🎗️Lonny's War Update- October 441, 2023 - December 20, 2024 🎗️

  

🎗️Day 441 that 100 of our hostages in Hamas captivity
**There is nothing more important than getting them home! NOTHING!**

“I’ve never met them,

But I miss them. 

I’ve never met them,

but I think of them every second. 

I’ve never met them,

but they are my family. 

BRING THEM HOME NOW!!!”

We’re waiting for you, all of you.
A deal is the only way to bring
all the hostages home- the murdered for burial and the living for rehabilitation.

#BringThemHomeNow #TurnTheHorrorIntoHope

There is no victory until all of the hostages are home!

‎אין נצחון עד שכל החטופים בבית

Red Alerts - Missile, Rocket, Drone (UAV - unmanned aerial vehicles), and Terror Attacks and Death Announcements

*

Hostage Updates 

• THE STATE OF THE NEGOTIATIONS

  I don’t have any secret information. I have heard a little from the Egyptian side, nothing from Qatar, although I asked. All of my contacts in Hamas are all on radio silence and I don’t have hard information from the Israeli side either. I can assess, like all of you, from Israeli, Arab, American, and Turkish media regarding the negotiations.  I have the advantage of 18 years of negotiations with Hamas and with the Israeli official side to understand somewhat the nature of the negotiations,  but there has never been a situation like the one we are in and these negotiations are different from all previous negotiations. 

  From what I can assess:  there are still wide gaps to close. 

  These are the issues that I believe are not resolved:

  1. Hamas demand for an Israeli commitment – obligation – in writing to end the war. It seems there is agreement on Israeli redeployment within Gaza but out of populated areas with a number of specified points along the Philidephi corridor agreed to in the first phase. Nothing is agreed to regarding phase 2 on redeployment, Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and ending the war. 

  2. Hamas demand for free movement from the south to the north of Gaza without Israeli checkpoints. Israel has not yet agreed to this.  It is important to also remember that nothing remains of Gaza north of Gaza city. It has been totally wiped out by Israel. 

  3. The list of Palestinian prisoners to be released with the highest demand from Hamas being Marwan Barghouthi, Abdallah Barghouthi, Hassan Salameh, and Ahmed Saadat, plus many others serving life sentences. A few months ago, Hamas told me that there was agreement on the key for prisoner release – how many prisoners for each category of hostages. But Israel then demanded about 65 vetoes on the list which Hamas would not agree to. I understand that the Israel demand is now around 50 vetoes and Hamas still rejects it totally. There seems to be agreement that the hard-core prisoners would be sent to exile in Qatar or Turkey and perhaps Iran. 

  4. The list of hostages that Israel and the mediators demand from Hamas. Hamas says they need a full week of total ceasefire without Israeli flyovers to collect all of the information about the whereabout of the hostages and their condition. They don’t know where all of the hostages are, who is holding them and what is their condition. Hamas does not have control over all of Gaza and there might be hostages buried underneath the rubble of buildings bombed by Israel along with several thousands of Palestinians whose whereabouts are unknown. 

  
  

  Providing the list of hostages is very important because no one really knows if the Hamas leadership outside of Gaza can enforce an agreement on Hamas inside of Gaza.  There is no full command and control of Hamas inside of Gaza so this kind of information is a sort of test of the ability of Hamas to deliver.  It seems that Hamas is also aware that they cannot continue to govern Gaza after the war, but there is no progress on the decision of who will rule Gaza and that is because of the refusal of Israel to consider various options, the inability of Abbas and the Palestinian Authority to be acceptable to the people of Gaza, and the refusal of the Arab states to force Abbas to step aside.  This is a crucial issue that will prevent the exit of Israel from Gaza with the possibility of the Israeli settler movement to move into Gaza and to start to build new Israeli settlements there. This must be prevented by anyone concerned with the future of Israel and Palestine.  (Gershon Baskin, December 19, 2024)
  
  

  
  
• The Burned Garden is Revived: The Place Where the Children of Nir Oz Wait for Their Fathers to Return

A few months before October 7, Sagai Dekel Chen from Nir Oz came to renovate Gan Tut, the legendary kindergarten in the kibbutz. On that fateful Saturday, the kindergarten was completely burned down; some of the children were murdered, kidnapped, or lost family members. Sagai himself was kidnapped to Gaza. Now, in the newly reopened 

kindergarten in Kiryat Gat, everyone is waiting for Ariel Bibas to return. Gali, Sagai's three-year-old daughter, is also waiting for her father to come back.

"Every day, it’s a new struggle for her to go to kindergarten," says Avital Dekel Chen about her three-year-old daughter, Gali. Her husband, Sagai Dekel Chen, was kidnapped from Kibbutz Nir Oz on October 7 and has been held in captivity for 440 days. "Gali goes through posters of her father and hugs herself as if hugging him. I pray for the day Sagai comes home and at 4:00 PM goes to pick up Gali from the kindergarten."

