π️Lonny's War Update- October 228, 2023 - May 21, 2024π️
π️Day 228 that 128 of our hostages in Hamas captivity
**There is nothing more important than getting them home! NOTHING!**
“I’ve never met them,But I miss them. I’ve never met them,but I think of them every second. I’ve never met them,but they are my family. BRING THEM HOME NOW!!!”
There is no victory until all of the hostages are home!ΧΧΧ Χ Χ¦ΧΧΧ Χ’Χ Χ©ΧΧ ΧΧΧΧΧ€ΧΧ ΧΧΧΧͺ
Red Alerts - Missile, Rocket, Drone (UAV - unmanned aerial vehicles), and Terror Attacks and Death Announcements
*2:30am- north - rockets- Natua, Shomera, Shtula*9:25am - north - hostile aircraft intrusion western Galilee, Hanita, Admit, Goren, Yaara, Gordot HaGalil
*
Hostage Updates
Today is David Kunio's 34 birthday which he cannot celebrate. The brothers David and Ariel Kunio were kidnapped on Black Saturday from Kibbutz Nir Oz. David's wife, Sharon and twin 3 year old daughters, Ema and Yuli were kidnapped together with him, but they were released after 52 days in captivity as part of the prisoner exchange deal while he remained there. Silvia, their mother, addressed the release of the girls in an interview, expressed concern about her sons' health condition - and sent them a message: "If you can hear me, know that your brothers are alive."
Senior official who resigned from the National Security Council warns the political echelon: "The issue of the hostages will become a multi-year matter"
Dr. Yoram Hemo, until recently Einav Halevi's deputy, submitted a 10-page critical document on the conduct of the war, causing a major stir among the political leadership. He accused: Continuing the war with the existing approach is futile, not establishing an alternative governing authority will lead to military rule - and warned of losing bargaining chips that have yet to be utilized regarding the hostages .
Dr. Yoram Hamo, who resigned about two weeks ago from his position as the official responsible for security policy and strategic planning at the National Security Council, presented a 10-page strategic document to senior decision-makers with harsh criticism of the conduct of the war. Key points from the document, : "The basic approach to managing the war has largely reached its end, not establishing an alternative governing authority will lead to military rule, concern over the captives' issue becoming a multi-year matter." The NSC head Halevi dismissed it: "He represents only himself."
In the document, Dr. Hemo laid out his doctrine regarding the continuation of the war, achieving its goals, and the impact on other arenas. Regarding the conduct of the war, he said: "In our view, under the changed conditions, the basic approach by which the war is being managed can no longer allow the fulfillment of the war's objectives. Continuing the war with the existing approach will not help and could lead to further erosion of strategic achievements."
Regarding the goal of toppling Hamas, Dr. Hemo also presented a not particularly optimistic forecast: "A strategic achievement in Gaza (removing Hamas) remains highly important for shaping the immediate environment, but the path to achieving it is very long with the current approach and it is doubtful whether it will be achieved at all. The alternative achievements in Gaza are significant but have exhausted their positive impact."
The senior NSC official warned against strategic stagnation, "It is possible to continue with the existing approach or with an operation in Rafah, but at its conclusion we will return to the same problems, and perhaps more acute ones," and warned against maintaining military rule in Gaza: "Not establishing an alternative governing authority in the short term makes it difficult to cope with Hamas' attempt to remain in power. Under these conditions, this could require deeper Israeli control in Gaza, up to military rule. The challenge of responsibility for long-term military rule could bring Hamas back to power."
Perhaps the most serious warning was regarding the supreme goal of the war - the return of the captives. "We are in a process of losing bargaining chips that have not yet been utilized," Dr. Hemo noted. "The bargaining chip of halting the war is particularly valuable at the moment, but after an operation in Rafah it could lose most of its value. Without a quick solution and especially if the intense moves in Gaza end, there is a concern that the issue of the hostages will become a multi-year matter, with all that implies for national resilience, Israel's freedom of action, and failure to achieve the war's goals."
After submitting the document, Dr. Hemo presented the ministers with a detailed presentation summarizing the document. At one point in the discussion, National Security Council head Tzachi Hanegbi said: "The presentation is not my opinion, and it represents only his view - despite his position as Deputy NSC Head."
It is clear to everyone that this is almost an indictment against the government and the way the war is being conducted, so it is not surprising that he has decided not to continue being part of the advisory bodies to the decision-makers.
**In response, the National Security Council stated:** Yoram Hemo requested to end his term at the NSC for personal reasons many months ago. His departure from the NSC has no connection to the professional positions he expressed, with the approval of the NSC Head, before members of the War Management Cabinet. link - Tzahi Hanegbi is the head of the NSC but that is a political appointment, which means that he has far less qualifications for the nature of the council than the professionals who have been engaged in research and analysis of security matters for many years. Hanegbi's statement that the report doesn't represent him is no surprise and he serves as a mouthpiece for Netanyahu. Although I don't have any direct knowledge, I think it is naive for us to believe that Yoram Hemo's resignation has nothing to do with the report. His report jives with the statements of Galant and Gantz of last week regarding the next steps in the war, specifically regarding the hostages and the governing of the Strip now and at war's end, but Netanyahu and his yes men have all panned the statements and will, of course attempt to denigrate this report as well.
