π️Lonny's War Update- October 256, 2023 - June 18, 2024 π️
π️Day 256 that 120 of our hostages in Hamas captivity
**There is nothing more important than getting them home! NOTHING!**
“I’ve never met them,But I miss them. I’ve never met them,but I think of them every second. I’ve never met them,but they are my family. BRING THEM HOME NOW!!!”
There is no victory until all of the hostages are home!ΧΧΧ Χ Χ¦ΧΧΧ Χ’Χ Χ©ΧΧ ΧΧΧΧΧ€ΧΧ ΧΧΧΧͺ
Red Alerts - Missile, Rocket, Drone (UAV - unmanned aerial vehicles), and Terror Attacks and Death Announcements
*2:40am- south - rockets Sufa, Gaza Border communities*9:40am- south - rockets Kerem Shalom, Gaza border communities*12:20pm - north - hostile aircraft - Golan, Western Galilee region*3:10pm - north - hostile aircraft - Golan, Western Galilee region - the army announced htat it shot down 3 UAVs over Western Galilee*4:35pm - south - rockets Kerem Shalom, Gaza border communitiesWe had a 60 hour period of relative quiet due to the Muslim Holiday Id Al Adhar but the rockets returned today.*7:15pm - North - hostile aircraft - Golan, Western Galilee *7:25pm - north - rockets/missiles Kibbutz Manara
Hostage Updates
- Dozens of hostages are alive ‘with certainty’ — top Israeli negotiator: A senior Israeli negotiator tells AFP that dozens of hostages held by Hamas in Gaza are certainly alive and that Israel cannot accept halting the war until all captives are released in a deal.
“Dozens are alive with certainty,” the official said on condition of anonymity as he was not authorized to speak publicly on the issue. “We cannot leave them there a long time. They will die,” he says, adding that a vast majority of them are being held by Hamas terrorists.
The official says Israel cannot end the conflict with Hamas before a hostage deal because the terror group could “breach their commitment… and drag out the negotiations for 10 years” or more. “We cannot, at this point in time — before signing the agreement — commit to ending the war,” the official says.
“Because during the first phase, there’s a clause that we hold negotiations about the second phase. The second phase is the release of the men and male soldier hostages.”
The official says the Israeli negotiating team had green-lit the Biden plan. “We expect, and are waiting for, Hamas to say ‘yes,'” the official says. “In the event we don’t reach an agreement with Hamas, the IDF will continue to fight in the Gaza Strip in a no less intense fashion than it’s fighting now,” he says. “In a different manner, but an intense manner.
Amit Soussana, who was the first released Israeli hostage to come forward about the sexual abuse she endured in captivity, addresses a White House event marking International Day for the Elimination of Sexual Violence in Conflict.
“If someone had told me a few months ago while I was sitting in a dark room in Gaza tied up by my ankle and unable to move that I would be standing here today before you all, I would have thought that they were out of their mind,” she tells attendees shortly after meeting US Vice President Kamala Harris.
“Being in captivity means having no control over your mind, body or soul. You have absolutely no control over what happens to you. All your basic human rights are taken from you. Even your feelings are completely controlled by someone else,” says Soussana.
“Back then, I had no voice, no choice. I had no control whatsoever over my own life. I knew that my home and the people that I love were so close to me — just a few minutes drive from where I was being held. Yet they felt so far and out of reach. I feared that I would never get to see them again. I thought that I would never return home.”
“But I was lucky. I was one of the few who were released on the last day of the temporary ceasefire as part of the hostage exchange agreement (in late November).” “Standing here today, I realize how fortunate I am to be alive, to be free, to be safe and able to share my story with you.” “I realize that I could have just as easily still be there, perhaps even killed, with my story being told to you by others are lost and never told.”
“As difficult as it is for me to speak out, to talk to you about this very private, intimate experience that happened to me. It is far more difficult to stay silent.” “I don’t see myself as a victim. I am a strong independent woman, and no one can change that. The sexual assault I experienced should never happen to any human being under any circumstances. No one should ever be sexually violated, and there are no justifying circumstances for these crimes.”
“I remember telling myself that no matter what happens to me, if I will come out of it alive. I would grow stronger from it and not let what happened define me.”
“Yes, it will always be a part of my story, but with time the trauma will subside, and these difficult events will empower me. Back then, I did not have any choice. I had to do what I was told in order to stay alive. Now I have a choice and I have decided I cannot stay silent.”
“I must speak about the horrible things that are probably still happening there to innocent women and men.” “My recovery depends on the rescue of my sisters and brothers who are still there. My wounds cannot even begin to heal as long as their suffering continues.”
“When I was in Gaza during the first days of the war, I saw President Biden’s plane landing in Israel. It gave me such hope and strengthened me knowing that Israel’s best friend was coming to our aid. President Biden’s last speech renewed my hope that we can move forward with a deal and release all [the] hostages as soon as possible. I really, really hope that it will happen soon,” she concludes. link
Amit is a true hero. She endured horrible trauma from October 7, the day of her abduction and throughout her captivity. She has amazing inner strength to be able to talk about her continuous ordeal of almost 2 months and her statement that she cannot heal until all the hostages are home is the most important and powerful of all. We as a country cannot heal until all the hostages are home!
- Harris: I fear testimony on Hamas sexual violence will increase as more hostages released: US Vice President Kamala Harris expresses her concern that testimony on Hamas’s use of sexual violence will only increase as more hostages are released from Gaza.
Speaking at a White House event raising awareness on conflict-related sexual violence, Harris recalls stories she’s heard from former hostages, including Amit Sussana who was the first hostage to come forward publicly about the sexual abuse she endured in captivity.
Sussana is also participating in the White House event, which includes the screening of Sheryl Sandberg’s Screams Before Silence — a documentary on the sexual violence perpetrated by Hamas-led terrorists during the October 7 onslaught.
“On October 7, Hamas committed horrific acts of sexual violence,” Harris says in her remarks. “In the days after October 7, I saw images of bloodied Israeli women abducted… Hamas committed rape and gang rape at the Nova music festival, and women’s bodies were found naked from the waist down, hands tied behind their back[s] and shot in the head.”
“I’ve heard the stories of a former hostage of what she witnessed and heard in captivity. I just met with Amit, a survivor who has bravely come forward with her account of sexual violence while she was held captive by Hamas.”
“These testimonies, I fear, will only increase as more hostages are released.”
“We cannot look away and we will not be silent,” Harris says. “My heart breaks for all these survivors and their families and for all the pain and suffering in the past eight months in Israel and in Gaza.”
In an apparent indirect reference to allegations of sexual violence perpetrated against Palestinian terror suspects by Israeli security forces — charges Israel has denied — Harris says, “We are deeply concerned by all reports of sexual violence and degradation, and we mourn every innocent life lost in this conflict.”
It is devastating, which is why President Biden and I have made clear that Hamas needs to accept the deal that is on the table for a ceasefire, which would bring the hostages home and lead to a permanent end to hostilities,” the vice president adds.
Hostage Updates
- Dozens of hostages are alive ‘with certainty’ — top Israeli negotiator: A senior Israeli negotiator tells AFP that dozens of hostages held by Hamas in Gaza are certainly alive and that Israel cannot accept halting the war until all captives are released in a deal.
“Dozens are alive with certainty,” the official said on condition of anonymity as he was not authorized to speak publicly on the issue. “We cannot leave them there a long time. They will die,” he says, adding that a vast majority of them are being held by Hamas terrorists.
The official says Israel cannot end the conflict with Hamas before a hostage deal because the terror group could “breach their commitment… and drag out the negotiations for 10 years” or more. “We cannot, at this point in time — before signing the agreement — commit to ending the war,” the official says.
“Because during the first phase, there’s a clause that we hold negotiations about the second phase. The second phase is the release of the men and male soldier hostages.”