Avital Dekal Chen and her daughters. "Every day is a new struggle to go to kindergarten"

"Gali, at three years old, doesn’t understand why her father isn’t here," Avital continues. "She’s a child who fears her father might have abandoned her, and it’s extremely hard to tell her that her father is in the hands of terrorists. We must not accept separating parents from such young children who experience immense pain and difficulty every day. Gali misses her father deeply, wants to hug him, and to be hugged back by him."

The renovated kindergarten that was inaugurated in Kiryat Gat (Photo: Irit Menshauf) 

A Distant and Painful Dream

The kindergarten Avital speaks of was completely burned down on that cursed Saturday in Nir Oz. This past September, it reopened in Kiryat Gat, in the neighborhood where many members of the kibbutz community relocated.

A few months before October 7, when no one could imagine such a tragedy, Sagai Dekel Chen and his friend Elad Elimelech from the UK-JNF organization came to renovate Gan Tut in Nir Oz. Among the children in the kindergarten were Ariel Bibas, who was kidnapped to Gaza, and the twins Shahar and Arbel Simantov, of blessed memory, who were murdered on October 7.

The twins Shahar and Arbel Siman Tov with their brother Omer, their father Yonatan Vamen, Tamar Kedem Siman Tov. An entire family murdered

"Saagai, together with Tamar Kedem Simantov, of blessed memory, the mother of Shahar and Arbel, planned the kindergarten enlisted the entire community—students, seniors, and, of course, parents and children—to work in the yard and kindergarten with great cooperation and joy. Today, that feels like a distant and painful dream," recounts Irit Menasheoff, the early childhood director of Kibbutz Nir Oz.

The burnt garden after October 7 (Photo: Dan Shapira)

On October 7, Sagai and Ariel were kidnapped, the Simantov twins were murdered along with their entire family, and the joyful kindergarten was completely destroyed by fire. Part of the Nir Oz community moved to Carmei Gat, a neighborhood in Kiryat Gat. Irit reopened Gan Tut there, where Sagai’s daughter, Gali; Netta, the daughter of the late Tamir Adar z"l; and Ron, the daughter of the late Dolev Yehud, z"l were enrolled.

"In recent months, the children of Nir Oz have gone through many changes and not a few upheavals. It was important to us that the transition to the new kindergarten went smoothly both physically and emotionally. To help with the process, we brought to the kindergarten in Carmei Gat objects from the original kindergarten in Nir Oz that survived the fire set by the terrorists, such as the wooden ship that we placed in the yard And the bench that had to be cleaned and polished," says Irit. 

Sagi Dekel Chen with his daughter Gali. "A girl who fears that her father has abandoned her"

Therapeutic Sandboxes and Close Psychological Support

Among the children in the garden is Netta, the daughter of Tamir Adar, who was kidnapped to Gaza while severely injured and murdered in captivity. Netta is the great-granddaughter of Yaffa Adar, who was also kidnapped and released after 49 days.

"On October 7, Netta was just three and a half years old; next month, she will already celebrate her fifth birthday," says Hadass Adar, Tamir’s widow. "Almost a third of her life has passed since that Saturday. She remembers a lot from the kibbutz, which we visited for the first time two months ago. She misses it greatly but doesn’t ask questions about the previous kindergarten.

The therapeutic sandbox in the renovated Tut Garden (Photo: Irit Menshauf)

"Sometimes, she asks about Ema and Yuli, twins her age who returned from captivity with their mother, Sharon, but didn’t come back to live with the community in Carmei Gat. Their father, David, is still held captive."

"The new kindergarten has been adapted to the children’s new reality and needs. It includes appropriate content and professional support, such as therapeutic sandboxes and close psychological guidance. Looking at this group of children—each with what they’ve been through, what they’ve lost—is unfathomable," she added.

Ariel Bibas in aGan Tut with a New Year's greeting

About Life After That Saturday

She recounts: "We cannot close the circle and begin our recovery until we hold a funeral for Tamir, until all the hostages return home, both the living and the dead. The children go to kindergarten and school, some adults have returned to work, and there is an illusion of normalcy—but we truly cannot move forward until all the members of our community return."

Bringing Joy to the Children

Recently, Elad Elimelech returned to renovate Gan Tut on behalf of the UK-JNF organization, where he had worked alongside Saagai until October 7. Together, they had led the educational DIY project, aimed at providing work skills to young people with no prior experience. This time, Elad came with nine trainees from the "Meitarim Lachish" pre-army preparatory program at Kibbutz Nahal Oz.

