iranian supplies flow via Iraq into Syria and Lebanon.
    The Kurdish-Arab SDF militia (Syrian Democratic Forces, primarily Kurdish but also including fighters from Arab tribes in Syria) has captured this area and another strategic location to the north in Deir ez-Zor.
    Operating under the protection of 900 U.S. troops stationed at bases east of the Euphrates River, the SDF's control of Al-Bukamal and Deir ez-Zor effectively severs the overland supply route from Iran through Iraq and Syria into Lebanon. This represents a significant blow to Hezbollah, the Syrian regime and the Tehran-led Shia axis.
    The question remains whether the U.S.-backed Kurdish militia can maintain control over the areas it has seized. Another critical unknown is whether they have managed to capture the Imam Khomeini camp, established by Iran in Al-Bukamal as the central base for its loyal Shia militias.
    It is likely that many of the Shia militias from this camp have rushed to aid the Assad regime in Hama and Homs, potentially forming a defensive line around Damascus. As a result, the forces left in Al-Bukamal may have been insufficient, allowing the Kurds to take control.
    For Israel, it is crucial to influence the U.S. to continue supporting the Kurds and to ensure American forces remain in the region. At the same time, Israel seeks U.S. leverage on Erdoğan to prevent jihadist rebels from advancing toward the Golan Heights.
    If this situation holds, it represents a major strategic gain for Israel’s security. Another positive development for Israel is the rebels’ control over southern Syria in the Daraa region, near southwestern Syria.

Israel's past aid and aspiration for control by locals

The Daraa region, which borders Israel and Jordan, is home to the main border crossing between the two countries in the city of Ramtha. Most notably, the rebels who have taken control of this area are locals—Sunni villagers and Druze villagers from the neighboring Sweida province. According to foreign reports, Israel maintained strong ties with these locals during the height of the Syrian Civil War.

Between 2015 and 2018, Israel provided them with both humanitarian and military aid, establishing a hospital and facilitating medical treatment within its borders. It is likely these local groups remain disinclined to act against Israel—perhaps even the opposite.

Additionally, the Daraa region, particularly around Tel Harra and the mountainous areas near the capital of Jabal al-Druze, Sweida, hosts radar and intelligence facilities used not only by the Syrian military but also by Iran and Hezbollah. If the locals and Druze who now control the area maintain their hold, it is unlikely Iran or Hezbollah will gain a foothold there.

The locals are Sunni Muslims, while Hezbollah and Iran are Shia. Daraa is a staunch Sunni Muslim province, and Sweida to its east is a Druze stronghold. While the Druze previously refrained from openly rebelling against Assad’s regime, they now appear to have shifted course, ousting Syrian forces from Sweida’s provincial capital. The Druze in this area maintain strong ties with their counterparts in Israel.

Critically, those now in control of the region are not from the jihadist HTS movement but are locals who reportedly hold favorable sentiments toward Israel, which previously provided them with aid and, according to foreign reports, light arms to defend themselves against the Syrian regime.

This area was initially retaken by the Syrian regime under a Russian-Syrian agreement designed to end the civil war. The deal placed Russian military police in charge of restoring order and preventing attacks against Israel and local residents by Syrian forces.

5 View gallery
סוריה א-סווידא
Druze show support for rebels in Syria's Sweida
(Photo: SHADI AL DUBAISI / AFP)


עריקים ממשלת אסד
Defectors from Assad's army join rebels in Aleppo
(Photo: AP Photo/Omar Albam)

This arrangement was effective, as was the Russian-supervised air activity, which largely prevented clashes between Israeli, Russian and Syrian air forces near the border. A joint operations center was established to coordinate and avoid air incidents in the Golan Heights border region.

However, recent global media reports indicate that Russian ground outposts in the area have been dismantled. Russian forces, including military police, have reportedly relocated to the large Russian base in Khmeimim, southeast of the city of Latakia.

The implications of this situation are significant: Russian forces are no longer overseeing the region, leaving control in the hands of local rebels, the majority of whom are not jihadists.

