πŸŽ—️Lonny's War Update- October 358, 2023 - September 28, 2024 πŸŽ—️

  

πŸŽ—️Day 358 that 101 of our hostages in Hamas captivity
**There is nothing more important than getting them home! NOTHING!**

“I’ve never met them,
But I miss them. 
I’ve never met them,
but I think of them every second. 
I’ve never met them,
but they are my family. 
BRING THEM HOME NOW!!!”




We’re waiting for you, all of you.
A deal is the only way to bring
all the hostages home- the murdered for burial and the living for rehabilitation.

#BringThemHomeNow #TurnTheHorrorIntoHope

There is no victory until all of the hostages are home!
‎ΧΧ™ΧŸ Χ Χ¦Χ—Χ•ΧŸ Χ’Χ“ Χ©Χ›Χœ Χ”Χ—Χ˜Χ•Χ€Χ™Χ Χ‘Χ‘Χ™Χͺ

There is a new section at the end -Dark Legacy - The Abandonment of October 7th Hostages - A collection of short essays by influential people in Israel today - by the Forum for Life - Saving Israeli Hostages


Red Alerts - Missile, Rocket, Drone (UAV - unmanned aerial vehicles), and Terror Attacks and Death Announcements

*10:05pm yesterday - north - rockets/missiles
*10:20pm yesterday - north - rockets/missiles
*1:25am - north - 
rockets/missiles

Hezbollah launched some 65 rockets at Israel on Friday night, hours after a major Israel Defense Forces strike in Beirut, believed to have targeted the terror group’s chief, Hassan Nasrallah. Shortly after 10 p.m., a barrage of some 30 rockets was launched at Safed, according to the IDF, with local officials saying that at least two impacts in the northern city caused significant damage.


A 68-year-old woman was lightly wounded as a result of one of the rocket impacts in Safed, according to Magen David Adom medics. The woman sustained trauma from the blast, the medics said, adding that she was being evacuated to Ziv Hospital in the city. A house in Safed sustained a direct hit, sparking a fire. No one was injured in the impact as the residents had evacuated to the center of the country, the Ynet news site reported, amid the ongoing rocket fire from Lebanon. Photos and videos posted to social media showed firefighters at the scene working to control the blaze. The IDF said that some of the rockets were intercepted by air defenses.

*6:15am - north - rockets/missiles
*7:35am 
- north - rockets/missiles
*8:00am 
- north - rockets/missiles
*8:05am 
- north - rockets/missiles
*9:00am 
- north - rockets/missiles
*9:35am - 
 north - rockets/missiles
*9:50am 
- north - rockets/missiles
*10:10am 
- north - 
rockets/missiles
*10:40am - 
north - rockets/missiles
*10:45am - north - rockets/missiles
*11:15am -
north - rockets/missiles 
*12:10pm - north - rockets/missiles
*1:15pm -north - rockets/missiles
*1:20pm - north - rockets/missiles
*1:40pm - north - rockets/missiles
*2:00pm - north - rockets/missiles
*5:20pm - north - rockets/missiles

Some 90 rockets were fired at Israel from Lebanon today, according to the IDF. Most of the Hezbollah attacks targeted northern Israel, although several long-range missiles were also fired toward Tel Aviv and the West Bank. There were no major injuries or damage in the attacks today.

*5:40pm - Tel Aviv, Gush Dan  and Center of country - ballistic missile fired from Yemen across central Israel - it was reported that Shrapnel fell in my community which is in the mountains outside of Jerusalem, very far from the alerts of the ballistic missile. We heard the booms of the air defenses but no alert was triggered in our area


Hostage Updates 

  • Once again, all focus is on something other than the hostages. Right now, it is the north and the killing of Nasrallah. It is understandable that this would be a huge news item, but none of us can forget the 101 hostages still in Gaza. Netanyahu and most of his government want us talking about other things but we cannot give them that. The hostages has to be the most important issue of the day, every day, every hour and every minute until they are brought home. 

  • Netanyahu has rejected the US and France proposals for the 21 days ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. The road to ceasefire there is ending the war in Gaza.  It’s on the table: in 3 weeks, ending the war, returning all of the hostages, agreed to release of Palestinian prisoners, transference of Governance in Gaza to a non- Hamas professional technocratic government.  Hamas agrees. Netanyahu does not. It can be done. It is entirely in the hands of Joe Biden - the man who can end these wars!!!!!(Gershon Baskin, Sept 27,2024)

  • I honestly don’t know what to expect from Hezbollah or Iran or even Hamas. What is clear is that the world’s attention now is on Lebanon which has put the Gaza deal and the fate of the hostages on the very back burner.  I don’t think that the assassination of Nasrallah will impact Hamas’s positions on the negotiations. There is still a deal on the table that Hamas accepts for three weeks to end the war, bring the hostages home, and agreed release of Palestinian prisoners and have a non- Hamas technocratic government in Gaza.  Netanyahu clearly does not want it.  What about Biden?  Does Biden have the strength and the will to make it happen?   If he doesn’t,  it probably won’t happen and the hostages will continue to be sacrificed. (Gershon Baskin, September 28, 2024)

Gaza 

  •  

Northern Israel - Lebanon/Hizbollah/Syria

  • The Hezbollah terror group confirms the death of its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, in an Israeli airstrike in the Lebanese capital of Beirut yesterday.

    Hezbollah praises Nasrallah’s leadership of the terror group in its conflict with Israel and support of Palestinians.

