🎗️Lonny's War Update- October 477, 2023 - January 25, 2025 🎗️

🎗️Day 477 that 90 of our hostages in Hamas captivity
**There is nothing more important than getting them home! NOTHING!**

“I’ve never met them,

But I miss them. 

I’ve never met them,

but I think of them every second. 

I’ve never met them,

but they are my family. 

BRING THEM HOME NOW!!!”

We’re waiting for you, all of you.
A deal is the only way to bring
all the hostages home- the murdered for burial and the living for rehabilitation.

#BringThemHomeNow #TurnTheHorrorIntoHope

There is no victory until all of the hostages are home!

‎אין נצחון עד שכל החטופים בבית

Red Alerts - Missile, Rocket, Drone (UAV - unmanned aerial vehicles), and Terror Attacks and Death Announcements

*

Hostage Updates 

• IDF officials say 4 released hostages in relatively good physical condition

  

  Israeli soldiers held hostage by Hamas, who are due to be released on January 25, 2025: Top (L-R) Karina Ariev, Daniella Gilboa; bottom (L-R) Naama Levy, Liri Albag. (Courtesy)

  Released hostage soldiers Karina Ariev, Daniella Gilboa, Naama Levy and Liri Albag are in relatively good physical condition, military officials say.

  The four were checked by army doctors when they were handed over to the IDF by the Red Cross inside Gaza.

  “Their medical condition is normal, with no findings that require special medical intervention on the ground,” the officials say.

  They will undergo further assessments by doctors and mental health officers at an army base near the border, before being taken to a hospital. link For the second time this week, the eyes of everyone have been glued to the television watching every moment from the time the Red Cross vehicles arrive at the location in Gaza where they will receive the 4 young women who were kidnapped from their base along with 2 others (Agam Berger, who is supposed to be released next Saturday and Noa Marciano who was killed in Gaza) and 15 of their fellow observers who were killed. They are in Israel and with their families but 90 other hostages are still being held in Gaza. We don't know how many are still alive. This deal which will release a total of 33 hostages (living and dead) is a bad deal. It is over 6 long weeks and at the end, there will still be 64 hostages in Gaza.
  The deal that should have been was my brother's deal that Hamas was willing to do, a 3 week plan for all the 90 hostages and an end to the war. Instead, we have all this time that we don't know who will come home, alive and dead, when they will come and if the deal will be broken by either side and leave the remaining hostage in Gaza. If it was up to the extremist Smotrich and Ben Gvir, the deal would end immediately, the war would continue and the hostages would be left to die. 
  Only sometime next week, on the 16th day of the ceasefire will the sides even begin to talk about stage 2 of the deal which is supposed to bring home the rest of the living hostages. But there are no details, no agreements, nothing of phase 2 except the fact that Hamas won't agree to any continuous of any deal that doesn't guarantee the end of the war. If Netanyahu will finally agree to end the war, Smotrich will almost definitely leave the government and try to bring it down. The opposition parties of Ganz, Lapid, Yair Golan have all promised Netanyahu that they will provide a safety net to not bring down the government until the deal completes and all the hostages are home, but that does mean that Netanyahu will then have to agree to early elections. The big question is who will bend Netanyahu to their side and the final decision: Smotrich or Trump. If he goes with Smotrich, his government continues and he stays Prime Minister which is the most important thing for him. But he will piss off Trump and Trump will certainly make Netanyahu pay; we don't know how but it will cost Netanyahu personally. If he goes with Trump, which is what most analysts believe, Smotrich will bolt the government and there will be early elections but Trump will somehow back Netanyahu and give him something big, something like normalization with Saudi Arabia, if Trump can get the Saudis to drop their demands regarding a Palestinian State. No one has the answer but most of the Israeli population want all the hostages home even if it means ending the war. Unfortuately, Netanyahu's decision will have nothing to do with what the public overwhelmingly want. His decision will be based on one thing and one thing only, what he believes will be best for him personally and politically.

  
  

• IDF chief: Return of hostage soldiers ‘an integral part of our victory in war’
  

  IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi says the return of hostage soldiers Karina Ariev, Daniella Gilboa, Naama Levy, and Liri Albag is “an integral part of our victory in war.”

  “We are committed to returning all the hostages, civilians and soldiers,” Halevi says at a command center during the release of the four hostages. link Due to political reasons, he isn't saying the full statement: "This is our total victory!" 

• First photos show tears and hugs as Karina Ariev, Daniella Gilboa, Naama Levy and Liri Albag are reunited with their parents
  

  

  Naama Levy is seen with her mother after being freed from Hamas captivity on January 25, 2025 (Israel Defense Forces)
  

  Released hostage Liri Albag is seen with her parents after being freed from Hamas captivity on January 25, 2025 (Israel Defense Forces)
  

  Released hostage Karina Ariev is seen with her parents after being freed from Hamas captivity on January 25, 2025 (Israel Defense Forces)
  

  Released hostage Danielle Gilboa is seen with her parents after being freed from Hamas captivity on January 25, 2025 (Israel Defense Forces)

  Released hostage Liri Albag in helicopter selfie: ‘I love you citizens of Israel, I’m back!’

  

  Released hostage Liri Albag along with her parents Eli and Shira on a military helicopter on January 25, 2025 (Courtesy)
• Hostages’ families block Tel Aviv highway, demanding PM stick to all three phases of ceasefire
  

  

  Families of Israelis held hostage by Hamas terrorists in Gaza, along with activists block the Ayalon Highway in Tel Aviv, during a protest calling for the captives' release, January 24, 2025. (Erik Marmor/Flash90)

  Dozens of family members of the hostages and the families’ supporters have blocked Tel Aviv’s major highway in a protest demanding that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu not succumb to pressure from his far-right coalition partners to resume the war before the hostage deal is fully implemented.

