🎗️Lonny's War Update- October 346, 2023 - September 16, 2024 🎗️

  

🎗️Day 346 that 101 of our hostages in Hamas captivity
**There is nothing more important than getting them home! NOTHING!**

“I’ve never met them,

But I miss them. 

I’ve never met them,

but I think of them every second. 

I’ve never met them,

but they are my family. 

BRING THEM HOME NOW!!!”

Conventions that are no longer valid in Israel:

"All of Israel are responsible for each other"

"Don't throw me away in old age"

"We do not abandon the wounded in the field"

"God save us from them"

"never again"

We’re waiting for you, all of you.
A deal is the only way to bring
all the hostages home- the murdered for burial and the living for rehabilitation.

#BringThemHomeNow #TurnTheHorrorIntoHope

There is no victory until all of the hostages are home!

‎אין נצחון עד שכל החטופים בבית

Red Alerts - Missile, Rocket, Drone (UAV - unmanned aerial vehicles), and Terror Attacks and Death Announcements

*6:15pm yesterday - north - hostile aircraft - Kfar Szold
*6:20pm yesterday

- north - hostile aircraft - Rafting Jordan River
*7:15pm yesterday - north - rockets - Ramot Naftali
*8:00pm yesterday - terrorist stabbing attack at Damascus Gate in Jerusalem

*2:20am - north - rockets - Avivim, Yiron
*7:10am - north - rockets - Metulla
*7:15am - north - rockets - Kfar Giladi

*2:20pm- north - rockets - Shaar Yeshuv, Snir

*4:30pm - North - rockets - Madj del Shams

*5:10pm- north - rockets - Tel Hai, Kiryat Shemona, Margaliot
*6:55pm - north - rockets - Ramot Naftali

Hostage Updates 

• Mother of hostage killed in IDF strike struggles to understand how army didn’t know son was held near Hamas commander

  
  Nik Beizer, a soldier who was taken captive from his army base near the Erez checkpoint at Gaza, by Hamas terrorists on October 7, 2023 (Courtesy)

  
  Katy, mother of Cpl. Nik Beizer, tells the Walla news site she finds it difficult to believe that the military didn’t know her son and two other hostages were near a senior Hamas commander when the army launched an airstrike against him in November, killing the captives as well. 
  “It’s amazing they didn’t have intelligence, that they didn’t think there were hostages next to [Ahmed] Gandour,” she says, referring to the senior Hamas commander targeted and killed in the strike.

  “It is difficult to understand and believe this, that they didn’t think that next to someone important like him there wouldn’t be hostages” being used as human shields.

  She says she is very angry over the handling of the events of October 7, and the fact that her son, who was not a combat soldier, was kidnapped from a base, adding that he should have been evacuated before terrorists had a chance to abduct him.

• The Hostage and Missing Families Forum responds to reports that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is preparing to fire Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and replace him with New Hope chair Gideon Sa’ar.

  The families note that Sa’ar has said a proposed agreement is tantamount to “surrender” to Hamas and has advocated the use of military pressure to free the hostages, which the forum says has only led to dozens of captives being killed in Gaza.

  “Prime Minister [Benjamin] Netanyahu, this is not the time for musical chairs or to engage in political survival. It is appropriate that this week when our hostages are languishing in Hamas tunnels, all your time and efforts should be devoted to achieving the goals of the war and returning all the captives home — the living for rehabilitation and the fallen and murdered for a proper burial in their country,” the forum says. link Saar, in the past had vowed that he wouldn't again sit in a government with Netanyahu. However, he looks at the polls and knows that if elections were held today, he wouldn't make it into the Knesset. He is a political animal who, also puts his own self interests in front of those of the country. He is also a hard right winger, further right than Netanyahu in some respects, not as extreme as Smotrich and Ben Gvir, but also dangerous to our future, especially if put in as Defense Minister. He has no experience in this field, other than sitting in the cabinet and perhaps the security cabinet, but is not qualified at all to be defense minister, especially at this time with a multi-front war situation. And as far as the hostages go, he would not agree at all to a deal and is a proponent of more military force, which we know all too well is killing the hostages, not saving them. Saar is a danger to the hostages and a danger to our security.

Gaza 

•  UAE vows it won’t take part in Gaza’s ‘day after’ without Palestinian state

  Hamas said to tell ceasefire negotiators it will accept Israel remaining in Philadelphi Corridor, on condition a date is set for when it would leave and war ends completely
  

  The United Arab Emirates will not play any role in the “day after” the ongoing war in the Gaza Strip unless a Palestinian state is established, its Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed said Saturday.

  Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his far-right coalition partners staunchly oppose creating a Palestinian state after the war in Gaza, which began on October 7, 2023, when Palestinian terror group Hamas led a massive attack on southern Israel from the coastal enclave.

  “The United Arab Emirates is not ready to support the day after the war in Gaza without the establishment of a Palestinian state,” bin Zayed posted to his X account.
  

  It is not the first time the UAE’s top diplomat has set red lines over the country’s potential involvement in Gaza. Bin Zayed in May denounced a suggestion by Netanyahu that Abu Dhabi might assist local Palestinians in managing Gaza after the war.

  Bin Zayed at the time tweeted a denunciation of Netanyahu’s proposal that his country “participate in civil administration of the Gaza Strip, which is under Israeli occupation.”

  “The UAE stresses that the Israeli prime minister does not have any legal capacity to take this step, and the state refuses to be drawn into any plan aimed at providing cover for the Israeli presence in the Gaza Strip,” he added.
  Washington has repeatedly urged Israel to craft a realistic postwar plan for Gaza and warned that failure to do so could trigger lawlessness and chaos as well as a comeback by Hamas in the Palestinian territory.
  

  Netanyahu has indicated he is considering options that revolve around enabling groups unaffiliated with Hamas to manage areas of the territory with the assistance of Arab states. However, after the prime minister addressed Congress in July, a top US general said Israel has not shared much of its “day after” planning with Washington.

  Palestinians have previously said only an end to Israeli military rule and the creation of a Palestinian state will bring peace.

