Lonny's War Update- October 223, 2023 - May 16, 2024

  

Day 223 that 132 of our hostages in Hamas captivity
**There is nothing more important than getting them home! NOTHING!**

“I’ve never met them,
But I miss them. 
I’ve never met them,
but I think of them every second. 
I’ve never met them,
but they are my family. 
BRING THEM HOME NOW!!!”


There is no victory until all of the hostages are home!
‎אין נצחון עד שכל החטופים בבית

Red Alerts - Missile, Rocket, Drone (UAV - unmanned aerial vehicles), and Terror Attacks and Death Announcements

*3:30am- attempted terror attack in Jerusalem (more below)
*7:20- North- hostile aircraft intrusion Western Galilee
*8:30am- north -hostile aircraft intrusion- Metulla and Sa'sa. Sirens Activated in Hurvat, Metulla and Meron Field School. Two Launches Identified from Lebanon Towards Metulla - No Casualties
*10:00am- West Bank-Stabbing Attack Near Yitzhar - Pursuit of the Terrorist: A terrorist stabbed a person near the Yitzhar junction in Samaria. The injured person evacuated himself towards the Samaria Regional Brigade for medical treatment. Forces have begun pursuing the stabber. - after 3 hours of searching, the terrorist who attacked near Yitzhar was caught and arrested
*10:00am- North- Rockets - Kela, Golan Heights, Lahavot Habashan, Western Galilee - 40 rockets were fired from Lebanon with hits in open areas. Fires have broken out at some of the hit sites. The IDF retaliated with strikes in Ita-a-shab in Southern Lebanon
*11:00am- North- rockets Zra'it, western Galilee
*11:05am- north- hostile aircraft intrusion Even Menahem, Shomera, Shtula
*11:10am- north -  rockets Zra'it,  western Galilee


*The army announced the deaths of 5 soldiers and 7 wounded (3 seriously) in a friendly fire case in Jabaliya in the northern Gaza Strip by IDF tank fire. Seven additional soldiers from the same battalion were injured in the incident, three of them in serious condition. From an initial investigation, it appears that the paratroopers took control of an area in Jabaliya together with armored forces, and some of them entered a three-story building. Simultaneously, soldiers in a tank identified a gun barrel protruding from a window in the building. The soldiers in the tank fired at the building where the soldiers were located and directed another tank - which also fired. Two shells hit the building.
-Captain Roee Beit Yaacov, 22 from Eli
-First Sergeant Gilad Aryeh Boim, 22 from Karmei Shomron
-First Sergeant Betzalel David Shashua, 21 from Tel Aviv
-Sergeant Daniel Hamo, 20 from Tiberius
-Sergeant Ilan Cohen, 20 from Carmiel

May their memories be a blessing

Avidan Beit Yaakov, the father of Captain Roee who was killed yesterday in the disaster in Jabaliya, told Ynet that "he was a sweet boy at home and on the other hand professional and precise in the army. Roee is not a boy who talks too much - he just does and acts, and very quietly." The father, the chairman of the settlement Ali Shalam in Gaza as well - and even met with his son Roy during the fighting in Khan Yunis - added that "we talked quite a bit about the price he might pay, it didn't stop him." Roee Beit Yaakov (22) served as a platoon commander In the 202nd Battalion of the Paratroopers Brigade, four fighters from the battalion were also killed in the incident and eight more were wounded, three of them seriously.

Hostage Updates 

  • Today is the 40th birthday of the hostage Carmel Gat::Carmel Gat (39), a graduate student in occupational therapy, was kidnapped from her parents' home in Be'eri on the Black Saturday. Yardan Roman-Gat, Carmel's sister-in-law who was kidnapped with her, was released after 54 days in Hamas captivity and reunited with her husband Alon and their 3-year-old daughter Gefen. 

Gil Dikman, a cousin of the abductee Carmel Gat who celebrates her 40th birthday in captivity today, told Ynet in an interview that "we really hoped she would be here with us by now. We try to remember positively, and try to hold on to as much hope as possible." Regarding the hostage deal, he added: "I don't believe there is no choice - there were opportunities that were missed. We were at Gantz's house and we heard from him that there were opportunities to release the hostages that were missed. We need to create these opportunities."   --Based on inside information, many opportunities were missed, basically every single one because the negotiating teams never received the full mandate from Netanyahu to bring them home. That means paying the difficult prices. After Gilad Schalit was in Hamas captivity for 5 years,  David Meidan (who was the third Coordinator on the issue of POWs and MIAs appointed for the purpose of getting Gilad home) asked Netanyahu what his mandate is and Netanyahu said, whatever you have to in order to bring him home. Until now, Netanyahu hasn't said those words to the negotiating team and until he does, no deal will be possible.