  “Going back to war will be a death sentence for those left behind. We are intensifying our struggle and will not let extremists who are out of touch with the people and who are working against Israel’s interests bury the hostages in the tunnels,” the families say in a joint statement.

• List of names published by Hamas violates terms of hostage deal
  

  The list of names published by Hamas of the hostages the terror group is set to release tomorrow is in apparent violation of the ceasefire agreement, The Times of Israel has learned.

  Under the agreement, female civilians are to be released first, then female soldiers, followed by the elderly, and then those who are deemed extremely ill.

  Israeli officials have requested that media outlets not publish the names until the families of the hostages have been notified.

  Senior Israeli officials hold consultations on how to respond to Hamas violation of hostage deal
  

  

  Members of security forces loyal to Hamas stand guard in front of a destroyed police compound in Gaza City, on January 22, 2025, on the fourth day of a ceasefire in the war between Israel and Hamas. (Omar AL-QATTAA / AFP)

  Senior Israeli officials are holding consultations regarding how to respond to the list of hostages that Hamas has released that violates the terms of the deal.

  The agreement requires Hamas to release all of the female civilian hostages before moving on to the category of female soldiers, followed by elderly hostages, followed by seriously ill hostages.

  On Wednesday, Israel conveyed to Hamas that it expects the terror group to free hostage Arbel Yehud in this weekend’s release of four hostages.

  Yehud is among the civilian hostages held by Gaza terrorists, and, as a female civilian, should be in the next batch freed. However, she is thought to be held by the Palestinian Islamic Jihad terror group and not Hamas, apparently leading to concern in Jerusalem that Hamas may attempt to put off her release.

  Israel has a host of options before it regarding how to respond to the Hamas violation.

  It could pull out of its commitment to allow Palestinians to return to northern Gaza on Saturday or it could change or limit the list of Palestinian prisoners it is supposed to release that day.

• Hamas: Israel ‘delaying implementation’ of truce deal by not allowing Palestinians to go back to north Gaza
  

  Hamas in an official statement says Israel is “still delaying the implementation of the terms of the ceasefire” and hostage deal by not allowing displaced Palestinians to return to the northern Gaza Strip.

  “We hold the occupation responsible for any disruption in implementing the agreement and its repercussions on the rest of the stations [of the agreement],” Hamas adds.

  Under the deal, Israel was to withdraw from part of the Netzarim Corridor tomorrow and allow Palestinians to return to northern Gaza via the coastal road.

  Israel has said it will not allow Gazans to reach the north of the Strip until Hamas “arranges” the release of civilian Arbel Yehud, who was supposed to be freed today.

  There is talk in the Israeli media that Hamas may release Arbel Yehud in the coming days because they violated the deal. I hope I am wrong, but from what I know of Hamas, they will not give anything for free. Even Israel's threat not to allow the displaced to move north will not convince Hamas to give up. Carrying out the threat could lead to a halt in the release of the hostages. This is a very delicate matter, and it is better for Israel to talk less and let the mediators do more. (Gershon Baskin, January 25, 2025)

• Four female soldiers to be freed Saturday in second hostage release of Gaza ceasefire

  Hamas to release Liri Albag, Karina Ariev, Daniella Gilboa and Naama Levy; all four were abducted when terrorists stormed IDF’s Nahal Oz surveillance base on Oct. 7 

  
  
  4 soldiers held hostage by Hamas, who are due to be released on January 25, 2025: Top (L-R) Karina Ariev, Daniella Gilboa; bottom (L-R) Naama Levy, Liri Albag. (Courtesy)

  Israel on Friday evening confirmed the names of four female Israeli hostages who are set to be released by Hamas on Saturday, after 477 days in captivity.

  The four hostages, whose names were submitted by Hamas late on Friday afternoon, are Liri Albag, 19, Daniella Gilboa, 20, Karina Ariev, 20, and Naama Levy, 20.

  All four women are soldiers and were abducted from the IDF surveillance unit at the Nahal Oz army base during the Hamas-led massacre on October 7, 2023.

  One of the abducted surveillance soldiers was later rescued alive, and the body of a second one was recovered after she was murdered in captivity.

  Of the five remaining surveillance soldiers that were taken hostage, Agam Berger, 21, is the only one not included on the list that Hamas released Friday.

  The list of the four soldiers is in partial violation of the ceasefire agreement, which states that female civilians are to be released first, then female soldiers, followed by the elderly and then those who are deemed extremely ill. Israel, however, agreed to receive the four hostages, deciding the breach was not grave enough to collapse the deal. 

• Translation of Official Hamas Statement 23 January 2025:
  In the name of Allah, the Most Gracious, the Most Merciful

  Issued by the Office of Martyrs, Prisoners and Wounded in the Islamic Resistance Movement "Hamas"

  
  

  To the families of Israeli prisoners in the Gaza Strip:

  
  

  With preparations for the release of a second batch of Israeli prisoners from the Gaza Strip, we have followed with great disapproval the statements of many occupation leaders from the extremist Israeli government that threaten to resume war and genocide in the Gaza Strip.

  
  

  Hamas and the resistance have shown a strong commitment to preserving the lives of Israeli prisoners in their possession, and securing their basic needs despite the genocide and starvation that our people have faced, and the targeting and bombing of some detention centers several times over more than 15 months, as well as despite the killing and torture that our people's detainees have faced in the occupation's prisons that are shocking to humanity.