Nahal Oz Preparatory students help in setting up the kindergarten (Photo: Dan Shapira)

"About two years ago, we came to the kindergarten under Sagai's leadership to completely renovate the yard. We built a soccer field for the kids, a treehouse, a small play workshop, and a wooden ship. That same ship survived the fire on October 7, and we were privileged to bring it intact to the new garden in Carmei Gat. We are excited to have returned to renovate the reopened kindergarten, but every moment we felt Sagai's absence—he was so present in these activities," Elad shared.

survived the fire. The Magen Tut ship in Nir Oz (Photo: Irit Manshahoff)

Ido Levavi (18), one of the volunteers, said: "When we arrived, the yard was completely empty, and we wanted to give the children more. The activity was meaningful for us too—we understood what Nir Oz had been, and we were able to do something to bring joy to the kibbutz children."

Another volunteer, Elisheva Nicholas (18), recounted: "We built decks, brought in sand, decorated with stones, and created planting beds where the children could grow plants. The children were so excited to see us, and I was honored to meet them. Despite their young age, I learned so much from them."

"The new kindergarten was adapted to the new situation and needs of the children" (Photo: Irit Menshauf)

 

The renovated Strawberry Garden (photo: Irit Manshahoff)

Hadas Adar, who also joined the volunteer activity, said: "The wonderful Elad came with the volunteers for a long workday. The children and parents joined them, and there was a pleasant, shared atmosphere. Our involvement in building and creating gave the activity special meaning and turned it into an experience. It turned out beautifully."

Irit, the early childhood director, concluded: "We are grateful to everyone who helped us along the way and hope to finally succeed in providing the children with the proper support in these challenging days."  link

• The US Central Command says its forces conducted an airstrike earlier today that killed ISIS leader Abu Yusif in the Deir Ezzor province in eastern Syria.

  One other ISIS operative was also killed in the strike, COGAT says.

  “As stated before, the United States — working with allies and partners in the region — will not allow ISIS to take advantage of the current situation in Syria and reconstitute. ISIS has the intent to break out of detention the over 8,000 ISIS operatives currently being held in facilities in Syria. We will aggressively target these leaders and operatives, including those trying to conduct operations external to Syria,” says CENTCOM Commander Gen. Michael Erik Kurilla.

  
  

Gaza and the South

• IDF razes miles of Hamas tunnels in north Gaza, seizes equipment stolen in Oct. 7 onslaught
  

  The IDF says it has demolished close to 5 miles worth of Hamas tunnels in northern Gaza’s Beit Lahiya.

  Three tunnels were scanned and later destroyed by the elite Yahalom unit and other combat engineers, amid an ongoing operation against the Palestinian terror group in the area led by the Kfir Infantry Brigade.

  The military says that in one of the tunnels troops located IDF equipment that was stolen by Hamas terrorists during its onslaught of October 7, 2023, along with weapons and maps of the Israeli border communities.  video of the tunnel demolition

•  The Defense Ministry body responsible for facilitating the delivery of humanitarian aid into Gaza says it helped deliver eight empty trucks that will be added to the World Food Programme to bolster the delivery of aid throughout the Strip.

  Six of the trucks are for aid and two of the trucks are for fuel.

  Israel is working to bolster WFP’s capacity after passing legislation aimed at effectively dismantling the UN’s relief agency for Palestinian refugees UNRWA at the end of January over its ties to Hamas.

  “Since the outbreak of war, [COGAT’s] efforts have enabled 63 empty trucks into the Gaza Strip for international organizations,” COGAT says in a statement.

  Aid groups have long argued that the IDF has slow-walked approvals of trucks and other essentials, hampering aid delivery efforts.

Northern Israel - Lebanon/Hizbollah/Syria

• The Golan Heights Peace Park
  

  The collapse of the regime of Bashar al-Assad has opened new possibilities for Syria and Israel. The new Syrian leader Ahmed al-Sharaa, better known by his nom de guerre Abu Mohammad al-Julani, seems to be trying to present a new face to the world of Syria not in conflict with Israel and not part of the Shia axis aligned with Iran. Israel is taking necessary precautions of eliminating any potential threat from Syria by preemptively destroying weapons caches, the Syrian air force and air defense systems, chemical weapons and other military targets. Israel has also crossed into the 235-square-kilometer demilitarized buffer zone that was established in the 1974 Agreement on Disengagement between Israel and Syria, which concluded the Yom Kippur War, and has been manned for decades by UN peacekeepers. Israel has also entered into sovereign Syrian territory beyond the buffer zone. This a provocation that goes beyond caution and has the potential of leading to military responses that could be avoided.

  There is logic to the Israeli steps in sending a clear message to the Syrian regime that Israel is prepared to use all military means at its disposal to prevent Syria from endangering Israel. This is an important message, but perhaps there is a better way of determining if the new Syrian regime is a potential partner for future normalization and perhaps even peace. Before pursuing war, perhaps it is better for Israel to offer some steps that could lead to positive developments in the potential relations between the two countries.

