πŸŽ—️Lonny's War Update- October 419, 2023 - November 28, 2024 πŸŽ—️

  

πŸŽ—️Day 419 that 101 of our hostages in Hamas captivity
**There is nothing more important than getting them home! NOTHING!**

“I’ve never met them,
But I miss them. 
I’ve never met them,
but I think of them every second. 
I’ve never met them,
but they are my family. 
BRING THEM HOME NOW!!!”


We’re waiting for you, all of you.
A deal is the only way to bring
all the hostages home- the murdered for burial and the living for rehabilitation.

#BringThemHomeNow #TurnTheHorrorIntoHope

There is no victory until all of the hostages are home!
‎ΧΧ™ΧŸ Χ Χ¦Χ—Χ•ΧŸ Χ’Χ“ Χ©Χ›Χœ Χ”Χ—Χ˜Χ•Χ€Χ™Χ Χ‘Χ‘Χ™Χͺ

The government yesterday made a deal for a ceasefire in Lebanon. It broke Hizbollah's commitment to continue shelling and attacking Israel until the war in Gaza ends. 

The war in Gaza could have ended quite some time ago and all of the security heads were pushing for that because it would also bring the hostages home. The IDF General Staff and the Head of the Shin Bet made it very clear to Netanyahu that ending the war was what should be done and they can handle anything that happens after that, including but not limited to going back in to fight.

The only problem is that Netanyahu doesn't want the war in Gaza to end. It is very different than the war in the north, specifically in Lebanon. There, he can claim victory because the IDF has done a great job finding and destroying numerous tunnels, missiles and rocket launches and depots of ammunition, eliminated the head of Hizbollah and much of the senior leadership as well as much of their terrorist military hierarchy. Israel pushed for a strong ceasefire agreement that has in writing Israel's ability to attack on Lebanese soil if there are violations to the agreement. Certain types of violations will have to be reported to a monitoring committee led by the US and other types will allow for immediate attacks by the IDF. Is the north safe for the residents to come back? That is the biggest question and has yet to be seen. If it is safe, is it for short, long term or forever?

Lebanon now has an opportunity to restructure itself and put Hizbollah in it place and take over the governing and rule of all of Lebanon, but that may be much easier said than done.

Now to the south. Why isn't the war in Gaza ending and what is the future there? The war is not ending because this failed and corrupt government has basically placed the reins entirely into the hands of the worst Prime Minister Israel has ever had, the one who refuses to take any responsibility for anything that goes wrong, yet is the fastest to take the credit for whatever goes right no matter who's success it really is. The latest example is the ceasefire agreement with Lebanon. Most of the credit for that agreement goes to the US administration under Joe Biden and his emissary Amos Hochstein, but for anyone who heard Netanyahu's pre-recorded press release about the agreement, it was all him and no one else had any part in it. Typical. So, the south?
Netanyahu has 3 reasons not to end the war in the south. I wrote about this yesterday but it is too important not to repeat.
Hamas will not agree to any hostage deal that doesn't include the end of the war and withdrawal of all IDF troops and Netanyahu will not agree to a deal that includes the end of the war due to his personal and political self interests. His major 3 reasons of self interests that cause him to refuse to end the war: Ending the war will bring about - 1: broad calls for an Official State Commission of Inquiry. Netanyahu has fought this tooth and nail and his corrupt government is now trying to push a bill that will make it legally impossible to initiate an Official State Commission of Inquiry. Only someone who has so much to hide would do such a thing. 2: broad calls for early elections. Netanyahu knows that if early elections are held, he will lose his prime minister's seat and that is the last thing he wants. He and his dysfunctional family feel as though this seat is his god given right. 3: It would mean no more delays to his 3 criminal trials which could land him in prison unless his corrupt government is successful in their attempt to overthrow the judicial system which would then cancel all of his charges.

Due to the ceasefire agreement yesterday, new momentum is coming from Egypt and the United States to push through an agreement for Gaza that will get the hostages home and end the war. Netanyahu still has 2 extremist messianic ministers who will not agree to any deal that includes ending the war. Despite this, let's hope that the pressure from our negotiating allies who can try to play to Netanyahu's ego that he can call a Gaza ceasefire/agreement a success will be strong enough for him to see it as more important than the 3 reasons I have listed above. I'm skeptical but must remain hopeful. 

As far was what kind of deal can and should be reached, read my brother's proposal in the hostage section. The deal must be a short one without any phases, a one shot deal that brings the hostages home and ends the war. Read the details below.




Red Alerts - Missile, Rocket, Drone (UAV - unmanned aerial vehicles), and Terror Attacks and Death Announcements

*for the first time in over a year, no red alerts
*
*


Hostage Updates 

Today is the 22nd birthday of Matan Angrest and his second in Hamas captivity


Matan Will Mark His Second Birthday in Captivity: "It Has Become Our Saddest Day"


The mother of the kidnapped soldier shared her frustration over the lack of a forthcoming deal. Matan's sister, who was born on the same day, said, "It’s the hardest thing that could happen to me." Tomorrow, Matan Angrest will mark his 22nd birthday while still in captivity. His mother, Anat, spoke this morning (Wednesday) on the radio program *Seder Yom* on Kan Reshet Bet, alongside his sister, who was born on the same day, three years apart. They shared the deep sadness they are experiencing. Anat opened the interview by saying, "This is going to be complicated. It’s a date on which I gave birth to two children, the happiest day for our family until a year ago. It has become our saddest day. I don’t even know if Matan knows it’s his birthday. I’m forced to organize a birthday for a child who is in the dark, just for awareness. There is no joy in it."