  The US, Egypt, and Qatar have been mediating talks for a potential three-phase ceasefire deal that would include the release of hostages. However, the negotiations have been held up with Israel and Hamas blaming each other for adding demands to a framework promoted by the US at the end of May.

  Netanyahu, for his part, has insisted that he would not agree to a deal that required Israel to withdraw from the so-called Philadelphi Corridor, which runs along the Gaza-Egypt border, citing the need to prevent Hamas from smuggling in weapons under the boundary via tunnels.
  

  Bin Zayed’s remarks came as Hamas was said to indicate it would relinquish a demand that Israel pull out from the Egypt-Gaza border during the initial stages of a proposed ceasefire deal, thereby removing what is seen as a key obstacle to a deal.

  Whereas Hamas in the past had demanded that a ceasefire deal include a complete Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, Haaretz reported Saturday that senior officials in the terror group recently told Palestinian factions in Gaza they would agree to Israel maintaining a presence along the border on condition that the deal specifies when it would eventually leave and includes a complete end to the fighting.
  

  In addition, they said they would agree to similar conditions for Israel to retain control of the strategic Netzarim Corridor, which bisects Gaza east to west. Israel says it needs to control the route during the phased ceasefire under discussion in order to prevent Hamas from moving its fighters to different areas within Gaza.

  The Hamas officials reportedly said they raised the arrangement with Egyptian and Qatari negotiators.

  Unnamed senior Palestinian officials who spoke with Hamas representatives in Qatar said that the terror group believes Netanyahu has no interest in actually signing a deal to end the war and pull out of Gaza and is prepared to drag out the fighting until after the coming US presidential election in November, according to the report.

  That assessment led Hamas to soften its stance on the Philadelphi and Netzarim corridors on condition that Israel agrees to completely end the war.

  Netanyahu has recently stressed the importance of controlling the Philadelphi Corridor, including during a recent prime-time press conference when he insisted on the need for Israeli troops to remain on the territory during the initial phase of the proposed deal. Though vague about the later stages of the ceasefire, Netanyahu was seen as indicating that Israeli forces would retain some kind of presence along the corridor for the foreseeable future.

  Despite his comments, reports say Israel has told the US it is prepared to withdraw from the corridor under the right circumstances.  full article  This isn't the first time that an Arab state said that they won't be part of the day after unless either there will be a Palestinian State of a Palestinian governing body such as the Palestinian Authority. Netanyahu has vetoed both of those possibilities and has no other realistic plan. Not a single country is willing to help rebuild Gaza unless one of those options becomes a reality, which means that Gaza will not be rebuilt because of Netanyahu's refusal. The ramifications for Israel are immense. Gaza is official occupied territory and Israel is legally bound to do what international law dictates of an occupying country. This means that, without an alternative governing body, i.e. The Palestinian Authority, Israel must itself fulfill all of the necessary civil responsibilities: health, food aid, education, rebuilding, civil infrastructure (which we destroyed most of the infrastructure before the war), security (police and legal system) and many more issues. Israel doesn't have the money or personnel to fulfil even a fraction of these issues. Netanyahu's constant 'no' to everything is going to cost us in so many different ways.

• A senior Hamas official tells AFP that the terror group has ample resources to continue fighting Israel despite losses sustained over more than 11 months of war in Gaza.

  “The resistance has a high ability to continue,” Osama Hamdan tells AFP during an interview in Istanbul. “There were martyrs and there were sacrifices… but in return, there was an accumulation of experiences and the recruitment of new generations into the resistance.”

  Hamdan says that Hamas wants “joint Palestinian rule” in Gaza once the war ends in the besieged territory.

  “Clearly we said that the next day must be Palestinian… the day after the battle is a Palestinian day,” he says.

  He adds that the United States is not doing enough to force concessions from Israel that could lead to a truce in the war in Gaza.

  “The American administration does not exert sufficient or appropriate pressure on the Israeli side,” says Hamdan. “Rather it is trying to justify the Israeli side’s evasion of any commitment.”

  He also says that today’s Houthi missile attack targeting central Israel showed the limits of Israel’s ability to defend itself.

  “It is a message to the entire region that Israel is not an immune entity,” Hamdan says.

  “Even Israeli capabilities have limits, and the possibility of developing resistance action against the Zionist entity is a serious and real possibility, not a fantasy.”

  
  

• Airstrikes across Gaza killed 18 Palestinians, officials in the Hamas-run enclave said Monday, as Israel’s military said it bombed a command center in a school, accusing the group of hiding behind civilians sheltering from the war.

  With hopes fading for a ceasefire deal that would free Israeli hostages held in Gaza and pause the war after over 11 months, a senior Hamas official boasted that the organization was far from depleted and an Israeli report suggested the army was struggling to keep fighters in the Strip from regrouping.

  A medic at Al-Awda hospital in central Gaza said 10 people were killed and 15 were injured when an airstrike hit a home in the Nuseirat refugee camp in central Gaza, citing bodies brought to the hospital. Hospital records show that the dead included a mother, her child and her five siblings. 

• The Hamas-controlled civil defense agency said another six Palestinians were killed in an airstrike during the night on a house in Gaza City’s Zeitoun neighborhood, an area that has seen several rounds of fighting.

Two more people were killed in an overnight airstrike on a house in Rafah, the agency said, and Hamas authorities later raised the death toll since fighting began to 41,226, an increase of 20 dead over the previous day.

The figures could not be confirmed, and Gazan health authorities do not differentiate between civilians and combatants.

The Israel Defense Forces did not comment on the reports, but says it only targets terror operatives and accuses Hamas and other armed groups of endangering civilians by operating in residential areas. On Sunday, the IDF said it carried out an airstrike against a group of Hamas operatives at a command room embedded within a former school in the northern Gaza Strip. 

The Ghazi Al-Shawa School in Beit Hanoun serves as a shelter for displaced Gazans, according to Palestinian media.

But the Israeli army said Hamas had commandeered part of the school to use as a hideout. It accused the terror group of using the school to prepare rocket attacks in recent weeks.

The army said it took steps to mitigate civilian harm in the strike, accusing Hamas of “systematically” using civilian sites for terror.  Full article

Northern Israel - Lebanon/Hizbollah/Syria

• Some 20 Hezbollah rocket launchers and other infrastructure were struck by Israeli fighter jets in southern Lebanon’s Jarmaq a short while ago, the IDF says.