Gaza Fighting 

  • The US Army JLOTS floating pier off of Gaza is expected to be operational “in the coming days,” says Dan Dieckhaus, response director for USAID, in a briefing.

    The port was built in the Ashdod Port, where it remains, and commodities are currently in Cyprus being inspected and loaded, says Dieckhaus.

    He warns that “the humanitarian situation in Gaza remains incredibly dire.”

    “Humanitarian conditions are deteriorating, and insecurity is escalating, particularly in Rafah, and civilians are suffering,” he continues, adding that “the entire population of Gaza… is facing acute food insecurity, meaning they require food assistance. And the threat of famine is looming.”

    “More than half the population in northern Gaza is facing catastrophic levels of food insecurity,” warns Dieckhaus, “and nearly 30% of the children there are severely malnourished.”

    In the south, he says, it’s nearly half the population.

    This is “further complicated by what is happening in Rafah,” he says, noting that around 450,000 people have fled since May 6 when the IDF took control of the Rafah Crossing. This “risks compounding a humanitarian catastrophe.”

    He says aid workers are facing “significant challenges” getting food in and accessing warehouses.

    The US is “greatly concerned about further population displacement,” from Rafah, says Dieckhaus.

    He notes that there had been “some progress” on the amount of aid going into Gaza, and “more must be done now, especially in light of recent setbacks.”

    He says that the US is pressing Israel to do more to ensure the safety of humanitarian workers and to open additional land crossings into Gaza.

    He stresses that the humanitarian organizations receiving the food will do so in an “independent, neutral, and impartial manner.”

    Vice Admiral Bradley Cooper, deputy commander of the US Central Command, stresses repeatedly that the US military’s only role is “to provide our unique logistics ability” to bring in more aid.

    It “has no other purpose,” Cooper stresses, adding that the US is now “focused on flooding the zone with humanitarian assistance.”

    The ships will sail from Cyprus to a floating platform several kilometers off the Gaza shore. They will then be unloaded, then repacked and loaded onto smaller ships that can carry between five to fifteen truckloads of aid. Those ships will bring it to the floating causeway connected to the coast, where trucks will bring the aid to land.

    The shipments will be received by the World Food Program and the United Nations.

    In response to a question from The Times of Israel, Cooper will not say whether the US would respond to an attack on US troops by Hamas. “Any attack on those working on the mission is an attack on aid for the people of Gaza,” says Cooper.

    The officer says that the US does not believe the pier is exposed to any additional risk beyond what is inherent in a war zone.

    He adds that there are two coordination cells, one in Cyprus and one in Israel.

    Jerusalem “has been highly supportive of this effort,” says Cooper.

    The Palestinian Authority has also been looped into discussions with the US on the plan, says Dieckhaus. “Our understanding is that there is general support.”  link


    US soldiers assemble the Roll-On, Roll-Off Distribution Facility (RRDF), or floating pier, off the shore of Gaza in the Mediterranean Sea on April 26, 2024. (US Army via AP)