Over the years, there was family humor between Matan and his sister about being born on the same date. His sister added, "I never imagined I would spend another birthday without him. It’s the hardest thing that could have happened to me." Adi, who serves as a Border Police officer, received her combat wings just two days ago. "At first, I wanted to give my parents peace of mind, but very quickly, I realized this is my dream. Matan himself told me before he was kidnapped, 'If it's your dream—go for it.'"


Anat also shared more about Matan: "He was one of Bibi's biggest supporters. He trusted him so much, believing he cared for the citizens. He got the slap in the face on October 7."


The family was asked about Matan's younger brother, Ofir, who appeared in the Knesset but was prevented from playing a recording of Matan's voice. "I saw the shock in his eyes. Only then did it hit us—they're opposing us. Ofir just wanted to urge the Knesset members to do more."


Finally, Anat addressed the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon and its impact on a potential hostage deal. "I know Matan will return at the end of the war because he is a soldier. That’s the formula. As long as the Prime Minister has declared he’s not willing to call for a ceasefire for me, I translate that to mean, 'Your Matan stays there,'" she said angrily.



  • Since once again the issue of Gaza ceasefire and a hostage deal is coming back to the “table”, I want to remind everyone what Hamas agreed to on September 10th.  This agreement was conveyed to me by a member of the Hamas negotiating team with the support, according to him, of the entire Hamas leadership. It is a comprehensive deal and should lead the mediators, including the United States, to avoid once again creating convoluted, complex proposals that will take months to implement and include too many exit points from the agreement. The agreement should be simple and fast, as was agreed in September.  It should be something like this:

    In three weeks’ time:
    1.⁠ ⁠The war in Gaza will end. Both sides obligate themselves to refrain from all aggressive actions against the other. 
    2.⁠ ⁠Israel will withdraw from all of Gaza.
    3.⁠ ⁠In 3-5 days after the ceasefire begins, Hamas will provide the mediators with a full list of all of the Israeli and foreign hostages and their condition. 
    4.⁠ ⁠Hamas will release all of the 101 hostages within the 3-week period.
    5.⁠ ⁠Israel will release an agreed number and list of Palestinian prisoners in coordination with the release of the hostages. 
    6.⁠ ⁠Hamas agrees that it will no longer govern Gaza and that a professional technocrat government will take over all governance in Gaza and Hamas will not be part of that government.
    7.⁠ ⁠The new Palestinian government in Gaza will form a security force under its authority.

    This is what can and should be in any agreement between Israel and Hamas to end the war in Gaza and to return the hostages.  (Gershon Baskin, November 27, 2024)

  • Urging deal, US hostage families lament that their ‘Thanksgiving tables will have an empty chair again’

    The families of the seven remaining American-Israeli hostages in Gaza lament that their “Thanksgiving tables will have an empty chair again” in a statement calling on their governments to act to secure their loved one’s release, as they ready to mark a second Thanksgiving without them.

    “While we are encouraged by this ceasefire deal in Lebanon, we ask ourselves: When will our children, parents, sisters and brothers come home? We cannot allow their chairs at our tables to sit forever empty,” the families say in a joint statement.

    “We urge President-elect Trump and his transition team to work together with President Biden and his administration officials to bring seven Americans – Omer Neutra, Edan Alexander, Judi Weinstein, Gad Haggai, Keith Siegel, Sagui Dekel-Chen and Itay Chen – and the additional 94 hostages home now,” they add.  LINK It's important to note that no one has done more to reach a deal for the hostages than Joe Biden. And he has met with the families of hostages, not just American hostages, more than our whole government has done. Families have been begging to meet with Netanyahu for months. They don't receive a refusal; they don't receive anything at all.

  • Some US officials say Hamas could give up on core demands and accept a ceasefire deal that Israel could back, The New York Times reports.

    According to the outlet, even before a ceasefire was reached between Hezbollah and Israel this week, both Palestinian and US officials said they thought Hamas was ready to give up on the strategy professed by slain leader Yahya Sinwar, and to move forward toward a deal.

    Shortly before his death, Sinwar had told Hamas’s leadership that a long war against Israel is beneficial: “The longer it lasts, the closer we get to liberation,” senior Hamas official Osama Hamdan recounts Sinwar saying.

    Citing two people familiar with the terror group’s thinking, the report says leaders of the terror group are discussing allowing Israel to maintain a temporary presence on the Philadelpi Corridor, the border area between Egypt and Gaza that Israel’s leadership has pledged not to withdraw from.

    According to the report, “reality started to sink in” after Sinwar’s death in October, as it became clear that Iran was not looking to open a direct conflict with Israel, and Hezbollah was being hit hard by the IDF. Hamas had hoped its allies in the Iranian axis would join in the fight and force Israel to accept a ceasefire on Hamas’s terms.