    The terror group pledges to continue its fight against Israel and defense of Lebanon.

  • The end of an arch-terrorist: IDF officially announces - Hassan Nasrallah eliminated 

    Dramatic announcement by the IDF, a day after the attack in Dahieh: Hezbollah's Secretary-General for the last 32 years was eliminated alongside Ali Karaki and other commanders. "He was responsible for the murder of many civilians and soldiers, and for carrying out thousands of terrorist actions," the IDF said. IDF Chief of Staff: "This is not the end of our toolkit. The message - we will know how to reach anyone who threatens us" 

    **The end of the arch-terrorist who led Hezbollah for 32 years:**

    In a dramatic announcement, the IDF reported that in last night's (Friday) attack in Dahieh, Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah was eliminated. He was the man who led the fight in the northern sector against Israel for decades. Alongside Nasrallah, Ali Karaki, commander of Hezbollah's Southern Front, and other commanders in the terrorist organization were also eliminated in the attack in Beirut. 

    The announcement stated that Israeli Air Force fighter jets, with precise intelligence guidance from the Intelligence Division and the security system, attacked Hezbollah's central headquarters, located under a residential building in Dahieh, Beirut. The attack, they wrote, was carried out while Hezbollah's top leadership was at the headquarters coordinating terrorist activities against Israeli civilians. 

    "During Nasrallah's 32 years as leader of the Hezbollah terrorist organization, he was responsible for the murder of many Israeli civilians and soldiers, and for planning and carrying out thousands of terrorist actions against the State of Israel and around the world," the statement said. "Nasrallah was the central decision-maker and sole approver of strategic-systemic decisions, and sometimes even tactical decisions in the organization." 

    "The Hezbollah terrorist organization and its leader Hassan Nasrallah joined the war against the State of Israel on October 8th. Since then, Hezbollah has continued its attacks against Israeli civilians, and dragged the state of Lebanon and the entire region into escalation. The IDF will continue to hit anyone who promotes and engages in terrorism against Israeli citizens." 

    IDF Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Herzi Halevi hinted at what's to come after the official announcement: "This is not the end of our toolkit. The message is simple, to anyone who threatens the citizens of the State of Israel - we will know how to reach them." 

    Shortly after 18:00 yesterday evening, Israeli Air Force fighter jets launched several bunker-buster bombs, similar to those the IDF dropped on Hamas tunnels in the Gaza Strip, at a building complex under which Nasrallah was staying. The operation was approved just hours earlier, following precise intelligence on Nasrallah's location in the Dahieh quarter in southern Beirut, but the Air Force's readiness for such an operation was in place even earlier. In fact, in the last week, the Air Force prepared a timed "hunting package" that operated around the clock throughout Lebanon, with immediate availability in the air of armed fighter jets - to eliminate Hezbollah seniors in any window of opportunity that would open and on any intelligence that would pop up. 

    Nasrallah's bunker was deep underground, hence the special armament was chosen - capable of penetrating into the belly of the earth and to a specific point chosen there. This can be assessed from watching the pillars of fire created by the bomb hits on the ground - along with the fact that nearby buildings were almost undamaged, as part of the enormous investment in planning this mission to avoid harming uninvolved parties as much as possible. 

    In fact, the intelligence and operational plan was executed well according to plan, including the depth of the penetrating bombs and the points the Air Force wanted them to reach, and the understanding is that if Nasrallah was indeed there as estimated - he did not survive. link


  • The Israeli Air Force carried out massive targeted airstrikes in the Lebanese capital of Beirut on Friday evening, with the military saying it had struck Hezbollah’s main headquarters. An Israeli official confirmed to The Times of Israel that the strikes targeted Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, who was believed to be at the command center at the time.

    “It’s very hard to imagine him coming out alive from a strike like that,” said the official, as multiple Hebrew media reports cited a growing Israeli assessment that Nasrallah was killed in the strike on the underground headquarters.

    The attack shook the Lebanese capital and sent thick clouds of smoke over the city. There were reports of many casualties in the multiple strikes. A source close to Hezbollah said the Israeli strikes flattened six buildings. It was the heaviest attack in Beirut in almost a year of conflict between Hezbollah and Israel. Israeli television networks reported that the attack had involved bombs totaling tens of tons of explosives.

    A Lebanese security source told Reuters that Hezbollah’s top officials are usually gathered at the site that was targeted.

    Underlining the extraordinary nature of the strike, IDF Spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari gave an on-camera statement minutes afterward. Hagari said the command center was built underneath civilian buildings in the Dahiyeh suburb, a known Hezbollah stronghold in Beirut. He did not mention whether Nasrallah was a target or was believed to be present at the site. Footage from Beirut showed extensive destruction at the site. video  another video

  • Israel’s Channel 12 news reports the assessment in Israel is that Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah was killed in tonight’s IDF strike on the terror group’s underground HQ in Beirut.

    Its on-screen headline reads, “The assessment in Israel: Nasrallah is eliminated.” A second major Israeli TV station, Channel 13, is slightly more wary, stating, “Cautious optimism in Israel: The strike on Nasrallah succeeded.” Link

    Hezbollah’s senior leadership is unreachable following Israel’s strikes on Beirut’s southern suburbs, a source close to the Lebanese terror group tells Reuters.

    Hours after the strikes, Hezbollah hasn’t made a statement on the fate of its head, Hassan Nasrallah.


