Lonny's War Update- October 212, 2023- May 5, 2024

Day 212 of 132  of our hostages in Hamas captivity- **There is nothing more important than getting them home! NOTHING!**

“I’ve never met them,

But I miss them. 

I’ve never met them,

but I think of them every second. 

I’ve never met them,

but they are my family. 

BRING THEM HOME NOW!!!”

There is no victory until all of the hostages are home!

‎אין נצחון עד שכל החטופים בבית

Red Alerts - Missile, Rocket, Drone (UAV - unmanned aerial vehicles), and Terror Attacks

*1:00pm- red alert north rockets Kiryat Shemona

*1:15pm-red alert north rockets Kiryat Shemona, Beit Hilel, Tel Hai, Kibbutzim Margaliot, Dafna, Misgav Am- over 30 rockets launched with 2 rockets hits in Kiryat Shemona causing damage. It is currently unknown what the damages are. A 65 year old man was lightly injured and an ambulance was hit. 

*1:30- red alert south- rockets Kerem Shalom and Gaza envelope  -Several people are wounded in the Hamas rocket attack on the Kerem Shalom area, authorities say. The Eshkol Regional Council says the rockets struck an open area near a military position, causing injuries. 3 are in serious condition.  At least 10 rockets were fired from the Rafah area in the attack.- mortar fire to Gaza border communities followed the rockets and the army is responding with tank fire. Army helicopters attacked in Rafah. Following the attack, the Kerem Crossing has been closed to all humanitarian aid trucks crossing into Gaza. 

 

Hostage Updates 

• Gantz and Eisenkot were not invited to the consultative phone call with the Prime Minister in which it was decided not to send a delegation to Cairo**. The Prime Minister's Office responded: The Prime Minister holds routine, ongoing situation assessments with the heads of the security establishment. Unlike the Security Cabinet which convenes frequently, a situation assessment does not require summoning Cabinet ministers. - Netanyahu’s office announced over Shabbat that the negotiating team will not be going to Cairo until Hamas provides an official response to the Egyptian proposal basically at the same time that “official sources” stated that Israel does not agree to end the war.”  Each day and each of these statements makes it even more baffling why Gantz and Eisencott don’t leave this good for nothing government. 

• Sources from Hamas quoted on the Saudi Al-Sharq channel claim that "there are no substantial obstacles standing in the way of a deal." According to them, "the Egyptian draft is acceptable" but they "need clarifications regarding some clauses." The sources added that Hamas agreed in principle to the "draft agreement," but demands a clear written text for clauses dealing with "sustainable calm," a final withdrawal of the IDF from Gaza, and an amendment to the clause granting Israel veto power over the names of Palestinian prisoners that Hamas demands be released in exchange for the captured soldiers. —I learned last night from a source who has direct knowledge that the Egyptian proposal is an outline for a deal and contains very few actual details such as how many humanitarian hostages are to be released in the first stage. All of the press have latched in to the number of 33 because it was reported that Israel believes that only 33 of the hostages in that category are still alive but this number is not anywhere in the Egyptian proposal. As I said last night, all of the talk of the details of the proposal are pure speculation. 