    Hamas leaders are split over the role it should have after the war and the compromises it should make to achieve a ceasefire, according to the Times.

    Decision-making is hampered by the fact that Hamas has not chosen a leader to replace Sinwar.

    “The solution to Hamas’s military losses is simpler — there’s a pyramid of command and each commander or soldier can be replaced,” Hamas member Salah al-Din al-Awawdeh, tells the newspaper. “But on the political level, things are far more complicated. There will ultimately need to be elections. There are different factions and balances of power. All this makes it hard to predict.”

    Furthermore, US officials believe that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is waiting for Donald Trump to take office before making any decisions on his positions around a deal with Hamas, says the report.  link Unfortunately, the people making these statements really have no understanding of Hamas. Despite their loses and the killing of Sinwar, they are an agile terror organization and their bottom line has not changed. End of the war for a hostage deal and that means withdrawal of all Israeli troops from all of Gaza. We will not see any flexibility on that, unfortunately.

  • An Egyptian security delegation is reportedly expected to arrive in Tel Aviv in the coming hours in an effort to reach a Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal.

    According to the Hezbollah-linked al-Akhbar news outlet, the Cairo officials are expected to present a “comprehensive vision” for an agreement, amid optimism that a deal can be reached in the wake of the Hezbollah ceasefire.

    The report says the plan calls for a truce that will initially last a month or two and will see the gradual release of hostages, with first priority given to older captives or those who are sick.

    Concurrently, “broader and longer discussions will take place, without military pressure on the ground,” the report says.

    Egyptian officials will request that Hamas be given a period of several days after the truce begins in order to provide a list of the living hostages.

    The plan would also see the Rafah Border Crossing between Egypt and Gaza quickly returned to operation, under the supervision of the Palestinian Authority, with Egyptian oversight.

    Israel would be given the right to veto those crossing to Egypt, with Cairo guaranteeing it will secure a Palestinian commitment that Hamas will not be allowed to control either the crossing or the Strip “during the coming period.”

    The deal would also see an increase in humanitarian aid for Gaza, and medications would enter the Strip for the hostages that need.

    The report also says that Israel will initially be permitted to maintain its military positions within Gaza, but without carrying out operations.

    While not mentioned in the report, the potential deal is also assumed to include the release of Palestinian prisoners.

Gaza and the South

  •  The IDF says it foiled an attempt to smuggle weapons into Israel from Egypt earlier today, using a drone.

    The drone had been identified crossing the border from Egypt into Israel, before it was downed by troops of the Border Defense Corps’ Caracal Battalion.

    Troops at the scene found that the drone was ferrying four rifles, five magazines and hundreds of bullets, the military adds.


  • Overnight, troops of the Givati Brigade’s reconnaissance unit raided a former school in northern Gaza’s Jabalia, where the IDF says it had intelligence of Hamas operatives gathered there.

    The operation comes as the IDF says the 162nd Division expanded its offensive in the far north of the Strip.

    Many gunmen were killed in close-quarters combat and in airstrikes during the operation at the al-Harthani School, according to the military.

    The former school was serving as a shelter for displaced Palestinians.

    Separately, the IDF says that Hamas operatives launched anti-tank projectiles at troops from within the Indonesian Hospital in Beit Lahiya overnight.

    Troops also enabled thousands of civilians to evacuate from the areas of fighting over the past day, the military says, adding that among them several terror operatives were detained and taken to Israel for interrogation.

  • The IDF releases footage of an airstrike against a Hamas operative preparing to launch rockets from northern Gaza’s Jabalia.

    The military says the rockets were being set up in a building next to a weapons depot, where several other operatives were holed up.

    Strikes were carried out against the primed rockets and weapons depot, killing the Hamas operatives, the military says.

  • Hamas-run Gaza authorities say Israeli military strikes killed at least 21 Palestinians across the Strip, as forces stepped up their strikes central areas and tanks pushed deeper into the north and south of the enclave.

    The figures could not be independently verified. There was no comment from the Israel Defense Forces on the strikes.

    The apparent escalation comes a day after Israel and Hezbollah began a ceasefire in Lebanon, a year after the Iran-backed group began firing missiles at northern Israel on October 8, 2023, in what it said was a show of support for Hamas after the Palestinian terror organization carried out its onslaught a day earlier.

    The deal between Hezbollah and Israel has raised hopes for a potential hostage and ceasefire deal for Gaza.

    An Egyptian delegation is reportedly meeting Israeli officials today to present a “comprehensive vision” for Gaza.

Northern Israel - Lebanon/Hizbollah/Syria

  • Now for a little humor

    Lebanese terror group Hezbollah says it has achieved “victory” over Israel and that its fighters are at the ready after a truce between the two sides took effect.

    “Victory from God almighty was the ally of the righteous cause,” a statement from the Iran-backed group said, adding that its fighters “will remain in total readiness to deal with the Israeli enemy’s ambitions and its attacks.”


  • IDF Spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari in a press conference says any Hezbollah violation of the ceasefire agreement “will be answered with fire.”

    “The IDF’s mission is to enforce the agreement. The IDF is determined, and any violation will be answered with fire,” he says.