  • Dozens of Hezbollah rocket launchers in southern Lebanon and buildings used by the terror group to store weapons were struck by Israeli fighter jets this evening, the IDF says.

    The Israeli military plans to ramp up its strikes on Hezbollah assets in the Lebanese capital of Beirut.

    Earlier this evening, the IDF said it was striking three buildings in the Dahiyeh suburb of Beirut where Hezbollah stored Iranian anti-ship missiles. Other Hezbollah sites will also be hit in the Dahiyeh, military sources say.

    It comes after the military carried out massive airstrikes on Hezbollah’s main headquarters in the Dahiyeh earlier on Friday, in an attack that targeted Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah.

    Until now, IDF strikes in Beirut had been “targeted assassinations” of top Hezbollah commanders. The latest strikes have been larger, and aimed at taking out infrastructure, along with top officials.

    The coming days are expected to be complex, the military has assessed.

  • IDF Spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari warns that the military will not allow any weapon transfers to the Hezbollah terror group, including via Beirut’s international airport.

    “We will not allow the transfer of weapons to the Hezbollah terror group, in any way. We know of Iranian weapon transfer to Hezbollah, and we [will] foil them,” he says.

    “Air Force planes are now patrolling the Beirut airport area. Until now, Lebanon, contrary to Syria, acted over the years responsibly and did not allow the transfer of weapons through the civilian airport,” Hagari continues.

    “We are announcing, we will not allow enemy flights with weapons to land at the civilian airport in Beirut. This is a civilian airport, for civilian use, and it must stay that way,” he adds.

  • The IDF is calling on Lebanese civilians near several buildings in the Dahiyeh suburb of Beirut, a known Hezbollah stronghold, to evacuate immediately.

    Col. Avichay Adraee, the IDF’s Arabic-language spokesman, publishes maps alongside the announcement, which call on civilians to distance themselves at least 500 meters from three sites in Dahiyeh.

    The sites are used by Hezbollah, according to the IDF.

    “You are located near Hezbollah properties, and for your safety and the safety of your loved ones, you are obliged to evacuate the buildings immediately and move away from them to a distance of no less than 500 meters,” Adraee says.

  • Ali Larijani, an adviser to Iranian supreme leader Ali Khamenei, tells Iranian state television that “any leader of the resistance will be replaced.”

    “The resistance has strong leaders and cadres, and every leader who is martyred will be replaced,” he says, following the Israeli strike on a Hezbollah command center in southern Beirut targeting the Iran-backed Lebanese terror group’s leader Hassan Nasrallah. link I don't know enough about the inner workings of Hizbollah, but my gut feeling is that they function very differently than Hamas. While Hamas is used to its leadership and ranking officers being killed or imprisoned and therefore are extremely agile in replacements immediately stepping in to those positions, Hizbollah has only had a handful of leaders eliminated (prior to these past 2 weeks) and the top leadership have been in their positions for decades and close to Nasrallah who has served in his position of top leader of Hizbollah also for decades. It is very likely that each of the leadership had back benches to take their place, the small cadre at the top were most likely the benches for each other, but most of them have been killed. If Nasrallah was killed, Iran will have to fill that position themselves or with a much lower ranked Hizbollah officer who will be lacking the experience and connections of those he is taking their place. This could be an opportunity for both the Lebanese people and for Israel to redraw the lines before Hizbollah has a chance to fully recuperate and realign. On the other hand, it could cause the lower ranking officers to let all hell break out and launch thousands of missiles and not tens at a time. We will have to see how this plays out especially on the diplomatic side to bring about a ceasefire and agreements to stop the hostilities while moving the Hizbollah fighters and weapons further away from the border.

  • IDF Spokesperson reveals: Advanced missile array under buildings in Dahieh

    Brigadier General Hagari warned that in the coming hours we will attack Hezbollah's strategic capabilities in Beirut • The IDF Spokesperson refrained from commenting on the elimination of Nasrallah, but clarified: "We are still checking the results, our attack was very precise" •  Dahieh residents fleeing

    IDF Spokesperson, Brigadier General Daniel Hagari, revealed tonight (Saturday) that Hezbollah is hiding an advanced shore-to-sea missile array under three buildings in the heart of Beirut. In a dramatic statement, Hagari announced that the IDF plans to attack these targets in the coming hours. After a short while, the Air Force launched a wave of attacks.

    At the beginning of his remarks, Hagari provided an update on the current situation, but refrained from directly addressing the assassination attempt on Nasrallah: "In the last hour, we held a situation assessment led by the Chief of Staff. The IDF is at peak readiness. We are still checking the results of the attack on the Hezbollah headquarters located in the heart of the Dahieh neighborhood. We will update as soon as we know. We know that our attack was very precise."

    "In the coming hours, we are going to attack Hezbollah's strategic capabilities under three buildings in Beirut," Hagari said. "They developed a shore-to-sea missile array. They have realized attacks on shipping routes. During the Lebanon War, Hezbollah launched missiles that killed four soldiers."

    Hizbollah shore-to-sea missile warehouse

    Following the IDF Spokesperson's warning, the Air Force announced that it is specifically targeting Hezbollah weaponry stored under civilian buildings in Dahieh, Beirut. Hagari emphasized that Hezbollah deliberately chose to locate the missiles in populated areas. "They stored weapons under houses, which served as protection," he said. "This allowed them to launch them from the building. This is a real threat to shipping routes."