  The military says the launchers “posed an immediate threat to Israeli civilians.”

  Meanwhile, two drones launched from Lebanon impacted the northern Golan Heights. The IDF says the drones did not hit any towns.  More footage shows the IDF strikes in southern Lebanon's Mahmoudiyeh

• A Hezbollah drone is seen flying over northern Israel, as sirens sounded in several communities in the Upper Galilee. The Home Front Command says the incident is over, without elaborating. The drone flew 30 kilometers over Israel from the time it entered from Lebanon. It flew undisturbed and was not shot down. The IDF has not issued a statement of why this happened. video of the drone flying over Israel undisturbed
  
  

• Israel’s top general commanding the restive northern frontier has reportedly begun actively lobbying leaders to okay a ground offensive into southern Lebanon with the goal of securing a buffer zone and halting over 11 months of incessant attacks on towns and communities in the Galilee, amid disagreements over the matter among politicians and defense brass.

  Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government has come under increasing pressure from both voters and lawmakers in recent weeks to deal with the threat of Iran-backed Hezbollah terrorists who have menaced northern Israel and turned areas near the border into a veritable war zone, with tens of thousands displaced from their homes due to continued and sometimes deadly drone and missile attacks.

  Defense Minister Yoav Gallant is believed to oppose a major military operation in Lebanon at this time, according to reports in Hebrew language media, while Netanyahu has appeared at least outwardly in favor of an operation, with one report suggesting he had threatened to fire Gallant over the issue.
  
  

• Maj. Gen. Ori Gordin, the head of the Israel Defense Force’s Northern Command, is pressuring decision-makers to launch a large-scale incursion into Lebanon, while Gallant and IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi have expressed doubts over launching a war against Hezbollah, thought to be a more formidable enemy than the Hamas terror group Israel is currently fighting in Gaza, Kan and Channel 13 news reported Sunday and Monday.

  According to the reports, Gallant believes now is not the right time for such action, and wants to give a chance to efforts to achieve a diplomatic solution in the north and a ceasefire-hostage deal in Gaza.

  In a call with US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin overnight, Gallant said the possibility of reaching a diplomatic solution on the border was passing, cautioning that Israel is committed to pushing Hezbollah away from the border and allowing residents to return to their homes in the north, according to a statement from the defense minister’s office Monday morning.  Hezbollah, which began launching attacks on Israel in support of Hamas a day after the Gazan group’s October 7 massacre in southern Israel, has said it will stop firing only once the war in Gaza ends, though many Israelis fear the north will remain under threat as long as Hezbollah forces are able to operate along the border.

  Gordin, according to the Israel Hayom daily, has recommended in recent closed-door meetings that the IDF be given the green light to seize and occupy a buffer zone in southern Lebanon. The report said Gordin believes pushing Hezbollah fighters away from the border would be achievable quickly, with most elite Hezbollah forces along the border having been killed in Israeli strikes or having already fled north, and with an estimated 80 percent of civilians in southern Lebanon also thought to have left the area.  Such a move would likely risk all-out war against Hezbollah, thought to have an arsenal of 150,000 rockets, including advanced precision missiles supplied by Iran that it could use to terrorize Israel for weeks. However, the reports suggested that Gordin believes such a move would secure northern Israel in the long term and obtain leverage for a more advantageous diplomatic solution. 

  Kan reported that Netanyahu is pushing for an operation in Lebanon, albeit a more limited one, with an unnamed associate of the premier threatening to replace Gallant “if [he] tries to thwart an operation in the north.”

  An unnamed government official denied the report, Kan said.

  A Channel 13 report Sunday meanwhile suggested that while Netanyahu appeared to back Gordin’s position, some have questioned if the normally risk-averse prime minister is just paying lip service to the need for military action, amid growing public cries for an end to the crisis.

  Many Israelis have bitter memories of Israel’s last attempt to create a buffer zone in southern Lebanon, which lasted from 1985 until 2000, when the government pulled out troops under intense public pressure. Hezbollah has largely had carte blanche to operate along the border ever since. The sides maintained an uneasy detente after fighting a 34-day war in 2006, until Hezbollah resumed attacks on the north on October 8 this year.  Both Hezbollah and Israel maintain publicly they are not interested in a new all-out war, which would likely cause widespread damage in Israel and destroy much of Lebanon, but are ready to fight if need be. It could also draw in other Iranian proxies, such as Yemen’s Houthis who fired a ballistic missile at Tel Aviv on Sunday, or Tehran itself.

  Speculation regarding an escalation in fighting has ramped up in recent days, with Hezbollah regularly firing volleys of dozens of rockets and explosive drones at evacuated communities in the largely uninhabited border region and at those further afield.

  Israel has responded with daily airstrikes against the group, and has assassinated some of its top commanders and hit arms depots deep inside Lebanon, according to the IDF.

  According to a Channel 13 report over the weekend, Netanyahu warned security chiefs during discussions on Thursday that Israel was facing a “large-scale confrontation” with Hezbollah, a possibility that he contended would not diminish Israel’s military pressure on Hamas in Gaza. The report stated that senior defense officials largely agreed that an operation was needed, but disagreements remain over whether Israel has the manpower necessary so long as fighting is ongoing in Gaza.

  According to a separate Saturday report by Kan, Gallant has contended that war against Hezbollah would require a reduction of forces in Gaza and could harm the chance of freeing the 101 hostages still captive in the Palestinian enclave.

  Since October 8, 26 civilian deaths have been killed in Hezbollah-led attacks from Lebanon, as well as 20 IDF soldiers and reservists. There have also been several attacks from Syria, without any injuries.

  Hezbollah has named 440 members who have been killed by Israel during the ongoing skirmishes, mostly in Lebanon but some also in Syria. Another 78 operatives from other terror groups, a Lebanese soldier, and dozens of civilians have also been killed. Link

West Bank and Jerusalem and Terror attacks within Israel

•     At least one person is wounded in a suspected stabbing attack at the Damascus Gate entrance to Jerusalem’s Old City, medics say.