    Hagari says IDF troops are still positioned in southern Lebanon “in the villages and areas from which there will be a gradual withdrawal, in accordance with the agreement.”

    “Air Force planes continue to fly over Lebanon’s skies, collecting intelligence and are prepared to operate wherever necessary,” he continues.

    Hagari says that in the coming weeks, the IDF will “shape” its defenses on the northern border, and “implement lessons from the past.”

    Today, he says IDF troops worked to enforce the agreement. The soldiers “identified suspects who approached no-go zones, detained them, and fired warning shots. We also killed terrorists today,” Hagari says.

    Hagari also shows a map of areas in southern Lebanon that are currently off-limits for Lebanese civilians amid the gradual handover to the Lebanese Armed Forces.

    “We are stationed and operating in this area. Armed operatives in the area marked on the map is a violation [of the ceasefire], and any armed operative will be eliminated or detained,” he says.

    Addressing Lebanese civilians, Hagari says: “As you saw throughout the war, we are doing what we say. For your safety, we call on you not to approach the area where our forces are. The ceasefire agreement is built in a gradual way, and we will update when you can return.”

    He says that during the entire conflict, over 12,500 Hezbollah sites in Lebanon were struck, including 360 in Beirut’s southern suburbs.

    “Hezbollah is a strategic Iranian asset, which the Iranian leadership invested many resources in, money, weapons and personnel over the years. Iran’s leadership has lost a strategic asset adjacent to our border,” Hagari adds.


  • IDF releases video of strikes on major underground Hezbollah precision missile factory

    The IDF releases footage of last night’s airstrikes, before the ceasefire took effect, against Hezbollah’s largest underground precision-guided missile manufacturing site in Lebanon.

    The 1.4-kilometer-long site, located near the town of Janta in eastern Lebanon’s Beqaa Valley, very close to the Syrian border, was struck by fighter jets for over four hours, according to the military.

    The missile manufacturing plant was built several years ago with Iranian support, the IDF says.

    The site was used by Hezbollah to build precision surface-to-surface missiles and other weapons, as well as to store the guided missiles. The IDF says that Iranian operatives also worked at the facility, alongside Hezbollah members.

    The military says that its proximity to Syria allowed Hezbollah to smuggle into Lebanon thousands of components to build the precision missiles, as well as for operatives to travel between Syria and Lebanon.

    “This is the most strategic production infrastructure of the Hezbollah terror organization in Lebanon that was struck during the war. The strike was made possible by a precise intelligence file that was collected and built over the years,” the IDF says.

    The strike on the manufacturing facility “is a blow to the Hezbollah terror organization’s ability to produce weapons,” the military adds.

    Before the massive bombardment of the site, the IDF says it struck the surrounding area, including a central Hezbollah Radwan Force base. The IDF estimates that dozens of operatives were killed in the strike. video of airstrike

  • **"Thousands Killed, Capabilities Intact: Hezbollah Needs Time to Rebuild"**  

    The Shiite terrorist organization Hezbollah has suffered a severe blow, but sources in Lebanon are already discussing the lengthy reconstruction process that will begin immediately. The loyalty of Shiite supporters whose homes were destroyed, the funding promised by Iran, the preservation of remaining weaponry—and time to heal—are key to Hezbollah’s path to recovery, which Israel aims to prevent.  

    Hezbollah faces a prolonged recovery period, with officials estimating that thousands of its operatives have been killed during the months of fighting, particularly since the escalation of hostilities. In Lebanon, it is said that Hezbollah "needs time to tend to its wounds." While Israeli officials claim to have set the group back by decades, Hezbollah views continued resistance as a victory. Four senior officials told Reuters that with the bodies of militants still lying on the ground, Hezbollah’s immediate priorities include burying the dead and providing aid to its supporters as the first steps in a costly and lengthy recovery process.  

    Hezbollah estimates that around 4,000 of its members have been killed—more than ten times the casualties it suffered during the 2006 Lebanon War. Most of these deaths occurred after Israel’s ground incursion into southern Lebanon in late September, according to three sources familiar with the situation who shared internal assessments previously undisclosed. Official Lebanese authorities have reported approximately 3,800 deaths so far, without distinguishing between Hezbollah fighters and civilians.  

    The organization has suffered a significant blow at all levels, and its leadership remains in shock following the assassination of Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah. Meanwhile, many of its supporters have been left homeless due to the bombings in Beirut’s southern suburbs and villages in southern Lebanon.  

    Sources familiar with Hezbollah’s strategy noted that, with the ceasefire now in effect, the organization’s agenda includes rebuilding its organizational structure, investigating security breaches that allowed Israel to inflict severe damage, and reassessing its underestimation of Israeli technological capabilities. Reuters spoke with 12 sources who outlined the challenges Hezbollah faces, most of whom requested anonymity. Lebanese MP Hassan Fadlallah, a Hezbollah representative, told Reuters, "Our first priority is the people—taking care of them, clearing the rubble, saying farewell to the martyrs. The next phase will be rebuilding."  

    Israeli attacks targeted Hezbollah’s Shiite strongholds, where many remain critically injured. “My brother was killed, my brother-in-law was injured in the attack, and my neighbors are either martyrs, wounded, or missing,” said Hawara, a resident of southern Lebanon whose family members are Hezbollah fighters. "We want to gather our dead, bury them, and rebuild our homes."  