Qatar’s foreign ministry spokesperson Majed Al-Ansari says the Gaza ceasefire and hostage release talks between Israel and Hamas remain “close to a stalemate.” Asked about the International Criminal Court prosecutor’s decision to seek arrest warrants against some Israeli and Hamas leaders, Al-Ansari says it is too early for Qatar to comment directly on that but that all states and organizations should be “held responsible for the killing of civilians.” link
Hostage Updates
Today is David Kunio's 34 birthday which he cannot celebrate. The brothers David and Ariel Kunio were kidnapped on Black Saturday from Kibbutz Nir Oz. David's wife, Sharon and twin 3 year old daughters, Ema and Yuli were kidnapped together with him, but they were released after 52 days in captivity as part of the prisoner exchange deal while he remained there. Silvia, their mother, addressed the release of the girls in an interview, expressed concern about her sons' health condition - and sent them a message: "If you can hear me, know that your brothers are alive."
Senior official who resigned from the National Security Council warns the political echelon: "The issue of the hostages will become a multi-year matter"
Dr. Yoram Hemo, until recently Einav Halevi's deputy, submitted a 10-page critical document on the conduct of the war, causing a major stir among the political leadership. He accused: Continuing the war with the existing approach is futile, not establishing an alternative governing authority will lead to military rule - and warned of losing bargaining chips that have yet to be utilized regarding the hostages .
Dr. Yoram Hamo, who resigned about two weeks ago from his position as the official responsible for security policy and strategic planning at the National Security Council, presented a 10-page strategic document to senior decision-makers with harsh criticism of the conduct of the war. Key points from the document, : "The basic approach to managing the war has largely reached its end, not establishing an alternative governing authority will lead to military rule, concern over the captives' issue becoming a multi-year matter." The NSC head Halevi dismissed it: "He represents only himself."
In the document, Dr. Hemo laid out his doctrine regarding the continuation of the war, achieving its goals, and the impact on other arenas. Regarding the conduct of the war, he said: "In our view, under the changed conditions, the basic approach by which the war is being managed can no longer allow the fulfillment of the war's objectives. Continuing the war with the existing approach will not help and could lead to further erosion of strategic achievements."
Regarding the goal of toppling Hamas, Dr. Hemo also presented a not particularly optimistic forecast: "A strategic achievement in Gaza (removing Hamas) remains highly important for shaping the immediate environment, but the path to achieving it is very long with the current approach and it is doubtful whether it will be achieved at all. The alternative achievements in Gaza are significant but have exhausted their positive impact."
The senior NSC official warned against strategic stagnation, "It is possible to continue with the existing approach or with an operation in Rafah, but at its conclusion we will return to the same problems, and perhaps more acute ones," and warned against maintaining military rule in Gaza: "Not establishing an alternative governing authority in the short term makes it difficult to cope with Hamas' attempt to remain in power. Under these conditions, this could require deeper Israeli control in Gaza, up to military rule. The challenge of responsibility for long-term military rule could bring Hamas back to power."
Perhaps the most serious warning was regarding the supreme goal of the war - the return of the captives. "We are in a process of losing bargaining chips that have not yet been utilized," Dr. Hemo noted. "The bargaining chip of halting the war is particularly valuable at the moment, but after an operation in Rafah it could lose most of its value. Without a quick solution and especially if the intense moves in Gaza end, there is a concern that the issue of the hostages will become a multi-year matter, with all that implies for national resilience, Israel's freedom of action, and failure to achieve the war's goals."
After submitting the document, Dr. Hemo presented the ministers with a detailed presentation summarizing the document. At one point in the discussion, National Security Council head Tzachi Hanegbi said: "The presentation is not my opinion, and it represents only his view - despite his position as Deputy NSC Head."
It is clear to everyone that this is almost an indictment against the government and the way the war is being conducted, so it is not surprising that he has decided not to continue being part of the advisory bodies to the decision-makers.
**In response, the National Security Council stated:** Yoram Hemo requested to end his term at the NSC for personal reasons many months ago. His departure from the NSC has no connection to the professional positions he expressed, with the approval of the NSC Head, before members of the War Management Cabinet. link - Tzahi Hanegbi is the head of the NSC but that is a political appointment, which means that he has far less qualifications for the nature of the council than the professionals who have been engaged in research and analysis of security matters for many years. Hanegbi's statement that the report doesn't represent him is no surprise and he serves as a mouthpiece for Netanyahu. Although I don't have any direct knowledge, I think it is naive for us to believe that Yoram Hemo's resignation has nothing to do with the report. His report jives with the statements of Galant and Gantz of last week regarding the next steps in the war, specifically regarding the hostages and the governing of the Strip now and at war's end, but Netanyahu and his yes men have all panned the statements and will, of course attempt to denigrate this report as well.
