πŸŽ—️Lonny's War Update- October 228, 2023 - May 21, 2024 (cont)πŸŽ—️

  

πŸŽ—️Day 228 (cont) that 128 of our hostages in Hamas captivity
**There is nothing more important than getting them home! NOTHING!**

“I’ve never met them,
But I miss them. 
I’ve never met them,
but I think of them every second. 
I’ve never met them,
but they are my family. 
BRING THEM HOME NOW!!!”


There is no victory until all of the hostages are home!
‎ΧΧ™ΧŸ Χ Χ¦Χ—Χ•ΧŸ Χ’Χ“ Χ©Χ›Χœ Χ”Χ—Χ˜Χ•Χ€Χ™Χ Χ‘Χ‘Χ™Χͺ

Red Alerts - Missile, Rocket, Drone (UAV - unmanned aerial vehicles), and Terror Attacks and Death Announcements

*

Hostage Updates 

  • The Chief of Staff noted that the IDF believes that military pressure, including the elimination of many Hamas commanders and militants, will lead to the release of live hostages. "We are dismantling Hamas' military wing," he added. "We want to bring our hostages home alive, and we want to bring back our hostages who are sadly no longer among the living for burial in Israel. These are very important missions. The message is that even if there was a place we did not reach last time, and now we are reaching it, there is no place, no matter how many explosives it has placed in the walls and how many shafts it has camouflaged - there is no place that can withstand an attack by the IDF's combat engineers."

Gaza 

  • Israel moves to more limited Rafah assault plan, to which US will not object – report: Washington Post analyst says plan to send two divisions into south Gaza city has been shelved, unnamed Israeli defense officials have agreed on how ‘day after’ will look

    Israel has decided to shelve plans for a major offensive in the Gaza Strip’s southern city of Rafah, and will act in a more limited manner, after discussions with the US on the matter, Washington Post analyst David Ignatius reported Monday.

    Ignatius said, based on conversations with unidentified officials with knowledge of the matter, that a previous plan to send two divisions into the city will not move forward, and operations will instead be more restrained.

    Washington believes the new plans will result in fewer civilian casualties and thus is not expected to oppose them, Ignatius wrote.

    He wrote that after US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan met with Saudi and Israeli officials this week, Washington had signposted “the direction of a gradual end to Israeli combat operations and the beginning of a still-fuzzy ‘day after.'”

    The report said that unspecified Israeli defense officials have also agreed on how Gaza will look at the conclusion of the war.

    “[It] will include a Palestinian security force drawn in part from the Palestinian Authority’s administrative payroll in Gaza. This Palestinian force will be overseen by a governing council of Palestinian notables, backed by moderate Arab states such as Egypt, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia,” Ignatius wrote. “Some Israeli officials — but not Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu — accept that this governing entity would have ties with the PA in Ramallah.”

    Ignatius said additionally that Hamas has signaled that it “might” accept this outline as part of a truce and hostage deal.

    the Israeli military estimated that some 950,000 Palestinians had evacuated the Rafah area, as ground forces operate in the eastern part of the city.

    The military claims it learned from past experiences when it came to evacuating the population in Rafah, which was carried out at a much faster pace than the United States had predicted.

    Some 300,000 to 400,000 civilians remain in Rafah, mostly in the coastal area and some parts of the center of the city. More than a million Palestinians were sheltering in the city before the IDF pushed into the area.

    The IDF believes that some Hamas operatives and members of other terror groups fled Rafah with the population to the humanitarian zone, as there are no Israeli checkpoints.

    Rafah has been seen by the IDF as Hamas’s last major stronghold in Gaza,  where four of its remaining battalions are located. Two more Hamas battalions remain in central Gaza, in the Nuseirat and Deir al-Balah camps.

    Israel believes Hamas leaders and many operatives are hiding in Rafah, and also that an unspecified number of the 124 remaining hostages kidnapped in the Hamas-led October 7 atrocities are being held in the city.

    The city in southern Gaza is also one of the last locations where Hamas was believed by the IDF to have major rocket stockpiles. The IDF believes that Hamas has the capability to launch rocket attacks on central Israel from the Rafah area, and when troops advance further into the city, the terror group is likely to carry out such an attack.

    The IDF still maintains control of the Rafah Border Crossing with Egypt, which had been a major conduit of humanitarian aid into the enclave. The crossing has remained shuttered since the IDF seized control of the Gazan side on May 7, as Egypt has insisted that it will not allow deliveries to resume until the Gazan side of the crossing is back under Palestinian control.

    At the same time, there were ongoing operations along the so-called Philadelphi Corridor, separating Egypt and Gaza.