  
  

  When we reached a ceasefire agreement and released the first batch of female prisoners, we were extremely keen to ensure their handover in a civilized and humane manner, unlike the case in which our detainees were released.

  
  

  We address you today with this message at a time when everyone is facing extremely difficult and painful moments. We sense a great danger in the face of the successive statements of the Israeli political level, which prompts us to warn against these positions that portend a grave danger to everyone, including your loved ones who are still in the Gaza Strip.

  
  

  The recent statements issued by officials in the Israeli government, which indicate the intention to resume the war and genocide on Gaza, raise great concerns about the safety of your children and the safety of hundreds of thousands of innocent civilians who are suffering under the siege and war.

  
  

  In this context, we present to you the most prominent of these statements:

  
  

  1. The statement of the extremist Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich on January 20, 2025, in which he confirmed that he received a personal promise from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to resume the aggression on Gaza after the end of the first stage of the agreement, considering the ceasefire to be merely a temporary stage that will be followed by a new war to eliminate Hamas.

  2. The statement of the Prime Minister of the occupation, Benjamin Netanyahu, dated January 18, 2025, indicating that the ceasefire agreement is temporary, stressing that Israel will return to fighting “in a new way and with great force” if circumstances so require.

  
  

  3. The statement of Minister Dudi Amsalem dated January 22, 2025, who considered that the second stage of the ceasefire agreement will not happen, calling for a return to war as inevitable.

  4. The statements of MK Tali Gottlieb dated January 22, 2025, who called for the seizure of lands in Gaza and the establishment of military bases there, and described the calm as “unreal.”

  
  

  We warn that these statements not only threaten a return to escalation and genocide, but also put the safety of your loved ones in direct danger. We call on you, as the families of the prisoners, and those most affected by what may happen, to take a responsible humanitarian stance and convey your voice to the Israeli government and its leaders who put their own personal and partisan interests above the public interest of ensuring the safety of your children and everyone in Gaza, and to adhere to the agreements.

  
  

  We believe that your voices are capable of bringing about real change, and that your demands can make a difference in pushing towards stopping the recklessness of this right-wing government and its leaders and pushing them to adhere to the agreements that guarantee the preservation of everyone's lives and the return of your loved ones to you. War will only bring more destruction and losses, and will put the lives of the remaining prisoners in real danger and an unknown fate.

  
  

  Office of Martyrs, Prisoners and Wounded

  Islamic Resistance Movement Hamas

  11 Rajab 1446 AH

  23 January 2025 AD

  
  

Gaza and the South

• Palestinian media: One dead, several hurt as IDF opens fire on Gazans approaching Netzarim Corridor area
  

  Palestinian media report one dead and several wounded after IDF troops opened fire on Gazans approaching the Netzarim Corridor area.

  One person was killed and several were wounded by Israeli fire on the Salah a-Din road, and some two dozen more were wounded on the coastal road, according to the reports.

  The IDF has not yet commented on the claims.

  Under the deal, Israel was to withdraw from part of the Netzarim Corridor tomorrow and allow Palestinians to return to northern Gaza via the coastal road. On day 22 of the deal, Palestinians are to be allowed to return via Salah a-Din.

  Israel has said it will not allow Gazans to reach the north of the Strip until Hamas “arranges” the release of civilian Arbel Yehud, who was supposed to be freed today under the terms of the deal.

• Footage Released by Al Jazeera Reveals: How Sinwar Moved in Rafah and Directed the Fighting Before He Was Eliminated

  In the program "The Hidden Exceeds the Visible", previously unseen footage of Mohammed Deif in the command room overseeing the October 7 attack and of Yahya Sinwar operating in Tel al-Sultan was unveiled. The propaganda film included the written order initiating the assault. A senior Hamas official claimed: “We were offered material civilian concessions, but we chose the military option.”

  Over 15 months after the deadly attack carried out by Hamas terrorists on October 7, Al Jazeera aired a propaganda film on Friday as part of its program "The Hidden Exceeds the Visible". The material revealed the extent of the intelligence failure on that infamous day.

  The channel, known as a mouthpiece for Hamas, broadcast footage of Hamas leader in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, moving covertly within the Tel al-Sultan refugee camp in Rafah and managing the fighting from there—the very location where he was ultimately killed by IDF forces on October 16. In the footage, Sinwar is seen moving between destroyed buildings, covered with a blanket.

  In one scene, Sinwar is seen examining maps inside a house in the Rafah area, where IDF forces had previously operated. This is evidenced by Hebrew graffiti on one of the walls that reads "North."

  

  
  

  The program also included footage of Mohammed Deif, the chief of Hamas' military wing, operating in the command room of the military council that orchestrated the October 7 attack. His face was blurred in the broadcast.

  Additionally, the Al Jazeera propaganda film presented intelligence materials held by Hamas before the October 7 assault, underscoring the scale of the blindness within Israel’s intelligence and security systems prior to the attack, which exacted a heavy toll. Among other things, the footage showed measurements of the thickness of the concrete barrier at the border fence and recordings of the electronic systems installed there, as part of Hamas’ surveillance prior to breaching the fence with explosives.

  The October 7 Attack Order

  The program featured a written command issued by Hamas, instructing the attack to begin at precisely 6:30 AM on October 7, 2023:

  • Begin recruiting and concentrating forces in stages, according to the recruitment and concentration timeline.
  • Attack the designated targets, as per the plan.
  • Starting at 6:30 AM, 7.10.2023.

  The written operation order for the October 7 attack underscored the level of planning and precision behind the assault.