Qatar’s foreign ministry spokesperson Majed Al-Ansari says the Gaza ceasefire and hostage release talks between Israel and Hamas remain “close to a stalemate.” Asked about the International Criminal Court prosecutor’s decision to seek arrest warrants against some Israeli and Hamas leaders, Al-Ansari says it is too early for Qatar to comment directly on that but that all states and organizations should be “held responsible for the killing of civilians.” link
Gaza
- Israel went public on May 17 with the discovery of 50 smuggling tunnels leading from the southern Gazan city of Rafah to Egypt. Defending Israel against South African-filed genocide allegations at the International Court of Justice, attorney Gilad Noam devoted part of his remarks to the ongoing military operation in Rafah, a focus of international pro-Palestinian advocacy.
In addition to hosting four Hamas battalions and their reinforcements from elsewhere in the Gaza Strip, Rafah is the site of “an intricate underground tunnel infrastructure that runs underneath the city and provides ample space for operatives, command and control rooms, and military equipment,” Noam said.
“Nearly 700 tunnel shafts have been identified in Rafah, from which approximately 50 tunnels cross into Egypt. These tunnels are used by Hamas to supply itself with weapons and ammunition, and could potentially be used to smuggle out of Gaza hostages or Hamas senior operatives.”
In an overnight phone call with U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant briefed his counterpart on the Rafah operation, which, Gallant’s office said, has so far entailed “the destruction of several terror tunnels, as well as efforts to locate hostages.” The statement did not mention neighboring Egypt. Link - Egypt has destroyed more than 2,000 Gaza tunnels, secret files reveal: Exclusive: Military documents reveal scale of Egyptian operations in border city of Rafah – and plans for a canal along the border
Secret military documents obtained by Middle East Eye reveal the scale of Egyptian operations to destroy tunnels between the Sinai peninsula and Gaza built to circumvent the Israel-imposed blockade of the enclave.
According to the documents that MEE is publishing in full, more than 2,000 tunnels were destroyed by military engineers in the border city of Rafah between 2011 and 2015.
They also reveal that senior members of the armed forces ordered a feasibility study into a proposal to dig a canal along the entire border with Gaza as an alternative to destroying the tunnels.
The documents, leaked by an army insider, offer a rare insight into the military’s extensive operations in the North Sinai governorate.
The government of President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi is highly secretive about its activities in Rafah and has imposed a media blackout in the region since 2013 where it has waged a brutal and destructive operation against local militants aligned with the Islamic State (IS) group.
It has never released official details about the destruction of tunnels.
According to the documents, all the tunnels destroyed during the period they covered were designated as commercial or transport tunnels.
The revelations come to light following the closure of the Rafah crossing in southern Gaza after an Israeli operation on 7 May and raise questions about Israeli criticism of Egypt's alleged failure to eliminate smuggling tunnels used by Palestinian armed groups.
Israeli officials have said weapons used in Hamas’s attack in southern Israel on 7 October were smuggled into Gaza via tunnels from Egypt. link
Israeli observers differ on Egypt’s role regarding the estimated 50 tunnels linking Gaza to Sinai, but agree the situation must be managed cautiously.
An estimated 50 cross-border tunnels link Gaza to Egypt’s Sinai, enabling Hamas to smuggle weapons, funds and personnel, and black-market traders to import a range of goods to the Strip.
Yoni Ben Menachem, a senior researcher at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, said that since the Israel Defense Forces has not yet captured all of Rafah and the Philadelphi Corridor, aka the Philadelphi Route or the Saladin Axis (the narrow strip of land along the 8.7-mile border between the Gaza Strip and Egypt), the estimate for the number of tunnels could easily rise. According to Ben Menachem, the tunnels serve purposes beyond smuggling weapons. These include the transportation of “prohibited goods such as luxury goods, cigarettes and pornographic materials, which are then sold on the black market in Gaza at high prices,” he noted, highlighting the financial aspect of the smuggling operations. He also said there was likely high-level corruption at the Rafah crossing, where bribes are paid to Egyptian security officials to facilitate smuggling.
“According to Palestinian reports, bribery of senior officials at the Rafah crossing and Egyptian military officers on the Philadelphi Route enabled the transport of goods and weapons,” he said, underscoring the extensive network supporting smuggling activities, which he said has been occurring both over and underground.
As such, Ben Menachem said, the tunnels are part of a larger industry that includes the transfer of residents of Gaza into Egypt and beyond.
Ben Menachem referred to reports that claim Mahmoud el-Sisi, the son of Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, is heavily involved in these operations.
“According to Palestinian claims, Mahmoud el-Sisi, the powerful figure in Egyptian intelligence, is behind a front company named Hala, which organizes the passage of Gaza residents into Egypt,” he said. Gazan families pay thousands of dollars to leave Gaza, he added.