  Perhaps we can learn some lessons from other parts of the world in this regard. In 1997 South Africa President Nelson Mandela, Prince Bernhard of the Netherlands and Dr Anton Rupert created a plan to re-wild southern Africa and to do that cross boundary between countries. Together they created the Peace Parks Foundation that set out on a mission that became Africa’s largest nature conservation initiative. With an initial focus on bringing Heads of State together to create transboundary landscapes called “Peace Parks”. Early successes saw the creation of 10 transfrontier conservation areas. This placed 11.3 million hectares of land under conservation. The Israel-Syria context is of course different from the African case and their successes of creating Peace Parks, but perhaps we can be inspired by the basic idea of cross boundary zones which foster peace and designated such an area as one that would serve both sides and provide opportunities for mutual benefit.

  Peace Parks has evolved over the past 27 years, continuously adapting to maximize impact, drawing on valuable lessons learned along the way. My proposal to Israel and to the new Syria is to transform the 235-square-kilometer buffer zone between the two countries into a new Peace Park. This zone of peace would have open borders from both sides with border and security checks being taken by each country prior to entering the zone. Nationals from both sides would be allowed to enter the Peace Park after security checks and would return on to their own side. International monitors and verifiers could be added to the security clearances until more trust is developed between the two sides. The two sides would have to agree on security arrangements for the area of the Peace Park on equitable terms enabling an agreed upon number of armed police personnel to patrol the Park and ensure security for all of the visitors. Agreements on the economic development of the Peace Park would have to be reached in order to provide facilities for visitors to the park area that would also enable both sides to profit equally from the zone. Tourism is a vital component for the financial sustainability of the Peace Park and perhaps outside investors could be encouraged to help to develop the area as well. Both sides should be interested in ecotourism to preserve and conserve the unique topography and ecosphere of the area. I don’t think that either side would like to see over-development of the area that would destroy the amazing natural scenery, but some level of development can be agreed to.

  The creation of the Golan Peace Park would be a measure in developing constructive cooperation between Israel and Syria and could provide opportunities for Israeli and Syrian citizens to engage positively immediately reducing fears and suspicions existing from decades of animosity and war. The challenge of both sides working together would be to create a sound joint business environment by the advancement of nature-positive inclusive businesses that would promote sustainability and peace. The Israel-Syria Golan Peace Park would make a genuine contribution to peace and prosperity by reducing conflict between the two countries and by creating a safe and secure space for communities promoting peaceful coexistence between.  loink

  About the Author

  The writer is the Middle East Director of ICO - International Communities Organization - a UK based NGO working in Conflict zones with failed peace processes. Baskin is a political and social entrepreneur who has dedicated his life to peace between Israel and her neighbors. He is also a founding member of “Kol Ezraheiha - Kol Muwanteneiha” (All of the Citizens) political party in Israel.

  
  
  

• Syrian media report that one person was wounded after IDF troops opened fire on demonstrators in southern Syria.

  According to the local Daraa 24 outlet, residents of towns in the Yarmouk River basin gathered near a former Syrian army post close to the village of Ma’ariya to protest against the IDF presence in Syria.

  The outlet says IDF troops opened fire in the air to stop the demonstrators from approaching, and one person was hit directly and wounded.

  There is no immediate comment from the IDF.

West Bank and Jerusalem and Terror attacks within Israel  

• IDF notes decrease in incidents of terrorism against both Palestinians and Israelis in West Bank in past year

  The IDF has identified a decrease in the number of incidents of Jewish terrorism against Palestinians in the West Bank this past year compared to the previous.

  Still, some of the incidents of “nationalistic crime” — attacks by settlers against Palestinians — this year have been among the most grave in recent memory, according to military officials.

  Throughout 2024, the IDF and Shin Bet recorded 663 incidents of “nationalistic crime,” compared to 1,045 last year. In 2022, the military recorded 947 incidents, and in 2021, 446.

  This year, there were several cases of Israeli settlers killing Palestinians in the West Bank, including during attacks by mobs on Palestinian villages.

  The IDF has similarly recorded a decrease in the number of Palestinian terror attacks carried out against Israelis in the West Bank and in Israel, including knifings, shootings, and car-rammings.

  In 2024, the military counted 254 terror attacks, compared to 847 in the year prior. In 2022, it recorded 342, and in 2021, the number was 91.

  There has also been a major decrease in the number of stone-throwing and Molotov cocktail attacks by Palestinians, with the IDF recording 1,188 such incidents this year compared to 3,256 last year, 3,779 in 2022, and 8,633 in 2021.