The official says the Israeli negotiating team had green-lit the Biden plan. “We expect, and are waiting for, Hamas to say ‘yes,'” the official says. “In the event we don’t reach an agreement with Hamas, the IDF will continue to fight in the Gaza Strip in a no less intense fashion than it’s fighting now,” he says. “In a different manner, but an intense manner.
Amit Soussana, who was the first released Israeli hostage to come forward about the sexual abuse she endured in captivity, addresses a White House event marking International Day for the Elimination of Sexual Violence in Conflict.
“If someone had told me a few months ago while I was sitting in a dark room in Gaza tied up by my ankle and unable to move that I would be standing here today before you all, I would have thought that they were out of their mind,” she tells attendees shortly after meeting US Vice President Kamala Harris.
“Being in captivity means having no control over your mind, body or soul. You have absolutely no control over what happens to you. All your basic human rights are taken from you. Even your feelings are completely controlled by someone else,” says Soussana.
“Back then, I had no voice, no choice. I had no control whatsoever over my own life. I knew that my home and the people that I love were so close to me — just a few minutes drive from where I was being held. Yet they felt so far and out of reach. I feared that I would never get to see them again. I thought that I would never return home.”
“But I was lucky. I was one of the few who were released on the last day of the temporary ceasefire as part of the hostage exchange agreement (in late November).” “Standing here today, I realize how fortunate I am to be alive, to be free, to be safe and able to share my story with you.” “I realize that I could have just as easily still be there, perhaps even killed, with my story being told to you by others are lost and never told.”
“As difficult as it is for me to speak out, to talk to you about this very private, intimate experience that happened to me. It is far more difficult to stay silent.” “I don’t see myself as a victim. I am a strong independent woman, and no one can change that. The sexual assault I experienced should never happen to any human being under any circumstances. No one should ever be sexually violated, and there are no justifying circumstances for these crimes.”
“I remember telling myself that no matter what happens to me, if I will come out of it alive. I would grow stronger from it and not let what happened define me.”
“Yes, it will always be a part of my story, but with time the trauma will subside, and these difficult events will empower me. Back then, I did not have any choice. I had to do what I was told in order to stay alive. Now I have a choice and I have decided I cannot stay silent.”
“I must speak about the horrible things that are probably still happening there to innocent women and men.” “My recovery depends on the rescue of my sisters and brothers who are still there. My wounds cannot even begin to heal as long as their suffering continues.”
“When I was in Gaza during the first days of the war, I saw President Biden’s plane landing in Israel. It gave me such hope and strengthened me knowing that Israel’s best friend was coming to our aid. President Biden’s last speech renewed my hope that we can move forward with a deal and release all [the] hostages as soon as possible. I really, really hope that it will happen soon,” she concludes. link
Amit is a true hero. She endured horrible trauma from October 7, the day of her abduction and throughout her captivity. She has amazing inner strength to be able to talk about her continuous ordeal of almost 2 months and her statement that she cannot heal until all the hostages are home is the most important and powerful of all. We as a country cannot heal until all the hostages are home!- Harris: I fear testimony on Hamas sexual violence will increase as more hostages released:US Vice President Kamala Harris expresses her concern that testimony on Hamas’s use of sexual violence will only increase as more hostages are released from Gaza.
Speaking at a White House event raising awareness on conflict-related sexual violence, Harris recalls stories she’s heard from former hostages, including Amit Sussana who was the first hostage to come forward publicly about the sexual abuse she endured in captivity.
Sussana is also participating in the White House event, which includes the screening of Sheryl Sandberg’s Screams Before Silence — a documentary on the sexual violence perpetrated by Hamas-led terrorists during the October 7 onslaught.
“On October 7, Hamas committed horrific acts of sexual violence,” Harris says in her remarks. “In the days after October 7, I saw images of bloodied Israeli women abducted… Hamas committed rape and gang rape at the Nova music festival, and women’s bodies were found naked from the waist down, hands tied behind their back[s] and shot in the head.”
“I’ve heard the stories of a former hostage of what she witnessed and heard in captivity. I just met with Amit, a survivor who has bravely come forward with her account of sexual violence while she was held captive by Hamas.”
“These testimonies, I fear, will only increase as more hostages are released.”
“We cannot look away and we will not be silent,” Harris says. “My heart breaks for all these survivors and their families and for all the pain and suffering in the past eight months in Israel and in Gaza.”
In an apparent indirect reference to allegations of sexual violence perpetrated against Palestinian terror suspects by Israeli security forces — charges Israel has denied — Harris says, “We are deeply concerned by all reports of sexual violence and degradation, and we mourn every innocent life lost in this conflict.”
It is devastating, which is why President Biden and I have made clear that Hamas needs to accept the deal that is on the table for a ceasefire, which would bring the hostages home and lead to a permanent end to hostilities,” the vice president adds.
Gaza
Hamas sees daily small attacks as success in Gaza - analysis
Even if Hamas saw most of its 24 battalions shattered and
saw losses mount to include between half and two-thirds of its October 7
manpower, the group has clearly not been shocked into defeat.
The IDF continues to grind down Hamas in Rafah, with
hundreds of terrorists killed in operations since early May.
Two of the Hamas battalions in Gaza have been beaten, and
two more are now suffering losses. Hamas fighters are fleeing to Mawasi, the
humanitarian zone in Gaza. Hamas has
lost a large number of the terrorists it had on October 7, possibly up to 17,000
fighters. However, the terrorist group continues to put on a mask of “this is
fine.”
For months, the terrorist group has been saying that it
transitioned to a new kind of war, splitting battalions into smaller units,
small cells composed of three to five men. They pop up out of tunnels and they
grab AK-47s stashed in buildings, while others have access to mortars or 107
mm. rockets and RPGs. They are also booby-trapping buildings and targeting
armored vehicles. Evidence of this comes from the killing of 12 soldiers in
several days, including in a disaster that occurred to a Namer APC, killing
eight troops in one instance.
Hamas sees the IDF’s positions in the Netzarim Corridor and
the Philadelphi route as targets of opportunity. For instance, according to
pro-Iranian Al Mayadeen media, Hamas targeted soldiers in ambushes. What is
noteworthy here is the reliance of Hamas and Al Mayadeen on Israeli media to
confirm whether the attacks were actually successful, as occurred on Sunday.
This reliance may indicate that Hamas is having a tougher
time getting its messages out of Gaza, or perhaps even that pro-Hamas outlets
don’t always trust Hamas’s bragging. Terrorist
organizations collaborating
The terrorist groups in Gaza continue to work in tandem to
target the IDF. For instance, Palestinian Islamic Jihad said it attacked an IDF
patrol in a Rafah neighborhood, and that it has been carrying out attacks
during Eid al-Adha.
The terrorist groups said they targeted the Netzarim
Corridor and also the Sufa outpost, near Kibbutz Sufa, and launched mortars
into several areas of Rafah, while a different terrorist unit, called the
National Resistance Brigades, also known as Martyr Omar al-Qasim Forces of the
Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine, carried out an attack in Tel
al-Sultan using mortars.
Meanwhile, Hamas claimed it targeted a Namer APC using its
al-Yassin 105 missiles, according to Al Mayadeen, referencing the Saturday
attack.
Hamas portrays these attacks as complex and sophisticated.
The question, then, is whether Hamas is actually able to carry out complex and
sophisticated insurgent-style attacks. If it has indeed lost so many men and
battalions, it is unclear how it is able to carry out these attacks with any
coordination or regularity.
It is clear that Hamas is now leaning on other terror
groups, such as PIJ’s al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades and the DFLP. However, it also appears that Hamas has been
able to recruit and that its strategy of sending its battalions to the ground
and dispersing them is providing it the manpower it needs to keep fighting.
Not only that, Hamas and the other groups appear to
increasingly try to coordinate attacks on the Netzarim Corridor. Now, Hamas has
the depth in Gaza to do this because the IDF has not operated much in the
central camps area. Additionally, the terror groups have reconstituted themselves
in northern Gaza, and are doing the same in Khan Yunis and Mawasi.
