🎗️Lonny's War Update- October 226, 2023 - May 19, 2024

  

🎗️Day 226 that 128 of our hostages in Hamas captivity
**There is nothing more important than getting them home! NOTHING!**

“I’ve never met them,

But I miss them. 

I’ve never met them,

but I think of them every second. 

I’ve never met them,

but they are my family. 

BRING THEM HOME NOW!!!”

There is no victory until all of the hostages are home!

‎אין נצחון עד שכל החטופים בבית

Red Alerts - Missile, Rocket, Drone (UAV - unmanned aerial vehicles), and Terror Attacks and Death Announcements

*6:30am- south- rockets Kibbutz Kfar Aza

*9:00am- south -rockets Sderot, kibbutzim Nir Am and Ibim

10:05am-north -rockets- kibbutz Malkia

10:05am- north- hostile aircraft intrusion- Dishon, Yiftach, Tamot Naftali, Lower Golan Heights 

*11:50am- Terror attack north Jerusalem outskirts , Abu Dis. A terrorist attempted to stab Border Police forces with a screwdriver. Upon quick action by the forces, they were able to neutralize him without any injuries to the forces. The terrorist was being treated at the scene

*12:05pm- north - hostile aircraft intrusion- Dafna, Snir, Kfar Giladi, Kfar Yuval, Golan and Upper Galilee 

*2:30pm- north- hostile aircraft intrusion- Golan and Upper Galilee 

**The army announced the death of 2 soldiers who were killed in battle by an IED in a tunnel shaft east of Rafah. 

-Sergeant Haim Vaknin, 20 from Eilat

-Sergeant Noam Battan, 29 from Moshav Yad Rambam

May their memories be a blessing 

. 

Hostage Updates 

• **Violent clashes at Tel Aviv rally for return of captives - Bereaved father claims he was attacked by right-wing activist, evacuated to hospital**

  
  

  At the end of the rally, as police blocked off the Azrieli junction and the Ayalon highway, some of the protesters began descending onto the road and some were detained by police. Gadi Kadem, whose daughter, son-in-law and three grandchildren were murdered on October 7, claimed: "I was attacked by a right-wing activist in Tel Aviv." However, right-wing activists claimed that they were actually the ones attacked by him, and he was evacuated to the hospital. Opposition leader Lapid at the rally stated: "I swear, this government will fall." The ambassadors of the US, UK and Germany spoke at a rally of the Forum of Hostage Families Movement's headquarters in the Museum plaza.
  
  

Gaza 

• My brother’s Facebook post: WHAT EVERYONE NEEDS TO UNDERSTAND

  • Hamas needs to understand that Israel will not end the war until all of the Israeli hostages are returned to Israel.

  • Israel has to understand that all of the hostages will not be returned home unless the war comes to an end.

  • Hamas and Palestinians needs to understand that the war will not end unless there is a different regime in Gaza which is not dedicated to the destruction of Israel and the continuation of the Palestinian armed struggle against Israel. 

  • Israel needs to understand that there are Palestinians and Palestinian forces that are willing to take the keys from Hamas to govern Gaza, on the condition that Israel ends the war and withdraws from Gaza. Israel needs to understand that this is possible. 

  • The people of Gaza need to know that if Hamas continues to rule Gaza and Israel continues to occupy Gaza, there will be no reconstruction of Gaza and no money for reconstruction. 

  • Hamas and the people of Gaza need to know that if the war does not end and if Hamas continues to rule Gaza, the blockade on Gaza will not end.  

  • Egypt needs to understand that if are smuggling tunnels between Gaza and Sinai and they are not permanently shut down, Israel will not withdraw from Gaza.

  • All of the countries in the region and the world need to know that if Hamas continues to rule Gaza, and Israel continues to occupy Gaza, there will be no Arab-led or other international peacekeeping forces sent to Gaza.

  • Israelis needs to know that if Gaza remains occupied by Israel, Hezbollah will continue to launch attacks over its border into Israel. 

  • Israelis also need to know that once the war in Gaza is over and the war with Hezbollah is also over, there is a great chance to remove the threat of Hezbollah attacks against Israel through diplomatic channels. This will also require address and resolve the land disputes between Israel and Lebanon on the international border. 

  • We all need to understand that it is possible to bring home all of the hostages; it is possible to end the war; it is possible to replace the Hamas regime in Gaza with other responsible Palestinian forces; it is possible to bring an Arab-led international peacekeeping force to Gaza; it is possible to end the blockade of Gaza; it is possible to bring large amounts of money for the reconstruction of Gaza; it is possible to remove the mutual threat between Israel and Hezbollah for years to come; it is possible to launch a renewed genuine peace process leading to the end of Israel’s occupation and the realization of a genuine two-states solution.  All of this is dependent on getting rid of the current leaderships and bringing in leaders who support all of these possibilities!