  The IDF says it has killed 787 Palestinian terror operatives in the West Bank since the October 7, 2023, Hamas onslaught. Some 70% of them were armed with a gun, according to the military.

  In all, some 820 Palestinians were killed during that time, with 4% of them being civilians who were not gunmen or rioters who clashed with troops or terrorists carrying out attacks.

  Over 100 airstrikes were carried out by the IDF in the West Bank since October 7, 2023, including five carried out by fighter jets.

  The IDF says it killed 479 terror operatives in the West Bank this year, 504 in 2023, 155 in 2022, and 77 in 2021.

  The IDF has also detained 2,868 wanted Palestinians this year and another 3,026 in 2023. In total since October 7, the IDF says over 6,000 were detained, including 2,350 members of Hamas.

  Also in the past year, 37 Israelis were killed in terror attacks carried out in the West Bank or by West Bank Palestinians inside Israel, according to the IDF’s data. In 2023, the military recorded 41 deaths in Palestinian terror attacks, 32 in 2022, and just 3 in 2021.

  The IDF says it has captured some 1,042 weapons in the West Bank in the past year, including those smuggled into the territory from the border with Jordan. In 2023, a similar number of weapons, 1,065, were captured. According to the military, 1,499 weapons were seized since October 7, 2023.

  In 2022 the IDF recorded 970 captured weapons, and in 2021, just 458.  Link a major reason behind the lower numbers of Jewish Nationalistic crimes, a euphemism for Jewish terrorism, is because the Minister of National “insecurity “ , the criminal Ben Gvir has given explicit instructions to the police to turn a blind eye to Jewish terrorism. It was so effective that the IDF Chief of Staff gave a directive to the Units of the Border Patrol under the auspices of the IDF to do what the police were no longer doing in regards to Jewish Terrorism. However, most of the Border Patrol are under the Police and basically adapted the same directive from Ben Gvir as the rest of the police. So, I don't believe for one second that the amount of Jewish terrorism incidents/attacks are indeed fewer in 2024. I believe that the official number is lower because fewer are being handled officially by the police and border police under the criminal minister.

• Military officials: IDF supports a stronger PA so it can combat West Bank terrorism

  Despite rhetoric from some Israeli ministers, the Israel Defense Forces says it supports strengthening the Palestinian Authority for it to combat terrorism in the West Bank, especially in its north, military officials say.

  In recent days, the PA has been carrying out an operation against terror groups in Jenin, including killing and detaining members of Hamas and Islamic Jihad, seizing weapons, and neutralizing explosive devices. The crackdown came after terror operatives stole two PA vehicles and paraded them through Jenin last week.

  The PA has a relatively strong presence in the southern and central West Bank, where it can maintain order. But in the northern part of the territory, especially the refugee camps in the Jenin, Nablus, and Tulkarem area, it has struggled to exercise authority against the terror groups there.

  Military officials say the PA showed some courage this week when its members entered Jenin, including the refugee camp there. The IDF hopes that such operations will continue, and it will do what it can to help the PA carry them out successfully, as this also benefits the army.

  In the past, the PA would not enter the northern West Bank refugee camps after the IDF had recently operated there. It reached the point where for months at a time the military would not carry out operations inside the refugee camps, in an attempt to allow the PA to carry out actions there, with little success. Now, the IDF and PA have been operating in the refugee camps within a few days of each other.

  The IDF’s efforts to strengthen the PA are not a rogue move, but a directive from the Israeli government. This is despite statements from government ministers in support of weakening the PA.

  The military also supports increasing the number of permits for West Bank Palestinians to work in settlements and inside Israel, after they were nearly all revoked following the October 7, 2023, Hamas onslaught. Currently, some 10,000 West Bank Palestinians have work permits, and the vast majority of them are working inside settlements or industrial zones in the West Bank.

  The military sees the work permits as a significant method of easing the pressure on the economically depressed territory. Link The military and the rest of the security forces have been pushing for the PA to replace Hamas in Gaza since early in the war. However, Netanyahu wouldn't even allow the option to be brought up or presented to any official forum. Netanyahu has been hell bent to continue with his distorted narrative that the PA is a terror organization and continues to keep them weak. It was this distorted narrative that kept him insuring that Hamas would be strengthened and get billions of dollars in order to show that there is no group on the other side that could be seen as a partner for peace. This is one of the major blunders of Netanyahu that brought us October 7, yet he continues with this direction which is the major reason that Hamas continues to exist and informally govern in Gaza. It is all Netanayahu's doing. He has made the same wrong and dangerous decision for all of the time he has been prime minister and refusing to learn or acknowlege  his responsibility and culpability of October 7 to change the record and start on a different path.

• Police, Shin Bet says they’re probing torching of West Bank mosque
  

  Police and the Shin Bet say in a joint statement that they have launched an investigation into the suspected torching and vandalizing of a mosque in the West Bank town of Marda.