“I believe we are at this stage of still fighting in a limited area of Rafah, and have yet to conduct the large operation there. Israel is preparing to stay in Rafah, and wishes to destroy these tunnels. Israel cannot at this stage risk a direct diplomatic clash with Egypt over this, so the Americans will, I believe, deal with this on Israel’s behalf,” Ben Menachem assessed, referring to smoothing over security ties.
“The Egyptian army will have an financial problem, because they are being disconnected from the smuggling, an important income source,” he added.
Col. (res.) Dr. Shaul Shay, a senior research fellow at the International Policy Institute for Counter-Terrorism at Reichman University in Herzliya, served as deputy head of the National Security Council of Israel between 2007 and 2009.
He told JNS that the Gaza-Sinai tunnels have been a longstanding issue, particularly active during the rule of former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and the brief presidency of Muslim Brotherhood figure Mohamed Morsi. “It is likely that many tunnels were operational during Mubarak’s era and certainly during Morsi’s short rule,” Shay explained.
Since the elder el-Sisi came to power as deputy prime minister in 2013 and then as president in 2014, Egypt has made significant efforts to combat terrorism and reduce the number of tunnels. Shay said, “El-Sisi’s government has been resolute in its fight against Islamist terrorist groups, including the Islamic State in Sinai and the Muslim Brotherhood, and part of these efforts included tackling the tunnel networks.”
Despite these efforts, “achieving 100% success is improbable,” Shay added.
He highlighted the strategic importance of maintaining good relations between Israel and Egypt, particularly in the context of the ongoing conflict against Hamas and humanitarian efforts.
“There is a clear strategic interest for both Israel and Egypt to maintain good relations, as evidenced by the cooperation on humanitarian activities through the Rafah crossing and Egyptian mediation regarding hostages,” Shay said.
The tunnels, he added, represent a concern for both countries, necessitating cooperative efforts.
“The IDF must decide on its next steps carefully to avoid jeopardizing relations with Egypt,” Shay cautioned, emphasizing the necessity for joint efforts to curtail the smuggling and promote regional stability.
In addition to hosting four Hamas battalions and their reinforcements from elsewhere in the Gaza Strip, Rafah is the site of “an intricate underground tunnel infrastructure that runs underneath the city and provides ample space for operatives, command and control rooms, and military equipment,” Noam said.
“Nearly 700 tunnel shafts have been identified in Rafah, from which approximately 50 tunnels cross into Egypt. These tunnels are used by Hamas to supply itself with weapons and ammunition, and could potentially be used to smuggle out of Gaza hostages or Hamas senior operatives.”
In an overnight phone call with U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant briefed his counterpart on the Rafah operation, which, Gallant’s office said, has so far entailed “the destruction of several terror tunnels, as well as efforts to locate hostages.” The statement did not mention neighboring Egypt. Link
Secret military documents obtained by Middle East Eye reveal the scale of Egyptian operations to destroy tunnels between the Sinai peninsula and Gaza built to circumvent the Israel-imposed blockade of the enclave.
According to the documents that MEE is publishing in full, more than 2,000 tunnels were destroyed by military engineers in the border city of Rafah between 2011 and 2015.
They also reveal that senior members of the armed forces ordered a feasibility study into a proposal to dig a canal along the entire border with Gaza as an alternative to destroying the tunnels.
The documents, leaked by an army insider, offer a rare insight into the military’s extensive operations in the North Sinai governorate.
The government of President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi is highly secretive about its activities in Rafah and has imposed a media blackout in the region since 2013 where it has waged a brutal and destructive operation against local militants aligned with the Islamic State (IS) group.
According to the documents, all the tunnels destroyed during the period they covered were designated as commercial or transport tunnels.
The revelations come to light following the closure of the Rafah crossing in southern Gaza after an Israeli operation on 7 May and raise questions about Israeli criticism of Egypt's alleged failure to eliminate smuggling tunnels used by Palestinian armed groups.
Israeli officials have said weapons used in Hamas’s attack in southern Israel on 7 October were smuggled into Gaza via tunnels from Egypt. link
Israeli observers differ on Egypt’s role regarding the estimated 50 tunnels linking Gaza to Sinai, but agree the situation must be managed cautiously.
An estimated 50 cross-border tunnels link Gaza to Egypt’s Sinai, enabling Hamas to smuggle weapons, funds and personnel, and black-market traders to import a range of goods to the Strip.
Yoni Ben Menachem, a senior researcher at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, said that since the Israel Defense Forces has not yet captured all of Rafah and the Philadelphi Corridor, aka the Philadelphi Route or the Saladin Axis (the narrow strip of land along the 8.7-mile border between the Gaza Strip and Egypt), the estimate for the number of tunnels could easily rise. According to Ben Menachem, the tunnels serve purposes beyond smuggling weapons. These include the transportation of “prohibited goods such as luxury goods, cigarettes and pornographic materials, which are then sold on the black market in Gaza at high prices,” he noted, highlighting the financial aspect of the smuggling operations. He also said there was likely high-level corruption at the Rafah crossing, where bribes are paid to Egyptian security officials to facilitate smuggling.