  Hamas Official Reveals Details

  Az al-Din al-Haddad, a senior figure in Hamas’ military wing, stated during the program:
  “Since October 1, the military leadership worked around the clock to finalize the plans. In the 24 hours leading up to the attack, the command and control rooms were linked to the operations center overseeing its execution and the recruitment and mobilization of forces for the attack.”

  According to him, “Our assault precisely mirrored the exercises we trained for—the rocket fire, the launching of UAVs and drones, the activities of the naval units, and the deployment of thousands of Hamas’ military wing operatives, who crossed the separation barrier.”

  Al-Haddad claimed, “We warned that this reality was unacceptable. Limited improvements to life in Gaza and material civilian concessions were offered in exchange for separating Gaza’s situation from the West Bank, Jerusalem, and the prisoners. But this only strengthened our choice of the military option.”  link

  
  

• Hamas confirms deaths of senior officials months after Israel said they were killed in airstrike
  

  Months after they were killed, Hamas acknowledges that an Israeli airstrike last summer eliminated Rawhi Mushtaha, the de facto prime minister of the Gaza Strip, along with another top official.

  The Israel Defense Forces said in October 2024 that an airstrike on a tunnel in northern Gaza three months earlier had killed Mushtaha, along with Hamas officials Sameh al-Siraj, who held the security portfolio in Hamas’s political bureau, and Sami Odeh, the head of Hamas’s “general security mechanism.”
  Hamas in a statement confirms the deaths of Mushtaha and Odeh.

• How the ceasefire-hostage deal in Gaza is set to unfold, and why it’s so precarious

  
  A child inspects the damage of his destroyed family home, in Bureij, central Gaza Strip, January 22, 2025, days after the ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas came into effect. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)

  Israel still vows it won’t let Hamas control post-war Gaza, but relies on the terror group to release its remaining hostages, as Gazans return to northern Strip, amid flood of aid
  

  Israeli troops have pulled back to the edges of Gaza, the first hostages have been released and many Palestinians have returned to what remains of their homes in the first few days of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal, stopping fighting for only the second time since the war began with the terror group’s October 7, 2023 cross-border onslaught.

  If the deal’s implementation goes according to plan, there will be no fighting in Gaza for at least six weeks, and dozens of Israeli hostages and hundreds of Palestinian security prisoners will be freed while more aid flows in.

  The question is if the ceasefire will survive beyond the first phase — and an appendix to the deal shows some of the tensions in it.

  Extending the ceasefire depends on even more negotiations meant to begin soon and eventually tackling the tough issue of how Gaza will be governed, with Israel still demanding the elimination of Hamas.

  Hanging over those talks is the possibility Israel could resume its campaign to destroy the terror group — even as dozens of hostages remain in Hamas hands.

  Here is a look at the plan and the major challenges ahead.

  

  A Palestinian walks past destroyed residential buildings damaged by the Israeli air and ground offensive in Bureij, central Gaza Strip, January 22, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)

Israeli troops pull back and Palestinians return home

As part of Phase 1, Israeli troops have pulled back into a buffer zone along Gaza’s borders with Israel. According to the appendix, which AP has verified, that buffer is 700 meters (about 0.4 mi) wide in most areas.

That has allowed displaced Palestinians to begin to return to their homes, many of which were destroyed or heavily damaged by Israel’s campaign

But their return has been a complicated point in the negotiations. Israel long demanded it keep control over Palestinians’ movement to ensure Hamas does not move weapons back to northern Gaza close to Israeli communities.

Throughout the war, the Israeli military had barred Palestinians from returning to the north by severing Gaza along the Netzarim corridor, a belt that runs east to west across the strip where troops cleared out the Palestinian population and set up bases.

According to the appendix, Israel will start on Saturday allowing displaced Palestinians to return to the north without searches, but only on foot via the main north-south coastal road. In the coming weeks, it is supposed to open another route to foot traffic, without inspection.

A private company — the details of which are yet to be formally announced — will search Palestinians returning in vehicles to prevent military hardware from reaching the north, according to the appendix. The document says this will also start from Saturday, but it is still unclear how it will work.

Azhar Abu Sheiban, center, and her family members return to their home in Rafah, days after the ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas, southern Gaza Strip, January 21, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)

Swapping hostages for Palestinian security prisoners

During the first phase, Hamas is set to free 33 hostages in exchange for Israel’s releasing up to 1,904 Palestinian security prisoners and detainees.

The first exchange took place Sunday with the release of three Israeli hostages and 90 Palestinian prisoners. By the end of the 42 days, all living women, children and older people held by the terror group should be freed.

Currently, some 91 hostages, alive and dead, remain captive inside Gaza, a mix of civilians, soldiers and foreigners. The military believes at least a third of them are dead.

The next exchange is set for Saturday. After that, if the deal does not collapse, there will be weekly releases.

The 33 include women, children, sick people and those over 50 — almost all civilians, but the deal also commits Hamas to freeing all living female soldiers in Phase 1. Hamas will release living hostages first; Israel believes most but not all of the 33 are alive.

Relatives and friends of people killed and abducted by Hamas and taken into Gaza, react to the news of the hostages’ release, as they gather in Tel Aviv, Israel on January 19, 2025. (AP Photo/Oded Balilty)

In exchange, Israel will free 30 Palestinian women, children or older people for each living civilian hostage freed. The deal says those released will include more than 110 Palestinians serving life sentences. For each female soldier freed, Israel will release 50 Palestinian prisoners, including 30 serving life sentences.