• Senior Hamas Official: The US will commit to ending the war, even without Israeli approval. Two important developments occurred in the contacts for another hostage deal with Hamas. According to a highly reliable senior source in Hamas so far, the Americans conveyed a commitment to Hamas through the Qataris and Egyptians that the war will cease - whether Israel approves or not. The Americans will ensure that the war ends after the first stage and the release of the first 33 hostages. From Hamas' perspective, the American commitment carries much more weight than any Israeli statement. Additionally, progress was made regarding the names of the "heavy" prisoners serving life and multiple life sentences who are supposed to be released as part of the deal. This follows some Israeli concessions on the issue. The Americans clarified to the contacts of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar outside the Strip that Israel's fighting against the military wing of the terror organization will continue. But it will continue outside the Strip. Hamas' leadership's response to this: We know how to deal with targeted eliminations and other activity, we have a lot of experience as an underground terrorist apparatus. Another important point, which is not part of the discourse, relates to the day after the war. While in Israel they are dragging their feet and debunking all sorts of fanciful ideas about an Arab force entering Gaza, Hamas is already operating and has even clarified to all parties it is talking to that it is willing to give up being the governing power in the Gaza Strip. Moreover, Hamas is already in a system of cooperation and progress with the people of Mohammad Dahlan, backed by Emirati money, on a new system that will come into operation in the Strip. Hamas is willing to give up rule, in its view this was never the central thing, and it is working on an alternative to rule in the Strip. A senior Hamas source told N12 this morning that the organization's leadership has approved proceeding with the first stage as part of another deal for the release of hostages. This is after the US conveyed a commitment through Egypt and Qatar that the IDF will completely withdraw from the Gaza Strip after the 124 execution days of the entire deal and the war will cease. Following the report on the progress in negotiations, a political source clarified in an exceptional statement on Saturday that "Israel will in no way agree to end the war as part of an agreement for the release of our hostages. As decided by the political leadership, the IDF will enter Rafah and destroy Hamas' remaining brigades in it - whether there is a temporary lull for the release of our hostages or not." In another statement on Saturday, the political source said: "Publications that Israel has agreed to end the war as part of a hostage deal or that Israel will allow guarantees from the mediators for ending the war - are incorrect. Until now, Hamas has not given up on its demand for the war to end, thereby thwarting the possibility of reaching an agreement." —the writer of this article is Ehud Yaari, a very respected expert journalist covering the Arab world. However, no one knows what is actually going on in the negotiations. Almost no information is getting out and there aren’t leaks. I know this from an excellent source. This means that most of what is being published including what I have been posting is greatly speculation, assumptions and assessments of the speculation as well as assessments of the anonymous ‘official’ sources. And those ‘official’ sources are  Netanyahu’s people putting out statements meant to scuttle the negotiations to make sure there won’t be an agreement to end the war. It is entirely possible that the Americans have hinted or insinuated that agreement to release the hostages will bring about an end of the war. Bringing an earlier end to the war is actually in the hands of two people one of whom holds the stronger hand if he chooses to use it. The two are Netanyahu and Biden. Netanyahu could choose to agree to an end if the war in order to save the hostages’ lives, which is unlikely because it will cause his government to fall; or he can choose to do it to stay in Biden’s good graces, also an unlikely scenario and also will lead to the end of his government. Biden, on the other hand, doesn’t only have the better hand, he owns the whole deck of cards. All he has to do is tell Netanyahu that he is stopping the supply of bombs immediately if he doesn’t make the deal. That means the end of the war. No, we are not out of bombs but if we don’t have a constant resupply, then the army needs to look at what we have on hand and see what we need if war breaks out in the north, or worse, with Iran. This would mean almost a complete halt in bombing in Gaza and prevent a Rafah operation. I have no idea if this is going to be Biden’s move to bring about the agreement which can only happen if Hamas has assurances that the war will end, but it is very possible. https://www.mako.co.il/news-military/2024_q2/Article-4e7fe7f43a44f81026.htm

• A Hamas senior official to the Qatari newspaper Al-Arabi Al-Jadeed: "We are interested in reaching an agreement, but not at any cost. There will be no agreement without a complete cessation of the war and an Israeli withdrawal from the entire Gaza Strip. Netanyahu is threatening to invade Rafah in order to pressure and prevent reaching an agreement for personal considerations. Israel will pay a heavy price for any adventure it may undertake and is doomed to failure."

• My brother’s FB post: “This is what I understand (maybe it's not correct) but from my understanding of talking with Hamas leaders for 18 years: Hamas wants to hear from Netanyahu: The war is over!  This is more important to them than any international guarantees (that cannot really guarantee them anything).”

• The head of Hamas' political bureau, Ismael Haniya emphasized ahead of the upcoming round of talks that Hamas is showing seriousness and positivity towards the negotiations. "We conducted a series of contacts with the mediators and with the resistance factions - and held intensive consultations at home and abroad before the delegation left for Cairo. It conveyed its positive and flexible positions, with stopping the aggression against our people being its top priority." He further emphasized that "Hamas is still interested in reaching a comprehensive agreement that ensures withdrawal and achieves a serious prisoner exchange deal."