    Hagari also addressed the fire towards northern Israel: "In the last hour, fire was carried out towards the north. Residents are acting responsibly. We are conducting a situation assessment and there is currently no change in the Home Front Command's instructions. Nevertheless, remain alert. We will update on any changes."

    The IDF took the unusual step of announcing in advance its intention to attack these targets. "In the last hour, we approached the residents of the three buildings in Dahieh. They are located above Hezbollah assets, residents should move away from them immediately for their safety and well-being," Hagari said. He warned: "The building's occupants should move away from it before the attack. We will attack in a short time. The force of the explosion may cause damage to structures. We will not allow the transfer of Hezbollah's resources in any way." Meanwhile, close to the declaration, civilians were documented quickly leaving the Dahieh area.

    Finally, the IDF Spokesperson referred to activity at Beirut airport: "Air Force planes are currently patrolling the Beirut airport area. So far, the state of Lebanon has acted responsibly and has not allowed the transfer of weapons through a civilian airport. We will not allow hostile flights with weapons to land in Beirut. This is a civilian airport and we must keep it as such." link

  • The elimination of Nasrallah will create an opportunity for the final blow of the war - by Tamir Heiman, former head of Military Intelligence

    Even before the attack, Hezbollah was already beaten and injured - and now it may be receiving its most painful blow • If the assassination succeeded, Iran is expected to respond, and to intensify its response if the commander of the Quds Force in Lebanon was also eliminated in the attack • The US will be obliged to back Israel, but may exact a price at a surprising time

    If indeed the top leadership of Hezbollah, led by the organization's Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, was thwarted in yesterday's (Friday) evening attack in the Dahieh quarter, it marks a turning point in the campaign. The implications and consequences have 4 dimensions of analysis that will help assess what will happen now:

    **1. The Hezbollah angle:** The organization is in a bad state. Its fire capabilities have been reduced by more than half (this still leaves several thousand heavy rockets and a few hundred precision missiles). Its senior commanders have been eliminated, so the chain of command and control is severely disrupted, many of its operatives are in hospitals, and it cannot rely on its communication arrays. In this inferior state, it receives the hardest blow it has suffered so far. Nasrallah is much more than a military commander; he is a community leader in Lebanon, a senior member of the Iranian resistance axis (after Soleimani's elimination, he is the most senior and veteran), he is a revered religious figure and symbol. His departure, if indeed he has departed, generates a deep emotional response and strategic commitment to a severe reaction.

    The organization can throw all its remaining capabilities into the battle, but this will be a severe and short blow. It can expand its fire to Tel Aviv and other parts of Israel and create a routine of alarms, and it can try to carry out an infiltration attack into Israeli territory. But first of all, if the assassination was successful, there is a need to appoint a replacement, rescue the trapped, hold a grand funeral, and conduct a proper situation assessment. We are likely to see an immediate response from Hezbollah, but we will only see the full response in a few days.

    **2. The Israeli angle:** Israel still needs to decide what the desired end state in Lebanon is. If Nasrallah has indeed been thwarted, there is an opportunity here for a closing blow. Hezbollah is weak, Hamas's military wing has been defeated, if now they go for a hostage deal and prevent the axis from responding, this is a complete victory - that is, humiliation of the axis, and achieving all the war's objectives. Hamas has been defeated, the hostages will be returned in such a scenario, and Hezbollah is forced to lick its wounds after the blows it received.

    **3. The Iranian angle:** Hezbollah, the pride of the axis, is beaten, bruised, and on the verge of extinction. This requires deep discussion in Iran. On one hand, they will need to respond in order to deter Israel from expanding the campaign, and on the other hand, Israel of recent days is a dangerous and unpredictable player and therefore more deterrent.

    The Iranian leadership is close to Nasrallah, so there is a personal-emotional dimension here. In addition, Iran is still waiting to respond to the thwarting of Hamas political bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh, who was eliminated in Tehran. It's difficult to assess what the Iranian response will look like, and what instructions they will give to Hezbollah.

    It should be remembered that if together with Nasrallah, the commander of the Quds Force in Lebanon (the replacement of General Mahdavi, who was eliminated a few months ago in Damascus), was in the bunker with Nasrallah, and if he was also killed, this requires a response similar to what we saw for Mahdavi's elimination, and the two events together add up to a situation where Iran will be the one to lead the situation assessment and determine the axis's response policy.

    **4. The American angle:** The US doesn't want a regional war - it wants quiet before the elections. The latest development is uncomfortable for the administration, but President Biden cannot do anything that would be considered confrontational towards Israel, as this would be immediately exploited by the Republican candidate Donald Trump. The US has no choice; it must fully support Israel.

    We may pay for this constraint immediately after the elections during Biden's "lame duck" period - referring to the period between the elections and his replacement in the White House, when he will be free of all restraints and will act only for the sake of his historical legacy. This will probably be the time of payment from the American perspective.

    **5. The Palestinian angle:** Sinwar caused the elimination of Hezbollah's top leadership, the weakening of the organization, and the involvement of Iran in an adventure it didn't want. The difficult questions will come after the war, especially the question of whether the alliance of Shiites with the Sunni Palestinian resistance is worthwhile.