Many of the security prisoners who will be released were convicted of deadly attacks. Several will be sent abroad or to Gaza, according to the deal, but it is unclear who this will apply to and which country will accept them.

According to the appendix, Israel will also release 1,000 people detained from Gaza since the war began, as long as they are not accused of involvement in the October 7, 2023, attack that started the war, when some 3,000 Hamas-led terrorists invaded southern Israel from Gaza, killing some 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and taking 251 hostages, amid acts of brutality and sexual assault.

Dozens of male hostages, including soldiers, will remain captive in Gaza, pending the second phase.

A crowd gathers around a bus carrying released Palestinian prisoners as it arrives in the West Bank city of Beitunia, January 20, 2025. (AP Photo/Leo Correa)

The Philadelphi corridor

At the end of the first phase, Israel has also pledged to begin reducing its forces in the Philadelphi corridor, a strategic strip of territory along Gaza’s border with Egypt — and, according to the appendix, they will completely withdraw by Day 50. Israel’s demand to maintain a long-term presence in the corridor while Hamas demanded a full withdrawal was one of the knottiest issues in the ceasefire negotiations.

At the same time, the document states that the Rafah Crossing into Egypt will be reopened to allow wounded and sick Palestinians — including a few dozen wounded fighters, whose exit would have to be approved by Israel and Egypt — to be evacuated for treatment, but only when all the female hostages have been released, including female soldiers.

An Israeli official told the AP that Israeli troops will not be drawn down in Gaza during the initial 42 days, only redistributed. The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss closed-door talks, also said that if it does reach a deal with Hamas on Phase 2 that meets Israel’s war aims, which include the full dismantling of the terror group, Israel will stay in the corridor.

Israeli soldiers take up positions next to the Philadelphi Corridor along the border with Egypt, in the Gaza Strip, September 13, 2024. (AP Photo/Leo Correa)

Humanitarian aid

In the first phase, aid to Gaza is ramping up to hundreds of trucks a day of food, medicine, building supplies and fuel to alleviate the humanitarian crisis. This already has begun.

The need is great. Malnutrition and diseases are rampant among Palestinians, while hospitals have been damaged and are short of supplies.

Implementation, however, could bring problems.

Even before the war, Israel restricted the entry of some equipment, arguing it could be used for military purposes by Hamas. Further complicating matters, Israel’s government is still committed to its plan to ban UNRWA — the UN agency that is the main distributor of aid in Gaza — from operating and to cut all ties between the agency and the Israeli government.

The ban came following revelations that many of the agency’s employees were Hamas fighters, and that some participated in the October 7 attack.

Palestinians chase humanitarian aid trucks that arrived through the Kerem Shalom crossing into the Gaza Strip, in Rafah, January 21, 2025. (AP Photo/Jehad Alshrafi)

Beyond Phase 1

Phase 2’s broad outlines are laid out in the deal: All remaining hostages are to be released in return for a complete Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and a “sustainable calm.”

But that seemingly basic exchange opens up much bigger issues.

Israel has said it won’t agree to a complete withdrawal until Hamas’s military and political capabilities are eliminated. Hamas says it will not hand over the last hostages until Israel removes all troops from Gaza.

So both sides will have to agree to a plan for governing Gaza. Hamas has said it would be willing to step aside, but it may still seek a hand in any future government, which Israel has vehemently rejected. And it is unlikely to give up its weapons. Israel has also rejected the alternative of having the Palestinian Authority govern Gaza.

If all sides reach the third phase, it is likely to be less contentious: The bodies of remaining hostages would be returned in exchange for a three- to five-year reconstruction plan in Gaza, but who will pay for it also remains unclear.  link

US intel figures show Hamas has recruited up to 15,000 new fighters during Gaza war
Sources acknowledge Palestinian terror group’s success in enlisting new members but say many of the recruits are young and untrained; Israel estimates some 20,000 terrorists killed

The Palestinian terror group Hamas has recruited between 10,000 and 15,000 members since the start of its war with Israel, according to two congressional sources briefed on US intelligence, suggesting the Iran-backed fighters could remain a persistent threat to Israel.
The intelligence indicates a similar number of Hamas fighters have been killed during that period, the sources said. The latest official US estimates have not been previously reported.
Hamas and Israel began a ceasefire on Sunday after 15 months of a conflict that began with the terror group’s devastating attack on October 7, 2023, which sparked the war in the Gaza Strip and inflamed the Middle East.

The sources briefed on the intelligence, which was included in a series of updates from US intelligence agencies in the final weeks of the Biden administration, said that while Hamas has successfully recruited new members, many are young and untrained and are being used for simple security purposes.

The US Office of the Director of National Intelligence declined to comment.

On January 14, then-president Joe Biden’s secretary of state Antony Blinken said the United States believed Hamas had recruited almost as many fighters as it had lost in the Palestinian enclave, cautioning that this was a “recipe for an enduring insurgency and perpetual war.”

He did not provide further details about the assessment, but Israeli figures have put the total terrorist death toll in Gaza at around 20,000.

“Each time Israel completes its military operations and pulls back, Hamas militants regroup and reemerge because there’s nothing else to fill the void,” Blinken said.

Asked for comment, a Hamas official said he was checking with the relevant parties in the group. Hamas armed wing spokesman Abu Obeida said in July that the terrorist organization had been able to recruit thousands of new fighters.
In the days since the ceasefire, Hamas has shown itself to be deeply entrenched in Gaza despite Israel’s vow to destroy the terror group. The territory’s Hamas-run administration has moved quickly to reimpose security measures and to begin restoring basic services to parts of the enclave, much of which has been reduced to wasteland in the fighting.