It’s important to note that in the Daraa region near Israel's border, there were—and still are—small pockets of Sunni jihadist rebels from the Jabhat al-Nusra organization, now part of a broader rebel coalition. These groups remain small and weak. While they have previously acted against Israel, local villagers have worked to restrain them, ensuring Israel continued its humanitarian aid. This appears to still be the case today.

However, the Daraa region poses its own challenges. If Sunni rebels advance dangerously close to Damascus, it could trigger a mass exodus of refugees toward the Israeli border, similar to events of the past decade. Back then, tens of thousands of refugees camped near Israel's border fence in the Golan Heights, prompting Israel to prepare to block any attempt to breach its territory—whether to escape danger or to harm Israel under rebel influence.

 

Currently, there are no visible signs of refugees or armed jihadist groups near the Golan border. However, the threat persists. Developments in Syria are unfolding so rapidly that Israel must be ready for any potential scenario, even though the current situation near the Golan border appears relatively stable and positive from Israel’s perspective.

Shifting between allies ahead of brutal battles

Israel’s concerns about Syrian strategic weaponry falling into rebel hands have significantly subsided. According to foreign reports, Israel targeted Syria's main military-industrial complex near the town of al-Safira, southeast of Aleppo. This site stored missiles and production equipment, both Iranian and Syrian, and supplied weapons to Hezbollah.

Reports indicate that Israel carried out multiple strikes in the area and likely issued warnings through covert channels to rebels not to seize the site. Indeed, the rebels have stayed away.

Other Syrian military-industrial facilities, influenced by Iran and used to arm Hezbollah, are located in western Syria along the coastal region dominated by the Alawite sect. The jihadist rebels have not moved westward toward this area, instead focusing on taking control of the main north-south highway, the M5, which links Aleppo, Hama, Homs and Damascus.

This highway runs through Syria’s Sunni Muslim heartland, where residents are largely supportive of the rebels, unlike the Alawite- and Shia-majority coastal region, which opposes them. That region is also home to Russian bases, which the rebels have so far neither dared nor intended to attack.

מורדים בסוריה בעיר חמה שנכבשה במסגרת הקרבות נגד צבא אסד
Rebel forces in Hama
(Photo: AP Photo/Ghaith Alsayed)

The jihadist HTS rebels are advancing along the M5 highway, targeting Homs, Syria's third-largest city with a predominantly Sunni Muslim population. Homs and Hama have been sites of massacres committed by Hafez al-Assad and his son Bashar, starting in the 1980s and continuing into the past decade during the civil war.

Chemical weapons were extensively used against these areas, fueling immense hatred toward Assad. This animosity has facilitated the rebels' rapid progress, facing little resistance. Homs is likely to fall within the next one to two days.

Large convoys of Shia and Alawite residents have been seen fleeing Homs, fearing the jihadists. The Assad regime is currently trying to stabilize a defensive line around the city with the help of Hezbollah and pro-Iranian Shia militias sent by Tehran to bolster the regime.

If the rebels succeed in capturing Homs and its surroundings, they are expected to sever the Alawite-Shia enclave around Latakia and Tartus from Assad’s remaining stronghold in Damascus. The battles over the routes connecting Damascus to Latakia and Tartus, particularly around al-Qusayr and western Homs, are anticipated to be among the most brutal of the conflict.

Israel's interest: A weak Assad, not a defeated one

Syria's elite 4th Division, commanded by Maher al-Assad, the brother of President Bashar al-Assad, is likely focusing its efforts on maintaining control over key enclaves: Damascus, the coastal strongholds of Latakia and Tartus and the vital routes connecting them. These areas would provide a base for potential counteroffensives in the future.

Currently, Syria seems to be approaching a scenario where Assad retains control over Damascus and the Latakia-Tartus enclave while battling for Homs and al-Qusayr to maintain vital territorial links between the two regions. Hezbollah has reportedly deployed fighters, likely from its elite Radwan Force, to support Assad’s defense of these strongholds.

For Israel, a weakened Assad controlling these enclaves serves its strategic interest. This situation keeps jihadist forces engaged in fighting Assad rather than advancing toward areas near Israel’s border, where local rebels maintain a tenuous presence.

