Lonny's War Update- October 219, 2023 - May 12, 2024

  

Day 219 that 132 of our hostages in Hamas captivity
**There is nothing more important than getting them home! NOTHING!**

“I’ve never met them,
But I miss them. 
I’ve never met them,
but I think of them every second. 
I’ve never met them,
but they are my family. 
BRING THEM HOME NOW!!!”


There is no victory until all of the hostages are home!
‎אין נצחון עד שכל החטופים בבית

Red Alerts - Missile, Rocket, Drone (UAV - unmanned aerial vehicles), and Terror Attacks

*1:10am- south-rockets Ashkelon- Barzilai Hospital in Ashkelon says three people were admitted to the medical center after being injured in a direct rocket strike in the southern city.

They are listed in good condition, the hospital says.The rocket, fired from Gaza, struck a home in the city.

*7:30am- north- hostile aircraft intrusion- Rosh Hanikra, Nahariya and Oort herb areas
*1:45pm- south- rockets Kerem Shalom - The IDF spokesman informed that the air defense fighters successfully intercepted two launches from the Rafah area. He also stated that no damage was caused and there were no casualties.
*2:10pm- south - rockets Ashkelon 
*3:00pm - North- An anti-tank missile was fired from Lebanon into the Margaliot area. No casualties or damage were reported.
*3:50pm- North - Rockets Yiftach
*4:00pm- south - rockets to Sderot, Sapir College, Kibbutzim Givim, Nir Am and Ibim

Hostage Updates 

  • British Foreign Secretary David Cameron says that a deal to secure the release of the hostages held in Gaza is “the right answer” to end the war between Israel and Hamas.

    “My view is that the right answer is to try and stop the fighting by having a hostage deal, achieving a pause in the fighting and then using that to build a sustainable ceasefire without going back to further conflict,” Cameron tells Sky News.

    “But the problem is it goes back to Hamas,” he says. “Hamas have been offered a deal which would release hundreds of prisoners from Israeli jails, that would provide a pause in the fighting… and they’re not taking that deal.”

    “The real pressure should be on Hamas to agree that hostage deal. The fighting could stop tomorrow,” he says.

    Cameron tells the UK outlet that he was pressed to declare an immediate arms embargo, and days later a “massive Iranian attack” was launched at Israel.

    “I don’t think it would have been a wise path, and I still don’t think it would be a wise path,” he says.

    “I mean, if I announced that today, it might help me get through this television interview, but actually it would strengthen Hamas,” he says. “It would weaken Israel. I think it probably makes a hostage deal less likely.”

    Cameron also says says that Israel must not launch a widespread offensive in the southern Gaza city Rafah without plans to safeguard the civilian population there.

  • Senior Hamas Official: The Main Reason for Halting Negotiations - Israel's Demand to Release Only Living Hostages:: The senior official said that Israel did not back down from this demand, and refused to explain why the terror organization cannot guarantee that the deal will not include hostages who are not alive. According to him, Hamas made a major concession on the issue of releasing Palestinian prisoners, and is reconsidering its negotiation strategy.  
    A senior Hamas source said yesterday that the central reason for halting the negotiations in Cairo for the release of the hostages is the Israeli "insistence" that 33 living male and female captives be released in the first stage. The source refused to explain why Hamas cannot meet this demand and guarantee Israel that the release will not include hostages who are not alive. 
    The source, currently in Qatar, also said that Hamas made a major concession from its perspective when it agreed to release 50 Palestinian prisoners instead of 500 in exchange for each captive. According to him, the Israeli delegation made clear in Cairo that not a few of the senior Hamas military wing commanders that Yahya Sinwar demanded to be released cannot be included in the deal. According to the senior Hamas official, Israel is maneuvering in the negotiations in order to achieve the release of most of the living hostages before a permanent ceasefire is declared. In this situation, Hamas is reconsidering its negotiation strategy. The source also said that under these circumstances, Hamas is prepared to continue fighting and has a pool of suicide bombers at its disposal. An American source quoted the day before yesterday on Al-Jazeera claimed that it was decided to temporarily halt the talks in Cairo due to the current situation in Rafah. In parallel, an Israeli source was quoted in the foreign media declaring: "We will proceed as planned with the operation in Rafah - and anywhere in the Strip."
    Meanwhile, this morning the IDF Arabic spokesman instructed residents of additional neighborhoods in Rafah to immediately evacuate to the humanitarian area in Al-Moasi west of Khan Yunis. The IDF distributed leaflets in the Shati and Rafah refugee camps and the Al-Janayna and Khurbat Al-Adas neighborhoods east of the city, calling on residents to leave their homes. This step came after some neighborhoods in the east of the city had already been evacuated earlier this week, and following cabinet approval to intensify the operation in Rafah.  link

