Lonny's War Update- October 216, 2023

Day 216 (cont) of 132 of our hostages in Hamas captivity- There is nothing more important than getting them home! NOTHING!

“I’ve never met them,
But I miss them.
I’ve never met them,
but I think of them every second.
I’ve never met them,
but they are my family.
BRING THEM HOME NOW!!!”

There is no victory until all of the hostages are home!
‎אין נצחון עד שכל החטופים בבית

Red Alerts - Missile, Rocket, Drone (UAV - unmanned aerial vehicles), and Terror Attacks

*5:00pm- north -hostile aircraft intrusion Kiryat Shemona and surrounding areas and Golan Heights

5:10pm- north- rockets Shlomi-direct hit in Shlomi- still unknown regarding damages or injuries-IDF air strikes in Lebanon

5:30pm-north -hostile aircraft intrusion Kiryat Shemona, Metulla, upper Galilee , surrounding areas and Golan Heights

*2 UAVs shot down in the north and a fire in Shlomi as a result of the rocket hit

Hostage Updates

The Hamas negotiating delegation left Cairo and Bill Burnes, head of the CIA is returning to Washington. Israeli negotiating sources say that the differences with Hamas are too great to bridge. The war cabinet is supposed to meet tonight to decide on next steps.
Collapse of Negotiations in Cairo: The Israeli Delegation Returns, Hamas Delegation Leaves for Doha
After days of attempting to reach an outline agreement, it was announced this evening that both delegations are leaving Cairo, and the head of the CIA will make his way back to the U.S. An American source quoted by Al-Jazeera claims: It has been decided to temporarily suspend the talks in Cairo due to the current situation in Rafah.

Before leaving the indirect hostage-truce talks in Cairo earlier today, Israel’s negotiators put in writing their specific objections to the document issued by Hamas on Monday night that purportedly accepted a ceasefire. The Israeli document has been conveyed to the mediators, Israeli sources say. According to an Egyptian source quoted by Al-Qahera, efforts by Egyptian, Qatari and US mediators “are ongoing to bring the two sides’ points of view closer.”
However, Channel 12 reports that the current round of efforts, at least, is over. It says that in their talks with Burns yesterday, Israeli leaders criticized the CIA chief for continuing the Cairo contacts in the wake of what they have called Hamas’s unacceptable terms, saying his presence risked creating the incorrect impression that the Hamas document could serve as a basis for progress. Link
Four American sources to NBC: Netanyahu refuses to agree to a deal - unless Israel can proceed with military operations in Rafah, even during a ceasefire.

Shay Benjamin, the daughter of Ron Benjamin who was abducted in Gaza, handcuffed her hands and smeared a blood-like liquid on herself at the entrance to Mount Herzl - where the last photo day is being held ahead of the rehearsals for the torch-lighting ceremony. "It seemed absurd to me to hold a celebration ceremony when there are 132 people without independence," 25-year-old Shay told Ynet. "Every day people are dying. It would have been appropriate to mark what a strong society we are, but news, celebrations and parties? It's simply dancing on the blood of the hostages. It's just not appropriate." "How can you say for the glory of the State of Israel when there are still hostahges there?" added Ron Benjamin's daughter. "I'm waiting for Minister Regev to come talk to me. Lighting a torch for the hostages?" The family of Ron Benjamin (53) received the official notification that he was abducted for the first time, almost two months after October 7th. Benjamin, a resident of Rehovot, arrived that morning for a bike ride with friends near Kibbutz Be’eri, and when the sirens began, he decided to return home. His vehicle, which showed signs of gunfire, was found empty a few days later near an interchange. In a recording that Benjamin sent to his daughter, the explosions in the area can be clearly heard: "I don't know where to go, it's overhead, you can hear the booms here. It's coming from Gaza, missiles over our heads. I'm in Be’eri which is across from Gaza. Okay, I'll be on my way. I don't know, I hope everything will be okay, bye." ——there are so many who fully agree with her. As long as there are hostages in Gaza, we cannot celebrate anything. Their world has stopped. Ours need to as well. I will be joining the Forum of Hoatage Families and supporters at their marking of Independence Day. And instead of lighting torches “for the glory of the State of Israel”, this ceremony will be putting out the torches until all 132 hostages are returned to Israel. Link

Gaza Fighting

IDF: Three IDF Soldiers Injured in Rafah, Their Families Notified

The soldiers were injured as a result of a booby-trapped pit explosion in eastern Rafah and were evacuated to receive medical treatment at a hospital. Their families have been notified.

Northern Israel - Lebanon/Hizbollah

Amid the escalation with Hezbollah, Home Front Command Chief Major General Rafi Milo recently toured northern communities - and admitted out loud that the IDF has not yet succeeded in solving the security problem in this area. Wednesday on the "Main Edition" we exposed the full remarks he made during the tour.