Since the start of the war, American officials have not said publicly how many fighters Washington believes Hamas has lost, only noting that the group has been significantly degraded and has likely lost thousands.

Warnings of a continued threat

US officials have issued similar warnings since the Hamas-led terror onslaught against Israel in October 2023, in which some 1,200 people were killed and more than 251 taken hostage. More than 46,000 people have been killed in the Israeli assault that followed, according to Hamas health authorities, whose unverified figures do not differentiate between civilians and combatants.

At a congressional hearing in March 2024, then-director of national intelligence Avril Haines said that the war in Gaza would have a “generational impact on terrorism” and that the crisis had already “galvanized violence by a range of actors around the world.”
Gathering exact data on Hamas is notoriously difficult because of a lack of verifiable intelligence from inside Gaza and because the terror group’s recruitment and training efforts are fluid. But official US figures show that prior to October 7, 2023, Hamas had anywhere between 20,000 and 25,000 fighters.

Asked on Wednesday about Blinken’s comments, Israel’s UN Ambassador Danny Danon acknowledged Hamas’s recruitment efforts but played down the threat.

“We know that Hamas recruits youngsters,” Danon said. “But even if they recruit youngsters, they don’t have the weapons or the training facilities. So basically, yes, you can incite those youngsters against Israel, but they cannot become a terrorist, because you cannot equip them with weapons or rockets.”

Members of security forces loyal to Hamas stand guard in front of a destroyed police compound in Gaza City, on January 22, 2025, on the fourth day of a ceasefire in the war between Israel and Hamas. (Omar AL-QATTAA / AFP)

Following the ceasefire, Israeli troops have begun to move back from some of their positions inside Gaza. The second phase of the ceasefire deal could bring about a permanent end to the fighting.

The terms of that phase still need to be negotiated.

In his resignation speech on Tuesday, Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi, Israel’s military chief, said Hamas had been severely damaged and that most of the group’s military commanders had been killed. But he said Hamas had not been eliminated and the Israel Defense Forces would continue to fight to further dismantle the terror organization.

One of the most difficult issues involved in negotiating the next phases is postwar Gaza’s governance. Some Israeli officials say they won’t accept Hamas staying in power. Hamas so far has not given ground.

Newly inaugurated President Donald Trump’s national security adviser Mike Waltz said on Sunday that Hamas will never govern Gaza and if it reneges on the deal, Washington will support Israel “in doing what it has to do.”  link. Danny Damon’s statement is simply asinine. Dies he really believe that if they don’t have weapons immediately, they can’t become terrorists. Because we have not enabled an alternative governing body in Gaza to offer a better future, we are 100% complicit in creating the next generation of terrorists

Northern Israel - Lebanon/Hizbollah/Syria

• PM says Israel won’t complete full withdrawal from Lebanon by Sunday deadline
  

  Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says Israel will not complete its full withdrawal from southern Lebanon by the 60-day deadline set under the ceasefire deal with Hezbollah.

  In the first public confirmation of such a delay, following weeks of speculation, Netanyahu’s office says in a statement that “the IDF’s withdrawal process is conditional on the Lebanese Army deploying in southern Lebanon and fully and effectively enforcing the agreement, while Hezbollah withdraws beyond the Litani.”

  Netanyahu says that since Lebanon “has not yet fully enforced” its obligations under the ceasefire, “the phased withdrawal process will continue, in full coordination with the United States.” The original 60-day deadline was slated for Sunday, January 26.

  The prime minister says that the terms of the deal were worded “with the understanding that the withdrawal process may continue beyond 60 days.”

  The deal’s text says that the withdrawal process “should not exceed 60 days.”

  The IDF is currently deployed to several villages in southern Lebanon, mostly in the eastern sector. The Lebanese Armed Forces have deployed to villages in the western sector in recent weeks as the IDF has withdrawn.

  The Israeli military is preparing for the possibility of renewed hostilities with Hezbollah. The Iran-backed terror group warned yesterday that it would not accept the IDF staying in southern Lebanon beyond the 60 day limit.

• IDF says it carried out strikes in southern Lebanon to ‘remove threats’ over past several days
  

  The IDF says that in recent days it carried out strikes in southern Lebanon to “remove threats,” and troops have also demolished Hezbollah weapon depots and observation posts.

  “The IDF is continuing to operate in accordance with the ceasefire understandings between Israel and Lebanon,” the military says, days before it is supposed to withdraw from south Lebanon under the ceasefire agreement.

  “The IDF remains deployed in southern Lebanon, continues to monitor Hezbollah’s attempts to return to southern Lebanon, and will operate against any threat posed to IDF troops and the State of Israel,” the IDF adds.

  Earlier, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said that the IDF would stay in some areas of southern Lebanon beyond day 60 of the ceasefire agreement, which is on Sunday.

  Netanyahu said that since Lebanon “has not yet fully enforced” its obligations under the ceasefire, “the phased withdrawal process will continue, in full coordination with the United States.”

• IDF seizes truce-violating weapons, including rocket launchers, in south Lebanon
  Foreign Minister Sa’ar tells UN envoy to Lebanon no compromise on security; strategic affairs minister said to discuss with US security chief extending ceasefire grace period  
  

  Israel Defense Forces troops operating on the Lebanese side of Mount Dov in recent days captured numerous weapons, the military said Wednesday, as it swept the area for Hezbollah caches, ahead of a planned withdrawal under the terms of a November ceasefire that ended a war with the Iran-backed terror group.

  Members of the 810th “Mountains” Regional Brigade located and seized anti-tank missiles and launchers, rocket launchers, machine guns, and other weapons, it said.