  • "Hamas' 'Food Warehouses' - In the Renewed Terror Headquarters | The IDF Estimates: We Will Return to Operate in Zaitoun:
    Nahal soldiers eliminated dozens of militants during the six days of the raid in the neighborhood. The heavy price: five soldiers were killed, 19 injured. The force was stunned by the stockpiles of weapons found in the headquarters that Hamas re-established in a complex of schools and clinics, and by the enormous quantities of food - which the terror organization seized by force. Commanders estimate: "It's clear we'll have to raid there again."
    Soldiers from the Nahal Brigade completed overnight between Tuesday and Wednesday the raid they led on a central Hamas headquarters in the Zaitoun neighborhood in southern Gaza City. This is not the first time the IDF has operated there, but as happens in various places in the Strip, when the IDF leaves - Hamas returns. The soldiers walked four kilometers at night until they returned to Israel.
    The raid was successful: a huge amount of weapons was found, more than 30 militants were eliminated. But the price was heavy: five soldiers killed and 19 injured, including Lt. Col. Yogev Bar Sheshet. The inescapable conclusion of all commanders in the area: The IDF will have to return to Zaitoun, possibly as soon as next month. "This is not mowing the lawn or cutting off the snake's head, this is the reality we expect in order to militarily defeat Hamas," IDF officials say.
    The commander of the Nahal Brigade, Col. Yair Zukerman, is the regular infantry brigade commander who has accumulated the most combat time in the Gaza Strip since October 7, when he replaced his good friend Col. Yehonatan Steinberg, who was killed in battle near Kibbutz Re'im. Despite his immense experience in maneuvering and maintaining the Philadelphi Route, in continuous combat that lasted more than six months, the weapons caches his soldiers discovered during the six-day raid in Zaitoun also stunned him. During the ground maneuver in November and December, the IDF struck Hamas forces hard as troops advanced from western Gaza neighborhoods like Rimal and Sheikh Ajlin toward the eastern neighborhoods of Shuja'iyya and Daraj through Zaitoun. Yet despite this, in recent months a new local terror battalion was established there. The location: a compound of three schools and two adjacent clinics, one of them run by UNRWA, surrounded by dozens of narrow alleys filled with explosive traps - ready for the IDF's third raid on the neighborhood. 
    With the cover provided by thousands of civilians who hid in the "education and health compound," Hamas concentrated hundreds of militants and thousands of weapons there - rockets, RPG missiles, mortar launchers aimed at the Gaza periphery communities in Israel, even a small weapons manufacturing plant with a large lathe that was seized and destroyed.
    A similar pattern was also seen in the raid on Jabaliya, which paratroopers and the 7th Armored Brigade have been leading in recent days: intense battles with militants, uncovering weapons caches - with the guiding idea of the raids being to push Hamas' thousands of militants from neighborhood to neighborhood, district to town, and back again. From Shifa to Zaitoun, from Rimal to Jabaliya, from Beit Hanoun to Beit Lahiya. By doing so, the Southern Command hopes that the two nearly simultaneous raids in the northern Strip will squeeze Hamas from both directions: from Zaitoun northward and from Jabaliya southward, possibly toward Shuja'iyya or Daraj.
    Hamas learned a lot from the ground maneuver and previous raids, but the IDF also drew lessons: the rapid entry of forces, which included envelopments from the north, caused civilians and militants to flee the neighborhood quickly. The element of surprise caused them to leave behind thousands of weapons. In some cases, these were Kalashnikov rifles rigged with hand grenades without their pins - moving the rifle would cause a deadly explosion. The IDF is already familiar with this trick, and the forces did not fall into the trap - in the Nahal Brigade, the lead teams that moved in first were reinforced not only with explosives removal dogs from the Oketz unit, but also with scouts who identified many traps.  link

  • Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Morocco are reportedly considering a US proposal to provide troops for an international peacekeeping force to secure the Gaza Strip and prevent Hamas from regaining power there after the war ends.

    However, the three countries want the US to formally recognize a Palestinian state before such a force is created, according to a Wednesday report in the Financial Times.

    US partners in the Middle East have repeatedly conditioned their support for the rehabilitation of the enclave on the establishment of a pathway to a two-state solution, not wanting the aid they give to be turned to rubble in another Gaza war. While the Biden administration supports efforts to reach a two-state solution, it has come out against the unilateral recognition of a Palestinian state, arguing that such declarations in a vacuum don’t practically advance the effort.

    Other Arab states, including Saudi Arabia, have rejected the US proposal to participate in a peacekeeping force, not wanting to be seen as overly collaborating with Israel, the British business daily said.

    But the latter group of countries has come around to the general idea of having some kind of international force in Gaza, as no other viable alternatives are seen for replacing Israeli troops in the Strip after the war, according to the report, which did not clarify whether those nations would therefore actually be willing to contribute to the envisioned peacekeeping mission.  The US has had a hard time getting the plan off the ground because it’s not willing to contribute any American soldiers to the effort, the report said.

    Moreover, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s refusal to present a clear, viable post-war vision for Gaza has exacerbated US efforts to coax Arab partners to contribute to a peacekeeping force, due to the uncertainty over what kind of environment those troops would be entering. “Israel is refusing to talk to anybody about it, it’s in denial. And everyone else is talking past each other,” the Western official told the Financial Times. “The Arab states say the West has to recognize a Palestinian state, but very few of the major Western states are really close to doing this.”

    Meanwhile, the US has “been trying to build some momentum for a stability force, but the American policy is pretty firm that there will be no American troops on the ground, so it’s hard for them to make the argument that others should,” a person briefed on the talks with Arab countries was quoted as saying, adding that the effort would be led by Washington and that a lot of work remained to establish it.

    An Arab official said that among Arab countries, there are disagreements over what plans should be in place for post-war Gaza, but even more importantly, “nobody knows what the day after will be like.”

    In response to the report, a US State Department spokesperson said Washington’s allies have shown “a willingness to play a constructive role when conditions allow” during discussions on post-war Gaza.