“According to Palestinian reports, bribery of senior officials at the Rafah crossing and Egyptian military officers on the Philadelphi Route enabled the transport of goods and weapons,” he said, underscoring the extensive network supporting smuggling activities, which he said has been occurring both over and underground.
As such, Ben Menachem said, the tunnels are part of a larger industry that includes the transfer of residents of Gaza into Egypt and beyond.
Ben Menachem referred to reports that claim Mahmoud el-Sisi, the son of Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, is heavily involved in these operations.
“According to Palestinian claims, Mahmoud el-Sisi, the powerful figure in Egyptian intelligence, is behind a front company named Hala, which organizes the passage of Gaza residents into Egypt,” he said. Gazan families pay thousands of dollars to leave Gaza, he added.
“I believe we are at this stage of still fighting in a limited area of Rafah, and have yet to conduct the large operation there. Israel is preparing to stay in Rafah, and wishes to destroy these tunnels. Israel cannot at this stage risk a direct diplomatic clash with Egypt over this, so the Americans will, I believe, deal with this on Israel’s behalf,” Ben Menachem assessed, referring to smoothing over security ties.
“The Egyptian army will have an financial problem, because they are being disconnected from the smuggling, an important income source,” he added.
Col. (res.) Dr. Shaul Shay, a senior research fellow at the International Policy Institute for Counter-Terrorism at Reichman University in Herzliya, served as deputy head of the National Security Council of Israel between 2007 and 2009.
He told JNS that the Gaza-Sinai tunnels have been a longstanding issue, particularly active during the rule of former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and the brief presidency of Muslim Brotherhood figure Mohamed Morsi. “It is likely that many tunnels were operational during Mubarak’s era and certainly during Morsi’s short rule,” Shay explained.
Since the elder el-Sisi came to power as deputy prime minister in 2013 and then as president in 2014, Egypt has made significant efforts to combat terrorism and reduce the number of tunnels. Shay said, “El-Sisi’s government has been resolute in its fight against Islamist terrorist groups, including the Islamic State in Sinai and the Muslim Brotherhood, and part of these efforts included tackling the tunnel networks.”
Despite these efforts, “achieving 100% success is improbable,” Shay added.
He highlighted the strategic importance of maintaining good relations between Israel and Egypt, particularly in the context of the ongoing conflict against Hamas and humanitarian efforts.
“There is a clear strategic interest for both Israel and Egypt to maintain good relations, as evidenced by the cooperation on humanitarian activities through the Rafah crossing and Egyptian mediation regarding hostages,” Shay said.
The tunnels, he added, represent a concern for both countries, necessitating cooperative efforts.
“The IDF must decide on its next steps carefully to avoid jeopardizing relations with Egypt,” Shay cautioned, emphasizing the necessity for joint efforts to curtail the smuggling and promote regional stability.
Northern Israel - Lebanon/Hizbollah
Small, slow - but deadly: this is how Hezbollah turned the UAVs into the main threat that challenges the IDF
Hezbollah has increased the use of armed and "suicide" drones - with which it attacks IDF forces and sensitive sites • However, the Air Force still has difficulty intercepting them - they move at a slow speed, evade the radars and know the weak points of the defense system • " Hezbollah is taking advantage of the current campaign to learn the capabilities of the IDF, they are preparing for a real war," said the director of the Alma Institute. In recent times, it has become apparent that Hezbollah's use of drones has increased, along with their lethality. The terrorist organization struck the "Tal Shmaya" observation balloon near the Golani Junction and for the first time released footage showing its use of an armed drone carrying an S5 rocket that it fired near Metula.
The sequence of events - and what lies behind Hezbollah's modus operandi.
On Sunday, Hezbollah released footage of the Israeli Air Force's "Tal Shmaya" observation balloon near the Golani Junction, after it was struck on Wednesday by a drone launched by the terrorist organization. The system, installed in 2021, is one of the largest of its kind in the world and was intended to be used for detecting and warning about advanced threats. The release of the footage signals an escalation in Hezbollah's drone capabilities and willingness to showcase these attacks publicly. A few key points:
- Hezbollah has intensified its use of drones, including armed/offensive drones, against Israeli targets.
- It struck and released video of hitting the "Tal Shmaya" balloon system near the Golan, which is used for advanced threat detection.
- This was the first time Hezbollah showed use of an S5 rocket-armed drone, which it fired near Metula.
- The incidents demonstrate Hezbollah's growing drone lethality and evolving tactics against Israeli defenses.