  The probe has been opened following a situation assessment, and officers are gathering evidence and findings from the scene, the statement says.

  “We view the incident with severity and will work with determination to bring those responsible to justice,” it adds.
  

  Palestinian media has published footage of the mosque and of graffiti messages at the scene about revenge and rebuilding the Jewish Temple. The reports alleged that settler extremists were behind the act.

  An unnamed Israeli security source cited by Army Radio says the torching and vandalism of a mosque in the West Bank town of Marda overnight was committed by Jews.
  Palestinian media earlier published footage of graffiti messages at the scene saying “Revenge” and quoting a Psalms verse: “The righteous man will rejoice when he sees revenge.” The reports alleged that settler extremists were behind the act.

Politics and the War (general news)

•  The Chief of Staff's Mistake and the Intelligence Failure: These Are the Findings of the October 7 Night Investigation | First Publication

  A year and two months after the surprise attack, the findings of the investigation examining the performance of the IDF's top leadership on the night between October 6 and 7 are revealed • In light of the Defense Minister's demand: the findings will be presented to the Chief of Staff - as early as tomorrow • The partial situational assessment hours before the massacre, and the one that could have changed the picture • All the details

  The investigation into the night of the October 7 attack has been completed, and this evening (Thursday), we published for the first time on the "Central Edition" the findings that will be presented to Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi. The findings will be presented tomorrow, following Defense Minister Katz's demand to complete the investigations by the end of January, thereby signaling to the Chief of Staff the date when his term will end.

  Katz's demand to complete the IDF investigations comes despite no decision having yet been made to establish a state commission of inquiry, whose role would be to examine the political echelon.

  The Findings Are Revealed:

  • The Chief of Staff erred by not instructing a full situational assessment to be conducted.
  • Some of the intelligence presented during the assessment was unfamiliar to the participants in the discussion.
  • The information received did not indicate an immediate-term attack.

  Who Participated in the Telephonic Situational Assessment?

  1. Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi
  2. Southern Command Commander, Major General Yaron Finkelman
  3. Operations Directorate Head, Major General Oded Basiuk
     
     
     

  Who Did Not Participate in the Situational Assessment?

  1. Operations Division Head, Brigadier General Shlomi Binder
  2. Then-Military Intelligence Chief, Major General Aharon Haliva
  3. Air Force Commander, Major General Tomer Bar
     
     
     

     The Situational Assessment That Could Have Changed the Picture

     If a situational assessment involving all relevant parties had taken place, it might have uncovered intelligence data and warning signs pointing to a different unfolding event. With high probability, different decisions would have been made. For this reason, the Chief of Staff decided that same morning, when it was already too late, to conduct an additional situational assessment.  link

The Region and the World

• Documentation of Iran's Flagship Project: Converting Commercial Ships into Deadly War Machines
  Iran's grand military initiative to transform "innocent" ships into carriers of drones, helicopters, and advanced missile systems • The advanced ships become forward bases in the middle of the sea, capable of conducting high-quality long-range attacks • Even the central intelligence ship of the Revolutionary Guards, which aided the Houthi attacks, has undergone conversion.

  
  Iran's UAV carrier Shahid Rodaki
  
  

  In parallel with advancements in its nuclear program and the large-scale development of missiles and drones, Iran has been promoting another military program in recent years—this one in the maritime arena. The Iranian navy manages an extensive operation to convert various commercial ships into military warships. Over the years, Iran has successfully transformed large, seemingly "innocent"-looking vessels into warships, missile carriers, and advanced intelligence ships.

  Currently, having become a powerhouse in the field of drones in particular and the aerial field in general, Iran is vigorously working on converting large ships into unmanned aircraft carriers. In addition to the Shahed suicide drones, which are widely recognized from the war in Ukraine and also, among other instances, from attacks on Israeli ships and tankers or those linked to Israel in the Persian Gulf region, Iran possesses an extensive fleet of drones and larger unmanned aircraft with high combat capabilities.

  These drones are intended to be used as attack tools even for distant targets by operating them from massive ships in the open sea—for instance, in the Red Sea, not far from Israel—enabling bold offensive missions.

  IRIS (Islamic Republic of Iran Ship) "Shahid Bagheri"
  The highly regarded maritime blog Covert Shores has classified the ship as "the Revolutionary Guards' most ambitious maritime project." It is a commercial ship converted into a long and flat drone carrier with a unique character, now in the stage of sea trials after its conversion and construction were essentially completed.

  
  Iran's UAV carrier Shahid Bakri
  
  

  The ship underwent its conversion at the ISOICO (Iran Shipbuilding & Offshore Industries Complex Co) facility—Iran's shipbuilding and maritime industries complex, located near Bandar Abbas, Iran's largest port at the entrance to the Persian Gulf.