  The Magen David Adom ambulance service says its medics are treating a man in his 20s who is lightly injured.

  The assailant was “neutralized” according to media reports.

  A Border Police officer was lightly wounded in the stabbing attack at the Damascus Gate entrance to Jerusalem’s Old City this evening, police say.

  According to police, the assailant attacked the officer with a sharp object, before attempting to flee into the Old City.

  Other Border Police officers then shot the assailant.

  
  

Politics and the War (general news)

•  Police Spokesperson: "Give us a chance to talk about the good things"

  Chief Superintendent Arie Doron addressed the controversy following the arrest of women who placed leaflets in a synagogue - and criticized media coverage: "You choose to report the less positive things and that's a shame" • Regarding claims that the police have become politicized, he said: "It's a strong and independent body, the Police Commissioner acts independently" • On police failures he said: "The Commissioner has only been in the role for a month. We need to give time, there will be change" • Edelstein on the controversy: "Full backing for the police"

  Chief Superintendent Arie Doron, police spokesperson, addressed on "Today's Edition" (Sunday) various recent events linked to the police that stirred controversy. For example, regarding the arrest and handcuffing of three women who placed leaflets with pictures of hostages in a synagogue where MK Yuli Edelstein prays, he said: "The incident was received by the police as a break-in event."

  "When such an incident is received, from the officers' perspective, a break-in occurred. There was testimony from one of the synagogue's gabbaim about a break-in at the location. We know that Torah scrolls and charity boxes are stolen from synagogues, and that's how they treated the incident," Chief Superintendent Doron claimed.

  "When the images of the incident were published after reaching those women, the Police Commissioner saw them and requested an investigation into the matter," the police spokesperson continued. "When the images were in the Tel Aviv district, they hadn't yet reached the Commissioner... The officers didn't do anything to harm those women. They didn't act out of any agenda towards one woman or another."

  

  Images of the 'major crime' that the 3 women are accused of - placing flyers of the hostages in the synagogue in Herzlia that Knesset Member Yuli Edelstein prays. It has a picture of Edelstein from when he was imprisoned in the USSR as a Prisoner of Zion (government refusal to let him leave and move to Israel). The idea is that someone who was imprisoned for being Jewish would have the necessary empathy and sympathy to fight for the hostages who are in captivity for being Israelis and Jews (most of the hostages). Unfortunately, like the rest of this government, Edelstein has sold his soul for political interests.
  
  

  Did the police err in handcuffing the women in front of their children on Friday evening? Is this the way to behave? "I think that's why the Police Commissioner asked to examine it. I could add more, but a Police Internal Investigations Department investigation has been opened and as police we can't add things on the matter. There's a Police Internal Investigations Department investigation," Doron claimed.

  The police spokesperson was asked about the break-in events at the Beit Lid base, where soldiers were attacked, and despite the attackers being filmed, no one was arrested. "I'm sure that investigative actions are being taken there too, covert or overt, and I assume that when the actions in this incident come out, you'll hear about it."

  Regarding the incident at the synagogue where MK Edelstein prays, Doron said: "The suspicion was a written complaint about suspected break-in. That person from the synagogue reported that a break-in occurred at the synagogue and the police acted according to break-in protocol. Later, the details became clear and actions were taken." Was it a mistake to arrest them? "I can't get into this specific issue because a Police Internal Investigations Department investigation has been opened."

  Regarding claims that something has changed in the police and that it's "too attentive to the commander's spirit" and that not all parts of society can rely on the police as before, the spokesperson replied: "In the State of Israel there is one police force, Israel Police. You in the studios choose to attach it to a political side. The police is an independent body, the Commissioner acts independently, he knows how to manage the police, he's a field man and he's done every role, he knows how to lead the police. It's strong and independent." After ministers in the government told each other "Learn from Ben Gvir, we need to appoint someone of our own," feelings arose in the government that Ben Gvir is succeeding in appointing his people to top police positions. To this the spokesperson replied: "You don't expect the Israel Police spokesperson to give you a political answer, I have no answer to give you, it's a political answer par excellence."

  The police spokesperson doesn't know how to defend appointments made in the police? "Regarding what was said in the government, I'm not willing to comment. Regarding the appointments, I can say that after the Commissioner interviewed all the chief superintendents and superintendents in the police, and chose the best team from his perspective to lead the police in the coming years, the Commissioner 'knows police' and 'understands police'. I have no doubt that the police will make the positive change. I remind you - we're exactly a month into the role. The Commissioner is exactly a month into the role, it's right to give the Commissioner the proper opportunity, and the change will come."

  Regarding the 80-year-old who fell during a confrontation with a police officer near Minister Yoav Kish's house, Chief Superintendent Doron said: "There was a protest there, an illegal gathering. We tried to disperse it in a nicer way, it developed to the point where the officer reached that person and asked him to leave the place. You can also see in the video the officer falling together with the person, and picking up his glasses for him. There was no intention, God forbid, to knock down that person, the officers are Israel Police officers, they are your and my officers, and in every studio you sit in you only tell about the not-good things that the officers do."

  "You need to bring also the good things that the police do for the citizens of the State of Israel," the police spokesperson continued. "True, not everything is perfect, but I won't come to say in the studio that everything is perfect. There are good things, you choose to bring those less good and that's a shame."

  Regarding the record number of murders in Israel in criminal incidents, and the fear of some to walk in the street and the sense of lack of personal security, the police spokesperson said: "What's the suggestion? What's the suggestion actually? That we stop enforcing? That we stop enforcing the offenses? We are less professional because we enforce offenses that are not to the liking? In the incident of the illegal gathering in front of a minister's house, there's a protocol of distance from officials' houses. We asked those people to leave the place, and they refused. We tried to help them leave from there, they fell together, no one did anything there intentionally, and certainly not to harm that person."

  We asked Chief Superintendent Doron where the failure is, after all the police received budgets and yet - the situation only keeps deteriorating. "The Commissioner is only a month into the role. We need to give the right time, there will be change. I'm not saying everything is okay, there's what to change and we will change."