- Releasing such footage publicly is likely meant to send a message and claim these attacks as achievements. In summary, Hezbollah appears to be deliberately escalating its drone operations, displaying more lethal armed drones and willingness to strike at sensitive Israeli security systems as part of an intensifying unmanned campaign. link
- Fighter jets intercepted a drone that was making its way into Israeli territory from Syrian territory. This was reported by an IDF spokesperson, who emphasized that the drone did not cross into Israel's airspace. It was further reported that in cooperation between the Navy and Air Force, a "Saar 4.5" missile ship and fighter jets recently intercepted two drones near Eilat that were on their way to Israeli territory. The IDF added that the drones did not cross into Israeli airspace and no alerts were activated, in accordance with policy. link
Small, slow - but deadly: this is how Hezbollah turned the UAVs into the main threat that challenges the IDF
Hezbollah has increased the use of armed and "suicide" drones - with which it attacks IDF forces and sensitive sites • However, the Air Force still has difficulty intercepting them - they move at a slow speed, evade the radars and know the weak points of the defense system • " Hezbollah is taking advantage of the current campaign to learn the capabilities of the IDF, they are preparing for a real war," said the director of the Alma Institute. In recent times, it has become apparent that Hezbollah's use of drones has increased, along with their lethality. The terrorist organization struck the "Tal Shmaya" observation balloon near the Golani Junction and for the first time released footage showing its use of an armed drone carrying an S5 rocket that it fired near Metula.
The sequence of events - and what lies behind Hezbollah's modus operandi.
On Sunday, Hezbollah released footage of the Israeli Air Force's "Tal Shmaya" observation balloon near the Golani Junction, after it was struck on Wednesday by a drone launched by the terrorist organization. The system, installed in 2021, is one of the largest of its kind in the world and was intended to be used for detecting and warning about advanced threats. The release of the footage signals an escalation in Hezbollah's drone capabilities and willingness to showcase these attacks publicly. A few key points:
- Hezbollah has intensified its use of drones, including armed/offensive drones, against Israeli targets.
- It struck and released video of hitting the "Tal Shmaya" balloon system near the Golan, which is used for advanced threat detection.
- This was the first time Hezbollah showed use of an S5 rocket-armed drone, which it fired near Metula.
- The incidents demonstrate Hezbollah's growing drone lethality and evolving tactics against Israeli defenses.
- Releasing such footage publicly is likely meant to send a message and claim these attacks as achievements. In summary, Hezbollah appears to be deliberately escalating its drone operations, displaying more lethal armed drones and willingness to strike at sensitive Israeli security systems as part of an intensifying unmanned campaign. link- Fighter jets intercepted a drone that was making its way into Israeli territory from Syrian territory. This was reported by an IDF spokesperson, who emphasized that the drone did not cross into Israel's airspace. It was further reported that in cooperation between the Navy and Air Force, a "Saar 4.5" missile ship and fighter jets recently intercepted two drones near Eilat that were on their way to Israeli territory. The IDF added that the drones did not cross into Israeli airspace and no alerts were activated, in accordance with policy. link
West Bank
- IDF launches counter-terrorism operation in Jenin
Exchanges of fire between IDF troops and armed militants in the refugee camp - no casualties on our side • According to the Palestinian Health Ministry, three people were killed and eight injured • The aim of the activity: eliminating militants and striking terror infrastructure
The IDF announced this morning (Tuesday) that it has launched a counter-terrorism operation in Jenin together with the Shin Bet and Border Police. As part of the activity, dozens of fighters began operating in the refugee camp with the aim of eliminating militants and striking terror infrastructure. According to the IDF, hits on several armed militants were identified, and according to the Palestinian Health Ministry, five people were killed and ten injured in the activity, including three in serious condition.
During exchanges of fire between the security forces and militants, at least 30 militants were hit, with no casualties among the security forces. The operation comes in addition to an airstrike conducted by a fighter jet in Jenin on Friday, in which Islam Khamaysa, one of the senior militants of the terror organization in the area and a commander of the Jenin Brigade, was eliminated.
According to the IDF Spokesperson's statement at the time, aircraft of the Air Force, with intelligence guidance from the Shin Bet, struck a building that served as an operations headquarters for the terror infrastructure in Jenin. The building sheltered several militants, including those involved in carrying out shooting attacks in the Jenin area and who were also planning to carry out additional attacks in the near future.
So in summary, this is a major IDF counter-terrorism operation aimed at eliminating militants and striking at terror capabilities and infrastructure in the Jenin refugee camp, which has become a hotbed of militant activity recently. It involves ground troops as well as airstrikes targeting militant operatives and facilities. link
Politics and the Region
- Blinken: The ICC Prosecutor himself was scheduled to visit Israel as early as next week to discuss the investigation and hear from the Israeli Government. The Prosecutor’s staff was supposed to land in Israel today to coordinate the visit. Israel was informed that they did not board their flight around the same time that the Prosecutor went on cable television to announce the charges. These and other circumstances call into question the legitimacy and credibility of this investigation. Link
- Saudi Arabia cools down the enthusiasm: "Without real guarantees for a two-state solution - there will be no normalization"
The spokesperson for the US National Security Council said that Sullivan made progress in the talks, but Riyadh still insists on recognizing a Palestinian state • A Saudi palace source tells N12: "There will be no peace without this, and therefore no normalization with the current Israeli government"
Some key points:
- Saudi Arabia is tempering expectations about normalizing relations with Israel anytime soon.