  The Shahid Bagheri drone carrier was formerly a container ship named Perarin, featuring a unique deck with an inverted angle. This design allows for the installation of a long landing strip that bypasses the structural obstacles that might have arisen due to the ship's original design.

  
  The Iranian UAV
  
  

  The Shahid Bagheri Ship
  The Shahid Bagheri ship is 240 meters long, with a 175-meter takeoff runway and a 65-meter landing strip. This ship is expected to carry relatively large drones, such as the "Gaza" UAV and the Kaman-22, which are somewhat comparable in power to the American Reaper drones. At the end of the takeoff runway, a ramp can be seen, enabling the drone to lift above sea level.

  IRIS "Shahid Mahdavi"
  Like the Shahid Bagheri (formerly Perarin), the Shahid Mahdavi ship also began its life as a container ship named Sabin. Between 2022 and 2023, it underwent a military conversion to become a drone and helicopter carrier. On the ship's deck, there are two helicopter landing pads as well as missile systems and additional weapon systems. The missiles installed on the ship are anti-ship missiles, located behind the ship's main structure. In February 2024, missile launches were conducted from containers placed on the deck of the Shahid Bagheri.

  

  
  

  

  
  
  

  IRIS "Shahid Roudaki"
  The Shahid Roudaki is the oldest converted ship of the Revolutionary Guards compared to the others. It was converted from a commercial-civilian role to a military one back in 2021. Previously, the 150-meter-long and 21.6-meter-wide ship was called Galaxy F. On the ship’s deck, there is a designated area for helicopter landings, Qader anti-ship missiles, and small boats that can be deployed into the water from the deck.

  "Behshad"
  One of the most notable converted ships of Iran and the Revolutionary Guards is the special intelligence ship Behshad. This ship also started as a civilian-commercial cargo vessel with no military designation. However, over the past decade, it too underwent conversion and became one of the most significant and central intelligence ships of the Revolutionary Guards.

  The ship is equipped with advanced tools and technologies, and for a long period since the start of the war, it was stationed in the Red Sea, serving as an intelligence station aiding the Houthis in their attacks on maritime vessels in the area. For example, the capture of the Galaxy Leader ship by the Houthis in the Red Sea at the start of the war likely would not have been possible without the intelligence assistance provided by the Behshad.

  
  
  

  The ship, which represents a strategic asset for Iran and the Houthis, left its permanent position in the Red Sea on April 4, three days after Israel's attack on the Iranian embassy in Damascus and the assassination of senior Revolutionary Guards officials. The ship departed before Iran’s missile and drone attack on Israel, which subsequently led to speculation that it might be targeted for an Israeli retaliatory strike.

  In January, NBC reported that the U.S. carried out a cyberattack against it, causing significant disruptions to its operations. link   

Personal Stories

  Jimmy Butler Moved Hearts: Promised a Bereaved Mother Tickets to a Heat Game

On an emotional evening held in Miami ahead of the opening of the Nova community exhibit, prominent figures such as producer Scooter Braun and NBA star Jimmy Butler attended. Butler displayed extraordinary sensitivity in a personal encounter with Chani Ricardo, a bereaved mother whose daughter was murdered at the Nova party.

The exhibit "06:29," aimed at commemorating the massacre victims and sharing the survivors' stories, attracted widespread attention due to unique elements like the "Death Shelter."

At the gala evening held yesterday (Wednesday) to mark the opening of the Nova community exhibit in Miami, producer Scooter Braun and NBA star Jimmy Butler listened to the stories of Nova producers Ofir Amir and Omri Sassi, paying respects to the victims.

Jimmy Butler, the NBA star, showed sensitivity off the basketball court during a tour of the exhibit. He met Chani Ricardo, a bereaved mother whose daughter Oria was murdered at the Nova party. During their heartfelt conversation, they exchanged details, and Ricardo inquired about the possibility of attending a Miami Heat game. Butler, in a moment of generosity, responded affirmatively and invited her to a game.

Oria Ricardo

Chani Ricardo, a bereaved mother whose daughter Oria was murdered at the Nova party, was moved to tears during her meeting with Butler. Moments like these, she said, make Butler not only an outstanding player on the court but also an inspiring figure off it.

Ricardo, who participates in Nova exhibits worldwide, shared:
"I volunteer countless hours every day to convey that 411 is not just a number, but entire lives and stories behind the photos. These were people who loved life, loved dancing, and loved living. My daughter Oria, of blessed memory, was part of that love. Today, I live by that motto myself—We will dance again."

Jimmy Butler and Chani Ricardo

Background on the Exhibit:

After tremendous success in New York, Los Angeles, Buenos Aires, and Tel Aviv, the memorial exhibit "06:29" opened yesterday in Miami at Greenwich Studios. The exhibit was created to tell the stories of the 411 victims of the parties, including 22 Nova hostages (out of 100 abductees) still held captive by Hamas.