Even if Hamas saw most of its 24 battalions shattered along
with losses amounting to half and two-thirds of its October 7 manpower, the
group has clearly not been shocked into defeat. It has not fallen apart or seen
areas of Gaza slip from its control. If Hamas is able to do this despite such
high losses, it is either very resilient or it had a much deeper bench than was
known. It is likely that its continued existence is beholden to a combination
of factors: Hamas had more members than estimated, it doesn’t need all its
battalions, it has recruited, it relies on other terror groups to make up for
attrition, and those groups have thousands of members.
Taken together, Hamas may have replaced a third or a half of
its losses through a combination of factors. If that is indeed the case, then
it could explain its ability to retain control and also continue to carry out
daily attacks with increasing use of booby traps and other adaptive means. link
Half of Hamas in Rafah beaten, IDF will gain full control in
two weeks
The IDF also revealed that the houses and tunnels in Rafah
had new kinds of defenses and boobytraps, with some houses having video
surveillance in each room of the given house to facilitate ambushes. The IDF on
Monday said that its Division 162 has defeated half of Hamas’s battalions in
Rafah, including killing at least 550 terrorists, as well as destroyed around
200 tunnel shafts, and eliminated the terror group’s last major rocket
inventory. Further, the IDF said that
within a couple of weeks it would likely be in control of all of Rafah and that
the final battles with the remaining two Hamas battalions in parts of Tel
al-Sultan and the eastern part of Shabura are already underway.
In addition, the IDF said that the tunnel network in Rafah,
especially near the Philadelphi Corridor with Egypt has been found to be even
more complex than those found in Khan Yunis, Jabaliya, and the military quarter
of Gaza City.
Currently, the IDF says Division 162, commanded by Brig.
Gen. Itzik Cohen, has already achieved operation control of over 60-70% of all
of Rafah with all of the 1.4 million or so civilians having long fled to
al-Muwasi on the coast, central Gaza and Khan Yunis.
IDF sources also said they believed they had killed much
more than 550 terrorists, but that this number represented actual bodies seen,
versus Hamas forces who entered a structure which was then bombed, but without
finding a body.
One of the hardest battles was fought over the “NPK” area
which is slightly north of the middle of the Philadelphi Corridor, and was the
headquarters of Hamas’s Rafah brigade commander. However, the IDF now has full control there.
IDF's invasion of Rafah
The IDF’s invasion of Rafah started on May 6 and by May 20,
it had control of around 30-40% of Rafah, including the Philadelphi Corridor. As
of May 20, the IDF had said it had killed around 130 Hamas terrorists.But given
that at some point Hamas had 4,000 to 8,000 terrorists in Rafah, it is pretty
clear that the vast majority fled with the mass of civilians who left the area.
There are some still fighting and some in hiding, waiting
for some later point to carry out guerilla warfare style attacks. Since May 20, IDF progress has been slower, but steady,
including the need for extensive time to explore the tunnel networks. To date, the IDF has identified 25 large tunnels which, at
the very least, go up to the border with Egypt.
Strangely, the IDF, while implying that it was likely that
many of them went into Egypt, would not yet confirm a single one crossing the
border. It was unclear if the hesitance to confirm was purely a
question of inspections and time or if the politics of avoiding embarrassing
the Egyptians was part of the calculation.
With Egyptian approval, the IDF is hoping to build
underground obstacles and censors on the Philadelphi Corridor to prevent the
future re-digging of cross-border smuggling tunnels. The cross-border smuggling tunnels have been key to Hamas’s
armament capabilities, including receiving weapons from Iran.
The IDF also said that the houses and tunnels in Rafah had
new kinds of defenses and boobytraps, with some houses having video
surveillance in each room of the given house to facilitate ambushes.
From the start of the war until now, Division 162 has suffered
3,800 wounded and 180 killed, with 23 fallen in the Rafah battles.
The importance of Rafah
An estimated 1.2 to 1.4 million Palestinians had taken
refuge in Rafah since the outbreak of the war. The military subsequently stated
it had evacuated 80% of the population from the area.
Amid international opposition, the IDF took the Palestinian
side of the Rafah crossing on May 7, attaining full operational control of the
crossing. The military has since been engaged in operations in the area.
Israel had maintained the importance of operating in Rafah
to eliminate the last four Hamas battalions, which it believed were still in
the region.
The Israel-Hamas war began on October 7 when Hamas launched
an attack, with thousands of terrorists infiltrating from the Gaza border and
taking more than 240 hostages into the Gaza Strip.
During the massacre, more than 1,200 Israelis and foreign
nationals were murdered, including over 350 in the Re'im music festival and
hundreds of Israeli civilians across the Gaza border communities.
120 hostages still remain in Gaza captivity. link This article refers to 4 Hamas battalions on the way to defeat. The odd thing is that, at the beginning of the Rafah operation, both Israeli and American intelligence stated that at least 2 of the battalions and probably more had left Rafah for other areas of Gaza. Neither talked about going into Egypt. While it is possible that some did, as they still had full control of the Gaza side of the Rafah crossing and the smuggling tunnels, it is unlikely that the Egyptians would have enabled so many to cross into Egyptian territory while the war is going on and Egypt is playing a critical role in the negotiations.
It is good to hear of so many Hamas terrorists being killed and defeated, but we have seen all too well that Hamas is very agile and adaptable. They have changed their tactics and are also still recruiting into their ranks. While most Gazans hate Hamas and want them gone, there are growing numbers of people who are also furious at Israel for the destruction and deaths of so many family members. The surviving family men are ripe for recruitment as they have always been the easiest for Hamas to recruit. Prior to the war, whenever someone was killed by Israeli forces, Hamas would go to the family and recruit as many of them as possible telling them that this is the best way to both get revenge and to be a Shahid, a martyr and reach heaven. Hamas is not just a terrorist organization, it is an idea, an ideology. The only way to defeat Hamas is to offer a better alternative, a governing body of Palestinians that will show the way to a better future for Gaza and the Palestinian people. That is what the US Administration has been pushing and Netanyahu has only pushed back.
The Power of the Weak: How Hamas Refuses Everyone: Despite pressure from the US, Egypt, Qatar and Israel -
Sinwar and the terror organization refuse to bend and accept the proposed
outline • What could explain the failure of the mediators, powerful and
influential countries, against such a marginal organization? • Also: Israel's
options against the asymmetry of war • Commentary
One of the interesting questions is how Hamas, a not
particularly large or strong organization, does not bend to the pressure of a
global power like the United States and two central countries in the region –
Egypt and Qatar. The organization, which is under heavy military pressure from
Israel, has suffered many losses, lost most of its territorial footholds and
its lifeline – the Philadelphi tunnels – and yet it is unwilling to accept
mediation offers that on their face seem relatively generous given its
situation.
To answer this question, one has to get inside Sinwar's
head. This is a task, as the events of October 7 taught us, that is difficult,
if not impossible. Even if clinically psychologists would characterize his
personality and decision-making as psychotic or narcissistic, the working
assumption is that there is a rational dimension to his decision-making, even
if this rationale is different from ours. Nevertheless, we can offer some
explanations for the inability of the mediators so far to bend or persuade
Sinwar.
The first explanation is that none of the mediators has a
strong enough leverage to exert on Hamas. Of the three, it is precisely Qatar
that seemingly has the three biggest levers: cutting off financial aid (which
is probably not arriving anyway at the moment), freezing the organization's
assets in its territory, and closing Hamas' offices, meaning the expulsion of
the organization's leaders from its territory. Recently, Qatar threatened for
the first time to expel Hamas' leadership from its territory, but this threat
has not yet been carried out, among other reasons because Qatar understands
that such steps would neutralize its ability to serve as an active mediator
between Israel and Hamas. Ending its mediation would also mean a decline in its
regional and international status and importance. However, beyond that, it
seems that a decline in the living conditions of Hamas' leaders does not keep
Sinwar awake at night.