    The IDF has so far captured only about half of the corridor — in eastern Rafah — which runs for a total of 14 kilometers (8.7 miles) all along the Gaza-Egypt. link border.

  • The United Nations says it has suspended food distribution in the southern Gaza city of Rafah due to lack of supplies and insecurity. It also said no aid trucks entered in the past two days via a floating pier set up by the US for sea deliveries.

    The UN has not specified how many people remain in Rafah after the Israeli military launched an intensified assault there on May 6, but there appears to be several hundred thousand people. Israel says more than 1 million have evacuated.

    Abeer Etefa, a spokesperson for the UN’s World Food Program, warns that “humanitarian operations in Gaza are near collapse.” If food and other supplies don’t resume entering Gaza “in massive quantities, famine-like conditions will spread,” she says.  Etefa said the WFP had also stopped distribution in Rafah after exhausting its stocks. It continues passing out hot meals in central Gaza.
    Israel has opened crossing allowing in aid to northern Gaza.  link

  • IDF forces eliminated dozens of Hamas and Islamic Jihad militants in Rafah:
    During activity by the Givati Brigade's combat team in Rafah, a force from the Tzabar Battalion identified three armed militants as they exited a tunnel shaft, the IDF Spokesperson updated. The force apprehended the militants and they were taken for further questioning. After searches of the building, many combat means were uncovered, including Kalashnikov rifles, RPG launchers and magazines. Additionally, the forces located tunnel shafts and over the past day eliminated around 20 militants.




Northern Israel - Lebanon/Hizbollah

  • IDF says Hezbollah’s coastal rocket commander killed in drone strike; 
Military says Qassem Saqlawi, targeted near Tyre in south Lebanon, carried out many attacks on Israel amid war; three drones from Iraq, Syria downed by fighter jets, warship. The commander of Hezbollah’s rocket and missile unit in the terror group’s coastal division was killed in an airstrike Monday, the Israel Defense Forces announced.

Qassem Saqlawi was targeted in a drone strike while driving in the Tyre area in southern Lebanon.  Hezbollah announced Saqlawi’s death following the strike, saying he was killed “on the road to Jerusalem,” its term for operatives slain in Israeli strikes. The terror group did not refer to Saqlawi as a commander or list a role for him. The IDF said in a statement Tuesday morning that Saqlawi was responsible for planning and carrying out “many” rocket and anti-tank guided missile attacks on Israel amid the war, from the coastal region in south Lebanon.

The military says that more than 30 Hezbollah commanders have been killed in its strikes in southern Lebanon amid the war in the past seven months.  link 

  •  Fighter jets carried out a wave of strikes against Hezbollah targets in four different areas of southern Lebanon, the military says.
    The targets included a Hezbollah cell in Odaisseh, a rocket launcher in Halta, and buildings used by the terror group in Yaroun, Maroun al-Ras, and Ayta ash-Shab, according to the IDF.
    The IDF says it also shelled with artillery rocket launch sites in south Lebanon used in attacks on northern Israel today. The rockets caused no injuries.  video


West Bank

  • At least seven Palestinians were killed as the military launched what it said was a counter-terrorism operation in the northern West Bank city of Jenin on Tuesday morning.

    The Israel Defense Forces said it had launched the operation following “intelligence information from the Shin Bet indicating the activity of armed terrorists affiliated with the Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad terror organizations, and the presence of many terror infrastructures in the area.” It said that troops had shot several gunmen amid clashes.  The Palestinian Authority health ministry said seven Palestinians were killed amid the raid. Another nine were wounded, including three in serious condition, the ministry said.

    Wafa, the official PA news agency, said that among the dead was a doctor, Usaeed Jabareen, who worked as a surgeon at the Jenin Governmental Hospital.

    A schoolteacher, Allam Jaradat, and a student were also killed, Wafa reported, citing hospital director Wissam Bakr. Jenin is widely seen as a hotbed of terrorist activity, and the IDF regularly carries out operations there.  link


Politics and the Region

  • Karai's zigzag, after American outrage: "I instructed to return the equipment to AP agency"

    The Biden administration sent urgent messages demanding to cancel the move against the American news agency, and hours after boasting about the action following the Al-Jazeera law - the Communications Minister announced that he is revoking it. He tried to shift the responsibility to the Defense Ministry: "They want to examine if the live broadcasts endanger the forces."  link  Earlier today, the Prime Minister's Office (PMO) made a statement that the order to confiscate the AP Agencies equipment from their offices in Sderot did not come from the Prime Minister.  As Karai is one of Netanyahu's lapdogs, I find this hard to believe and the statement from the PMO was to enable Netanyahu to have plausible deniability and the ability to order the Communications Minister to return the equipment while shifting the responsibility to the Defense Ministry (something that Netanyahu has been doing since the beginning of the war to shift responsibility and blame off of him).