Meanwhile, along the Syria-Turkey border, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has sent the secular Syrian National Army, loyal to Ankara, to dismantle the Kurdish autonomous region of Rojava in northeastern Syria. This region is under the protection of U.S. forces and American airpower.

Erdoğan's campaign included the use of explosive drone swarms but was reportedly curtailed after the Biden administration intervened with a firm "Don't." As a result, the advance eastward from Idlib toward the Kurdish-held areas with U.S. bases has stalled.

בסיס הצי הרוסי טרטוס בחופי הים התיכון של סוריה
The Russian Navy base in Tartus
(Photo: AFP PHOTO / PLANET LABS PBC)

This highlights the U.S.'s recent shift toward covert, behind-the-scenes action supported by credible military threats, achieving significant results. Currently, the U.S. and its Kurdish allies effectively control 40% of Syria’s territory in the northeast.

נזקי הלחימה ב אידליב סוריה
Destruction in Syria's northwestern Idlib province; Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
(Photo: OMAR HAJ KADOUR / AFP, Andrew Harnik / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / AFP)

Assad’s regime retains limited control over Homs and its two key enclaves, while Sunni and Druze locals have taken over the southern provinces of Daraa and Sweida near Israel’s border.

For now, this situation is relatively favorable for Israel. However, with both Iran and Turkey still active and unpredictable, rapid changes remain possible.

Following the October 7 attack last year, Israel must remain on high alert in the Golan Heights, focusing on intelligence and air defense to respond to any unforeseen developments in Syria. The situation is fluid, and the final outcome is far from decided. link

West Bank and Jerusalem and Terror attacks within Israel

  •     


Politics and the War (general news)

  •  Almost all of the members of the security cabinet have petitioned Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara to delay the start of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s testimony in his graft trial, given the recent fall of the Syrian regime and the ongoing war in Gaza.

    Ynet news reports that all ministers apart from Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer and Defense Minister Israel Katz have signed the letter, penned by Shas chair Aryeh Deri.

    “For over a year, Israel has been in an ongoing, multi-front security event, which, as is well known, began with the brutal massacre by Hamas terrorists,” on October 7, 2023, Deri reportedly writes to the attorney general.

    “In the past week alone, many significant events have occurred in the security and political arena, some of which are known to the general public and some of which are still classified. There is no doubt in my mind that this is a fateful time for the State of Israel, one of the most fateful times we have known.”

    He asserts that at this time, the prime minister should be focused entirely on “natural interests” and that giving testimony will block him from fulfilling that duty.

    Netanyahu is currently scheduled to begin his testimony in an underground room in the Tel Aviv District Court on Tuesday at 10 a.m.

    The opposition has accused him of trying to indefinitely push off his potentially damaging testimony. The testimony comes after a series of delays stemming from the war against Hamas in Gaza and, until last week, against Hezbollah in Lebanon.  link No matter what would be going on in the country and beyond, Netanyahu would look for any excuse to delay his trials. In the original agreement that Netanyahu signed, it was stated that he would be able to carry on affairs of state while on trial and that if he couldn't, he would temporarily step down from duties to complete the trial. Yet, he has refused to honor this court empowered agreement and instead makes every claim under the sun that he cannot continue with the trial because his 100% attention must be on affairs of state. He needs to be removed, have his trial go forward which is likely to find him guilty and could end up going to prison which would require him to resign.



    The Region and the World
    •    Iran has opened a direct line of communication with rebels in Syria’s new leadership since its ally Bashar al-Assad was ousted, a senior Iranian official tells Reuters, in an attempt to “prevent a hostile trajectory” between the countries.

      The lightning advance of a militia alliance spearheaded by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, a former al-Qaeda affiliate, marked one of the biggest turning points for the Middle East in generations. Assad’s fall as president removed a bastion from which Iran and Russia exercised influence across the Arab world.

      The senior official says Iran’s clerical rulers, facing the loss of an important ally in Damascus and the return of Donald Trump to the White House in January, were open to engaging with Syria’s new leaders.