Egypt's levers are even smaller than Qatar's. Although Egypt
is the "big sister" in the Arab lexicon, this sister does not have
many mediation resources and levers. Even the last lever Egypt had - control
over the Philadelphi corridor, it has effectively lost. True, the General Intelligence
Service, which is responsible for contact with Hamas, is giving it a "bear
hug", but at the bottom line, the conflicting interests outweigh the
common interests.
The importance of the United States as a mediator lies in
its ability to provide guarantees against a breach of the agreement by Israel
after it is signed. Beyond that, President Biden has no levers he can exert on
Hamas. The main lever – and perhaps the only one – is to pressure Qatar, an
allied host of U.S. military units at the largest American base in the Middle
East and enjoying the status of a non-NATO ally. However, the United States has
no interest in harming itself by harming Qatar. In this context, it may be that
the UN has a stronger lever by imposing sanctions in accordance with Chapter 7
of the UN Charter.
A second explanation is related to the fact that sanctions
on rogue players in the international system are ineffective when their very
survival is at stake. In other words, those in danger of being annihilated are
not deterred by threats from their allies or mediators. Therefore, any offer
that does not mean an absolute guarantee of a complete ceasefire will be
rejected, even at the cost of further casualties, which are not taken into
consideration anyway when deciding whether to continue or stop the war. And
finally, the pressures exerted on Israel by the international community, the
military pressure exerted by Hezbollah on the northern border, as well as the
pressure of Israeli society for a prisoner exchange deal – all these may lead
Sinwar to conclude that in the end his goal will be achieved, even if delayed.
There is a risk-taking and brinkmanship in this policy, behavior that
characterizes reckless - or courageous - leaders.
What to do about the asymmetry?
If this assessment is correct, the question then arises -
what to do? I will offer a few options without recommending a preferred course
of action. One way is simply to accept most of Hamas' demands. The advantage of
this approach is that it will bring an end to the war and the release of captives,
and perhaps allow focus on the northern arena, which in any case requires more
profound treatment - whether diplomatic or military. The downside of this
approach is that Israel will be perceived as having failed to achieve the
military goals of toppling and removing Hamas, as well as strengthening Hamas'
self-image as having effectively defeated Israel by surviving. In this sense,
the October 7 war will be similar to the Suez and Yom Kippur wars, which ended
in an Israeli military victory but a political victory for the enemy, whether
it was Abdel Nasser or Sadat.
The second option is to start seriously working on plans to
rebuild Gaza under an alternative leadership, not one relying on a
military-civilian administration or local collaborating clans, but on a
sovereign body with international legitimacy, such as the Palestinian
Authority, but under different leadership that enjoys local legitimacy. The
return of the Authority to Gaza, backed by moderate Arab states, would pose a
real threat to the remnants of Hamas rule in Gaza. This option also encompasses
progress in normalization with Saudi Arabia, which in turn would catalyze
processes of Israel's security and economic integration in the region. The
third option is to continue the war until the complete surrender of Hamas,
however, it must be assumed that this goal is not within reach as long as it
holds hostages.
The war in Gaza is asymmetric by its nature: a war between a
state and an organization, between a large army employing great force and advanced
weapons against an organization operating with limited and sometimes primitive
means and guerrilla tactics. In many ways, it is reminiscent of the Viet Cong
war in Vietnam against the United States, and we all know how that ended. A
realistic option must be chosen, that is, a combination of the first and second
options.
**>>> Prof. Eli Podeh teaches in the Department of
Islamic and Middle Eastern Studies at the Hebrew University and is a member of
the Mitvim Board of Directors** link
The IDF releases footage showing troops directing airstrikes on Hamas operatives in Rafah sometime in the past few days.
According to the military, troops from the 932nd Battalion then raided the building, eliminating a number of terrorists who it says were responsible for firing rockets and mortars at troops. Israeli forces found grenades, weapons and short-range anti-tank missiles in the building, the military says. video
Hamas sees daily small attacks as success in Gaza - analysis
Even if Hamas saw most of its 24 battalions shattered and
saw losses mount to include between half and two-thirds of its October 7
manpower, the group has clearly not been shocked into defeat.
The IDF continues to grind down Hamas in Rafah, with
hundreds of terrorists killed in operations since early May.
Two of the Hamas battalions in Gaza have been beaten, and
two more are now suffering losses. Hamas fighters are fleeing to Mawasi, the
humanitarian zone in Gaza. Hamas has
lost a large number of the terrorists it had on October 7, possibly up to 17,000
fighters. However, the terrorist group continues to put on a mask of “this is
fine.”
For months, the terrorist group has been saying that it
transitioned to a new kind of war, splitting battalions into smaller units,
small cells composed of three to five men. They pop up out of tunnels and they
grab AK-47s stashed in buildings, while others have access to mortars or 107
mm. rockets and RPGs. They are also booby-trapping buildings and targeting
armored vehicles. Evidence of this comes from the killing of 12 soldiers in
several days, including in a disaster that occurred to a Namer APC, killing
eight troops in one instance.
Hamas sees the IDF’s positions in the Netzarim Corridor and
the Philadelphi route as targets of opportunity. For instance, according to
pro-Iranian Al Mayadeen media, Hamas targeted soldiers in ambushes. What is
noteworthy here is the reliance of Hamas and Al Mayadeen on Israeli media to
confirm whether the attacks were actually successful, as occurred on Sunday.
This reliance may indicate that Hamas is having a tougher
time getting its messages out of Gaza, or perhaps even that pro-Hamas outlets
don’t always trust Hamas’s bragging. Terrorist
organizations collaborating
The terrorist groups in Gaza continue to work in tandem to
target the IDF. For instance, Palestinian Islamic Jihad said it attacked an IDF
patrol in a Rafah neighborhood, and that it has been carrying out attacks
during Eid al-Adha.
The terrorist groups said they targeted the Netzarim
Corridor and also the Sufa outpost, near Kibbutz Sufa, and launched mortars
into several areas of Rafah, while a different terrorist unit, called the
National Resistance Brigades, also known as Martyr Omar al-Qasim Forces of the
Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine, carried out an attack in Tel
al-Sultan using mortars.
Meanwhile, Hamas claimed it targeted a Namer APC using its
al-Yassin 105 missiles, according to Al Mayadeen, referencing the Saturday
attack.
Hamas portrays these attacks as complex and sophisticated.
The question, then, is whether Hamas is actually able to carry out complex and
sophisticated insurgent-style attacks. If it has indeed lost so many men and
battalions, it is unclear how it is able to carry out these attacks with any
coordination or regularity.
It is clear that Hamas is now leaning on other terror
groups, such as PIJ’s al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades and the DFLP. However, it also appears that Hamas has been
able to recruit and that its strategy of sending its battalions to the ground
and dispersing them is providing it the manpower it needs to keep fighting.
Not only that, Hamas and the other groups appear to
increasingly try to coordinate attacks on the Netzarim Corridor. Now, Hamas has
the depth in Gaza to do this because the IDF has not operated much in the
central camps area. Additionally, the terror groups have reconstituted themselves
in northern Gaza, and are doing the same in Khan Yunis and Mawasi.
Even if Hamas saw most of its 24 battalions shattered along
with losses amounting to half and two-thirds of its October 7 manpower, the
group has clearly not been shocked into defeat. It has not fallen apart or seen
areas of Gaza slip from its control. If Hamas is able to do this despite such
high losses, it is either very resilient or it had a much deeper bench than was
known. It is likely that its continued existence is beholden to a combination
of factors: Hamas had more members than estimated, it doesn’t need all its
battalions, it has recruited, it relies on other terror groups to make up for
attrition, and those groups have thousands of members.