  "There are 32 thousand officers for 10 million residents in the country. We are a small police force for a big country," police spokesperson Chief Superintendent Arie Doron continued. "We'll do the best we can. There's one incident and it's imposed on the entire police, it's not right to do that. The officers work very hard, they care about the citizens and I suggest that next time I come to the studio you give the opportunity to tell about the good things."

  Chairman of the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee MK Yuli Edelstein responded this evening to the controversy that erupted following the arrests in the synagogue where he prays, and backed the officers: "I understand the synagogue people who filed a complaint with the police about a break-in. I give full backing to the police. Many words of thanks to the police for the fact that in addition to all their tasks they are forced to protect me and the synagogue against all kinds of rioters."  link

• Yemen ballistic missile attack shows why time is not on Israel’s side - comment

  Time might have been on Israel’s side for significant portions of the current war, but it no longer is and likely has not been since April-May. 

  Yemen’s ballistic missile attack on Israel on Sunday made this clearer than ever. 

  Too much of the conversation about how long the war should go revolves around whether more military pressure can crack Hamas and get the Israeli hostages back versus whether a deal must be cut now, even if Hamas remains in power, so as to get the hostages back as time runs out for them. Too little of the conversation takes into account how much more vulnerable Israel is becoming to attack on new fronts. Regarding these new fronts, Israel might never have taken direct hits or might have avoided taking direct hits for years or decades more if not for the length of this war, gradually exposing additional asymmetric holes in Israel’s military power.

  In order of current severity, Israel is facing seven fronts of attack: Lebanon, Iran, Yemen, the West Bank, Gaza, Syria, and Iraq. That’s right: Gaza is now probably only the fifth most dangerous front militarily, even though Israel is still treating it as the most important in terms of military resources (and diplomatically, it may be the most important front.)  

  Originally, when longer meant from October until January, part of the purpose of being willing to drag out the war longer was to take the necessary time to defeat Hamas in different pockets of Gaza while leaving time to move the Palestinian civilian population from place to place in between invasions.

  Another part was to use the mix of ongoing pressure and threats of continued impending military invasions and pressure to wear Hamas down into cutting a deal to return the Israeli hostages.

  A third part was that a slower war using strategic air strikes, tanks, and artillery as a prelude to infantry invasions of various areas meant fewer infantry casualties.

  The theory was that Israel’s air defense was strong enough to withstand whatever Hamas could fire on the home front up until the point that the IDF destroyed most of Hamas’s rocket firing capability around December-January.

  But all of this was assuming the war with Hamas would end around January – the official estimate of all defense officials in October-November – and that the other fronts would stay relatively quiet.

  But as the war drew on, Hezbollah started firing on a larger number of northern towns and cities; Yemen joined the war, at first only against Eilat, but eventually also striking Tel Aviv, and now aiming again for central Israel.

  Iran started pushing much harder to threaten Israel from the West Bank, Syria, and Iraq, as well as encouraging its proxies in Lebanon and Yemen to take more risks against Israel.

  Israel's increasing tolerance for terrorism

  Prior to the war, Israel had come to terms with a horrible, nearly 20-year-long conceit that it would be “ok” with low-level rocket and other attacks on its Gaza corridor villages as long as this did not touch the rest of the country.

  From March 2022 until October 7, 2023, most of Israel came to terms with it being “ok” for significant waves of terror against Jews in the West Bank as long as not too much of it crossed the Green Line.

  Starting on October 8, 2023, Israel decided it was “ok” for 60,000 northern residents to be evacuated from their homes and for whole towns and cities to be ghost towns, not just for a few weeks, but for nearly a year and counting with no deadline in sight.

  Then, it was “ok” for Eilat to be attacked from time to time by the Houthis as long as the missiles were shot down outside of Israeli airspace.

  On April 13-14, it became “ok” for Iran to launch over 300 aerial threats at Israel as long as a remarkable number of the threats were shot down, people were not killed, and Israel got to “deter” Tehran in a retaliatory strike against its S-300 anti-aircraft missile system on April 19.

  It was "ok" that Israel got into a huge fight about a partial arms freeze with the US in May and that the International Criminal Court and International Court of Justice, which had warned Israel but stayed on the sidelines from October to May, went more all out after the Jewish state in May.

  It was “ok” that Hezbollah in August wanted to target 11 IDF bases and northern Tel Aviv key intelligence headquarters as long as the military preemptively struck hard enough on August 25 that Hezbollah’s main goals were thwarted.

  The truth is that many of Israel’s nuanced approaches would have worked if the war had ended a long time ago or shortly after the nuanced retaliation.

  And there were critics of Israel bashing it from November onward.

  But when time continues to drag on, Israel’s enemies on many fronts have more time to dissect the way the IDF operates and when and where it lets its guard down more, and then get lots of chances to test the many potential holes. When time drags on, Israel's legitimacy problems move from critics to its top allies like the US, UK, and France and metastasize with the international courts from a minor problem to a major crisis.

  On Thursday of last week, I was in Rafah in Gaza. There were no Palestinians to be seen. No battles. No gunfire. I had my helmet and flak jacket, and they moved us around in a Namer armored vehicle. I felt as safe as could be. Of course, there are still thousands of Hamas terrorists in Gaza, and if anyone ignores them as we did on October 7, there could be another disaster in Israel’s future.

  But right now, they can barely pose a threat to IDF forces a block away from them – and that only if the forces are not in Namers and lack air and tank support - let alone to anyone outside of Gaza.

  This morning, waking up at 6:21 a.m. in Modiin to rocket sirens after months of quiet, not knowing whether Hezbollah or Iran was firing missiles at us, only to then learn that it was the Houthis, I felt far less safe than I had in Gaza.

  When I traveled to Paatei Modiin Train Station Platform 4 this morning and saw the impact of shrapnel on an escalator I have walked on a thousand times, it was clear how many people could have been killed if the Houthis had fired an hour or two later than 6:21 a.m. This is without even getting to the mass mayhem and death that even one ballistic missile getting through to a populated area could cause.

  How the war should end, and whether it should be with a quick ceasefire to get back the hostages or with a relatively quick but intense major invasion of Lebanon, synchronized with major strikes on other parties threatening Israel, is an important debate.