- This comes despite reports of progress in talks between the White House national security advisor Jake Sullivan and the Saudis.
- Riyadh is demanding real guarantees for the establishment of an independent Palestinian state based on the two-state solution.
- A source from the Saudi royal palace told N12 news: "There will be no peace without this, and therefore no normalization with the current Israeli government."
- The Saudis appear to be conditioning any normalization on a firm commitment by Israel to the two-state solution and Palestinian statehood.
- This stance persists despite Sullivan claiming he made headway in the discussions during his visit to Saudi Arabia.
So in essence, Saudi Arabia is signaling it will not agree to normalization of ties with Israel under the current government unless it receives concrete assurances about a resolution leading to a sovereign Palestinian state, putting a significant constraint on rapprochement for now. link Netanyahu's biggest dream diplomatically was to have normalization with the Saudis but he will not make that step due to their fervent demand for the guarantees for the establishment of a Palestinian state and there is no negotiation with this point. Netanyahu knows that going in that direction will bring his government down, even if he wanted to do that, which he doesn't, even though normalization with Saudi Arabia would help him in whitewashing his legacy (but only a little after his total responsibility for bringing us to October 7, which he still won't acknowledge). Rather that being a player in multiple major changes for the future of Israel and the entire region, he would rather 'play it safe' and hold on to his extremist government so he can stay Prime Minister as long as he is able.
- State President Isaac Herzog criticized Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu this morning (Monday), after Netanyahu threatened earlier this month that "if we have to stand alone, we will stand alone" against the backdrop of the halt in American weapons shipments. At the Eli Hurvitz Conference on Economy and Society of the Israel Democracy Institute, President Herzog criticized those who advocate for the approach that Israel should "retreat into its fortress and let the world be damned."
"I wish to be clear and emphasize: Anyone who claims that due to the current situation Israel should now enter a state of 'a people that shall dwell alone' and retreat into its fortress with 'let the world be damned', as the saying goes, is bitterly mistaken, certainly when it comes to the economic oxygen that is so vital to us," said President Herzog.
"One of our greatest relative advantages that we entered this campaign with is the fact that Israel and our business sector have powerful global bridges and connections," Herzog claimed. "Bridges and connections that are currently threatened by our haters and enemies, who are trying to isolate us in order to harm us."
"Despite the difficulties, we are not disconnected from the world and the world is not disconnected from us. On the contrary, the global and regional front is important to us and it is a central tool for the security of the state," he added. "We all saw it before our eyes, in the face of the Iranian missiles and drones, how a regional and global coalition acted together with us."
President Herzog also referred to his meeting with US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan during the week. "I heard from him what was officially conveyed yesterday - that we have an option for normalization with Saudi Arabia before us. This is a move that could bring about a huge change, a historic 'game changer' that constitutes a victory over the empire of evil."
"I very much hope that this possibility is being seriously examined, for the empire of evil sought on October 7 to destroy the prospect of normalization," Herzog added. "Our struggle is ultimately not just a struggle against Hamas, it is a great, strategic, historical, inter-power and global struggle, and we must do everything to integrate into the great vision of normalization." link The statements that Herzog made are right on the mark. Israel of today, more than at any other time in our history cannot have the arrogance to say we will stand on our own and damn the rest of the world. Begin was famous for saying, who cares about the 'goyim' and what they think. We have to watch out for ourselves because no one else will do it for us. Although it is harder to see with the incredible rise in Antisemitism and anti Israel sentiment, we need others by our side in order to survive and to thrive. The Americans and our other western allies have proven that in this war in arms supplies, in stationing naval ships in the Gulf and Mediterranean and on the diplomatic fronts. Herzog is also right that normalization with Saudi Arabia is a game changer in so many ways but to reach that, movement has to finally be made on the Palestinian State situation. Netanyahu is a politician, not a statesperson. As such, he is only concerned with his own politics. A statesperson will make personal and political sacrifices for the good of the nation in the present but mostly for the future. To go down the road of working for a peaceful settlement to the Israel/Palestine crisis with a 2 State Solution and reach normalization with Saudi Arabia, which in turn means normalization with most of the Arab and Muslim world, takes a visionary, a statesperson, neither of which is Netanyahu.
- Blinken: The ICC Prosecutor himself was scheduled to visit Israel as early as next week to discuss the investigation and hear from the Israeli Government. The Prosecutor’s staff was supposed to land in Israel today to coordinate the visit. Israel was informed that they did not board their flight around the same time that the Prosecutor went on cable television to announce the charges. These and other circumstances call into question the legitimacy and credibility of this investigation. Link
- Saudi Arabia cools down the enthusiasm: "Without real guarantees for a two-state solution - there will be no normalization"
The spokesperson for the US National Security Council said that Sullivan made progress in the talks, but Riyadh still insists on recognizing a Palestinian state • A Saudi palace source tells N12: "There will be no peace without this, and therefore no normalization with the current Israeli government"
Some key points:
- Saudi Arabia is tempering expectations about normalizing relations with Israel anytime soon.