  • The Manama Declaration
    While Israel’s government remains in turmoil, at best, and utter denial, at worst, the Arab League met this week and released the Manama Declaration on Thursday. This declaration both closely aligns with Western regional interests and approaches Israel with the utmost pragmatism, demonstrating the level of acceptance of Israel in the region, despite the now seven months long war with Hamas.

    The Manama Declaration contains numerous efficacious clauses, including condemning Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping vessels and reaffirming the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) as the sole representative of the Palestinian people. Though receiving virtually no coverage in Israel, it offers the most practical solution for Gaza’s short term future – and elaborates an alternative to Israeli control of the Strip without PA rule in phase one.

    Ultimately, the declaration clears a significant barrier in creating a stable future for Gaza. Arab states could find it difficult to accept an Israeli request for their involvement in Gaza via a Dr. Phil interview, however, an Arab-nation-initiated solution is far more appealing.

    Most importantly, the Manama Declaration calls for a United Nations peacekeeping force to operate in the West Bank, East Jerusalem, and Gaza until a two-state solution is attained. While a UN presence in the West Bank and Jerusalem will undoubtedly be rejected by any Israeli government, a UN peacekeeping force in Gaza initiated by Arab states – coupled with acknowledging that a sovereign Palestinian state will not materialize “tomorrow” – does not negate any of Netanyahu’s declared “No’s.”

    In fact, this proposal includes some of his “Yes’s.”

    Critically, Israel could petition for the gradual introduction of a UN peacekeeping force, which would allow it to continue its operation in Rafah and, hopefully, negotiate for the release of hostages. If a peacekeeping force were to be deployed in the center and North of Gaza, these objectives could still be achieved while preventing a Hamas rebound.

    An Arab-backed UN peacekeeping mission would eventually allow Israel to withdraw ground troops from Gaza, ending the intensive combat phase of the war. It also leaves opportunities for non-PA-led governance in the short term, which would allow Netanyahu to fulfill his promises and allow his far-Right coalition partners to save face. A UN force in Gaza would also allow time to foster a stable Palestinian government in the long term – and does not negate any of Gantz’s notions either.

    THE DECLARATION addresses the concerns of mainstream Israelis and their international partners. Its proposals would save Israeli soldiers’ lives, further engage regional and global stakeholders in Gaza’s future, and allow Israel to follow a regional vision for its problems that does not negate its own needs.  link

  • The Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen claimed Tuesday that they had shot down an American drone over the country on the Arabian Peninsula. The US military acknowledged reports but didn’t comment.

    If confirmed, it would be the second MQ-9 Reaper drone downed by the Houthis over the past week as they press their campaign over the Israel-Hamas war in the Gaza Strip.

    Last Friday, the Houthis claimed downing an American drone over the province of Marib, hours after footage circulated online of what appeared to be the wreckage of an MQ-9 Reaper.  Houthi military spokesman Brig. Gen. Yahya Saree said Tuesday the latest drone was shot down with a locally made surface-to-air missile. He did not say when it occurred but alleged the drone “was carrying out hostile missions” over Yemen’s southern province of Bayda.

    Responding to an Associated Press inquiry, the US military’s Central Command acknowledged reports about the downing but declined to comment.  link

  • Economy Minister Nir Barkat again attacked Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant today (Tuesday) and criticized the way the war is being managed. At a meeting with Druze in the north, Barkat said "Nasrallah smells the weakness of Netanyahu and Gallant, they are cowards."

    Barkat met in Usfiya with the head of the council Munib Saba and with leaders of the Druze community to hear from them about their problems and needs, and to begin formulating a strategic plan for the sector. At the meeting, the Druze residents raised harsh allegations about the government's conduct in the north. 

    "The government is afraid of Nasrallah," the residents claimed at the meeting. "Instead of being strong and ruthless, they only absorb and don't let our soldiers respond. They (Hezbollah) only understand force." Barkat responded to them: "Sadly, I say that Netanyahu and Gallant are cowards. Nasrallah smells the weakness of Netanyahu and Gallant. They are the left in right-wing disguise." Barkat's office said: "We do not refer to the content of closed meetings."

    Yesterday as well, Barkat criticized the conduct of the war at the stormy Likud faction meeting. At that same meeting, Gallant emphasized his opposition to military control in Gaza and said, "I am against a Palestinian state - but I also don't want Hamas or Israel to be in Gaza."