    Meanwhile, in the short term, the IDF's focus on the north eases the pressure in Gaza, but the lack of interest in a hostage deal is not good for Sinwar. He would like the war in Gaza and the American pressure on Netanyahu to reach a deal to continue. view


  • Obituary: Nasrallah oversaw Hezbollah’s rise into one of the most powerful paramilitary forces in the Middle East

    Hassan Nasrallah, who Israel killed in a strike on southern Beirut, turned Hezbollah into one of the most powerful paramilitary forces in the Middle East.

    His death caps a series of devastating blows for the group, already reeling from the humiliation of having its communications network comprehensively infiltrated, and suggests that one of Israel’s most formidable enemies is deeply wounded.

    One of the founding members of the group formed four decades ago with the aid of Iran, Nasrallah ascended to the top of Hezbollah in 1992. He replaced his predecessor and mentor, Abbas Musawi, as secretary-general of Hezbollah, after he was killed by an Israeli helicopter strike.

    Born to a grocer and his wife in Beirut in August 1960, Nasrallah spent his early adolescence under the shadow of Lebanon’s civil war.

    His family were forced to flee the capital when the fighting erupted in 1975, moving further south to a village near the coastal city of Tyre.

    One year later, Nasrallah moved to Iraq to attend a Shiite seminary. But he was swiftly expelled during the persecution of Shiite Muslims under Iraqi President Saddam Hussein’s repressive regime – returning to Lebanon to study under his teacher, Musawi.

    When Israel invaded Lebanon in 1982, responding to attacks by the Palestine Liberation Organization, Nasrallah rallied a group of fighters to resist the occupation – which would evolve into Hezbollah.

    Israeli forces took almost half of Lebanon’s territory that year, and were held responsible for the killing of at least 17,000 people, according to reports and an Israeli inquiry into a massacre at a Beirut refugee camp.
    Transformation of Hezbollah

    Known for his fiery speeches, the leader oversaw the transformation of Hezbollah, from a rag-tag group of militants in the 1980s to an organization that mounted a concerted campaign to drive out Israeli occupation in 2000.

    The Lebanese militant group became a regional fighting force under Nasrallah. He led the growth of Hezbollah’s forces – his fighters and reservists are thought to number 100,000 – as well as the proliferation of its arsenal, which boasts long-range as well as medium and short-range missiles and drones.

    Nasrallah commands a dedicated following of hundreds of thousands of largely Shiite Muslims – in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria and Yemen. His influence in the Iran-backed so-called axis of resistance grew exponentially after the US assassinated Iran’s top general Qassem Soleimani, the architect of the region-wide axis, in 2020.

    Hezbollah is the most robustly armed non-state group in the region – and is the most dominant political force in crisis-ridden Lebanon. Much of the Western world has designated Hezbollah a terrorist organization.
    ‘Lebanon will not stop supporting Gaza’

    The Lebanese militant group has increasingly traded strikes with Israel since it launched its assault on Gaza after the Hamas-led October 7 attacks – inflaming tensions in the region.

    Hezbollah says it has been firing on Israel in solidarity with Hamas, and Palestinians trying to survive Israeli attacks in Gaza, which have killed more than 41,000 people, according to the Ministry of Health there.
    Days before he was killed, Nasrallah vowed to continue striking Israeli positions until Israel’s offensive in Gaza ends. “I say clearly: no matter the sacrifices, consequences, or future possibilities, the resistance in Lebanon will not stop supporting Gaza,” he said in a speech on September 19.

    Fears of an all-out war peaked earlier this month, after Israel unleashed a wave of lethal explosions across Lebanon targeting Hezbollah fighters. Many of those killed were civilian bystanders.

    In the days since, hundreds of thousands of people in Lebanon have been forced from their homes by Israeli attacks. In total, since October 7, more than 1,500 civilians in Lebanon have been killed and over 200,000 people displaced, according to the UN’s Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. Lebanese officials estimate the true number of displaced is closer to half a million.

    Human rights advocates have fiercely condemned the violence – including UN Secretary-General AntΓ³nio Guterres, who warned that Lebanon is suffering its bloodiest period “in a generation” and called on Israel and Hezbollah to “stop the killing and destruction.” link

  • Senior Israeli Air Force officials say the strike in Beirut yesterday killing Hezbollah terror chief Hassan Nasrallah went smoothly with no errors or enemy fire on the IAF warplanes.

    “Everything we planned was executed precisely, with no errors, both in intelligence, the planning, with the planes, and the operation itself. Everything went smooth,” Lt. Col. “Mem” the commander of the IAF’s 69th Squadron — who can only be identified by his first initial in Hebrew — tells reporters.

    The 69th Squadron flies a fleet of F-15I fighter jets and is based at the Hatzerim Airbase in southern Israel.

    “We went to strike in the heart of Beirut, in the Dahiyeh. We knew who we wanted to target,” he adds.

    Meanwhile, the commander of the Hatzerim Airbase, Brig. Gen. Amichai Levin, says the ” very complex” mission was planned long in advance.

    Levin tells reporters that the killing of Nasrallah “will have a profound effect that will change the face of the Middle East.”

    He also says that during the strike “No missiles were fired at the planes… and there was no danger to the crews.”

    “Dozens of munitions hit the target within seconds with very high precision, and this is part of what is required to hit underground sites at this depth,” the airbase commanders adds.


West Bank and Jerusalem and Terror attacks within Israel

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Politics and the War (general news)

  •  US rating agency Moody’s Investor’s Service downgrades Israel’s credit rating for a second time this year, but this time by two notches, citing the increased intensity of the fighting between Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah terror group and expectations of a prolonged war.