- This comes despite reports of progress in talks between the White House national security advisor Jake Sullivan and the Saudis.
- Riyadh is demanding real guarantees for the establishment of an independent Palestinian state based on the two-state solution.
- A source from the Saudi royal palace told N12 news: "There will be no peace without this, and therefore no normalization with the current Israeli government."
- The Saudis appear to be conditioning any normalization on a firm commitment by Israel to the two-state solution and Palestinian statehood.
- This stance persists despite Sullivan claiming he made headway in the discussions during his visit to Saudi Arabia.
So in essence, Saudi Arabia is signaling it will not agree to normalization of ties with Israel under the current government unless it receives concrete assurances about a resolution leading to a sovereign Palestinian state, putting a significant constraint on rapprochement for now. link Netanyahu's biggest dream diplomatically was to have normalization with the Saudis but he will not make that step due to their fervent demand for the guarantees for the establishment of a Palestinian state and there is no negotiation with this point. Netanyahu knows that going in that direction will bring his government down, even if he wanted to do that, which he doesn't, even though normalization with Saudi Arabia would help him in whitewashing his legacy (but only a little after his total responsibility for bringing us to October 7, which he still won't acknowledge). Rather that being a player in multiple major changes for the future of Israel and the entire region, he would rather 'play it safe' and hold on to his extremist government so he can stay Prime Minister as long as he is able. - State President Isaac Herzog criticized Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu this morning (Monday), after Netanyahu threatened earlier this month that "if we have to stand alone, we will stand alone" against the backdrop of the halt in American weapons shipments. At the Eli Hurvitz Conference on Economy and Society of the Israel Democracy Institute, President Herzog criticized those who advocate for the approach that Israel should "retreat into its fortress and let the world be damned."
"I wish to be clear and emphasize: Anyone who claims that due to the current situation Israel should now enter a state of 'a people that shall dwell alone' and retreat into its fortress with 'let the world be damned', as the saying goes, is bitterly mistaken, certainly when it comes to the economic oxygen that is so vital to us," said President Herzog.
"One of our greatest relative advantages that we entered this campaign with is the fact that Israel and our business sector have powerful global bridges and connections," Herzog claimed. "Bridges and connections that are currently threatened by our haters and enemies, who are trying to isolate us in order to harm us."
"Despite the difficulties, we are not disconnected from the world and the world is not disconnected from us. On the contrary, the global and regional front is important to us and it is a central tool for the security of the state," he added. "We all saw it before our eyes, in the face of the Iranian missiles and drones, how a regional and global coalition acted together with us."
President Herzog also referred to his meeting with US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan during the week. "I heard from him what was officially conveyed yesterday - that we have an option for normalization with Saudi Arabia before us. This is a move that could bring about a huge change, a historic 'game changer' that constitutes a victory over the empire of evil."
"I very much hope that this possibility is being seriously examined, for the empire of evil sought on October 7 to destroy the prospect of normalization," Herzog added. "Our struggle is ultimately not just a struggle against Hamas, it is a great, strategic, historical, inter-power and global struggle, and we must do everything to integrate into the great vision of normalization." link The statements that Herzog made are right on the mark. Israel of today, more than at any other time in our history cannot have the arrogance to say we will stand on our own and damn the rest of the world. Begin was famous for saying, who cares about the 'goyim' and what they think. We have to watch out for ourselves because no one else will do it for us. Although it is harder to see with the incredible rise in Antisemitism and anti Israel sentiment, we need others by our side in order to survive and to thrive. The Americans and our other western allies have proven that in this war in arms supplies, in stationing naval ships in the Gulf and Mediterranean and on the diplomatic fronts. Herzog is also right that normalization with Saudi Arabia is a game changer in so many ways but to reach that, movement has to finally be made on the Palestinian State situation. Netanyahu is a politician, not a statesperson. As such, he is only concerned with his own politics. A statesperson will make personal and political sacrifices for the good of the nation in the present but mostly for the future. To go down the road of working for a peaceful settlement to the Israel/Palestine crisis with a 2 State Solution and reach normalization with Saudi Arabia, which in turn means normalization with most of the Arab and Muslim world, takes a visionary, a statesperson, neither of which is Netanyahu.
Acronyms and Glossary
ICC - International Criminal Court in the Hague
IJC - International Court of Justice in the Hague
UAV - Unmanned Aerial vehicle, Drone. Could be used for surveillance and reconnaissance, or be weaponized with missiles or contain explosives for 'suicide' explosion mission
PA - Palestinian Authority - President Mahmud Abbas, aka Abu MazenJoin my Whatsapp update group https://chat.whatsapp.com/IQ3OtwE6ydxBeBAxWNziB0
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