    A Lebanese source familiar with Hezbollah’s mindset told Reuters, "Hezbollah is like a wounded person. Does a wounded person get up and fight? No, they need to tend to their wounds." He added that Hezbollah is expected to conduct a broad review after the war, focusing on Israel, its remaining arsenal, and Lebanon’s internal politics, where its weapons have long been a contentious issue.  

    Iran has pledged to assist in Hezbollah’s recovery, with the World Bank estimating that damage to housing in Lebanon alone amounts to approximately $2.8 billion, with 99,000 homes partially or completely destroyed. A senior Lebanese official who spoke with Reuters indicated that Tehran has various ways to secure financial aid for Hezbollah, without providing further details. Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri called on wealthy Lebanese Shiites to contribute to the displaced, with local sources predicting significant donations from Shiite religious funds in the region.  

    ### "Resistance Will Continue"  

    Amid fears in northern Israel of Hezbollah’s resurgence along the border, the organization has already announced its intent to maintain its weaponry, dashing the hopes of its rivals in Lebanon who expected the war’s pressures to force it to disarm. Hezbollah officials emphasized that the “resistance” will continue. Despite the destruction in Lebanon, Fadlallah claimed that Hezbollah’s resistance in southern Lebanon and the intensive rocket fire before the ceasefire demonstrated Israel’s failure.  link

  • The IDF says it carried an airstrike against a Hezbollah facility in southern Lebanon, after identifying activity there.

    The facility had been used to hold medium-range rockets, according to the IDF.

    The military says fighter jets struck the site after the Hezbollah activity was identified, removing the threat.

    “The IDF is deployed in southern Lebanon, acting and thwarting any violation of the ceasefire agreement,” the military adds.

    This is the first strike by warplanes since the ceasefire went into effect.



West Bank and Jerusalem and Terror attacks within Israel

  • Abbas declares Rawhi Fattouh will be interim PA head if presidency becomes vacant


    The Palestinian Authority announces that PA President Mahmoud Abbas has declared that if the presidency becomes vacant he will be temporarily replaced by Rawhi Fattouh, the former speaker of the Palestinian Legislative Council who also served as interim PA chief following the death of Yasser Arafat.

    A statement posted to the PA’s official Wafa news site says that in such an event, Fattouh will serve as interim president for no more than 90 days, during which presidential elections will be held. But if it’s not possible to hold elections, the Palestinian Central Council can grant a one-time extension to the interim president’s term.

  •    


Politics and the War (general news)

  • Lapid calls for PM to announce state commission of inquiry as part of ICC appeal

    Opposition Leader Yair Lapid calls on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to announce the formation of a state commission of inquiry alongside Israel’s appeal against the ICC arrest warrants for the premier and former defense minister Yoav Gallant, declaring that doing so would be “for the benefit of the state and also [Netanyahu’s] own benefit.”

    Such a move seems highly unlikely, however, as Netanyahu has refused to commit to the formation of such a committee and repeatedly insisted any investigation into the failures surrounding Hamas’s terror onslaught last year be put off until after the war.

    According to an Israeli television report in September, Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara told Netanyahu and other ministers that impaneling a state commission of inquiry — which enjoys the broadest powers under Israeli law — was the best way to stave off international arrest warrants.


  • A global arms race: Israel's air force seeks post-ceasefire weapons supplies - analysis
    Military officials reveal severe strain on Israel's helicopter fleets and fighter jets, while the global arms race complicates procurement efforts.

    Israel's biggest challenge after the ceasefire is not in Lebanon but in the United States and Germany. 

    Israel needs to restore IDF capabilities through massive procurement of weapon systems, fighter jets, helicopters, tanks, artillery, missiles, and various types of ammunition. 

    The most severe situation in the IDF is in the helicopter array, particularly the Apache squadrons. Regarding ammunition, the IDF is constantly monitoring the quantity of air-to-ground bombs. 

    The air force's fighter jets have accumulated thousands of flight hours per aircraft during the war, far beyond their planned lifetime - causing aging across all of the force's fighter jets. This will require Israel to expedite the purchase of new squadrons, particularly F-15s and F-35s.

    The American administration has recently raised restrictions on aid to Israel, delayed the procurement of heavy air-to-ground bombs and helicopter air-to-ground missiles, and also prevented the supply of used Apache helicopters to temporarily assist the Air Force's defense array. 

  • But the diplomatic crisis between the administration and Israel isn't everything. The world is currently in an arms race. With the war in Ukraine and tensions between China and Taiwan, all of Europe is chasing weapons.


    A global arms race

    A senior official from one of the world's largest weapons suppliers said, "What's happening now is crazy. This isn't the world we knew two or three years ago. The whole world is buying weapons, everything of everything." 

    "We're in a reality where this race means weapons companies can't keep up with orders, and the delivery queue keeps getting longer," he added.

    Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared yesterday that the second factor in deciding on a ceasefire is the need to replenish ammunition and equipment. 

    This is not just to allow renewed ammunition supply but also so that new systems can be purchased now, focusing on fighter jet squadrons, refueling aircraft, and transport helicopters, rather than in four years when the new aid law opens.