  The IDF is still deployed to some areas of southern Lebanon, in accordance with the ceasefire agreement.  full article

West Bank and Jerusalem and Terror attacks within Israel

• Israeli drone strike kills two in major ongoing West Bank operation

  An Israeli drone strike on a vehicle near the West Bank town of Qabatiya killed two people, the Palestinian health ministry confirms on what is the fourth day of a large-scale Israeli operation in the nearby city of Jenin launched after the truce in Gaza.

  The Israeli military says an airstrike had hit a vehicle with what it said was a “terrorist cell” inside but gave no further details.

  The military has been carrying out a major operation in Jenin aiming to crack down on Palestinian terror groups it says are backed by Iran, launched just two days after a ceasefire took effect in the war with Hamas in the Gaza Strip.  Full article

  
  

• Parades in West Bank, chants in Gaza, Hamas flags in East Jerusalem: Palestinians celebrate released prisoners
  

  

  Palestinian security prisoners freed as part of a hostage-ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas are greeted by a crowd after their release, Ramallah, January 25, 2025.(AP Photo/Mahmoud Illean)

  Palestinians in East Jerusalem, the West Bank and the Gaza Strip celebrate the release and arrival of security prisoners who were freed earlier today as part of the first phase of a hostage-ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.

  A video posted to social media shows a celebration in the West Bank city of Ramallah, with Palestinian Islamic Jihad member Mohammed al-Arida seen being carried on the shoulders of men in the crowd.

  Al-Arida is one of 200 Palestinian security prisoners, including dozens serving life sentences for murder and terror, who were released today in exchange for four female IDF soldiers held by terrorists in Gaza since October 7, 2023.

  האסיר הפלסטיני מהג'יהאד האסלאמי מוחמד עארדה ששוחרר היום מ"כוכבי" ההימלטות מכלא גלבוע במהלך החגיגות לרגל שחרורו ברמאללה pic.twitter.com/7zkEgEU7Vm

  — roi kais • روعي كايس • רועי קייס (@kaisos1987) January 25, 2025

  According to Hebrew media reports, the Palestinian Authority has so far been largely successful in preventing both violence and support for terror groups during the West Bank celebrations. Palestinian national flags and flags of the Fatah faction that dominates the PA can be seen in photos and videos from the West Bank.

  However, in the village of Aqab in East Jerusalem, Hamas flags have been seen during a celebratory procession.

  Before the implementation of the ceasefire-hostage deal on Sunday, Defense Minister Israel Katz instructed the IDF to prevent celebrations and parades by Palestinians during the releases of security prisoners.

  Channel 12 news reports that prisoners freed to Gaza are being greeted with chants of, “We are the people of Muhammad Deif,” referencing Hamas’s shadowy military chief, who was killed in an Israeli airstrike in the Strip in July.

• Settlers raid West Bank Palestinian village of Tuba, torching home, vehicle — rights group
  

  Settlers have raided the southern West Bank Palestinian village of Tuba, torching a home and a vehicle belonging to residents, the Israeli activist group Beyond the Herd says.

  The report comes hours after four IDF soldiers kidnapped on October 7, 2023, were freed from Gaza under a ceasefire-hostage release deal with the Hamas terror group.

  In exchange, Israel is set to free 200 Palestinian security prisoners, including dozens serving life sentences for murder and terror, later today.

  
  

Politics and the War (general news)

• Channel 12 News Poll: Most Israelis Believe Netanyahu Should Resign Over the Failures

  • 63% of respondents think Netanyahu should resign; among opposition voters, 92% believe he should step down.
  • 52% of the public believes the government, the IDF, and the Shin Bet share equal responsibility for the October 7 failure.
  • The public trusts Trump more than Netanyahu regarding the release of hostages.

  Following the resignations of Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi and Southern Command Commander Yaron Finkelman, Israelis were asked last night (Friday) whether they believe Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu should also step down due to his role in the October 7 failure. According to the survey results, 63% of respondents believe Netanyahu should resign.

  27% of respondents think Netanyahu should not vacate his position, while 10% are undecided. Among opposition voters, 92% stated that the prime minister should resign, whereas 33% of coalition voters believe he should step down. Additionally, 53% of coalition voters believe the prime minister should remain in his position.

Accountability for the October 7 Failure

Respondents were asked which body bears the primary responsibility for the October 7 failure: the government, the IDF, or the Shin Bet.

• 20% of respondents believe the government is primarily responsible.
• 12% think the IDF is mainly at fault.
• 9% place primary responsibility on the Shin Bet.
• 52% believe all these entities share equal responsibility for the failure.

Trump vs. Netanyahu: Trust in Hostage Negotiations

When asked who they trust more to secure the release of hostages, following U.S. President Donald Trump's efforts to push for a deal between Israel and Hamas:

• 53% of respondents said they trust President Trump more.
• 23% trust Prime Minister Netanyahu more.
• 24% were undecided.  link

The Region and the World

•    
  

Personal Stories

  

Reuven Weisman, 57: Six Day War orphan killed guarding his children

Murdered by Hamas terrorists in Ofakim on October 7

•  

Reuven Weisman (Courtesy)

Reuven Weisman, 57, from Ofakim, was murdered by Hamas terrorists next to his home on October 7.

The morning of the attack, Reuven told his children to hide in the bomb shelter in their backyard. Fearful of the terrorist invasion of the neighborhood, he left the shelter to patrol the area, armed with nothing more than a metal rod, his children said.

A terrorist in the neighbor’s backyard shot Reuven in the head while his children watched on. “I saw it happen, I saw how his glasses flew off his face when he was shot,” his daughter told Ynet.