  Yet, whichever direction is chosen, Israel should pick a direction and act to wrap things up rapidly and decisively.

  And anyone who thinks that the war can just continue with no price on these other fronts beyond Gaza until after the US elections in November is kidding themselves and ignoring the writing on the wall on a grossly negligent and serial basis.    link since the beginning of the war, the political echelon (prime minister) has not had any strategic direction or strategic decisions, so it is no wonder that we are in this total mess and there is no end in site. Yet, this worthless government allows it to continue and doesn't demand even a statement of strategy by the Prime Minister because they make all their decisions based on their own political interests and not the real interests of the country. Besides the fact that this is the most extreme government in our history, it is also the worst failure in just about every area of governing, but none of them are prepared to take any responsibility for their actions, and worse, for their inactions. This government and this prime minister have placed Israel in the most dangerous position ever and it is getting worse internally and externally with every passing day. 

  
  

• Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is preparing to fire Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and is considering appointing New Hope chairman Gideon Sa’ar as his replacement, national broadcaster Kan reports, citing an official within the Prime Minister’s Bureau.

  Following the report, far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir tweets that he had been demanding Gallant’s ouster for months “and the time has come to do so immediately.”

  Rumors that Netanyahu would replace Gallant have been circulating for months, with Sa’ar denying in July that he had received an offer that would bring him back into the coalition.

  In August, Channel 12 reported that alleged discussions aimed at having Sa’ar take over at the Defense Ministry had broken down after the premier’s wife and advisers indicated that they would not trust the hawkish former Likud politician as defense minister.

  According to Channel 12, Sa’ar had demanded the defense portfolio but was rebuffed, instead being offered other roles such as foreign or justice minister rather than anything related to national security.

  A spokesman for Sa’ar denied the report, telling The Times of Israel at the time that “there were no negotiations so there was no breakdown.”

  As trust has dwindled between Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, rumors have begun circulating that the prime minister was prepared to offer the position to Sa’ar, whose New Hope party quit the coalition earlier this year after its leader was denied a spot on the now-defunct war cabinet.

  Sa’ar has since harshly criticized the government’s management of the war in Gaza and has said he would be willing to make “concessions” to create a right-wing bloc opposing Netanyahu.

  Relations between Gallant and Netanyahu have been tense ever since Netanyahu announced he was firing Gallant in March 2023 over his criticism of the government’s judicial overhaul — before reversing course two weeks later under intense public pressure.

  Members of Netanyahu’s cabinet have been calling for Gallant’s termination for months, angered, among other issues, by his opposition to an ultra-Orthodox enlistment bill backed by the government and his public break with the prime minister over a hostage deal and control over the so-called Philadelphi Corridor in Gaza.

  In a statement, the Prime Minister’s Office says that reports of negotiations with Gideon Sa’ar “are incorrect.”

  Sa’ar also denied the report, with a spokesman stating “there is nothing new in this matter.” link  It is the worst kept 'secret' that Netanyahu wants to fire Galant as Defense Minister. Galant, especially in the last couple of months has been openly defiant of Netanyahu's statements and claims and has come short of calling him a liar, which we all know that he is. Galant took a long time but finally recognized and now publicly states that the most important thing now is to make a deal and get the hostages home, even at the cost of ending the war. This is in direct opposition to Netanyahu's stance as ending the war in Gaza will likely cause his extreme coalition partners to bolt the government which will bring new elections - Netanyahu's nightmare. In addition, Galant has been pushing for a diplomatic solution in the north and not war, and to get the northern resident refugees back home. The most expedient diplomatic solution in the north would be the end the war in the south, get the hostages home and work with our allies on a strong diplomatic settlement with Lebanon which will have to be imposed on Hizbollah. And the ultimate benefit is that it forestalls a full regional conflict which would include Iran. Netanyahu, however is looking towards a war in the north, despite the fact that it would most likely cause even more northern residents to be displaced for an unknown period of time, cost lots of lives on both sides, including multitudes of civilians on both sides, force hundred of thousands reservist into another long enduring war with a much more powerful enemy who is far better equipped and trained than Hamas along with lots of loss of soldiers' lives, the economic costs of a major war, the weariness of the world with our wars bringing about further isolation and loss of allies together with increase of enemies, total elimination of any chance of normalization with Saudi Arabia and other Arab and Muslim countries, all for the political and personal interests of our megalomaniac Netanyahu. He has to be stopped for the well being of the country and all of the residents. We need elections now!

• Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is set to hold a special meeting tomorrow on changes to the status quo on the Temple Mount, in light of National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir’s repeated statements declaring that Jewish prayer is now permitted at the flashpoint holy site in Jerusalem.

  According to Hebrew media reports, the meeting is being held at the urging of the security establishment and will be attended by the Defense, Foreign, Justice and Strategic Affairs ministers. National broadcaster Kan reported on Sunday that security officials have warned that changes to the status quo could lead to an escalation in attacks against Israel.

  In August, Ben Gvir stood on the Temple Mount and, for the third time in as many months, declared the end to the longstanding status quo governing the contentious Jerusalem holy site. This prompted a quick rebuff from Netanyahu, who reasserted his support for restrictions on Jewish worship at the site where the two Jewish Temples once stood and which is now the home of the Dome of the Rock and Al Aqsa Mosque.

  The vague status quo governing the compound allows Muslims to pray and enter with few restrictions, while non-Muslims, including Jews, can visit only during limited time slots via a single gate, with visibly religious Jews only allowed to walk on a predetermined route, closely accompanied by police. While Jews are not officially allowed to pray, police have increasingly tolerated limited prayer.

  Under Ben Gvir, Jews, who in years past would have been removed for merely silently mouthing a prayer, have even begun prostrating themselves on the mount. He has also expressed support for a synagogue being placed atop the Temple Mount.