    Currently, the most difficult situation in the air force is the condition of the Apache helicopters. Their availability level was lacking at the beginning of the war, and due to extensive flight hours, the situation only worsened as the fighting wore on. 

    Israel urgently needs to renew both squadrons. 

    One squadron's situation is particularly bad as it uses an older model of the helicopter. During the fighting, Israel requested several used helicopters in good condition from the United States until the purchase of two squadrons would be approved, which was denied by the Americans.

    One of the options currently being considered by the Air Force is to take several Black Hawk transport helicopters (called "Yanshuf" in the Air Force), which are used for transport and casualty evacuation, and install weapon systems like air-to-ground missiles, cannons, and additional systems. It would serve as an aerial vehicle for border defense and slightly reduce the need for Apache helicopters.


    Heavy and semi-heavy bombs

    Shipments of heavy and semi-heavy bombs are stuck in Boeing warehouses in the United States due to President Joe Biden's decision. The same applies to the ‘Hellfire’ missile produced by Lockheed Martin - Israel lacked these munitions when fighting began. An American airlift filled the warehouses in Israel, but as the fighting continued, stocks declined again. Israel is counting on President Trump to immediately release the shipments to Israel.


    All Air Force fighter jets performed thousands of flight hours during the war, and their wear is significant. 


    During the war, the United States even supplied several used aircraft for the Air Force. There's an urgent need to advance the supply of aircraft that were ordered late because Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich speculated if Israel even needed fighter jets. 


    A security official estimates that the Air Force will now advance a rapid procurement process that will build Israel's air power, including about one hundred F-35 aircraft, one hundred advanced model F-15 aircraft, and around fifty F-16 aircraft.


    The Air Force will request to advance the arrival of refueling aircraft, with the understanding they must purchase at least six more heavy transport helicopters in addition to the 12 helicopters ordered to replace the Yasur helicopter fleet, which has already exceeded their intended flight hours range.


    "The big problem right now is that the budget is limited, the blanket is short, and you need to be a magician to meet the needs. And the second issue is the production line schedules that are full with a list of buyers," a security official said. link



  • Yedioth: State Comptroller Matanyahu Englman recently completed questioning all members of the Security Cabinet as part of preparing a report on its performance leading up to October 7. Former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, before his dismissal, handed over the entire contents of his computer at the Ministry of Defense to the comptroller's staff. During the questioning, ministers testified that decisions were made based on limited information delivered to them verbally and hastily. They also indicated that voting was heavily influenced by coalition discipline and the Prime Minister’s demands, rather than the intelligence provided by the defense establishment.--This is autocracy, not democracy. According to Israeli law, we live in a democracy and the prime minister does not hold all the power. He is the prime minister, not the king minister. It is the entire cabinet that makes up the government and has the power of decision making, but somehow this totally failed and corrupt government has given up all the remnants of that democracy and empowered Netanyahu with all the power and worst of all, the veto power which he uses for all of his own self interests. Yet. there are the 2 extremist messianic ministers who don't care a bit about democracy at all but use it for their own self interests and in doing so, threaten Netanyahu with losing it all if he does anything that they don't want and the biggest thing they don't want is to end the war in Gaza which would bring home the hostages. Disgraceful of them and disgraceful of all the cabinet.

  • Amidst a coalition push to shutter Israel’s public broadcaster, Likud MK Nissim Vaturi is now promoting a new bill to privatize Army Radio, arguing that “that there is no need for a so-called military radio station, which is financed by the public, operates as a military unit and is staffed by soldiers.”

    Vaturi’s bill, which was placed on the Knesset table earlier this week, would require the Second Authority for Television and Radio to carry out a tender for the sale of the network — along with affiliated network Galgalatz — to a private buyer.

    Communications Minister Shlomo Karhi last year indicated that he intends to shut down the Second Authority as well.

    In 2023, then defense minister Yoav Gallant decided not to shut down or privatize Army Radio despite several years of announcements by successive governments and the military that they intended to do so.

    Army Radio — one of the most listened-to news stations in the country — is staffed by a mix of young soldiers and seasoned journalists. The bill would require IDF troops to halt their service at the station within two years.

    The military’s operating and funding of a radio station with journalists responsible for investigating the IDF itself as well as politicians has long been considered anachronistic, expensive, and an ethical minefield.

    While Hebrew media reported that the new bill was expected to be voted on by the Ministerial Committee on Legislation as early as Sunday, it does not currently appear on the high-level body’s agenda for next week.

    Vaturi’s bill echoes the language of a similar piece of legislation that passed a preliminary reading 49-46 in the Knesset yesterday.

    That bill, sponsored by Likud MK Tally Gotliv, would require the government to issue a tender for the purchase of the television and radio networks controlled by the Israeli Public Broadcasting Corporation within two years.

    The proposed legislation, which has been condemned as a threat to press freedom by journalists and opposition lawmakers, stipulates that if a buyer cannot be found in two years, the broadcaster will be shuttered completely and its intellectual property will revert to the government.

    On Sunday the coalition announced it would be boycotting the left-wing Haaretz daily. link. this is all part of the government's plan to end democracy and take over the judicial system, eliminate any free press that is not favorable to them and change the educational curriculum to their agendas and ideologies in order to brainwash the next generation.