Taken together, Hamas may have replaced a third or a half of its losses through a combination of factors. If that is indeed the case, then it could explain its ability to retain control and also continue to carry out daily attacks with increasing use of booby traps and other adaptive means. link
Half of Hamas in Rafah beaten, IDF will gain full control in
two weeks
The IDF also revealed that the houses and tunnels in Rafah
had new kinds of defenses and boobytraps, with some houses having video
surveillance in each room of the given house to facilitate ambushes. The IDF on
Monday said that its Division 162 has defeated half of Hamas’s battalions in
Rafah, including killing at least 550 terrorists, as well as destroyed around
200 tunnel shafts, and eliminated the terror group’s last major rocket
inventory. Further, the IDF said that
within a couple of weeks it would likely be in control of all of Rafah and that
the final battles with the remaining two Hamas battalions in parts of Tel
al-Sultan and the eastern part of Shabura are already underway.
In addition, the IDF said that the tunnel network in Rafah,
especially near the Philadelphi Corridor with Egypt has been found to be even
more complex than those found in Khan Yunis, Jabaliya, and the military quarter
of Gaza City.
Currently, the IDF says Division 162, commanded by Brig.
Gen. Itzik Cohen, has already achieved operation control of over 60-70% of all
of Rafah with all of the 1.4 million or so civilians having long fled to
al-Muwasi on the coast, central Gaza and Khan Yunis.
IDF sources also said they believed they had killed much
more than 550 terrorists, but that this number represented actual bodies seen,
versus Hamas forces who entered a structure which was then bombed, but without
finding a body.
One of the hardest battles was fought over the “NPK” area which is slightly north of the middle of the Philadelphi Corridor, and was the headquarters of Hamas’s Rafah brigade commander. However, the IDF now has full control there.
IDF's invasion of Rafah
The IDF’s invasion of Rafah started on May 6 and by May 20,
it had control of around 30-40% of Rafah, including the Philadelphi Corridor. As
of May 20, the IDF had said it had killed around 130 Hamas terrorists.But given
that at some point Hamas had 4,000 to 8,000 terrorists in Rafah, it is pretty
clear that the vast majority fled with the mass of civilians who left the area.
There are some still fighting and some in hiding, waiting for some later point to carry out guerilla warfare style attacks. Since May 20, IDF progress has been slower, but steady, including the need for extensive time to explore the tunnel networks. To date, the IDF has identified 25 large tunnels which, at the very least, go up to the border with Egypt.
Strangely, the IDF, while implying that it was likely that many of them went into Egypt, would not yet confirm a single one crossing the border. It was unclear if the hesitance to confirm was purely a question of inspections and time or if the politics of avoiding embarrassing the Egyptians was part of the calculation.
With Egyptian approval, the IDF is hoping to build underground obstacles and censors on the Philadelphi Corridor to prevent the future re-digging of cross-border smuggling tunnels. The cross-border smuggling tunnels have been key to Hamas’s armament capabilities, including receiving weapons from Iran.
The IDF also said that the houses and tunnels in Rafah had
new kinds of defenses and boobytraps, with some houses having video
surveillance in each room of the given house to facilitate ambushes.
From the start of the war until now, Division 162 has suffered
3,800 wounded and 180 killed, with 23 fallen in the Rafah battles.
The importance of Rafah
An estimated 1.2 to 1.4 million Palestinians had taken
refuge in Rafah since the outbreak of the war. The military subsequently stated
it had evacuated 80% of the population from the area.
Amid international opposition, the IDF took the Palestinian
side of the Rafah crossing on May 7, attaining full operational control of the
crossing. The military has since been engaged in operations in the area.
Israel had maintained the importance of operating in Rafah
to eliminate the last four Hamas battalions, which it believed were still in
the region.
The Israel-Hamas war began on October 7 when Hamas launched
an attack, with thousands of terrorists infiltrating from the Gaza border and
taking more than 240 hostages into the Gaza Strip.
During the massacre, more than 1,200 Israelis and foreign
nationals were murdered, including over 350 in the Re'im music festival and
hundreds of Israeli civilians across the Gaza border communities.
120 hostages still remain in Gaza captivity. link This article refers to 4 Hamas battalions on the way to defeat. The odd thing is that, at the beginning of the Rafah operation, both Israeli and American intelligence stated that at least 2 of the battalions and probably more had left Rafah for other areas of Gaza. Neither talked about going into Egypt. While it is possible that some did, as they still had full control of the Gaza side of the Rafah crossing and the smuggling tunnels, it is unlikely that the Egyptians would have enabled so many to cross into Egyptian territory while the war is going on and Egypt is playing a critical role in the negotiations.
It is good to hear of so many Hamas terrorists being killed and defeated, but we have seen all too well that Hamas is very agile and adaptable. They have changed their tactics and are also still recruiting into their ranks. While most Gazans hate Hamas and want them gone, there are growing numbers of people who are also furious at Israel for the destruction and deaths of so many family members. The surviving family men are ripe for recruitment as they have always been the easiest for Hamas to recruit. Prior to the war, whenever someone was killed by Israeli forces, Hamas would go to the family and recruit as many of them as possible telling them that this is the best way to both get revenge and to be a Shahid, a martyr and reach heaven. Hamas is not just a terrorist organization, it is an idea, an ideology. The only way to defeat Hamas is to offer a better alternative, a governing body of Palestinians that will show the way to a better future for Gaza and the Palestinian people. That is what the US Administration has been pushing and Netanyahu has only pushed back.
The Power of the Weak: How Hamas Refuses Everyone: Despite pressure from the US, Egypt, Qatar and Israel - Sinwar and the terror organization refuse to bend and accept the proposed outline • What could explain the failure of the mediators, powerful and influential countries, against such a marginal organization? • Also: Israel's options against the asymmetry of war • Commentary
One of the interesting questions is how Hamas, a not
particularly large or strong organization, does not bend to the pressure of a
global power like the United States and two central countries in the region –
Egypt and Qatar. The organization, which is under heavy military pressure from
Israel, has suffered many losses, lost most of its territorial footholds and
its lifeline – the Philadelphi tunnels – and yet it is unwilling to accept
mediation offers that on their face seem relatively generous given its
situation.
To answer this question, one has to get inside Sinwar's
head. This is a task, as the events of October 7 taught us, that is difficult,
if not impossible. Even if clinically psychologists would characterize his
personality and decision-making as psychotic or narcissistic, the working
assumption is that there is a rational dimension to his decision-making, even
if this rationale is different from ours. Nevertheless, we can offer some
explanations for the inability of the mediators so far to bend or persuade
Sinwar.
The first explanation is that none of the mediators has a
strong enough leverage to exert on Hamas. Of the three, it is precisely Qatar
that seemingly has the three biggest levers: cutting off financial aid (which
is probably not arriving anyway at the moment), freezing the organization's
assets in its territory, and closing Hamas' offices, meaning the expulsion of
the organization's leaders from its territory. Recently, Qatar threatened for
the first time to expel Hamas' leadership from its territory, but this threat
has not yet been carried out, among other reasons because Qatar understands
that such steps would neutralize its ability to serve as an active mediator
between Israel and Hamas. Ending its mediation would also mean a decline in its
regional and international status and importance. However, beyond that, it
seems that a decline in the living conditions of Hamas' leaders does not keep
Sinwar awake at night.
Egypt's levers are even smaller than Qatar's. Although Egypt
is the "big sister" in the Arab lexicon, this sister does not have
many mediation resources and levers. Even the last lever Egypt had - control
over the Philadelphi corridor, it has effectively lost. True, the General Intelligence
Service, which is responsible for contact with Hamas, is giving it a "bear
hug", but at the bottom line, the conflicting interests outweigh the
common interests.
The importance of the United States as a mediator lies in
its ability to provide guarantees against a breach of the agreement by Israel
after it is signed. Beyond that, President Biden has no levers he can exert on
Hamas. The main lever – and perhaps the only one – is to pressure Qatar, an
allied host of U.S. military units at the largest American base in the Middle
East and enjoying the status of a non-NATO ally. However, the United States has
no interest in harming itself by harming Qatar. In this context, it may be that
the UN has a stronger lever by imposing sanctions in accordance with Chapter 7
of the UN Charter.