The exhibit reflects the activities of the Nova community since October 7, aiming to recover. The community, consisting of 3,750 survivors, works in various ways to rebuild their lives and heal physical and emotional wounds while commemorating the memory of the victims.

Oria and Chani Ricardo

Highlights of the Exhibit:

• "Death Shelter": A structure replicating the dimensions of shelters in the Gaza envelope, placed at the center of the exhibit.
• "Passage of Hope": An illuminated corridor connecting different parts of the exhibit, symbolizing hope and recovery.
• Healing Room: A therapeutic space offering support for coping with trauma.

The Nova founders created a moving memorial project, designed and directed by Reut Feingold, to honor the massacre victims. It was first unveiled in Tel Aviv and ran for about ten weeks, attracting thousands of visitors who came to pay their respects and experience the exhibit.

Through collaboration with local organizations, the exhibit reached the United States, debuting in New York and drawing over 100,000 visitors. It then continued to Los Angeles and Buenos Aires, with over 260,000 people visiting so far, including dignitaries such as California Governor Gavin Newsom, Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass, Governor Tim Walz, and entertainment industry figures like Sia, Jessica Alba, Octavia Spencer, Will Ferrell, Kristen Bell, Cindy Crawford, and Katie Couric.

In New York, visitors included New York State Governor Kathy Hochul, New York City Mayor, NYPD officers, and leaders in education from institutions like Barnard College, CUNY, and NYU.

Exhibit Location:
12100 NE 16th Ave, North Miami, FL 33161, United States

Ticket Purchase and Entry Hours:
www.novaexhibition.com

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Dark Legacy - The Abandonment of October 7th Hostages

“Only Military Force Will Free the Hostages” - Nine Months of Deceit

Prof. Avraham Sela

Professor Emeritus, Department of International Relations, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem.

Netanyahu’s declaration of the “Iron Swords” war as a result of Hamas’ murderous attack set two goals that were allegedly equal in importance: the defeat of Hamas as a military and administrative force, and the release of 240 hostages who were abducted and taken into the Gaza Strip on October 7, 2023. But while the military goal was assigned to the Israel Defense Forces, the release of hostages has become a political dilemma that is bound to the government’s survival.

Placing both goals on an allegedly equal plane hides the fact that the release of hostages has become contingent on the progression of war (“only military force can lead to the release of hostages”). It was clear from the beginning that the war would last many months, and without precise information on the hostages’ location, they would be in grave mortal danger due to heavy aerial bombing, tank artillery, and all other weapons operated by the IDF and Hamas terrorists, as they are in the crossfire.

All this should be considered in light of the fact that over decades in which Israel dealt with the abduction of civilians and soldiers by terrorist organizations, any effort to release them by force through military or police action always entailed a heavy price including the loss of some hostages as well as casualties among the attacking forces. In this context, Israel’s history with terrorist organizations unequivocally shows that diplomacy has yielded far more success and brought about fewer casualties on our side than the use of force.

After nine months of war, over 100 hostages remain in Hamas captivity, many of them no longer alive. Only 112 hostages were released (80 of them Israeli) in November 2023 as a result of international diplomacy. Only 12 of the hostages have been released by the IDF, a small number of them in planned operations and the others by chance. These figures say it all. Anyone who knows anything about combat in dense urban terrain - especially in the labyrinth of tunnels and hiding places Hamas has built above and below ground - realizes that whoever holds the hostages would prefer to murder them and die rather than be killed by the IDF and lose the hostages.

Netanyahu considers the hostages an impediment to the superior goal of keeping his coalition intact by continuing the war in Gaza, and he is willing to sacrifice them without hesitation. This is the cruel and cynical political game Netanyahu has been playing for months: creating a façade of negotiations for the release of hostages in exchange for the release of Palestinian prisoners “with blood on their hands” and a “temporary” ceasefire, while simultaneously making declarations that hinder the negotiations, time and time again.

It is not enough that Netanyahu has neglected the hostages, leaving them to their fates; his alleged attempts to negotiate a deal are an abuse of the hostages and their families, who are thrown from hope to despair without any light at the end of the tunnel.

Acronyms and Glossary

COGAT - Coordination of Government Activities in the Territories

ICC - International Criminal Court in the Hague

IJC - International Court of Justice in the Hague

MDA - Magen David Adom - Israel Ambulance Corp

PA - Palestinian Authority - President Mahmud Abbas, aka Abu Mazen

PMO- Prime Minister's Office

UAV - Unmanned Aerial vehicle, Drone. Could be used for surveillance and reconnaissance, or be weaponized with missiles or contain explosives for 'suicide' explosion mission

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