    The rating agency cut Israel’s credit score from A2 to Baa1 and maintains a negative outlook raising concerns that domestic political risks have increased alongside geopolitical risks.

    “With heightened security risks (a social consideration), we no longer expect a swift and strong economic recovery as in previous conflicts,” Moody’s says. “In turn, a delayed and slower economic recovery in combination with a more prolonged and broader military campaign will more persistently impact public finances, further pushing out the prospect of a stabilization of the public debt ratio, compared to our earlier projections.”

    “In our view, the significant escalation in geopolitical risk also points to diminished quality of Israel’s institutions and governance which have not fully mitigated actions detrimental to the sovereign’s credit metrics,” the rating agency cautions.

    Moody’s downgrade came following a week of almost non-stop Israeli strikes that have devastated the Lebanese terror group’s senior command, on the heels of a wave of detonations of Hezbollah operatives’ communications devices, widely blamed on Israel.

    Since the war began with the Hamas-led October 7 attack, all three major credit rating agencies — Moody’s, S&P, and Fitch — cut Israel’s sovereign rating and maintained a negative outlook, leaving the door open for further downgrades if the security situation escalates or the country’s fiscal position deteriorates.

    Back in February, Moody’s lowered Israel’s credit rating from A1 to A2 — the first ever downgrade — and changed its outlook to “negative,” citing the impact of the ongoing Gaza war on the government’s debt burden, as well as fiscal and political risks.  link Although the war is the underlying reason for the downgrades, the real reasons are all about poor economic strategy, management, directions and mitigations. We have a unqualified finance minister who is fully guided by his messianic ideologies of extreme religious education and settlements and disregards the expertise of the ministry professionals. He, together with our weak prime minister enable totally unnecessary ministries to not only continue with their worthless existence, but makes sure to get them bigger budgets for their superfluous work. Instead of weeding out all the waste of the political echelons and showing the financial bodies of the world that direct and immediate efforts are being put in first in the government's own backyard, they choose to place even more burden on a population that is suffering from continuous trauma, loss of income and opportunities, almost non existent tourism, loss of international investment and the list goes on. They are discussing all the new and expanded taxes that will be levied on the lower and middle classes, the ones who have been suffering the most. These are the main reasons for the downgrades of credit because it all comes down to economic mismanagement.

  • Expected Downgrade - With Surprising Intensity: Moody's Issues a Red Card to the Finance Minister and Prime Minister

    The further downgrade of Israel's credit rating was inevitable given the escalation, but it could have been mitigated with a more responsible economic policy, less sectoral and more balanced. Meanwhile, Bezalel Smotrich will be remembered as the Finance Minister during whose tenure the country's credit rating was reduced by three levels - and not just because of the war. Commentary

    A few hours after Netanyahu's "war of the sons of light against the sons of darkness" speech at the UN General Assembly, the IDF's massive attack in the heart of Beirut, and amid reports of a rift in relations between the Israeli government and the American administration, the credit rating agency Moody's published its decision to lower Israel's rating by two more levels - which included changing the prefix from A to B (and this after the rating had already dropped one level at the beginning of Operation Iron Swords).

    Against the backdrop of these events, the decision to downgrade was inevitable, but its intensity is surprising. Moody's has issued a red card to the Finance Minister and to the economic and security-political policy of the Israeli government and to Israel as a country. A bright and screaming red.

    Bezalel Smotrich himself will therefore be remembered as a Finance Minister during whose tenure the country's credit rating was reduced by three (!) levels - and not just because of the war. Moody's economists emphasize that a more responsible fiscal policy, less sectoral-political and more balanced, could have sweetened the bitter pill - perhaps limiting the current rating reduction to just one level.

    It was expected and desirable to set a budget deficit target of only about 4.5% of GDP for 2024 (as recommended by the local economist community) and to implement far-reaching restraint and taxation measures for this purpose, including canceling all coalition funds. But the Prime Minister and the Finance Minister had other intentions, such as maintaining the coalition and transferring resources to the ultra-Orthodox and settlements, and so we arrived at the current blow.

    The truth should not be hidden: a red card from the credit rating agency Moody's (a private for-profit company) is bad for Israel. It also reflects Moody's negative assessment of Israel's security policy and also - yes, also - the global anti-Israeli sentiment.

    As for the decision itself, Moody's had no professional choice but to reduce the rating of a country in an ongoing multi-arena war whose cost is estimated at 250 billion shekels (12% to 13% of annual GDP), a huge amount including an addition of 140 billion shekels to direct security budgets, whose weight in the economy has already doubled, tens of billions of shekels more as payment of grants and compensations and a significant loss of real GDP due to reserve mobilization, evacuation of settlements and damage to exports and investments.

    In Moody's basic reference scenario, growth will stop for several years and the budget deficit will remain deep - above 6% of GDP - also next year. Its forecast for the coming years is negative, although it should be noted that in the past, Moody's forecasts did not stand up to reality tests.

    How will the rating downgrade affect our daily lives? Apart from a certain increase in the cost of credit from abroad, it should not have a significant impact. Global capital markets do not wait for the verdicts of credit rating agencies and do not react to them. Reactions regarding Israel will reflect the independent opinion of each player in this huge market, an opinion that may change daily.