"We need to look ahead, especially towards the return of residents," said Major General Milo. "We need to start thinking about the return and how we prepare for it. Meaning, that the moment they tell us 'you can return' - how do we really pounce and provide a response that will allow doing it as quickly as possible. Among other things, to see that children return to schools on September 1st."

At this stage, Milo admits: "We have not yet solved this security problem, and residents will have to return here from a place of security." According to him, in the south the basic security problem was "quite significantly" solved. "Here (in the north) we first need to talk about basic security, and I still think we'll need to consider what to do if it doesn't come from a place of war."

Despite Rafi Milo's remarks, it does not appear that September 1st has indeed been marked as a target date. As we revealed two days ago on the "Main Edition", Prime Minister Netanyahu addressed the discussed date in a Cabinet meeting and claimed: "Who said September 1st is the target date? What if they return a few months after?" This statement managed to anger the evacuated northern residents, who for over half a year now have not returned to their homes.

PM: "Who said 9/1 is the target date for evacuees?" Since the start of the war in Gaza, which also escalated the situation against Hezbollah in the northern arena, tens of thousands of northern residents have been evacuated from their homes. In the last day there have been exchanges of fire in the north. Five Hezbollah operatives were killed in IDF strikes, Hezbollah fired anti-aircraft missiles and rockets, the IDF struck dozens of targets in Lebanon, and Gantz warned that next summer could be "hot" securitywise, but a deeper shift in Israel's approach may be needed for residents to be able to return home.

Many of the moves in the north depend on what happens in the south, whether there will be a deal or a lull that will lead to an arrangement in the north or not, but that is not really happening yet - and the pace is slow. Although there was discussion about the return or non-return of northern residents to their homes on 9/1/24, they are already talking about 11/1/24. Everything is changing, and Israel needs to look at things from a broad perspective. At the beginning of last month, we reported on the "Main Edition" that IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi demanded that the Cabinet include the return of evacuated northern residents - as part of the war goals. But in practice this has not happened yet and there does not seem to be a target date for it. A similar demand was also made by northern municipality heads, who were also rejected. Link