    Netanyahu been adamantly opposed to a two-state solution since October 7 — when Hamas-led terrorists killed some 1,200 people and took another 252 hostage, trigger the ongoing war in Gaza — arguing that granting the Palestinians a state after the attack would amount to a “prize” for terrorism.

    The position has severely hampered US efforts to advance a Saudi-Israel normalization deal as well as any post-war planning. For his part, Qatar’s Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani in December expressed his opposition to the idea of an international force in Gaza, saying, “We shouldn’t always talk about the Palestinians as if they need some guardian.”

    Last week, the UAE’s Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed denounced a suggestion by Netanyahu that Abu Dhabi might assist local Palestinians in managing Gaza after the war.

    In a public challenge Wednesday, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant urged the premier to reject both Israeli military and civil control over the Strip, adding that it was imperative for a plan on post-war Gaza to be developed immediately or else Hamas would return to power.

    Gallant in the past has spoken in favor of an international peacekeeping force in Gaza as well.  link
    --An Arab based international peacekeeping force is a great direction but it has to be part of an overall strategic plan for Gaza. There must be an alternative force to Hamas in Gaza for any chance of ending the war and getting rid of Hamas as the governing and military force in Gaza. Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Morocco's demand of the US to recognize a Palestinian State is correct. How can any country truly support a 2 State Solution while they only recognize one of the states. Biden/the US is again in a very difficult position here. Recognition of a Palestinian State could hurt Biden in a number of ways: relations with Netanyahu and the extreme right government in Israel is already on tenderhooks and this goes diametrically opposite to Netanyahu's stand on veto'ing such a move; and it could hurt Biden in the elections. Yes, he could hopefully get back some of the young votes and the Michigan Arab votes in that crucial state, but it would cost him innumerable Jewish votes of the jews who believe everything Netanyahu says and what AIPAC echoes, or even those who don't, many would see this as a betrayal to Israel because they aren't able to see the whole picture. It is a very problematic scenario.

Northern Israel - Lebanon/Hizbollah

  • IDF Confirms: Hezbollah UAV Struck Last Night Near Sensitive Security Site Close to Golani Junction
    The IDF confirms that Hezbollah launched a UAV that exploded near a sensitive security site, dozens of kilometers from the border with Lebanon, close to the Golani Junction. The organization claims the attack involved "multiple attack drones."


  • The terrorist organization Hezbollah took responsibility for firing towards the north of the Golan Heights, and claimed that it attacked "military bases with more than 60 rockets". According to the organization, the shooting was carried out in response to the Israeli attack deep in Lebanon during the night.

West Bank and Jerusalem

  • Attempted terrorist attack in Jerusalem: a terrorist tried to stab security guards - and was neutralized:The police reported that the border police who were operating outside the Shalem police station, noticed the suspect who was near them and began to examine him - then the terrorist pulled out a knife he had in his possession, charged at the police officers and tried to stab one of them. The soldiers responded by shooting and the terrorist was neutralized.  (Through the use of euphemisms, we know longer know from these reports if the person was neutralized, i.e. put out of commission, or if the person was killed. The reports used to distinguish between the two. This blurring of information is deliberate and suspicious)

Politics and the Region

  • The pro-Iranian militias in Iraq claim to have attacked a "vital target" in Eilat with a UAV
  • The chairman of the Confrontation Line Forum and head of the Mateh Asher Regional Council, Moshe Davidovich, sent Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu a scathing letter, about "the failure of the plan to strengthen and develop the confrontation line - which screams to the heavens." According to him, "superficial work is being done. The Prime Minister's Office sends us recycled drafts, lacking in essential sections and blatantly ignoring the needs in particular." Davidovitz added that "we 'accept' ego battles between government officials, lack of cooperation between governments - and budget laundering. If the situation continues, the northern line of confrontation will be abandoned."