Gaza Fighting 

• IDF and Shin Bet: We eliminated a senior Jihad leader, among those who led the terror attack on October 7. Iman Zaarub, one of the senior officials of the terror organization in Rafah, commanded the terror attack of the Nukhba militants in the community and at the Sufa outpost - and in recent days led from his hiding place the preparations for combat in the southern Gaza Strip. In a joint strike by the IDF and the Shin Bet, one of the commanders of Rafah's division in the Islamic Jihad terror organization was eliminated, who was one of the leaders of the organization's terror attack into Israeli territory during the events of October 7. The militant Iman Zaarub, a senior Islamic Jihad official, directed militants and in recent years commanded several attempts to raid into Israeli territories.  https://www.ynet.co.il/news/article/rjwrub4gr?utm_source=ynet.app.ios&utm_term=rjwrub4gr&utm_campaign=general_share&utm_medium=social&utm_content=Header

• In parallel with preparations for the operation in Rafah: The IDF destroys terror infrastructures and eliminates terrorists in the central Gaza Strip** Fighters from Brigade 99 continue to operate in the central Gaza Strip, destroy terror targets and eliminate Hamas terrorists, including a central terrorist from the Al-Burij Battalion. In parallel, aircraft from the Air Force eliminated the terrorist Salah Jamil Muhammad Amad, who was responsible for combat support in the Al-Burij Battalion of the terror organization. In the strike, additional terrorists who were with him in the terror infrastructure were also eliminated.
• The chief of the United Nations’ food program warns of a “full-blown famine” in northern Gaza and reiterates calls for a ceasefire in the war between Israel and Hamas, an assertion sharply rebuffed by Israel’s Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories. “There is famine, full-blown famine in the north and it’s moving its way south,” Cindy McCain, executive director of the World Food Program, says in an excerpt of a Friday interview with NBC News.“What we are asking for and what we’ve continually asked for is a ceasefire and the ability to have unfettered access to get in safe… into Gaza — various ports, various gate crossings,” McCain says.  In response, a spokesman for the Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories, a Defense Ministry body, tells The Times of Israel that the “assertion is incorrect.” “In recent months, the State of Israel has increased its humanitarian effort to flood the Gaza Strip with food, medical equipment and equipment for tents,” the spokesperson says. “In recent weeks, approximately a hundred trucks loaded with humanitarian equipment, mainly food, have been sent daily to the northern Gaza Strip in coordination with the international community, including the UN organizations active in Gaza,” COGAT says, adding that “the number of aid trucks sent to the north of the Gaza Strip relative to the population is higher than the number of aid trucks sent to the south of the Gaza Strip.” “In addition, in recent weeks, Israel has been leading other major efforts that have significantly improved the humanitarian situation in the Gaza Strip — in both the north and the south,” COGAT says.“In light of this, as part of the continuous engagement between Israeli authorities and with the UN representatives in the region, including the WFP organization, the international interlocutors stated ‘that the humanitarian situation is improving, there is a variety of goods in warehouses and markets in the north,'” the statement says. “And in light of the improved situation, they ask to ‘reduce the extent of goods transported to the northern Gaza Strip’ since the quantities flowing are too high relative to the population,” COGAT says.  -based on experience, I don’t take the announcements by COGAT or the UN as gospel. I will try to get a better indication of what is actually happening in the ground in Northern Gaza through other reliable sources. I would tend to believe that the real situation is somewhere between the 2 reports. https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/world-food-programme-director-north-gaza-in-full-blown-famine-cogat-assertion-is-incorrect/