A second explanation is related to the fact that sanctions
on rogue players in the international system are ineffective when their very
survival is at stake. In other words, those in danger of being annihilated are
not deterred by threats from their allies or mediators. Therefore, any offer
that does not mean an absolute guarantee of a complete ceasefire will be
rejected, even at the cost of further casualties, which are not taken into
consideration anyway when deciding whether to continue or stop the war. And
finally, the pressures exerted on Israel by the international community, the
military pressure exerted by Hezbollah on the northern border, as well as the
pressure of Israeli society for a prisoner exchange deal – all these may lead
Sinwar to conclude that in the end his goal will be achieved, even if delayed.
There is a risk-taking and brinkmanship in this policy, behavior that
characterizes reckless - or courageous - leaders.
What to do about the asymmetry?
If this assessment is correct, the question then arises -
what to do? I will offer a few options without recommending a preferred course
of action. One way is simply to accept most of Hamas' demands. The advantage of
this approach is that it will bring an end to the war and the release of captives,
and perhaps allow focus on the northern arena, which in any case requires more
profound treatment - whether diplomatic or military. The downside of this
approach is that Israel will be perceived as having failed to achieve the
military goals of toppling and removing Hamas, as well as strengthening Hamas'
self-image as having effectively defeated Israel by surviving. In this sense,
the October 7 war will be similar to the Suez and Yom Kippur wars, which ended
in an Israeli military victory but a political victory for the enemy, whether
it was Abdel Nasser or Sadat.
The second option is to start seriously working on plans to rebuild Gaza under an alternative leadership, not one relying on a military-civilian administration or local collaborating clans, but on a sovereign body with international legitimacy, such as the Palestinian Authority, but under different leadership that enjoys local legitimacy. The return of the Authority to Gaza, backed by moderate Arab states, would pose a real threat to the remnants of Hamas rule in Gaza. This option also encompasses progress in normalization with Saudi Arabia, which in turn would catalyze processes of Israel's security and economic integration in the region. The third option is to continue the war until the complete surrender of Hamas, however, it must be assumed that this goal is not within reach as long as it holds hostages.
The war in Gaza is asymmetric by its nature: a war between a
state and an organization, between a large army employing great force and advanced
weapons against an organization operating with limited and sometimes primitive
means and guerrilla tactics. In many ways, it is reminiscent of the Viet Cong
war in Vietnam against the United States, and we all know how that ended. A
realistic option must be chosen, that is, a combination of the first and second
options.
**>>> Prof. Eli Podeh teaches in the Department of
Islamic and Middle Eastern Studies at the Hebrew University and is a member of
the Mitvim Board of Directors** link
The IDF releases footage showing troops directing airstrikes on Hamas operatives in Rafah sometime in the past few days.
According to the military, troops from the 932nd Battalion then raided the building, eliminating a number of terrorists who it says were responsible for firing rockets and mortars at troops. Israeli forces found grenades, weapons and short-range anti-tank missiles in the building, the military says. video
Northern Israel - Lebanon/Hizbollah
National Unity chairman Benny Gantz met last night with visiting US envoy Amos Hochstein, his office says in a statement.
Gantz tells the envoy that “time is running out” to reach any sort of diplomatic deal to reinstate calm along Israel’s northern border with Lebanon.
According to his office, Gantz stressed to Hochstein that he is committed to “removing the threat Hezbollah poses to the citizens of northern Israel, regardless of developments on the war in Gaza.”
Gantz, who left the coalition last week, says he will therefore support “any responsible and effective political or military decision on the matter from outside the government.”
Haifa Bay and sensitive IDF infrastructures: Hezbollah claims it infiltrated a drone that returned to Lebanon
The Lebanese terrorist organization released a 9-minute video including aerial footage of Haifa Bay and IDF infrastructure in the Galilee area. The video claims: The footage was taken by a drone that safely returned to Lebanon.
Hezbollah today (Tuesday) released unusual and extraordinary aerial footage from northern Israel and claims it was filmed by a drone that infiltrated Israel - and returned to Lebanon without being shot down. The 9-minute video, approved for release by the censor, appears to show a series of sensitive sites in the Galilee.
Among other things, the video documents air defense systems, including Iron Dome batteries, a Navy base - and also Haifa Bay. There is no way to verify the credibility of the video distributed by the terrorist organization. In Israel, it is unknown whether Hezbollah filmed it, took satellite images, or performed manipulation. Publishing the footage conveys a message about the terrorist organization's preparations.
Hezbollah claims it infiltrated an aircraft documenting and filming the Haifa area - which has been a target for them since the Second Lebanon War. Israel has been prepared for years for the possibility that the port will be attacked. Hizbollah 9 minute video This is a very distutbing video. It shows just how well Hizbollah succeeds in infiltrating our airspace without being seen, caught or disturbed. They have managed to find multiple weaknesses in our air defenses and are constantly looking for more with surveillance drones as well as explosive drones which have already cost lives and property. Worst of all, the situation appears to be getting worse, not better.
National Unity chairman Benny Gantz met last night with visiting US envoy Amos Hochstein, his office says in a statement.
Gantz tells the envoy that “time is running out” to reach any sort of diplomatic deal to reinstate calm along Israel’s northern border with Lebanon.
According to his office, Gantz stressed to Hochstein that he is committed to “removing the threat Hezbollah poses to the citizens of northern Israel, regardless of developments on the war in Gaza.”
Gantz, who left the coalition last week, says he will therefore support “any responsible and effective political or military decision on the matter from outside the government.”
Haifa Bay and sensitive IDF infrastructures: Hezbollah claims it infiltrated a drone that returned to Lebanon
The Lebanese terrorist organization released a 9-minute video including aerial footage of Haifa Bay and IDF infrastructure in the Galilee area. The video claims: The footage was taken by a drone that safely returned to Lebanon.
Hezbollah today (Tuesday) released unusual and extraordinary aerial footage from northern Israel and claims it was filmed by a drone that infiltrated Israel - and returned to Lebanon without being shot down. The 9-minute video, approved for release by the censor, appears to show a series of sensitive sites in the Galilee.
Among other things, the video documents air defense systems, including Iron Dome batteries, a Navy base - and also Haifa Bay. There is no way to verify the credibility of the video distributed by the terrorist organization. In Israel, it is unknown whether Hezbollah filmed it, took satellite images, or performed manipulation. Publishing the footage conveys a message about the terrorist organization's preparations.
Hezbollah claims it infiltrated an aircraft documenting and filming the Haifa area - which has been a target for them since the Second Lebanon War. Israel has been prepared for years for the possibility that the port will be attacked. Hizbollah 9 minute video This is a very distutbing video. It shows just how well Hizbollah succeeds in infiltrating our airspace without being seen, caught or disturbed. They have managed to find multiple weaknesses in our air defenses and are constantly looking for more with surveillance drones as well as explosive drones which have already cost lives and property. Worst of all, the situation appears to be getting worse, not better.
West Bank
- The United Nations human rights chief warns that the situation in the West Bank is rapidly deteriorating, while there had been “unconscionable death and suffering” in Gaza.
“The situation in the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, is dramatically deteriorating,” Volker Turk, UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, tells the opening session of the UN Human Rights Council, noting the climbing death toll of more than 500 Palestinians and 23 Israelis since the war against Hamas began.
Turk says he is also “appalled by the disregard for international human rights and humanitarian law” by parties of the conflict in Gaza, citing both Israeli military activity in Gaza as well as the continuation of terror groups to hold hostages, including in heavily populated areas. link The situation in the West Bank is certainly deteriorating. Since before the war, Palestinians in the West Bank have not been permitted to work in Israel seriously affected the economic situation of the population, their movement has been considerably limited, more so in the first months of the war, and our 'brilliant' Finance Minister Smotrich is trying to bankrupt the Palestinian Authority and that affects the every aspect of the areas under the control of the PA.
“The situation in the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, is dramatically deteriorating,” Volker Turk, UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, tells the opening session of the UN Human Rights Council, noting the climbing death toll of more than 500 Palestinians and 23 Israelis since the war against Hamas began.