Gaza Fighting 

  • US said offering Israel ‘sensitive intel’ on Hamas leaders’ whereabouts if no major Rafah op 
    As the Biden administration urgently works to prevent a large-scale Israeli offensive in Gaza’s Rafaha report in The Washington Post says the Biden administration “is offering Israel valuable assistance if it holds back, including sensitive intelligence to help the Israeli military pinpoint the location of Hamas leaders and find the group’s hidden tunnels.”    The report, which cites four people familiar with the US proposals, says the administration has also offered to help put up large tent encampments for Palestinians evacuated from Rafah, and to assist in building infrastructure to provide humanitarian aid.    
    US said offering Israel 'sensitive intel' on Hamas leaders' whereabouts if no major Rafah operation takes place.    Link

  • There is renewed fighting in northern Gaza’s Jabaliya, Palestinian media reports.

    Yesterday, the IDF said it was also preparing to launch a new operation in the area, after identifying attempts by Hamas to regroup there.

    An evacuation order was given for the Jabaliya area, where the IDF estimated between 100,000 and 150,000 Palestinians were.

    According to a Channel 13 news report, IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi cited the need for troops to return to Jabaliya when he tore into Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during security consultations over the weekend for failing to develop and declare a so-called “day after” strategy for who will rule Gaza after the war.

    “We are now operating once again in Jabaliya. As long as there’s no diplomatic process to develop a governing body in the Strip that isn’t Hamas, we’ll have to launch campaigns again and again in other places to dismantle Hamas’s infrastructure,” Halevi was quoted by Channel 13 as saying. “It will be a Sisyphean task.”   link  -- Netanyahu has refused to listen to his security heads throughout the war and is just another reason why the person who brought us to October 7 cannot be the person to bring us out. His arrogance and blindness to the situation is causing the army to continuously go back to all of the places they have left and it wipes out their successes. They are in a non stop 1 step forward, 2 steps back due to Netanyahu.

  • Ahead of Memorial Day for Israel's Fallen Soldiers and Victims of Hostilities, the IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Hertzi Halevi met with fighters from the Etach team of the Giv'ati Brigade, who lost their commander Lt. Harel Etach and two of their team members, Staff Sgt. Nir Rafael Kanaian and Staff Sgt. Behanu Kassia, in battles in Khan Yunis. Tonight, at the "Singing in Their Memory" ceremony on the Knesset plaza, a video of the full meeting between the Chief of Staff and the fighters - Staff Sgt. Mor Levi, Staff Sgt. Matan Misan, Staff Sgt. Nehorai Shamor and Staff Sgt. Nitai Hassan - will be screened.

  • Corporal Armias Macoriau, a fighter in Battalion 931 of the Nahal Brigade, is being laid to rest at this hour in the military cemetery in Beersheba. Cpl. Macoriau, 19 years old at the time of his passing, was killed by an explosive device in the Zaitun neighborhood of Gaza City in the central Strip.



  • Residents of Ramat HaSharon are escorting Corporal Itay Livni, a Nahal Brigade fighter who was killed by an explosive device in the Zaytouna neighborhood, on his final journey. Cpl. Livni, a resident of the city, was 19 years old at the time of his passing.

    This is the scene in every town where a soldier who was killed, lived. 
    This 'escort' of the soldier and his/her family has been our way to show caring and respect for the terrible price the families have paid in this war.



  • The Palestinian Communications Company in the Gaza Strip reported that Internet services were suspended in the southern part of the Gaza Strip, apparently due to IDF attacks.

  • Egypt's Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry said at a press conference that "we reject any Israeli military action in Rafah". At the press party, held in collaboration with Slovenia's foreign minister, Shukri said: "We must reach an immediate ceasefire in Gaza."