      “This engagement is key to stabilize ties and avoiding further regional tensions,” he said.


    • Egypt condemns Israel’s “further occupation of Syrian lands” and views the Israeli military’s movement into a buffer zone as an attempt to enforce a new reality on the ground, it says in a foreign ministry statement

      Israel moved tanks over the border into the buffer zone with Syria, calling the move temporary, limited, and aimed at ensuring Israel’s security.

      Egypt and much of the international community consider Israel’s control over the Golan Heights, which it captured from Syria in the 1967 Six Day War, an occupation. Israel annexed the Heights in 1981, a move later recognized by the US.

    • More than 4,000 Syrian army soldiers have crossed into Iraq since rebel forces seized Damascus and overthrew the government of Bashar al-Assad, a militia official in western Iraq says.

      The official with the Anbar Tribal Mobilization Forces says that the soldiers had turned over their weapons, ammunition and armored vehicles and would be housed in a camp. He did not say where the camp was located.

      Another security official says that the governor of the Syrian province of Hasakeh had come to the border late Sunday night with a convoy of Syrian army soldiers who wanted to cross into Iraq, and they were allowed in via the Qaim crossing.

      Both officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly about the matter.

      The Iraqi government has close ties with Iran and used to be one of Assad’s primary backers but Baghdad has taken a neutral position on the advance of the insurgents and Assad’s downfall.



    Personal Stories
      
    Taken captive: Itzik Elgarat, shot in his hand by Hamas terrorists
    Elgarat, 69, called his brother from his Nir Oz safe room on the morning of October 7, saying, ‘This is the end’

    Itzik Elgarat, 69, was in his Kibbutz Nir Oz home on the morning of October 7 when Hamas terrorists attacked his home, shooting him through his safe room door, injuring him, and taking him captive.

    “I spoke to him at 10:30 in the morning,” said his brother Danny Elgarat, a former Ashdod police commander. “He was hysterical and hurt in the hand.”

    Itzik had gone to lock the safe room door when the terrorists shot at the door. Danny, his brother, was on the phone with him at the time and could hear yelling in the background.

    Itzik said, “Danny, this is the end, this is the end.”

    At 12:10, Danny Elgarat saw that his brother’s phone was located in Gaza.

    Danny went down to Nir Oz days later, where he described smelling the burning plastic throughout the kibbutz and seeing the ruins of his brother’s home, which had been vandalized and torn apart.

    Itzik Elgarat’s nephew, Ben Danzig, whose father Alex Danzig was also taken captive from Nir Oz, describes Itzik as a good man who likes to work with his hands.

    Itzik Elgarat has citizenship from Denmark and two children who live there.

    Danny Elgarat, whose brother Itzik Elgarat was taken hostage on October 7, says that he was informed by the military that Hamas claims his brother is no longer alive.

    “I met with our intelligence officers yesterday and as far as Hamas is concerned, my brother is not alive,” Danny tells Channel 12, referring to the army representatives assigned to the family.

    “In all the reports that Hamas sends, in all the intelligence that comes in, Itzik is not alive,” Danny says. “He was kidnapped alive, the hostage Yelena sat with him for a whole day and talked to him.”

    “The doctor who treated him gave us an accurate report of what treatment he received. He received really excellent care there, they saved his hand,” Danny says, without giving further details on how the information was received from the doctor.

    “We knew that on January 1 he moved from Khan Younis to Rafah. We know that he was in motion, that he was alive,” Danny says.

    “When we said that time was running out and we needed to bring them home, they thought we were just stressed and talking out of pain,” he says. “We were not just speaking out of pain.”