Turk says he is also “appalled by the disregard for international human rights and humanitarian law” by parties of the conflict in Gaza, citing both Israeli military activity in Gaza as well as the continuation of terror groups to hold hostages, including in heavily populated areas. link The situation in the West Bank is certainly deteriorating. Since before the war, Palestinians in the West Bank have not been permitted to work in Israel seriously affected the economic situation of the population, their movement has been considerably limited, more so in the first months of the war, and our 'brilliant' Finance Minister Smotrich is trying to bankrupt the Palestinian Authority and that affects the every aspect of the areas under the control of the PA.
Politics
What are the implications of the war cabinet's shutdown?
The move came after MK Benny Gantz left the emergency
government and far-right MKs exerted pressure, leaving the future of the war
unclear. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s decision to dissolve Israel’s
war cabinet raises several questions about the management of the war against
Hamas from now on.
The war cabinet, which was also known as the “small
cabinet,” was authorized to make day-to-day decisions regarding the war while
bringing broader policy decisions to the larger, statutory security cabinet. In
response to a query by The Jerusalem Post, a spokesperson for the Prime
Minister’s Office said that the security cabinet will now be convened at a
higher frequency. In addition, Netanyahu will hold ad-hoc “security
consultations” on specific matters when necessary.
The spokesperson did not answer a number of follow-up
questions, including what the division of responsibilities will be between the
security cabinet and these “consultations.” Furthermore, the spokesperson did not address the statutory
status of these consultations, such as whether they will be transcribed in an
official protocol like the now-defunct war cabinet did. They also did not
specify who would participate in these consultations.
The deliberations will likely serve two purposes: The first
will be to avoid having to convene the security cabinet over minor decisions,
and the second will be to keep sensitive information away from the far Right
Ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich.
Both Ben-Gvir and Smotrich, who are both members of the
security cabinet but were not appointed to the war cabinet, repeatedly
criticized the latter since its founding for policies that they believed were
not aggressive enough. In addition, many leaks emerged from the security
cabinet during the months of the war, with Ben-Gvir believed to be the source
of many of these.
Ben-Gvir, Smotrich's threats were felt
This led the prime minister to avoid including them in
certain decisions or revealing specific information. For example, according to
Ben-Gvir, Netanyahu refused to show him a draft of Israel’s latest proposal for
a ceasefire and hostage deal with Hamas.
Still, according to MKs Benny Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot of the
National Unity Party, who, until recently, were members of the war cabinet, the
presence of Ben-Gvir’s and Smotrich’s threats to leave the government over what
they deemed were unacceptable concessions to Hamas, was felt tangibly in the
room. Gantz and Eisenkot said that at one point, Netanyahu limited the mandate
given to Israel’s negotiating team without updating them due to pressure from
Smotrich.
Both Ben-Gvir and Smotrich demanded to be part of the war
cabinet once Gantz and Eisenkot left the government last week. However, instead of conceding to their requests, Netanyahu
opted to dissolve the war cabinet completely.
Nevertheless, it is clear that Ben-Gvir and Smotrich will
now enjoy even more influence over security decisions given that the security
cabinet will convene more frequently. In interviews with foreign media in
recent months, Netanyahu repeatedly distanced himself from incendiary comments
made by Ben-Gvir and Smotrich and members of their parties, such as calling for
a “voluntary emigration” of Gaza’s population or building Israeli settlements
in the Gaza Strip.
Indeed, the prime minister repeatedly argued that all
ministers were free to voice their opinions as they saw fit but that the
decisions and policies were decided on only in the war cabinet. With the war
cabinet now gone, the prime minister will likely find it more difficult to make
this argument.
Perhaps more significantly, Israel made the same argument in
the cases made against it in both the International Court of Justice and the
International Criminal Court at the Hague. Because according to Israeli
representatives, statements made by Ben-Gvir, Smotrich, and others were not
indicative of official policy, since formal Israeli policies were decided upon
within Israel’s war cabinet. With the war cabinet gone, remarks by Ben-Gvir and Smotrich
could carry more weight and may very possibly negatively affect the ongoing
cases against Israel. link Netanyahu is afraid of both Smotrich and Ben Gvir. Without them and their parties, Netanyahu doesn't have a government and we have all seen that he will do anything and everything to stay Prime Minister. This article and many more like it come from the Jerusalem Post which has been a rightist and Netanyahu support news publication for many years. Since the war, they have been far less Netanyahu leaning than ever, recognizing the price that the country is paying by him refusing to take responsibility and not leaving the public scene. It is a ludicrous and embarrassing situation within and without Israel for Netanyahu to have given 2 extremist with criminal records such important ministries and so much power over him. He doesn't trust them and they don't trust him. All three of them are dangers to the country and the impact of their actions and words are far reaching in all areas, nationally and internationally.
Some opposition MKs express cautious optimism that the Knesset may pass an ultra-Orthodox draft law which they find acceptable.
Speaking with the Times of Israel outside the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee during a debate over the ultra-Orthodox draft bill, Yesh Atid MK Moshe Tur-Paz, an alternate member of the committee, appears upbeat.
“I believe that this is very important, maybe a breakthrough that we are leading in order to integrate the ultra-Orthodox in Israel. I think we have to finish this law as soon as possible and to have many new soldiers in the IDF,” he says.
Asked if there is a real chance to modify the bill, Tur-Paz says he believes “the only way the law will pass is if it will be very clear that thousands of young ultra-Orthodox guys who are relevant to [join] the army will go into the army in the coming year. Nothing less than that will be approved by us.”
“I don’t know [how] to predict if we will succeed, but we are working very hard at it,” he adds.
Yesh Atid MK Meir Cohen sounds a similar note, calling the atmosphere in the meeting “excellent” and claiming that those in the committee “completely understand that this is a historic moment and the story isn’t just the enlargement of the army but a moral story of equality of the burden.”
Coalition lawmakers in the committee appear willing to advance a law drafting the Haredim, he adds.
New Hope chairman Gideon Sa’ar is less sanguine, however, telling the Times of Israel that a change in the law “is possible but I don’t think the government will do that.”
“I said in the discussion that if we cannot legislate a good law, it’s better not to legislate a law at all,” he states.
Israel’s national security was severely harmed by the 2005 Gaza Disengagement, far-right lawmaker Limor Son Har-Melech declares, calling for renewed Jewish settlement in the Gaza Strip following the end of the war against Hamas.
Speaking at the sparsely attended inaugural meeting of the newly-established “Knesset Caucus for the Renewal of Settlement in the Gaza Strip,” the Otzma Yehudit legislator complains that her position has led her to be branded as a messianist and says “it is time to return” to the settlements uprooted nearly two decades ago.
“The failed preconception could bring Israel back to a cycle of suffering and we have to prevent it,” she insists, arguing that without new settlements Israeli cities will remain exposed to rocket fire and that only by moving to Gaza will Israel’s enemies be convinced of their defeat.
“There is no more time to wait. That’s why we established a lobby,” she says. “We need to mobilize with all our might.”
Speaking at the meeting, former Likud lawmaker Moshe Feiglin calls for Israel to conquer the entire West Bank and Gaza and expel the Palestinians living there.
“There is no victory without settlement,” he says to applause. “From the river to the sea it is either you or me. There is no room for Israel and this Islamic Nazism. There is no room for any arrangement. The only solution is complete victory, occupation, expelling the enemy and settlement.” - these are among the most dangerous and destructive knesset members. They openly call for mass transfer of the Palestinian population both in Gaza and the West Bank, which is inhumane, colonialism, against international law and war crimes, but none of these things has any bearing on them. They can only see what is good for their fellow messianics and settlement extremists. The care nothing about the international implications especially those from the US and our Mid East neighbors and partners. They care nothing about the suffering of the hostages or their families and settlement take priority over everything else. Shame on them.
What are the implications of the war cabinet's shutdown?