West Bank

Politics

In the political system, they are responding to the US decision to freeze weapons shipments to Israel. "If we need to stand alone, we will stand alone," Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu clarified this evening (Thursday). Minister Benny Gantz also addressed the situation and criticized members of the government: "The attacks against the US by irresponsible ministers are ingratitude." Meanwhile, the White House clarified that they will provide Israel with defensive equipment, but not offensive equipment for Rafah.
"We are on the eve of Independence Day," Netanyahu said in a recorded statement. "In the War of Independence 76 years ago, we were few against many. We had no weapons, there was a weapons embargo on Israel, but with inner fortitude, courage and unity - we won. Today we are much stronger. We are determined, and we are united to defeat our enemies and those who seek our lives." "If we have to stand alone, we will stand alone," the prime minister added. "I've said before that if necessary - we'll fight with our nails. But we have much more than nails, and with that same fortitude, with God's help together we will prevail." National Unity Party chairman Minister Benny Gantz criticized members of the government: "The US stood by Israel in its most difficult hour, and the attacks on it by irresponsible ministers are ingratitude intended for domestic purposes and stemming from political considerations."
He clarified: "I believe the critical weapons shipments will continue. Beyond the security need, it is an important political statement for the continued standing of the US alongside Israel. Israel has a security and moral obligation to continue fighting to return our captives and remove the threat of Hamas from the south of the country, and the US has a moral and strategic obligation to allow Israel the tools needed for this mission." White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby earlier addressed the US decision to freeze the transfer of weapons shipments to Israel. "The US will continue to provide Israel with all the needs it requires to defend itself, but not specific weapons for a specific mission," he clarified. "Our message on a broad operation in Rafah is clear, Israel will not receive specific weapons - and will have to choose."
In a briefing to the media, Kirby added: "There are things that can be done together with Israel to assist in the collapse of Hamas. We have offered alternatives - cooperation to prevent smuggling on the Philadelphia route. Talks with Israel are ongoing all the time." He also clarified: "Weapons shipments are still arriving in Israel, and that will continue. We delayed one shipment."
Tonight, President Biden clarified in an interview with CNN: "If the operation in Rafah expands - Israel will not receive weapons and shells." However, Biden said that "the US will continue to ensure Israel is secure in its ability to respond to attacks, such as those that have recently come from the Middle East."
After Biden's announcement, a senior Israeli official said: "We have enough means to enter Rafah and conquer it without American assistance. Rafah will be conquered in any case. The main problem is the message this sends to Hezbollah and Iran, that Israel will ostensibly arrive without weapons for a confrontation in the north. Biden made a serious mistake, both morally and politically." The secret discussions, the review that began last month, and the Israeli leak.
Today, the Wall Street Journal published new details about the US decision to freeze the transfer of security aid to Israel. According to the report, the decision was meant to be secret - but an Israeli leak forced the US to admit to the move. Biden was concerned that Israel would use the weapons in Rafah and ordered a halt to the transfer of aid.
The staff work that formed the basis for the decision was already initiated last month. The administration began a "quiet review" of weapons shipments to Israel, after months of opposition to limiting the transfer of weapons. Official sources said that work was secret, due to the political sensitivity of the move. According to the report, until the end of last week, Biden administration officials still hoped it would be possible to achieve a ceasefire. When no deal was reached, Israel entered Rafah, and the Americans decided to freeze weapons shipments. President Biden chose to freeze one weapons shipment, and an official in the administration said the move was made because the use of that weapon could be particularly destructive in a densely populated urban environment like Rafah.
The decision was initially intended to signal discreetly to Israel that it should focus on trying to establish a temporary ceasefire with Hamas, rather than proceeding with an attack on Rafah, according to the report. "We tried to handle this diplomatically," said one American official. ---Biden is not abandoning Israel as some of the politicians are saying. Biden has made it very clear for a long time that he is against a full scale operation in Rafah and would only be open to it if we had a real plan to safely evacuate a million refugees from the battle area. None of the IDF plans gave the US the feeling that it could be done without heavy civilian casualties. The biggest issue with he withholding of the weapons is the timing as it strengthened Hamas stance as they can see it as Israel losing the American Administration support, which is not the case. The timing, though was forced. If our forces didn't begin the Rafah operation, the administration may not have held back this delivery and that wouldn't have given Hamas the impression of loss of support for Israel. Netanyahu's statements about a Rafah operation doesn't help in the relations with the US. Prior to the Iran attack on Israel, Netanyahu had brought the Israel/US relationship to the lowest point it has ever been. That got turned around with the coalition that the US put together to aid in Israel's defense against the Iranian attack brought back the relationship to a more even keel but Netanyahu's arrogant statements are steering the relationship back into the toilet. Link
War cabinet minister Benny Gantz criticizes attacks on the US by Israeli government ministers following a post from National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir on X in which he quipped that “Hamas [loves] Biden,” complete with a heart emoji.
“The US stood by Israel in its most difficult hour and the attacks on it by irresponsible ministers are ingratitude intended for domestic purposes and stemming from political considerations,” Gantz says in a statement that doesn’t mention Ben Gvir by name.
Ben Gvir’s slight against the US president came after Biden said he would freeze the transfer of certain weapons to Israel should the military advance into Rafah, Gaza’s southernmost city. Commenting on Biden’s ultimatum, Gantz says he believes the vital arm shipments will continue.
“Israel has a moral and security obligation to continue fighting to return our hostages and remove the threat of Hamas from the country’s south, and the US has a moral and strategic obligation to provide Israel with the tools required for this mission,” he adds. Link
The White House indicates that it has taken the far-reaching step of threatening to withhold aid from Israel at this stage in the war because it feels that Hamas has been significantly depleted.