  Religious Services Ministry director general Yehudah Avidan stated that “there is absolutely no budget for a synagogue on the Temple Mount” and there has been “no policy change,” Army Radio reported. link We all know, including Netanyahu, that Ben Gvir is a pyromaniac who is hell bent on setting the Middle East on fire and wants an explosion to suit his messianic ideologies. Ben Gvis has publicly announced several times that the status quo for Jews to pray on the Temple Mount has changed and Jews can now come as they want and pray as they want. Netanyahu has rebuffed this statement and said that the status quo has not changed. Even though, this upcoming meeting is at the behest of the security establishment, due to the danger that Ben Gvir's statements have already caused, Netanyahu has been allowing Ben Gvir to run wildly and change the status of many things including the operations of the Israel police. We all need to fear Ben Gvir's actions and Netanyahu's appeasements.

The Region and the World

•   The Strengthening of Political Islam in Jordan Complicates Matters for the King

  The parliamentary elections in Jordan took place at an inconvenient time for Abdullah, against the backdrop of the war in Gaza and the deadly attack at the Allenby Bridge crossing • The King entered the elections with three goals - not all of which were achieved • In the kingdom, they understand well that the lurking dangers are not only from Iran, but also from growing internal pressure • Analysis

  Jordan has recently come into focus following the murder of three Israelis at the Allenby Bridge crossing. The murder raised anew the fear in Israel of a security deterioration that could occur mainly due to Iran's attempts to recruit armed individuals for terrorist actions against Israel and to undermine the Hashemite regime.

  The terrorist act diverted attention from another important event - the parliamentary elections - held every four years. The timing was obviously not convenient for the King against the backdrop of the war in Gaza, the worsening economic situation, and also the terrorist attack that occurred two days earlier.

  The elections were held against the backdrop of a liberalization process led by the King in recent years with three goals: First, to increase the power of parties and integrate them into the political system. Out of 130 members in the outgoing House of Representatives, 118 were independents, with only 12 representing four parties. Achieving this goal carried the fear of strengthening the Islamic Action Front - the political arm of the Muslim Brotherhood movement. Therefore, in the new election system, each citizen voted for two candidates: a representative from a national list and a representative from a district list. It was determined that two-thirds of the seats would be allocated to district list representatives (97) and the rest to national list representatives (41) in a House of Representatives of 138 seats, assuming that this would weaken the Islamic party. But this was not the case: Although there are now 12 parties (three times as many as before), it tripled its strength and its representatives (31 in number) constitute about 23% of the new House of Representatives members.

  The second goal was to increase the representation of women and young people in order to respond to the aspirations of sectors that traditionally were not represented in politics. In fact, King Abdullah has been working for years to promote the status of women and young people in the kingdom. This goal saw significant progress compared to the past. In the new House of Representatives, more women will serve: 27 out of 138 seats (almost a fifth), instead of 15 women out of 130 (11.5%) in the outgoing House of Representatives.

  The third goal of the changes and reforms was to increase public confidence in politics. A survey by the Center for Strategic Studies in Amman in May 2023 shows that most Jordanians do not believe in political parties and think they have failed; only 2% follow their activities; only one percent knows the names of party leaders or considers joining one of the parties. This goal has not been achieved, for now, as only about a third of the electorate actually voted, slightly more than in the previous elections.

  The achievement of the Islamic Front is not surprising; in the last two years there has been a significant increase in the rate of support for political Islam in all Middle Eastern countries and many supported the integration of Islamic parties into local politics. A survey conducted by the Arab Barometer in May 2023 shows that about 50% of residents in Jordan declared not only that they read religious texts and pray daily, but also expressed a desire to see Islamic parties playing a more important role in politics. Against the backdrop of Jordanians' support for political Islam in the country, there was also great support for the Hamas movement, even though its activity is prohibited by law. About 57% of the Jordanian public supported Hamas even before the outbreak of the war.

  The timing of the war played into their hands

  With the outbreak of the war, the Muslim Brotherhood stood by the Palestinians and expressed solidarity with the Hamas movement. They organized demonstrations of support for the movement near the Israeli embassy in Amman and in other places, collected donations and mobilized food packages, equipment and clothing to assist Palestinians in the Gaza Strip. They maintained ties with Hamas leaders and supported the continuation of the campaign and the recruitment of Jordanian volunteers for terrorist attacks against Israel. Thus, the timing of the war played into the hands of the Islamic Action Front, as it managed to integrate Palestinian resistance into its election propaganda.

  Support for the Muslim Brotherhood, as the elections proved, is not limited only to residents of large cities, but is broader and deeper. Their support base today is also peripheral cities and among Bedouin tribes. Peripheral areas, considered economically weak and lacking proper infrastructure, have traditionally supported Islamic movements and sometimes even expressed support for Islamic terrorist organizations. One of these peripheral areas is the Ma'an Governorate in southern Jordan, from which Maher Diab al-Jazi came, the terrorist who carried out the murder of the three Israelis at the Allenby Bridge crossing.

  In recent years, it is actually the "original" Jordanian citizens who are more active among the Islamic Action Front, including its representatives in the House of Representatives. On the other hand, Palestinians in the kingdom have shown loyalty to the Hashemite regime in recent years and did not take part in subversion or mass demonstrations held against the regime during the "Arab Spring" period or afterwards. Their extensive involvement in the Jordanian economy is one of the factors for this.

  
  Signs saying "Death to Israel"

  To what extent should Israel be concerned about the election result? Historically, it is worth emphasizing that this is not the first time that the Muslim Brotherhood has received relatively broad support. They reached the peak of their power in the 1989 elections, when they managed to bring 22 representatives to the House of Representatives, which then consisted of 80 seats, so their power then stood at a quarter of all representatives.

  Just as King Hussein knew how to manage foreign policy in a measured and balanced manner, and despite the opposition of the Brotherhood signed the peace agreement with Israel in 1994, so King Abdullah will have to navigate between national strategic considerations and local political interests. It seems that the House of Representatives will now be more nationalist and critical towards Israel and the West in general. Militant declarations, anti-Semitic slogans, and calls for canceling the peace agreement and expelling the ambassador will likely resurface. The King understands well that the dangers lurking at his doorstep are not only from Iran, but also from strengthening political Islam. In light of these threats, King Abdullah will continue to work behind the scenes to preserve the strategic alliance with the West and with Israel - an alliance that serves as a support for the survival of the Hashemite rule.