  • Forces from the 98th Division began an operation tonight in Jabaliya in northern Gaza Strip, following intelligence about the presence of militants and Hamas' terrorist infrastructure rehabilitation efforts in the area. This was stated by an IDF spokesperson, who updated that fighter jets struck about 30 terrorist targets in the area before the forces entered, and eliminated several militants. Simultaneously, forces from the 162nd Division are continuing focused activities in the east and at the Rafah crossing from the Gaza side, under intelligence guidance from the military intelligence directorate and Shin Bet. During the operation, the combat team of the Givati Brigade located and destroyed a number of tunnel shafts and rocket launchers that were ready to fire into Israel. Additionally, the combat team of the 401st Brigade identified ten armed Hamas militants exiting a terrorist infrastructure. Aircraft from the Air Force and the combat team attacked and eliminated the militants. Activity also continues in Zaytouna in northern Gaza, and over the past day, troops have eliminated several militants in face-to-face engagements, while Air Force aircraft have struck and eliminated additional militants and destroyed weaponry and terrorist infrastructure. 
    Moreover, aircraft and fighter jets from the Air Force struck and destroyed over 150 terrorist targets across the Gaza Strip, in coordination and under guidance of the ground forces. Among the targets hit were rocket launchers ready to fire, militant cells, weapons caches, as well as military buildings, observation posts, tunnel shafts and additional terrorist infrastructure.
  • The Gaza Health Ministry, run by Hamas, reported that 63 Palestinians were killed and 114 were injured in the Gaza Strip over the past day. The ministry further updated that the death toll in the war has risen to 35,034, and the number of injured has risen to 78,755 since October 7th.
Northern Israel 
  • Lebanon/Hizbollah. Explosive-laden drone launched from Lebanon apparently strikes beach near RoshHanikraAn explosion was seen on northern Israel’s coast near the community of Rosh Hanikra,
     after sirens warned of an incoming drone launched from Lebanon.
    There are no reports of injuries after what appears to be an explosive-laden drone struck the beach. The IDF attempted but apparently failed to intercept the drone.

  • Maj. Gen. (res.) Gershon HaCohen, who served among other roles as the Northern Command chief, said in an interview with Ynet that "it may be possible to avoid a third Lebanon war, but that means postponing the war - Hezbollah is an enemy that is only growing stronger." According to him, "we see this in the last two weeks with the UAVs, Hezbollah is learning everything from Iran, they are receiving weapons from Iran. The IDF must prepare for a comprehensive and decisive war."

    Regarding the report that the U.S. has intelligence on the locations of Hamas leaders, he said: "I don't know what they know and I don't know if there was an offer to hand over this information, but it seems absurd to me because it goes against U.S. interests. They want to end the war, so why wouldn't they give the information? If it's true, it's extortion. But I don't know if it's real."

  • Hezbollah's Military Command Changes Its Strategy in Fighting Israel
    The Beirut newspaper "Al-Diyar" reports, citing sources within the organization, that after a series of in-depth discussions, a change in the patterns of operation was agreed upon in light of the significant losses suffered by Hezbollah and the other organizations operating alongside it. 
    According to the newspaper's military analyst, Michel Nasr, Hezbollah's leadership concluded that it must strive to reduce casualties on the Lebanese side, and therefore the following steps are being taken:

    - Hezbollah has withdrawn its forces from around the border line with Israel, and is now only operating small 3-4 fighter cells near the line for reconnaissance and target identification purposes.

    - Instead of relying primarily on firing anti-tank missiles as Hezbollah has done for many months, priority is now being given to using UAVs fired from concealed positions near the border, in a way that makes it difficult for the IDF's air defense system and fighter jets to hit them. In parallel, increasing the use of short and medium-range rockets fired in a "fire and forget" method. Hezbollah concluded that Kornet missile teams are too exposed to immediate Israeli retaliatory fire.  

    - According to this report, Hezbollah has decided to refrain, for now, from attempts to hit Israeli aircraft flying at low altitudes over Lebanese skies so as not to change the "rules of the game."

    - It is further claimed that Hezbollah is seeking to infiltrate teams across the border in order to improve intelligence gathering and assist in target selection.  