Northern Israel - Lebanon/Hizbollah

West Bank

Politics

• Confrontation in the Cabinet Over the Defense Budget, Gallant and Smotrich Attacked Each Other: "Political Agenda" During last Thursday’s political-security cabinet meeting, another heated confrontation was recorded between Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich over the issue of the defense budget. Additionally, Foreign Minister Israel Katz and Innovation, Science and Technology Minister Galit Diskin Atbaryan spoke out against Smotrich due to the delay in the defense budget. During the meeting, Gallant explained that there are very significant budgetary needs and said that they need to see how to increase the defense budget - because "there is no other choice." Smotrich, for his part, referred to the fact that a committee is expected to examine the budget, and said that "it was agreed that a budgetary committee should be established to examine and see what the needs are." At this point, Gallant attacked Smotrich, claiming: "I don't need to listen to someone who comes with a political agenda." The Finance Minister objected to this: "What political agenda? I reject your words outright." Government Secretary Yossi Fuchs intervened in the conversation between the two, and told Gallant that Smotrich has the right to state his opinion. Gallant was furious about this, and lashed out at Fuchs: "I'm used to ministers interrupting me, but not the government secretary - who speaks on behalf." Fuchs responded: "On whose behalf am I speaking? The only boss I have is the Prime Minister." On behalf of the Government Secretary's Office, it was reported: "We do not respond to motivated leaks from security forums." There have already been many arguments between Smotrich and Gallant over the issue of the defense budget. About two weeks ago, the Defense Minister turned to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and accused Smotrich of "jeopardizing the humanitarian response required for the continuation of the operation in Gaza." In a letter to the Prime Minister, Gallant claimed that Smotrich was refusing to transfer 600 million shekels, which are needed, among other things, for the purchase of tents for the population being evacuated from Rafah and the opening of the Ashdod port for the transfer of goods. "The decisions have a direct impact on the continuation of the war," he noted.  Another confrontation was revealed on Ynet about a month ago, when it became known that Smotrich opposes approving the purchase of two squadrons of fighter jets until the committee to examine the defense budget is convened. In a letter to Netanyahu, Smotrich noted that he was vetoing the convening of the committee. Security officials attacked him, noting that "Smotrich is bringing politics into the cockpit and forgetting that we are in a multi-front war."  Smotrich then wrote to Netanyahu that "the Defense Ministry is seeking to convene, without agreement, the Ministerial Committee for the Procurement of the Defense System to approve two long-term deals with a total cost of approximately 35 billion shekels for the purchase of an F-35 fighter jet squadron and an F-15 fighter jet squadron. Convening the committee and approving a deal of this magnitude without the consent of the Finance Ministry and over the head of the Finance Minister is unprecedented, and I do not intend to approve it." The battle over the new defense budget, in light of the war, has been ongoing for several months between the Treasury and the defense establishment. While the IDF has formulated a force buildup plan worth 220 billion shekels spread over 7-5 years, the Treasury opposes and agrees to a force buildup plan worth 75 billion shekels for only 8 years. About three months ago, the parties decided that as long as there are no agreements, and before the committee is established, the defense budget will initially stand at 82 billion shekels. However, Netanyahu instructed that the discussions should start from an amount of 100 billion shekels, which would allow the defense establishment to enter into engagements and procurement. In the 2024 budget, before the committee was established, 20 billion shekels were allocated for force buildup. Although the differences between the amounts seem quite high, each plan is spread over a different period, and in terms of average annual expenditure, it is approximately 10-12 billion shekels. Therefore, the essence of the dispute is the long-term future of the state budget and the defense budget. The Treasury is concerned that particularly long-term commitments today will lead to low flexibility in the defense budget in the future and will constitute a much more significant burden on the entire state budget in the coming decades.—Smotrich is a failed finance minister who also thinks it is October 6. The only money that he gives out without many questions is for settlements in the West Bank and for religious education  he is perhaps the most parochial finance minister in our Hebrew and is only concerned with his own agenda.  https://www.ynet.co.il/news/article/h1zt7vzza?utm_source=ynet.app.ios&utm_term=h1zt7vzza&utm_campaign=general_share&utm_medium=social&utm_content=Header

• the cabinet just voted unanimously to close down the Qatari sponsored Al Jazeera offices in Israel. The head of the Mossad and other government professionals recommended not to put this to a vote during the intensive negotiating time for the release of the hostages due to their concerns of harming relations with Qatar. The ministers of the National Union party (Benny Gantz) were not present for the vote and had been against taking a vote at this time. Benny GantzAl Jazeera has been operating in Israel for 28 years. Netanyahu is the final say of what goes to a vote in the cabinet. This move is in line with his statement of a Rafah operation with or without a hostage deal. He continues to make it clear that he does not want a hostage deal as it will lead to an end of the war. His statements and actions are proving this. https://www.mako.co.il/news-politics/2024_q2/Article-5231e580a284f81026.htm

• Transportation Minister and member of the Political-Security Cabinet Miri Regev confirmed last night (Saturday) for the first time that Israel attacked Iran - in response to the missile and UAV attack. "We retaliated and the message got across. Iran received the message, and the world looking on understands that the State of Israel is no sucker," she said. Regev is the first official source to break the ambiguity that had prevailed until now around the attack that took place at the "Shikari" air force base in the city of Isfahan in the middle of last month - five days after the unprecedented attack from Iran on Israel in which 185 UAVs, 36 cruise missiles and 110 surface-to-surface missiles were fired. — Miri Regev, another idiot minister who doesn’t know how to restrain her mouth made a stupid announcement that serves no one except herself for being the first to admit it was an Israeli strike. Why was it necessary? The whole world knows it was Israel. There is absolutely no benefit from this admission, only potential consequences. https://www.ynet.co.il/news/article/rjm1z9efr?utm_source=ynet.app.ios&utm_term=rjm1z9efr&utm_campaign=general_share&utm_medium=social&utm_content=Header