The move came after MK Benny Gantz left the emergency government and far-right MKs exerted pressure, leaving the future of the war unclear. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s decision to dissolve Israel’s war cabinet raises several questions about the management of the war against Hamas from now on.
The war cabinet, which was also known as the “small cabinet,” was authorized to make day-to-day decisions regarding the war while bringing broader policy decisions to the larger, statutory security cabinet. In response to a query by The Jerusalem Post, a spokesperson for the Prime Minister’s Office said that the security cabinet will now be convened at a higher frequency. In addition, Netanyahu will hold ad-hoc “security consultations” on specific matters when necessary.
The spokesperson did not answer a number of follow-up questions, including what the division of responsibilities will be between the security cabinet and these “consultations.” Furthermore, the spokesperson did not address the statutory status of these consultations, such as whether they will be transcribed in an official protocol like the now-defunct war cabinet did. They also did not specify who would participate in these consultations.
The deliberations will likely serve two purposes: The first will be to avoid having to convene the security cabinet over minor decisions, and the second will be to keep sensitive information away from the far Right Ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich.
Both Ben-Gvir and Smotrich, who are both members of the security cabinet but were not appointed to the war cabinet, repeatedly criticized the latter since its founding for policies that they believed were not aggressive enough. In addition, many leaks emerged from the security cabinet during the months of the war, with Ben-Gvir believed to be the source of many of these.
Ben-Gvir, Smotrich's threats were felt
This led the prime minister to avoid including them in certain decisions or revealing specific information. For example, according to Ben-Gvir, Netanyahu refused to show him a draft of Israel’s latest proposal for a ceasefire and hostage deal with Hamas.
Still, according to MKs Benny Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot of the National Unity Party, who, until recently, were members of the war cabinet, the presence of Ben-Gvir’s and Smotrich’s threats to leave the government over what they deemed were unacceptable concessions to Hamas, was felt tangibly in the room. Gantz and Eisenkot said that at one point, Netanyahu limited the mandate given to Israel’s negotiating team without updating them due to pressure from Smotrich.
Both Ben-Gvir and Smotrich demanded to be part of the war cabinet once Gantz and Eisenkot left the government last week. However, instead of conceding to their requests, Netanyahu opted to dissolve the war cabinet completely.
Nevertheless, it is clear that Ben-Gvir and Smotrich will now enjoy even more influence over security decisions given that the security cabinet will convene more frequently. In interviews with foreign media in recent months, Netanyahu repeatedly distanced himself from incendiary comments made by Ben-Gvir and Smotrich and members of their parties, such as calling for a “voluntary emigration” of Gaza’s population or building Israeli settlements in the Gaza Strip.
Indeed, the prime minister repeatedly argued that all ministers were free to voice their opinions as they saw fit but that the decisions and policies were decided on only in the war cabinet. With the war cabinet now gone, the prime minister will likely find it more difficult to make this argument.
Perhaps more significantly, Israel made the same argument in the cases made against it in both the International Court of Justice and the International Criminal Court at the Hague. Because according to Israeli representatives, statements made by Ben-Gvir, Smotrich, and others were not indicative of official policy, since formal Israeli policies were decided upon within Israel’s war cabinet. With the war cabinet gone, remarks by Ben-Gvir and Smotrich could carry more weight and may very possibly negatively affect the ongoing cases against Israel. link Netanyahu is afraid of both Smotrich and Ben Gvir. Without them and their parties, Netanyahu doesn't have a government and we have all seen that he will do anything and everything to stay Prime Minister. This article and many more like it come from the Jerusalem Post which has been a rightist and Netanyahu support news publication for many years. Since the war, they have been far less Netanyahu leaning than ever, recognizing the price that the country is paying by him refusing to take responsibility and not leaving the public scene. It is a ludicrous and embarrassing situation within and without Israel for Netanyahu to have given 2 extremist with criminal records such important ministries and so much power over him. He doesn't trust them and they don't trust him. All three of them are dangers to the country and the impact of their actions and words are far reaching in all areas, nationally and internationally.
Some opposition MKs express cautious optimism that the Knesset may pass an ultra-Orthodox draft law which they find acceptable.
Speaking with the Times of Israel outside the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee during a debate over the ultra-Orthodox draft bill, Yesh Atid MK Moshe Tur-Paz, an alternate member of the committee, appears upbeat.
“I believe that this is very important, maybe a breakthrough that we are leading in order to integrate the ultra-Orthodox in Israel. I think we have to finish this law as soon as possible and to have many new soldiers in the IDF,” he says.
Asked if there is a real chance to modify the bill, Tur-Paz says he believes “the only way the law will pass is if it will be very clear that thousands of young ultra-Orthodox guys who are relevant to [join] the army will go into the army in the coming year. Nothing less than that will be approved by us.”
“I don’t know [how] to predict if we will succeed, but we are working very hard at it,” he adds.
Yesh Atid MK Meir Cohen sounds a similar note, calling the atmosphere in the meeting “excellent” and claiming that those in the committee “completely understand that this is a historic moment and the story isn’t just the enlargement of the army but a moral story of equality of the burden.”
Coalition lawmakers in the committee appear willing to advance a law drafting the Haredim, he adds.
New Hope chairman Gideon Sa’ar is less sanguine, however, telling the Times of Israel that a change in the law “is possible but I don’t think the government will do that.”
“I said in the discussion that if we cannot legislate a good law, it’s better not to legislate a law at all,” he states.
Israel’s national security was severely harmed by the 2005 Gaza Disengagement, far-right lawmaker Limor Son Har-Melech declares, calling for renewed Jewish settlement in the Gaza Strip following the end of the war against Hamas.
Speaking at the sparsely attended inaugural meeting of the newly-established “Knesset Caucus for the Renewal of Settlement in the Gaza Strip,” the Otzma Yehudit legislator complains that her position has led her to be branded as a messianist and says “it is time to return” to the settlements uprooted nearly two decades ago.
“The failed preconception could bring Israel back to a cycle of suffering and we have to prevent it,” she insists, arguing that without new settlements Israeli cities will remain exposed to rocket fire and that only by moving to Gaza will Israel’s enemies be convinced of their defeat.
“There is no more time to wait. That’s why we established a lobby,” she says. “We need to mobilize with all our might.”
Speaking at the meeting, former Likud lawmaker Moshe Feiglin calls for Israel to conquer the entire West Bank and Gaza and expel the Palestinians living there.
“There is no victory without settlement,” he says to applause. “From the river to the sea it is either you or me. There is no room for Israel and this Islamic Nazism. There is no room for any arrangement. The only solution is complete victory, occupation, expelling the enemy and settlement.” - these are among the most dangerous and destructive knesset members. They openly call for mass transfer of the Palestinian population both in Gaza and the West Bank, which is inhumane, colonialism, against international law and war crimes, but none of these things has any bearing on them. They can only see what is good for their fellow messianics and settlement extremists. The care nothing about the international implications especially those from the US and our Mid East neighbors and partners. They care nothing about the suffering of the hostages or their families and settlement take priority over everything else. Shame on them.
The Region
The US military says it has destroyed four Houthi radars, one unmanned surface vessel and one drone in the past 24 hours. The radars and unmanned surface vessel were destroyed in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen, US Central Command tweets. The drone was destroyed over the Red Sea.
The US military says it has destroyed four Houthi radars, one unmanned surface vessel and one drone in the past 24 hours. The radars and unmanned surface vessel were destroyed in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen, US Central Command tweets. The drone was destroyed over the Red Sea.
Acronyms and Glossary
ICC - International Criminal Court in the Hague
IJC - International Court of Justice in the Hague
MDA - Magen David Adom - Israel Ambulance Corp
PA - Palestinian Authority - President Mahmud Abbas, aka Abu Mazen
PMO- Prime Minister's Office
UAV - Unmanned Aerial vehicle, Drone. Could be used for surveillance and reconnaissance, or be weaponized with missiles or contain explosives for 'suicide' explosion mission
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