    Itzik Elgarat, 69, was in his Kibbutz Nir Oz home on the morning of October 7 when Hamas terrorists attacked his home, shooting him through his safe room door and injuring him, then taking him captive.  link

    Illustrative: Danny Elgarat, brother of hostage Itzik Elgarat, speaks at a weekly hostage families protest in Tel Aviv’s Hostages Square on June 29, 2024. (Adar Eyal/Hostages and Missing Families Forum)


    Dark Legacy - The Abandonment of October 7th Hostages




    PREFACE
    On the black Sabbath, the citizens of Israel were not only kidnapped by Hamas; they were also betrayed by their own prime minister. The man who led his country to its worst disaster refuses to step down and be held accountable.
    The self-proclaimed “Mr. Security” single-handedly enabled the funding and strengthening of the murderous organization Hamas but refuses to take responsibility as a true leader should. Sadly, Netanyahu is not a real leader. He cynically places his political survival over the lives of the people he swore to protect. Rather than making bold decisions to save his people, Netanyahu keeps choosing to save himself. Mr. Security has turned into Mr. Abandonment.
    Nine months have passed since Hamas' cruel abduction of innocent civilians, including infants and the elderly. Imagine the terror in the eyes of a mother as Hamas militants snatch her infant from her arms. Picture the elderly grandparents, their lives reduced to captivity. These are not mere statistics; they are our neighbors, our friends, our family. While the world watches with growing despair, Netanyahu, our nation's leader, has consistently failed to secure their release. His actions, or rather inactions, constitute a grave betrayal of the trust placed in him.
    This collection of essays was penned by hostages and grieving families, hostage survivors, leading statesmen, IDF and intelligence agencies’ leaders, academics, and other prominent figures in Israel and the diaspora. “Dark Legacy” lays bare the devastating consequences of Netanyahu's leadership. His prioritization of political expediency over the lives of our citizens is a stain on our nation's conscience.
    History will judge Netanyahu harshly. His legacy will be one of broken promises and a callous disregard for human life, as he ruthlessly pursued personal gain at the expense of his people. The son of a historian will go down in the annals of history as the one who abandoned Israeli citizens in captivity, in violation of the Israeli ethos.
    With every ticking second, the lives of our loved ones hang in the balance. We, the families who continue to fight to bring our loved ones home, will not rest or be silenced until this book has reached every home in Israel and many communities around the world. We will not rest or be silenced until every hostage is HOME!

     A Message to Mr. Abandonment, Benjamin Netanyahu From the families of the hostages.
    Benjamin Netanyahu, the man who led our country to the greatest disaster in its history, continues to add insult to injury as he insists on neglecting the citizens of his country hour by hour.
    The citizens who are now held hostage were abandoned years earlier when Netanyahu, the man entrusted with national security and leadership, funded and strengthened a murderous organization, refused to promote a political route out of the conflict, and repeatedly left the unstable security situation in the Negev unattended.
    The hostages, citizens of the State of Israel, were abandoned on the morning of October 7th - left to protect themselves and fend off the terrorist gangs funded by Netanyahu's direct orders. They are still being abandoned more than 9 months into this unfolding disaster due to Netanyahu's decision to prioritise his political survival, to avoid taking responsibility and making the difficult choices that need to be made to save the lives of his people.
        Time and again, the Prime Minister sabotages any chance of reaching a life-saving deal to release the kidnapped, sends our soldiers to die without a clear long-term military strategy and promotes his personal goals to be paid for with the blood of our sons and daughters. In doing so, he betrays all of his citizens, and especially those held in captivity, he betrays the nation's values, and deep commitment to its citizens; he abandons us all, betraying our body and soul.
    This continuous abandonment is driven by cynical considerations and unending cruelty. Benjamin Netanyahu is the sacrificer of Israel. The blood of our hostages is on his hands.
    He will be remembered in infamy, as a despicable leader who abandoned, betrayed and sacrificed the lives of his citizens for his own political survival. Cursed is the man and cursed is his legacy.

    Families for the rescue of hostages

    Acronyms and Glossary

    COGAT - Coordination of Government Activities in the Territories

    ICC - International Criminal Court in the Hague

    IJC - International Court of Justice in the Hague

    MDA - Magen David Adom - Israel Ambulance Corp

    PA - Palestinian Authority - President Mahmud Abbas, aka Abu Mazen

    PMO- Prime Minister's Office

    UAV - Unmanned Aerial vehicle, Drone. Could be used for surveillance and reconnaissance, or be weaponized with missiles or contain explosives for 'suicide' explosion mission

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