  >>> Prof. Eli Podeh teaches in the Department of Islamic and Middle Eastern Studies at the Hebrew University and is a member of the board of directors of Mitvim; Prof. Ronen Yitzhak is the head of the Middle Eastern Studies Division at Western Galilee Academic College   link
  
  

• The ballistic missile launched by the Iran-backed Houthis from Yemen at central Israel this morning was hit by an interceptor missile, although it did not manage to completely destroy the target, according to an Israeli Air Force probe.

  The missile had been identified upon launch from northwestern Yemen early this morning, and the Arrow long-range defense system was activated to intercept it. Several interceptor missiles were launched at the target in attempts to down it.

  At least one of the Arrow interceptors hit the missile, but did not destroy it completely, the probe finds. Instead, the interceptor caused the Houthi missile to break apart in the air, and the warhead, as well as other pieces, fell to the ground.

  The missile shrapnel impacted open areas in the Ben Shemen forest, close to Kfar Daniel, sparking a fire. Shrapnel from the interceptors also hit a train station near Modiin, causing slight damage.

  The IAF found that the missile, which had a straight trajectory, was not a hypersonic projectile, as the Houthis claimed.

• Germany's Silent Arms Embargo on Israel: "Only a Handful of Requests Approved, the Rest Are Dried Up"

  According to "Bild", Israel requested thousands of shells and additional munitions from Germany - but the requests are waiting in Berlin, while heavy weapon systems are being sold to Qatar. Behind the scenes: internal debates between the Chancellor's Office and the National Security Council versus the Foreign Ministry. The numbers, and the support Israel received nonetheless from the Germans throughout the war

  The German government is rejecting Israeli requests to purchase various weapons, but approving the sale of heavy weapon systems to Qatar, which even finances Hamas. This was reported tonight (Sunday) by the German "Bild". The article suggests that Germany is implementing a "quiet embargo" on Israel. Last year, the government requested to purchase thousands of shells for tanks, along with requests for additional munitions - but Berlin has not yet made a decision regarding the sale.

  On the other hand, according to "Bild", in the first half of 2024, the German government approved the sale of weapons worth slightly more than 100 million euros to Qatar. "For the Jewish state, currently fighting on several fronts against the terrorist organizations Hamas and Hezbollah, the purchase of certain military equipment from abroad is particularly important," "Bild" wrote. Sources familiar with the matter said that almost all of Israel's requests since the outbreak of the war to purchase weapons from Germany are delayed - and only a handful of requests were approved. Although no decision was made not to sell to Israel, the requests have been dried up for a long time - which smells like a de facto arms embargo. This delay comes against the backdrop of internal debates within Germany between the Chancellor's Office and the National Security Council who support selling weapons to Israel - versus the German Foreign Ministry which opposes it.

  However, it's important to emphasize that Germany supports Israel in international organizations and has thwarted quite a few initiatives against Israel. However, when it comes to arms sales, its position is complex and the German government is not considered a monolith. The statements of German leaders have been very empathetic since the outbreak of the war - and they are certainly saying the right things, and have expressed solidarity with Israel both in statements and in visits. The "Shomrim" website and the Austrian magazine Profil reported that since March, Germany has not approved any request for arms export to Israel, compared to 20 million euros last year. Since the beginning of the year, the volume of offensive weapons exports (as opposed to security equipment intended for defense such as helmets or vests) has plummeted from about 20 million euros in 2023 to only about 32,000 euros since the beginning of this year.

  Even regarding the export of defensive security equipment, there was a dramatic drop this year. In 2023, the volume of this export stood at more than 300 million euros, while in 2024 it plummeted to only 14 million. 2023 was, due to the war, an exceptional year in terms of the volume of security exports from Germany to Israel, but even an examination of the data over the years reveals the low: this is the lowest export volume since 2004. The plunge in military exports from Germany to Israel comes against the backdrop of international pressure on Israel to avoid harming innocent civilians in the war in Gaza - where the Palestinian death toll has reached more than 40,000 people. Pro-Palestinian activists have been demonstrating throughout the war demanding an arms embargo, especially from Israel's main supplier - the US: The Biden administration firmly rejects these calls and the American president approved a huge aid package for Israel, but did restrict earlier this year shipments of heavy bombs for fear they would lead to civilian casualties. Pressure to impose an embargo was also applied for many months on Britain, and at the beginning of the month the Labor government in London announced the suspension of about 30 arms export licenses to Israel - out of about 350. In Britain, they emphasized that this is not an arms embargo, and explained that the decision was made after a review they conducted determined that there is a "clear risk" that the weapons could lead to "a significant violation of international law". According to a report in "Politico", British Foreign Secretary David Lammy said that Britain may change the decision if a ceasefire is reached in the Gaza Strip and international human rights organizations are given access to Palestinian prisoners in Israeli prisons.

  The British emphasized that the move would not affect Israel's ability to defend itself. In Israel, this was confirmed and it was said that although the British move is disappointing and sends a very bad message to Israel's enemies - no operational damage will be caused to the IDF. The British suspended weapon licenses for spare parts for F-16 fighter jets, parts for drones, parts for naval systems and guidance equipment. Israel can easily find substitutes for these parts in other countries.

  One of the most important components that Israel receives from Britain, spare parts for F-35 aircraft, the British excluded due to their commitments to the US. A ban on the transfer of spare parts for the stealth fighter jets was actually imposed in the Netherlands, by a court decision which the government there opposed, but it was reported in the country that the spare parts are still being transferred to Israel - in indirect ways. In the context of international pressure, one can also mention France's decision in May to ban the participation of Israeli companies in a large weapons exhibition in Paris, as a protest against the operation in Rafah.  link

Personal Stories

  

Acronyms and Glossary

COGAT - Coordination of Government Activities in the Territories

ICC - International Criminal Court in the Hague

IJC - International Court of Justice in the Hague

MDA - Magen David Adom - Israel Ambulance Corp

PA - Palestinian Authority - President Mahmud Abbas, aka Abu Mazen

PMO- Prime Minister's Office

UAV - Unmanned Aerial vehicle, Drone. Could be used for surveillance and reconnaissance, or be weaponized with missiles or contain explosives for 'suicide' explosion mission

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