    The Region and the World
    • The Biden administration is advancing a $680 million weapon package to Israel, a US official confirms to The Times of Israel, while insisting that the sale is not tied to the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, which went into effect this morning.

      On Tuesday, Washington had insisted that the ceasefire was not tied to any weapon shipments to Israel.

      The US official speaking on condition of anonymity explains that this latest arms sale, which includes thousands of joint direct attack munition kits (JDAMs), was in the works for several months and is just one of countless shipments green-lit since the start of the war, including in recent weeks before the Lebanon ceasefire was signed.

      “There are constantly packages being advanced through various stages. This has nothing to do with the ceasefire in Lebanon,” says the official, who is speaking on condition of anonymity.

      “This case has been in the pipeline for some time now. Deliveries aren’t expected to start for at least a year, and this should be viewed in the context of long-term support for Israel’s defense and not tied to the ceasefire yesterday or any specific current activity,” says another US official.

      The State Department declines to confirm the advancement of the JDAMs sale, but did say that US support for Israel’s security against Iran-backed threats is “unwavering” and that no country can be expected to tolerate the threats Israel is facing.

      The statement from the State Department says all weapon transfers are carried out in line with US law, which bars their use in the perpetration of war crimes or by countries that block the delivery of humanitarian aid to civilians.

      “We have made clear that Israel must comply with international humanitarian law, has a moral obligation and strategic imperative to protect civilians, investigate allegations of any wrongdoing, and ensure accountability for any abuses or violations of international human rights law or international humanitarian law,” the State Department says.

      Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed yesterday that the US has been delaying weapon shipments to Israel — setbacks that would end soon, he said, not so subtly referencing the January 20 inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump.

      The Biden administration immediately denied Netanyahu’s claims, saying the only shipment that has been withheld is a package of 2,000-pound bombs that Washington is concerned would be used in densely populated areas.  

    • Ratings agency Fitch indicates that the ceasefire between Israel and the Lebanese terror group Hezbollah, if durable, would relieve some pressure for further credit downgrades and ease the burden on the country’s finances.

      “The ceasefire, if sustained, will remove a key potential driver for increased conflict between Israel and Iran, a close ally of Hezbollah,” Fitch says. “A durable de-escalation of armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah… could help to limit pressure on Israel’s public finance metrics.”

      However, Fitch cautions that “developments in Gaza and with Iran will still play an important role in determining Israel’s fiscal and economic trajectory.”

      The credit ratings agency says it expects the war in Gaza to continue into 2025.

      “This implies continued elevated spending on immediate military needs, and disruption to production in the border areas, as well as to tourism and construction,” Fitch comments.

      In August Fitch downgraded Israel’s credit rating from A+ to A, and kept the rating outlook negative, warning that a further downgrade was possible in case of a “lengthening and/or widening of the conflict that would have a material and prolonged impact on the economy and public finances.”


    Survivors


    Personal Stories
     "At Night, Everything Surfaces": Eitan Returned from Captivity a Year Ago and Fears for His Father Still Held There

    Eitan Yahalomi was kidnapped alone to Gaza at age 12, after his mother and sisters managed to escape, and his father Ohad was taken separately. A year has passed since his return home, but the trauma of captivity, the destruction of their kibbutz, and the struggle to bring back his father and the other hostages remain. "I got a new Eitan," says his mother. "There is a routine, but the fears rise at night."

    The Yahalomi family was kidnapped on October 7: the mother, Bat Sheva, and her two young daughters were taken on one motorcycle, Eitan on another, and the injured father Ohad was kidnapped later. Near the border, the terrorist riding with the daughters panicked, causing the motorcycle to crash. Bat Sheva managed to escape with her daughters, watching as Eitan was taken further into Gaza.

    After 52 days in captivity, 16 of them alone, Eitan returned home—but home was not the same. His kibbutz, Nir Oz, had been destroyed, and the community relocated to Karmey Gat. "I received a new Eitan, a completely different child," says Bat Sheva. "On the one hand, he faces the 'usual' challenges of a child in a new environment—starting a new school, making new friends, adapting to a different setting. It distracts him. He seems to have a routine, but at night, everything surfaces. Eitan doesn't sleep. He developed a method of keeping himself awake late to collapse from exhaustion, afraid of the thoughts that come before sleep."

    Eitan was kidnapped at 12, and his mother notes, "Just two months after he returned, he entered adolescence fully—he's so tall, taller than me. He suddenly looks different. His sister Yael is also entering adolescence, which is a challenge in itself. Let's just say maturity isn’t fully there at this age. To an outsider, the children who returned from captivity may seem 'normal'—they do silly things kids do, experience the usual struggles, but at night, the fears and anxieties rise."

    "At night, Eitan also talks about Ohad (the father still captive), when he's lost in his thoughts," Bat Sheva says. "Recently, he asked why it's so complicated, why it's taking so long. He declared that he wanted to meet the Prime Minister to explain. It was such sweet innocence."