    Gallant was attacked by members of his own faction, including by Barkat who said, "The situation we have reached is stagnation. The cabinet is disconnected. The prime minister and defense minister are disconnected. I am not a rubber stamp. The government is not functioning, there are no meetings, everything is stuck in total stagnation."  

    Barkat added: "You are allowing Qatar to sit in the negotiating room despite them being one of the biggest funders of terror. You haven't learned any lessons."  link  -- More and more Likud Knesset members and Ministers are making statements against the dysfunctional government that they themselves lead. Each of those statements speaks volumes about how bad this government is.

  • Sullivan: Normalization? Not with Netanyahu. Blinken: Perhaps Israel is incapable

    Biden's advisor is promoting a deal with Saudi Arabia that would "settle all arenas", but was disappointed by Netanyahu and claimed in private talks: He's afraid of Ben-Gvir. "Can't the master wordsmith give an ambiguous sentence about a vision for a Palestinian state?", those who spoke with him wondered. Blinken called on Israel to "decide", expressed openness to steps against The Hague - and was met with shouts of "war criminal".

    U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken again called on Israel to agree to Saudi Arabia's conditions for a normalization agreement between the countries, a deal the U.S. has been promoting even before the war started - and now hopes will be a central part of its comprehensive solution. However, Riyadh is demanding Israeli agreement to progress toward a Palestinian state, which Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu firmly refuses.

    "The Saudis are demanding a ceasefire in Gaza and a path to a Palestinian state – and it may be that Israel is unable or unwilling to proceed on that track," Blinken said this evening (Tuesday) at a hearing of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. An even sharper message was conveyed by National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, who said in his talks in Israel this week – after meeting with Netanyahu – that he was very disappointed by what he heard. "With Bibi there will be no normalization with Saudi Arabia," Sullivan said in those talks.

    Sullivan's message was conveyed to several figures in Israel, who got the impression that Biden's senior advisor is very disappointed, almost despairing, with the situation – and fears that Netanyahu simply cannot understand the magnitude of the moment, and make the historic decision that would change the face of the Middle East, preferring instead to preserve his coalition with Ben-Gvir and Smotrich.

    **This is the deal that would "settle all arenas"**

    Sullivan's message is that a deal with Saudi Arabia would "settle all arenas" – including the threat of arrest warrants from the International Criminal Court in The Hague – since the assessment is that they would not prosecute a prime minister who is in the midst of a historic political process. Sullivan said he cannot understand how Netanyahu is giving up on this, just because he is afraid of Ben-Gvir. 

    Those who spoke with Sullivan understood that Netanyahu is unwilling to approve any wording that speaks of a ceasefire, or any sentence that gives a vision of establishing a future Palestinian state. According to American sources, the same Netanyahu is the "master wordsmith" – and suddenly he is unwilling to give an ambiguous statement that would allow a way out of the dead end.

    "After all, you could fill a soccer stadium with people Netanyahu promised things and didn't deliver. We are truly despairing. With Netanyahu there will be no normalization. There is an opportunity here to change the face of the Middle East. Netanyahu has to make a decision: either preserve his coalition or go for a historic move with Saudi Arabia that would require him to pay a price that could jeopardize his coalition," said an American source.

    As perhaps a testament to the great frustration in Washington, some American officials even asked in private talks whether Netanyahu and the Likud are continuing in the path of Begin - or of Kahane. Those who spoke with Sullivan also got the impression that the U.S. is beginning to think about a "Plan B" – a backup plan that could harm Israel's strategic interests. Such an alternative plan has been reported in the past, which could include an agreement only between Saudi Arabia and the U.S.

    Sullivan made it clear to his interlocutors in Israel that the U.S. and Saudi Arabia are very close to concluding a deal whose main points are: an American-Saudi defense alliance; an expanded U.S.-regional security umbrella; Saudi agreement to invest billions of dollars in rebuilding Gaza; a deal for the release of captives; a prolonged ceasefire; and an arrangement with Hezbollah to prevent war.

    For its part, Israel would need to agree to a prisoner deal and ceasefire; Netanyahu would be required to agree to some kind of statement promising the Palestinians a political horizon and a vision of a two-state solution; and Israel would also need to agree to a mechanism for governing Gaza that is neither military rule nor Hamas, but rather Palestinian-civilian governance with elements of moderate Arab states.  link

Acronyms and Glossary

COGAT - Coordination of Government Activities in the Territories

ICC - International Criminal Court in the Hague

IJC - International Court of Justice in the Hague

UAV - Unmanned Aerial vehicle, Drone. Could be used for surveillance and reconnaissance, or be weaponized with missiles or contain explosives for 'suicide' explosion mission

PA - Palestinian Authority - President Mahmud Abbas, aka Abu Mazen
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