    And alongside all this, there is quite a bit of justice in the words of criticism about Moody's decision from the words of the Accountant General in the Treasury, Yaheli Rotenberg. Moody's rationale for the double downgrade is that the Israeli government has no political-security strategy for ending the military confrontation with Hezbollah and sentences Israel to sink into a long and bloody attrition. Thus, the rating determiners take upon themselves a role that is much larger than they are: they pretend to give a grade to a country and not to its ability to repay credit. Israel has never been late even by one hour in repaying all its debts, has accumulated foreign exchange reserves of $220 billion and enjoys a very large surplus in its international balance of payments.

    Finally, as other credit rating agencies are debating whether to follow Moody's, is it possible to change the evil decree? Yes, if the Prime Minister has the courage to appoint a leading non-partisan economic figure with international authority as Finance Minister who will receive full backing from Bibi (like Prof. Jacob Frenkel, for example) - it may be possible to somewhat reduce the evil of the coming decrees. link

    The Region and the World
    •  The Houthi terror group eulogizes slain Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, saying that “his jihad was concluded in the best possible way,” namely with “martyrdom.”

      In a statement, the organization says that the “blood of martyred leaders will not be spilled in vain… the resistance will not be broken, and the jihadi spirit of the brothers in Lebanon and on all fronts of support [to Hamas] will grow stronger.”

      The Yemeni terror group further vows to continue waging jihad in “defense of its homeland” and “for the victory of the oppressed in Palestine and Lebanon.” 

       
    Personal Stories


     **"I’m Safe Now, They Can’t Hurt Me Again"**

    Amit Susanna, a lawyer from Kibbutz Kfar Aza, was kidnapped from her home on October 7th. She fought her captors in the fields of the kibbutz, was tortured in captivity under gun threats, and was released in the first hostage deal. After her release, she bravely testified to the world about the sexual assault she endured in Hamas captivity. Today, she is active in the fight to free the hostages. "I wasn’t afraid to return to Kfar Aza. Even when I see the burnt house and the path where the terrorists led me, it doesn’t truly take me back to that horrible day. I can’t really connect to that pure terror I felt in the moments they kidnapped me. I’m safe now, they can’t hurt me again."


    **You arrived for the photos with companions.**  
    "My sister Shira and my cousin Michal came with me to the photo shoot in Kfar Aza. I was a bit nervous, partly because I don’t really like being photographed, and partly because it had been so long since I last came to the kibbutz.

    "This time was different from previous times I had been there. It was very quiet, and we didn’t see groups of visitors like before. It was really strange at first. I felt a deep sense of loneliness. But there was also something in that quiet that allowed me to reconnect to the place, to remember that this was truly my home. It’s no longer just a site where people come to see the devastation and hear the horror stories of what happened here on October 7th. It’s my home, or at least what’s left of it. It breaks my heart to see that my beautiful neighborhood, which was once full of life, has turned into a silent memorial. My neighbors, such good people, were either murdered or kidnapped and, a year after the disaster, are still being held in hell in Gaza. All that remains for now are their pictures, hanging outside the burnt and destroyed houses."

    On the morning of the "Black Saturday," Susanna hid in a small closet behind coats, messaging her family that the terrorists were already inside her house. The terrorists who broke into her home took her wrapped in a blanket pulled from her bed, still in her pajamas. Armed with a rifle and machete, they dragged her outside, hitting her face and choking her. Susanna intentionally fell to the ground, fighting them, trying to signal an Israeli drone flying above her for help. After an hour-long struggle with the terrorists, one of them put her on a stolen bicycle and tied her hands. She tried to resist and managed to topple the bike, leaving a scar on her hand. With no help in sight, she remained determined to show the terrorists she was strong and unafraid. She kept her composure, didn’t cry, and turned her head away when a camera was pointed at her, so her family wouldn’t see her in that condition when the video was posted on Telegram. "It drove them crazy that I didn’t cry or scream. Only at the beginning, when they dragged me out of the house, I shouted to Yotam Chaim z"l, my neighbor, 'Yotam, help!'"

    She was then taken to a car, described as being treated "like a potato," and kidnapped to Gaza. "On October 7th, I believed until the very last moment that they would come to rescue me. Even when I saw the gate leading to Gaza, I still believed the army would arrive at any second to save me. That belief gave me the strength to fight. And I fought. I fought until there was no chance left. The army didn’t come that day to save me, but the whole time I never stopped believing. Deep inside, I knew they wouldn’t abandon me. I’ll never forget the moment I finally heard the words, 'Amit, it’s the IDF. We’re waiting for you.' I’ll remember that for the rest of my life. There isn’t a day I don’t thank our soldiers, the country, and the people who got me out of that hell." 

    Amit was held in six different locations, including private homes and an underground tunnel. "No matter what suffering I went through, after five weeks, on Friday, they took us down into the tunnel, and that was the hardest part. I just wasn’t prepared for that. To be 40 meters underground, in the dark. It felt like a grave. Like we were in a grave. Waking up in the middle of the night, after the little sleep you managed to get, and realizing that’s where you are. We convinced them that if they didn’t take us out, we’d die there, and eventually, they brought us back to a house where real psychopaths tormented us emotionally. We weren’t allowed to speak at all, sitting in the dark all the time. But whenever we could glance at each other, we’d laugh and smile, saying that no matter what, the important thing was we had air and we were above ground. When I think about the six hostages who were killed in the tunnel, in that dark corridor, it breaks my heart that’s where they ended their lives."