    "We have no news about Ohad," Bat Sheva continues. "That's the worst—to be on shaky ground, with no certainty. It's incomprehensible that so much time has passed. It’s gut-wrenching. I don’t want to imagine what this time is doing to the hostages. Every day is another weight of despair on their shoulders. We were in that hell for just one day, feeling like no one was coming to save us. What do they feel?"


    "Time is against us," she explains. "It’s human nature to emotionally distance from an event as time goes by. The public must keep supporting our fight and keeping this a priority. It’s not just about us, the families—it’s about what kind of country we will be after the war."

    Despite still being incomplete, the Yahalomi family marks Eitan’s return. "We’ll do something symbolic for the year since his return. We got our child back; it’s like a second birthday, and we understand what a miracle it is that he’s here. But alongside that, we still live October 7 every day. The image of Ohad is with us—on the car, on the fridge, always in our minds—the last time we saw him, on the floor at home, waiting to be rescued. And the hostages are still waiting to be rescued. Without them, we can’t even begin to heal. We are strong, we will survive, but we need to close this chapter." link

    Dark Legacy - The Abandonment of October 7th Hostages




    Between a Good Leader and Taxidermy Product
    Prof. Asa Kasher
    Professor Emeritus of Professional Ethics and Philosophy
    at Tel Aviv University, Israel Prize Laureate in General Philosophy.

    Once, in a faraway country, I visited a special natural history museum. A spacious hall featured taxidermy products. Stuffed animals, life-sized, in everyday poses, in full colorful splendor. The sight remained etched on my memory.
    I am reminded of these taxidermy products every time I follow the decisions and statements made by some of the prominent figures in Israeli politics, and particularly one of them, the most prominent of them all, absorbing the possibility of this taxidermy product turning into a poison machine.
    A successful leader, all the more so an excellent leader, is supposed to possess distinct qualities and virtues: dedication to the good of the public, loyalty to a comprehensive and consistent conception of state and civic affairs, adherence to the historical vision of the state, absolute moral discipline, strict adherence to the ethical demands of the role, ability to make decisions based on thorough preparatory work carried out by a professional staff, willingness to openly bear responsibility for every decision with all its consequences, modesty, and recognition of the duty to create public trust in the leader possessing these traits.
    These are the qualities and virtues of a good leader. All of the opposite traits are present in a leader who belongs to the taxidermy family.
    Holding the public good as his top priority is the mark of a good leader, more important than any other personal or public benefit. Self-interest is the top priority of a leader who belongs to the taxidermy family.
    Loyalty to a strong and justified value-based conception in matters dealing with state and citizens is the guiding beacon of a good leader. Absence of a stable value-based conception and the willingness to adopt an opportunistic conception for the needs of an empty ego dominate the leader who belongs to the taxidermy family.
    Visible adherence to the historical vision of establishing an exemplary state and maintaining a model society is evident in the major decisions of a good leader. Complete indifference to the historical vision and exclusive interest in current issues characterize a leader who belongs to the taxidermy family.
    Conduct governed by moral principles, and first and foremost the duty to preserve human dignity, is expressed in the behavior of a good leader. Habits such as lying, breaking promises, ulterior motives, association with immoral elements and disregard for integrity are expressed in the conduct of a leader that belongs to the taxidermy family.
    Strict adherence to the values and norms of mandatory professional and organizational ethics, thus expressing the outlines of his senior role, with its accompanying responsibilities and duties, is evident in the conduct of a good leader. The habit of ignoring the demands of fairness and integrity, among other values and norms of ethics, is evident in the conduct of a leader who belongs to the taxidermy family.
    The ability to manage the complex system for which he is responsible, based on the data, assessments, and recommendations of a professional, experienced, and sophisticated staff underlie the judgment of the good leader. Numerous improvisations, excessive self-confidence, and disregard for professional realms underlie the failing activity of a leader who belongs to the taxidermy family.
    The opposite of willingness to bear full responsibility, the opposite of modesty, and the opposite of success in creating broad and stable public trust characterize a leader who belongs to the taxidermy family.
    It breaks our hearts to see the hostages in the hands of the enemy, living under extreme and immediate danger, subject to the antics of a leader who belongs to the taxidermy family, instead of them being brought back home by a good leader.

    Acronyms and Glossary

    COGAT - Coordination of Government Activities in the Territories

    ICC - International Criminal Court in the Hague

    IJC - International Court of Justice in the Hague

    MDA - Magen David Adom - Israel Ambulance Corp

    PA - Palestinian Authority - President Mahmud Abbas, aka Abu Mazen

    PMO- Prime Minister's Office

    UAV - Unmanned Aerial vehicle, Drone. Could be used for surveillance and reconnaissance, or be weaponized with missiles or contain explosives for 'suicide' explosion mission

    Join my Whatsapp update group https://chat.whatsapp.com/IQ3OtwE6ydxBeBAxWNziB0 
    Twitter - @LonnyB58 
    Bluesky - @lonny-b.bsky.social

    Comments

    Popular posts from this blog

    This is the question that everyone has - October 7 - How Did We Get Here?

    πŸŽ—️Lonny's War Update- October 239, 2023 - June 1, 2024 πŸŽ—️

    πŸŽ—️Lonny's War Update- October 260, 2023 - June 22, 2024 πŸŽ—️