“We believe that [Israel has] put an enormous amount of pressure on Hamas and that there are better ways to go after what is left of Hamas in Rafah than a major ground operation,” White House National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby says in a briefing with reporters.
“Early on in the conflict, Hamas didn’t feel and hadn’t suffered the kinds of pressure and the kinds of casualties that they have suffered now,” he says. “[Israel has] eliminated a lot of the leaders through the fighting that they have conducted over the last several months. They have decimated the ranks of many of their units. The picture of Hamas today is not what it was six months ago,” Kirby continues.
The White House spokesperson adds that the decision by US President Joe Biden to issue the threat also had to do with the “preps for a major operation in Rafah and certainly rhetoric around that” coming out of Israel. Link
US President Joe Biden’s threat to withhold arms in the event of a full-on Rafah incursion has sparked harsh domestic criticism of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, with critics panning both his handling of relations with the United States and his far-right allies’ “insulting” denunciations of Jerusalem’s closest ally.
“The mess-up of this becoming a public disagreement during wartime is entirely on the government,” Opposition Leader Yair Lapid told Radio 103FM on Thursday, condemning what he said was the government’s “failed management” of the bilateral relationship.
Lapid cited remarks by Netanyahu during Holocaust Remembrance Day pledging to go it alone if needed, which came days after Biden signed a hard-fought bill into law allocating billions of dollars in foreign assistance to Israel’s military. “It wasn’t supposed to come to this,” the opposition leader said. “The prime minister, one minute after the Americans give us $14 billion, stands at Yad Vashem on Holocaust Remembrance Day and says that ‘if Israel has to stand alone, it will stand alone.’ The Americans were offended by this.”
On CNN Wednesday night, Biden announced that his administration would stop providing Israel with offensive weapons if it launches a ground invasion into populated parts of the souther n Gaza city of Rafah as part of its campaign to topple the Hamas terror group. Link
Cabinet Secretary Yossi Fuchs is working on an ultra-Orthodox enlistment outline with Haredi parties that could be presented to the government for approval as early as next week, national broadcaster Kan reported on
Wednesday.
Such a proposal could be intended to show the court that the government is making progress on finding a path forward on enlisting Haredim.
While details are scant, it appears the proposal is not in line with the demands of war cabinet member Benny Gantz — who had presented his own outline together with fellow National Unity minister Gadi Eisenkot and who has said that he “will not be a partner to exercises and tricks at the expense of the state’s security needs.”
Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has said that he will not support any proposal not backed by Gantz and Eisenkot.
Responding to the Kan report, Yisrael Beytenu party chairman Avigdor Liberman on Thursday appealed to Gallant, Gantz and Eisenkot “to be loyal to the values of the IDF as the people’s army, and not support the new non-conscription law promoted by the government.”  It was not clear whether Liberman was privy to details on the plan, or was simply assuming it would fall short of providing a true solution to the issue.
“I call on Defense Minister Gallant to announce that the proposal as formulated by the cabinet secretary is unacceptable to him, and for ministers Gantz and Eisenkot to declare that if the government approves the shameful proposal, they will immediately announce their withdrawal from the coalition and the government,” he tweeted.
Speaking with the Haredi news site Behadrei Haredim on Wednesday, Jerusalem Affairs and Jewish Heritage Minister Meir Porush, a senior member of the ultra-Orthodox United Torah Judaism party, said that it remained unlikely that a consensus would be reached with critics of exemptions.  As such, members of the Haredi parties believe that the only way forward is to negotiate with Fuchs and for Netanyahu to introduce a bill himself, Behadrei Haredim reported.
Netanyahu has reportedly told representatives of ultra-Orthodox parties that he will promote a private bill exempting yeshiva students from military conscription following the upcoming Knesset recess.
By taking the private bill route, Netanyahu may be able to bring the legislation to the Knesset floor without needing to win approval from the attorney general or members of his cabinet who have criticized his previous proposals as insufficient.
Ultra-Orthodox men of military age have been able to avoid the draft for decades by enrolling in yeshivas for Torah study and obtaining repeated one-year service deferrals until they reach the age of military exemption.
Successive Netanyahu governments have struggled to come to a consensus on legislation dealing with the issue since a 2017 High Court of Justice decision determined blanket military service exemptions for ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students to be discriminatory and unconstitutional, and ordered the state to find a solution to the issue.
The law allowing for blanket military service exemptions expired in June 2023, and a subsequent government resolution instructing the IDF not to enforce conscription on such men despite the expiry lapsed on April 1.  The High Court issued an interim order on March 28 that state funding for Haredi yeshivas for students obligated to enlist must be frozen, and that there was no longer any legal framework to not draft eligible Haredi men to the IDF.  This presented a massive political problem for Netanyahu and his coalition, since he does not have a majority without the ultra-Orthodox parties, for whom the blanket exemptions from military service and yeshiva funding are critical priorities
Last Wednesday, the State Attorney’s Office told the High Court that the government needs several more weeks to finish working on a draft plan aimed at regulating the enlistment of ultra-Orthodox men.
In its submission to the court, the state said its plan would immediately draft at least some ultra-Orthodox men into the army, and include a program for longer-term conscription from the community.
According to the government’s statement to the court, Defense Minister Gallant, IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi, and other senior officers and officials in the army and Defense Ministry have held a series of meetings at which “options for preparing the security establishment to draft members of the ultra-Orthodox public were examined, while taking into account the different complexities relating to the size of the community, its characteristics and the needs of the current war.” Link

Israel's emergency government may soon fall apart due to its inability to reach a hostage negotiation deal, KAN reported on Thursday.
Minister-without-portfolio Gantz's National Unity Party believes that the negotiations have reached an impasse and the chances of achieving a deal are low. During a war cabinet meeting on Wednesday, MK Gadi Eisenkot made it clear that if there was no progress, he would quit the government. KAN reported last month that the coalition is preparing for a situation in which Gantz leaves the government, which could see the return of Gideon Sa'ar to the government and entry into the war cabinet. Link

Search This Blog

Lonny's Ramblings