    **What went through your mind while in captivity?**  
    "I kept thinking about what it felt like to be in Israel while all of this was happening. I imagined myself sitting in my living room watching everything unfold from the side. I just wanted to hear the IDF airstrikes from the other side and not be afraid. I wanted to feel protected, to know that someone was watching over me. Now that I’m here, I try to remind myself of those feelings to stay strong, to try to keep my sanity and not break. Even while I was there, I told myself from the beginning that I wouldn’t let them break me. That no matter what happens to me, no matter how they hurt me, if I managed to get out of there—I’d be okay. The most important thing was getting out."

    **What helps you cope with the trauma today?**  
    "Just talking, getting everything out. Not being ashamed of what happened to me and understanding that the more I share what happened, the less shame, pain, and trauma I’ll carry. The more I share, the more bearable it becomes, and I come out stronger. It was also very important to me that people hear the truth, understand the horrors that the hostages are going through in captivity, and do everything possible to free them from this nightmare as quickly as possible."

    In March, Amit testified in an interview with *The New York Times* about the sexual assault she suffered at gunpoint while in Hamas captivity, chained in a children's room. "I wanted to share everything that happened to me right away after I was released, but I was afraid of hurting the families and the hostages who are still there. Once people in Israel started talking about these assaults, I realized it was the right time to speak out. Unfortunately, despite the shock and horror of people here, it didn’t affect decision-makers the way I hoped it would."

    **How do you feel today, almost a year later?**  
    "I’m still trying to understand and come to terms with everything that’s happened to me since October 7th, with everything that happened to all of us that day, and to understand why this had to happen. There has to be a reason for everything, right? In the meantime, I somehow manage to wake up every morning and remind myself how lucky I was to get out of there, how lucky everyone who made it out in the deal was.

    "For now, I somehow manage not to go crazy or break down. It’s hard to try to heal when they’re still there. As long as they’re still there, I don’t even want to think about starting any process of healing or recovery. I know what it feels like to be there, I remember so vividly that feeling of absolute fear and helplessness, and as long as people are still experiencing that, I won’t let myself forget, and I don’t want to move forward. You just can’t bear it anymore."  link


    Dark Legacy - The Abandonment of October 7th Hostages





    A Letter to Bibi

    Prof. Uzi Beller

    Head of the gynecology department at Jerusalem's Shaare Zedek Medical Center.

    Bibi, It's been a long time since we've had any direct contact. I believe that our last phone conversation took place at noon on a Saturday in November 2019, almost five years ago. Since then, my beloved country, to which I returned from the temptations of New York City 35 years ago, has gone through calamities, blows and vicious abuse, at an intensity that threatens its very existence. However, this letter focuses entirely on the terrible and ongoing physical, human and moral trauma called "the hostages of October 7th, 2023.”

    Not a day goes by in which my mind doesn’t imagine the hostages’ miserable and dangerous condition, as they languish in the dark tunnels under the Gaza Strip’s boiling ground.

    As a father of three daughters and grandfather of two granddaughters, I can neither ignore nor repress the unique condition of the young women, who—beyond the abuse shared by all the hostages - are subject to incessant, indescribable physical and mental injury, day and night.

    My own nights have become sleepless as a result.

    Sadly, although you too have a daughter, you're obviously not experiencing what many Israeli men and women, like me, are going through. Your behavior throughout this terrible time reveals a complete  absence of compassion, thought for others and in particular - real actions meant to save them.

    You must know that the condition of hostages held underground can be likened to ongoing drowning in murky waters. Lack of oxygen and a hunger for fresh air are one of the most terrible tortures known to humankind, there is no worse agony. Even the ancient Romans understood this when they crucified their enemies, weakening their muscles in a way that led to slow suffocation and inability to breathe.

    You, Bibi, having almost drowned years ago in the waters of the Suez Canal, are probably well familiar with that horrifying sensation. But your friends on the inflatable boat rescued you from the water in time, thus saving your life.

    How can you fail to realize the severity of the hostages' condition?

    How can you avoid any real and determined action and opportunity to save them?

    Since the State of Israel was established, its very existence is based exclusively on the wonderful reserve army, the people's army, and on the primary, uncompromised value of solidarity.

    What goes through the hostages' exhausted and humiliated minds as time goes by, day after day, with no difference between night and day, as they come to understand that you and your government have chosen not to save them?

    They are unaware of the continuous advance of the “legal coup,” the infiltration of Messianism into our lives, the destruction of the economy, the abandonment of large areas of the north of Israel and the plundering of the public funds by despicable sectors of minimal contribution and maximal impertinence. The hostages yearn only to breathe fresh air again, to enjoy sunlight and embrace their dear ones. They know, even better than we do, that their numbers are decreasing and that their horrifying future is slowly eating away at their filthy clothes, as fear of an approaching death brings them closer to losing their humanity.

    Bibi - you, who has headed our beloved country for the past 17 years, will forever be remembered as the person who failed to save the hostages. That will be the worst of all your failures.

    Acronyms and Glossary

    COGAT - Coordination of Government Activities in the Territories

    ICC - International Criminal Court in the Hague

    IJC - International Court of Justice in the Hague

    MDA - Magen David Adom - Israel Ambulance Corp

    PA - Palestinian Authority - President Mahmud Abbas, aka Abu Mazen

    PMO- Prime Minister's Office

    UAV - Unmanned Aerial vehicle, Drone. Could be used for surveillance and reconnaissance, or be weaponized with missiles or contain explosives for 'suicide' explosion mission

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