    - The Lebanese analyst notes that there is a dispute over changing the patterns of operation as he describes them between Hezbollah's veteran commanders and younger commanders, but he does not elaborate on the nature of this dispute.  link

West Bank

  • Suspected ‘price tag’ (retribution) arson attack on home in West Bank town Duma. A house was set on fire in an apparent anti-Palestinian arson attack in the West Bank town of Duma near Ramallah overnight, the Kan public broadcaster reports.
    The words “Regards from Benjamin” were sprayed on the house, the outlet says. The graffiti is apparently a reference to 14-year-old Benjamin Achimeir, who was found dead on April 13, a day after setting out from an illegal West Bank outpost to herd sheep.
    A resident of Duma, Ahmed Dawabsha, 21, is suspected of involvement in the teen’s killing in what authorities described as a terror attack.
    Arrests of perpetrators in such so-called “price tag attacks” by extremists are exceedingly rare and rights groups lament that convictions are even more unusual, with the majority of charges in such cases being dropped.
    A security source tells the outlet that “such actions dramatically harm the security and stability of the area.”  —this is the same Palestinian village that had an arson attack by another settler in 2015. The settler terrorist burned alive a mother, father and their 18 month old baby. Their 4 year old son was burned over most of his body but after multiple surgeries spanning a few years, he survived and is being raised by his grandparents. The settler terrorist is serving a life sentence and quite of few right wing Knesset members including the criminal minister of internal security, Ben Gvir have been trying to get him released from prison and to be given a hero’s welcome. 
    link

  • A Palestinian gunman was reportedly killed by Israeli troops during a raid in the West Bank’s Balata camp, near Nablus overnight. He is named by Palestinian media as Samer Rummaneh, a member of the Lion’s Den terror group.

Politics and the Region

  • International Communities Organisation (ICO) (My brother Gershon is the Mid East Director of ICO) - This is a fascinating discussion and highly recommended to watch - link below
    Present the recording of the webinar from May 11, 2024
    Former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert
    Former Palestinian Foreign Minister Nasser el Qudwa NY Times Columnist Thomas Friedman
    Fatah Activist Samer Sinjilawi – Moderator
    ICO Founder and President James Holmes – Host
    7 Months on, How Would a Breakthrough look? Ehud Olmert, Dr Nasser Alkidwa & Thomas Friedman
    - Youtube Link

  • US Central Command (CENTCOM) says it has destroyed three drones launched from a Houthi controlled area of Yemen into the Red Sea.
    “It was determined that these UAS [uncrewed aerial systems] presented an imminent threat to both coalition forces and merchant vessels in the region,” CENTCOM says in a statement.
    “These actions are taken to protect freedom of navigation and make international waters safer and more secure for US, coalition, and merchant vessels.”
    CENTCOM also reports that a drone was launched from a Houthi controlled area of Yemen into the Gulf of Aden yesterday, with no injuries or damage reported by American, coalition, or commercial ship.

  • Cabinet Secretary Yossi Fuchs believes it will take 10 years to reach the goals detailed in a draft plan aimed at regulating the enlistment of ultra-Orthodox men that the government is expected to present to the High Court this week, according to a Hebrew media report.
    The Israel Hayom newspaper cites Fuchs as telling cabinet ministers over the past few days that the outline in discussions would allow for around 6,000-7,000 Haredi recruits per year.
    Ultra-Orthodox men of military age have been able to avoid being conscripted to the Israel Defense Forces for decades by enrolling in yeshivas for Torah study and obtaining repeated one-year service deferrals until they reach the age of military exemption.
    But the law allowing for blanket military service exemptions expired in June 2023, and a subsequent government resolution instructing the IDF not to enforce conscription on such men despite the expiry lapsed in April.

  • Israel Hayom reports that the government will likely approve the legislation on Wednesday before presenting it to the court on Thursday.   Link  - this proposal is ridiculous and goes against everything that most of the population has been saying. All 18 year olds should do a mandatory civil service of 2-3 years. Personally, I would like that civil service to be a list of various options which, of course includes the IDF at the top of the list. It should also have service in the following: ambulance and paramedics; hospitals, emergency services, community centers (mostly in the periphery), youth organizations and more. In addition, if they choose to study torah after their civil service, why should they get stipends (that amounts to as much and more than young people's salary who complete their army service)? Both my daughters and my wife served their full service time (wife and daughter even more as they were officers) but they received no stipend when they went to university after the army. Either all students should have their tuition paid and given a stipend, or none of them. That's equality.

  • Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan claimed to the Greek media that "Hamas agreed to a ceasefire, but Israel wants to conquer Gaza." According to him, which of course was not backed by evidence, "Hamas militants are defending their homes and lands under Israeli control. They want to re-establish their independent state, with its capital in East Jerusalem." About Netanyahu, the president said: "He has left Hitler behind. Israel continues to brazenly violate UN resolutions."

  • Former U.S. Army Commander: "Israel has every right to defend itself, we too have massacred innocents"
    Mark Milley, the former U.S. Army commander, commented last week on Israel's war against Hamas in Gaza and emphasized that in his view "it has every right in the world to defend itself." Milley attacked those criticizing Israel over the large number of uninvolved casualties in Gaza, and stressed that the U.S. Army itself is responsible for killing many innocents in its major wars over the years. "War is a terrible thing," he said, and called for acting quickly to finish it and achieve a political goal.
    "Before we all get angry at what Israel is doing," Milley said, "we need to remember that we, the U.S., killed innocents in Mosul and Raqqa (as part of the war against ISIS in Iraq and Syria), killed 12,000 French civilians in Normandy, destroyed 69 Japanese cities, not including Hiroshima and Nagasaki." Milley made the remarks on a panel at the Artificial Intelligence for National Competition Conference (SCSPAIExpo2024) held on Tuesday and Wednesday in Washington, D.C.
    "We massacred people in huge numbers," he continued. "Innocents who had nothing to do with their governments. Men, women and children - war is a terrible thing. But, if it's going to mean something, there has to be a political goal - and it has to be achieved quickly and at minimal cost."
    Milley went on to address the heavy tragedy that struck Israel on October 7. "Israel has the right to defend itself, they are the ones who were brutally attacked on October 7. 1,200 people were massacred, not just killed - they were massacred, slaughtered, beheaded, women were raped in front of their husbands," he said.
    "If you do the math and compare it to the U.S. - that's 50-100 thousand people killed, in one morning, can you imagine?"
    "So seriously, Israel has every right to defend itself, war is a terrible thing. I have many years of combat experience, it's a terrible, brutal and cruel thing. The character of war is in densely populated urban areas, and the execution of war necessarily entails collateral damage, but if there is morality in it - you have to go in, quickly achieve what you need, and get out."
    Milley's comments were made a day before U.S. President Joe Biden said in an interview with CNN that the U.S. would halt offensive weapons shipments to Israel if it launched a major operation in Rafah. At the same time, there were already reports of the U.S. halting weapons to Israel when he made those remarks.
    General Mark Milley served as Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff in the U.S. Army from October 2019 until September 30, 2023. He left his position exactly one week before the October 7 massacre, and was replaced by General Charles Q. Brown. Milley is also remembered for the positions he took against former President Trump's efforts to remain in power, despite losing the 2020 election.  link   - General Milley's statements are correct and on point, if one wants to compare the amount of civilian casualties in war. But that's not really the point. Civilian casualties need to be avoided as much as is possible, sometimes even at the risks of troop casualties, not just in this war but in any war. Can we honestly say that we did avoided civilian casualties as much as we could during the massive aerial bombings, especially at the beginning of the war? Anyone who says yes is either naive or fooling themselves. The massive bombings had multiple purposes: to show our dangerous neighborhood what we were capable of doing, especially Nasrallah of Hizbollah and we specifically warned him by saying that if he starts an all out war, this is what will happen to Beirut; to clear booby traps, ambushes and other dangerous situations for our ground troops who were about to enter; and we cannot ignore that much of the damage was actually done as punishment for October 7. In all 3 of these situations, the bombings were the same and we killed thousands and thousands of non combatants. So many people say that we are the most moral army in the world. I hate that statement. It is bullshit. Do we teach our soldiers not to obey immoral and illegal orders? yes, but i would have to believe that most armies (at least in the West) do that. An army is for 2 things: to defend and to attack. Bottom line, our army kills and maims just like every army in the world. As far as morality, I have encountered my share of moral soldiers and officers and also my share of those who are quite immoral. What makes us the most moral army in the world? just words...


Acronyms and Glossary

UAV - Unmanned Aerial vehicle, Drone. Could be used for surveillance and reconnaissance, or be weaponized with missiles or contain explosives for 'suicide' explosion mission

PA - Palestinian Authority - President Mahmud Abbas, aka Abu Mazen
 

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