  • In the Shadow of Houthi Attacks: Amount of Cargo Passing Through Suez Canal Halved::
    According to data from Dryad Global, a company specializing in maritime trade security, Egypt suffered a loss of about $1.2 billion. The trend was recorded due to rising insurance premiums, fuel costs and wage expenses - and the fact that companies are forced to choose longer shipping routes.
    The amount of cargo passing through the Suez Canal between mid-December 2023 and April 1, 2024 - decreased by more than half. This stems from an estimate by the maritime trade security company Dryad Global. The data, published this week, shows that Egypt suffered a loss of about $1.2 billion due to this until last March.
    According to the company, the trend was recorded, among other things, against the backdrop of rising insurance premiums, fuel costs and wage expenses. This is while companies are forced to choose longer shipping routes, around Africa, adding 14 days to the journey. 
    Earlier this month, Maersk, the world's second-largest shipping company, said it would not return to the Suez Canal until at least the end of 2024.
    Since last November, the Houthis have been attacking ships in the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Initially, these were commercial vessels, and then, when the United States and Britain began to retaliate against the armed groups, their ships were also attacked. The Houthis have now expanded their area of operations and, as they previously warned, have begun attacking ships in the Indian Ocean. 
    Officially, the Houthis declare that they only attack Israeli merchant ships or ships linked to Israel, but in practice their victims are ships from various countries, which do not always have any connection to Israel.  link  



  • In an interview with CNBC released earlier today, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu compares the anti-government protest movement in Israel to the pro-Palestinian and anti-Israel protests that have erupted on US college campuses in recent weeks.

    Asked if he believes he still has the backing of the majority of the Israeli public, over seven months on from the October 7 Hamas massacre and the start of the war in Gaza, Netanyahu says that “you can go on the streets and see the vast support that is there,” for his government.

    “You won’t know it, because everyone’s fixated on these protests,” he says of the weekly demonstrations in favor of a hostage deal and early elections that attract thousands in Tel Aviv, Jerusalem and across Israel each week.

    “But they don’t reflect the majority of the people any more than the mobocracies in American campuses,” Netanyahu says, drawing a comparison between the two. “These protesters, these mobs, do they reflect the majority of the American people? No. Well it’s the same thing here,” he adds.

    “The majority of the people here support a victory, they want to see a victory, they want to see Hamas removed because they understand that their very future is on the line,” Netanyahu adds.  The protests calling for early elections and the demonstrations in favor of a hostage deal have increasingly merged in recent months as the mass anti-government protests that were a weekly event before October 7 slowly picked up momentum once more.

    The protests frequently feature speeches from family members of Hamas hostages, some of whom have accused Netanyahu of blocking a hostage deal for political reasons.

    The protests for the hostages are organized and led by the Hostages and Missing Families Forum,  an umbrella body founded on behalf of the families of 252 people abducted from Israel on October 7.

    The anti-Israel campus protests in the US were the result of a wave of unrest that saw students set up encampments with calls for the school to cut ties with Israel and any businesses that support it.

    Students and others on campuses whom law enforcement authorities have identified as outside agitators have taken part in the protests from Columbia University in New York City to UCLA.

    Netanyahu previously compared the anti-Israel protests in the US to “what happened in German universities in the 1930s,” under Nazi rule.  link  -- Of course, Netanyahu compares the demonstrators against the government as being the same as the anti Israel protests in the campuses. Netanyahu is the great divider for as long as he has been in politics. He doesn't see the country's population as one or even care to be prime minister for all. He always calls it us and them and the 'them' is anyone who is against him. He has spent his career besmirching anyone on the left and evening turning the term left into a dirty word and equal to traitor. He claims that the majority support the government and support his call for victory. It's an absurd claim for multiple reasons. Firstly, the movement calling for early elections is growing exponentially every day with more and more people coming to the demonstrations and calling for new elections and for Netanyahu to go home. A few months ago, it was up to over 80% who wanted him to go home but after the war. No one expected the war to go on for so long and not to have the hostages released, so more and more of that 80% are calling for elections now and not at some unknown time in the future as the war drags out. Secondly, Netanyahu has never defined what his 'total victory' is, what it looks like, what achievements have to be made to reach it, nothing.  So, how can he even make  a statement like that “The majority of the people here support a victory". No one knows what it is so it is very unlikely that people would support such an unknown idea. Yes, everyone wants to see the last of Hamas and the threat they bring to us and to Gaza, but very few believe that Netanyahu can bring that, especially in light of the absence of any strategic plan, a diplomatic one that spells out what the next day will be. And add to the mix, the most important factor that the majority of the population want to get the hostages home now even at the very high costs we will have to pay. We can finish Hamas, whatever that means in the future. We cannot wait for the hostages because there won't be anyone left alive by the time Netanyahu decides that it is the most important thing, even more important that his political career.

Acronyms and Glossary

COGAT - Coordination of Government Activities in the Territories

ICC - International Criminal Court in the Hague

IJC - International Court of Justice in the Hague

UAV - Unmanned Aerial vehicle, Drone. Could be used for surveillance and reconnaissance, or be weaponized with missiles or contain explosives for 'suicide' explosion mission

PA - Palestinian Authority - President Mahmud Abbas, aka Abu Mazen
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