He was buried in Ofakim. He is survived by his children, Lior, 32, Koral, 31, Shoham, 26, and Gil, 25, his grandchildren Alma and Lavie and his siblings.

His father, Maurice, a Moroccan immigrant, was killed fighting during the Six Day War before Reuven turned 2. Born and raised in Ofakim, after finishing high school Reuven enlisted in the army and served as a driver for heavy equipment. After his release, he pursued a career as a truck driver, according to an Ofakim eulogy.

Reuven’s sister, Ayala, said in a memorial video that he “lived a simple life, a life of work, home, work, home, a modest man. I learned many things from him and his strength,” she said, noting that in later life Reuven decided to become religiously observant, in particular after the death of their mother.

“He went though so many things in life,” she said, also noting a difficult divorce. “He worked nonstop to take care of his children — he worked just so he could provide for his children,” and would cook for the whole family. “He had a huge heart, he was very generous.”

His daughter, Koral, told Ynet that her father “was the support system for all of us, since he was killed — the family has fallen apart. He was the one who always made sure that everyone had somewhere to live, he’d cut corners for himself so we wouldn’t be lacking.

“He was a modest man — except for cigarettes he never bought himself anything,” she added. “At home, there was always tons of food, he knew how to support the family. I will thank him my whole life for teaching me that lesson.”

The day of the attack, she said, he ordered his children to hide while he set out to try and protect them.

“That was Dad, he wasn’t afraid, he was just concerned for his children,” she said.

Read more Those We Have Lost stories here.

Dark Legacy - The Abandonment of October 7th Hostages

Citizens of Israel!

Professor Nitza Ben-Dov

Israel Prize Laureate for the Study of Literature.

It is hard to forget the humanity of King Hussein on his knees before the parents of the seven girls who were shot by a Jordanian soldier on March 13, 1997, on Peace Island in Naharayim. Hussein immediately cut short a visit to Spain and went to Beit Shemesh to ask for forgiveness. In a physical gesture that will forever be etched on the collective memory, he said: “Your loss is my loss, I feel as if I have lost a child of mine.”

What a great distance there is between the Jordanian king and the Prime Minister of Israel, who, in the face of the terrible massacre in the Gaza Envelope, did not see fit to visit families whose worlds were destroyed. Like Pontius Pilate in his day, as soon as he learned of the worst disaster since the Holocaust, he hastened to wash his hands of the blood of babies, adults, and old people, entire families, who, one fine morning, were suddenly cut off from the land of the living. Not to mention the hundreds of hostages, with whose families he met only after three weeks of public pressure. And when he met them, he resorted to “divide and conquer.”

It is difficult to understand how a person devoid of emotional intelligence and deprived of human warmth continues to serve as the head of a country in which men and women have gathered from all over in search of comfort, reassurance, and mercy. It is difficult to understand how the person who stands at the head of a country that is bruised and crushed, in pain and grief, does not show a shred of empathy towards its sons and daughters, who, unlike Yehuda Amichai's God that “has mercy on the children of the kindergarten”, did not have mercy on the morning of Simchat Torah on kindergarten children, or on school children, or on true lovers. In a baritone voice, our Prime Minister addresses us, his voice booming: “Citizens of Israel!” Never, not even now in the face of terrible disaster, has he appealed to us with friendship, with the required softness, neither saying “My brothers and sisters”, or “Dear citizens of Israel”. The disaffected address "Citizens of Israel!" sounds like a scolding, like a reprimand, which will obviously be followed by empty words, that will never be accompanied by an admission of error nor by a bowing of the head, let alone a noble kneeling in the style of King Hussein.

Who is this Prime Minister who has brought us to the brink of the abyss? Who is his wife, a Child Psychologist with academic degrees, B.A., M.A, as she announces at the top of her lungs, and yet did not see fit to comfort even one child who was uprooted from his home. Always accusing, always demanding, always being owed thanks - although for what, it is not clear.

In the book Kaf ha-Hayyim, a halachic treatise by Rabbi Ya'akov Hayyim Sofer, it is written: “When one asks for forgiveness from one’s friend, one should specify to them what one is asking forgiveness for”. Netanyahu can be excused from specifying what he will seek forgiveness for. The list is too long and loaded to bear: the Carmel disaster, the Meron disaster, the coalition agreement disaster, the regime coup disaster, the Hawara disaster. He managed to shake off responsibility for all of these.  But from the disaster of the Gaza Envelope, and the war that has been dragging on without a purpose, we will not let him avoid responsibility. He must let us alone, whether or not he wants to.

In the middle of the war, he moved house and when he returned, he renovated a swimming pool. Is it possible that all the transitions and renovations stem from identification and empathy with the tens of thousands of displaced persons whose homes were abandoned and burned? Maybe, like all displaced people, he too is an exile in his own land?

Acronyms and Glossary

COGAT - Coordination of Government Activities in the Territories

ICC - International Criminal Court in the Hague

IJC - International Court of Justice in the Hague

MDA - Magen David Adom - Israel Ambulance Corp

PA - Palestinian Authority - President Mahmud Abbas, aka Abu Mazen

PMO- Prime Minister's Office

UAV - Unmanned Aerial vehicle, Drone. Could be used for surveillance and reconnaissance, or be weaponized with missiles or contain explosives for 'suicide' explosion mission

Join my Whatsapp update group https://chat.whatsapp.com/IQ3OtwE6ydxBeBAxWNziB0 
Twitter - @LonnyB58 

Bluesky - @lonny-b.bsky.social