  
  

• From US Central Command: The men and women of U.S. Central Command are proud to support USAID in the delivery of humanitarian assistance to Gaza. This corridor is a multinational and combined effort led by USAID and the Department of Defense - alongside the Republic of Cyprus, the United Nations, and international donors, including the UAE, the United Kingdom, Romania, and the European Union.
  
  
  
• Between Military Rule and Security Control in the Strip: The Differences - and Implications

  
  

  Many questions arise about the "day after" the war in Gaza - and what is required in terms of governance in the Strip. The issue of control was raised again this week in Defense Minister Gallant's statement, in which he clarified that military rule is a "dangerous and bad alternative for Israel." This comes as there are voices in the government that are indeed calling for it - such as Minister Smotrich. What does military rule mean - and what are the implications?

  
  

  Military Rule

  
  

  - What does it mean? A state's military is responsible for the population in the area, in the current case the IDF in the Gaza Strip.

  
  

  The Implications:

  
  

  - Handling law and order in the area and distributing humanitarian aid to civilians: policing, dealing with the population and infrastructure like sewage and electricity.

  
  

  - Security: Bringing in large forces into the Strip area - and leaving them statically. 

  
  

  - It may also burden reserve soldiers.

  
  

  - Removing international responsibility for what happens in the Strip.  

  
  

  - Governing responsibility over many civilians, allocating extensive resources to that area.

  
  

  - Impacting IDF manpower in other arenas.  

  
  

  - The forces are exposed to harm in the area since they are constantly present.

  
  

  - Economic burden: A military and civilian operation in the Strip is estimated to cost NIS 60 billion per year.

  
  

  Prof. Amichai Cohen, a senior fellow at the Israel Democracy Institute and an expert in international law, explains what it legally means: "Israeli military rule in the Gaza Strip means the full application of the 'laws of belligerent occupation' or 'occupation laws' from international law, describing a factual situation in which a military force temporarily controls an area that is not part of the state and whose residents are not citizens of that state. There are already those who believe that Israel has the status of an occupying power in the Gaza Strip, and thus full responsibility for what happens there. This is due to its control over the scope of the Strip and all its entry and exit points, as well as frequent military activity in the area (at least in the northern Strip). Other positions, including Israel's, disagree for now, arguing that Israel has not left forces on the ground that would allow it effective military control, but the more Israel deepens its control, even without establishing a formal military administration, the more these voices will grow."

  
  

  "The military force controlling the area has the duty 'to maintain public order and life' (Article 43 of the Hague Regulations). This means that the military force is responsible for ensuring the normal life of the residents, including providing for food, housing and security for the residents. Concretely: the meaning of military rule is that the IDF will have to ensure that residents receive food (and not just allow its transfer), that hospitals operate, essential civilian services and so on. If the IDF is indeed defined as an 'occupying power', it is reasonable to assume that the IDF will also be obligated to act to begin the rehabilitation of the Gaza Strip, and even to return residents to their homes if the security situation permits."

  
  

  Differences from Military Rule until the Oslo Accords

  
  

  - Israel previously had military rule. However, there are critical differences between then and the possibility of it happening again today.

  
  

  - The population size was smaller, about half, which affected the number of forces that entered and how civilians were controlled. 

  
  

  - It should be emphasized that even then it was a "weight" on the security system, but the implications were different due to the fact that the population size was genuinely smaller.

  
  

  Security Control

  
  

  - The IDF has security control over the area.

  
  

  - The forces are not always present, but operate in raids based on intelligence.

  
  

  - It is possible to operate on the ground and from the air at any time.  

  
  

  - Civilian control over the Strip: Not by the IDF, but by another authorized entity.

  
  

  The one who is actually interested in military rule in Gaza is Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who wrote on his X account two days ago: "It's a pity the top command didn't bother to check before October 7th what price we had to pay in many lives and hundreds of billions due to the concept that Hamas is deterred, and security can be maintained without a presence on the ground. Maybe that would have caused them to change their stubborn opposition to entering Gaza in order to destroy Hamas. Now only full military control in Gaza will ensure victory and security for the residents of the south and the state."

  
  

  "I call on the Prime Minister to make a strategic decision on full Israeli control in Gaza and a decision that from now on, we do not stop our forces in Rafah, in the center and in the northern Strip until all the war goals are achieved."

  
  

  In January, Smotrich said in an interview with "Meet the Press": "There will be an Israeli military administration in Gaza. We all agree that we need to stay in Gaza. I told everyone in the cabinet: I'm not against you bringing in a moderate factor, but there is no such thing. We will focus on a humanitarian effort and stand in international law."

  
  

  "Either the IDF will manage things there, or Hamas," he continued. "We are working to eliminate the Hamas threat and that will take time, and as long as Hamas is there, no one else will do the work for us. I am in favor of managing the humanitarian effort differently, in a way that does not reach Hamas or help it maintain the dependence of civilians on it. The only way is for the IDF to control what happens in the Gaza Strip."

Link   -- It would be nice if we could ignore everything that comes out of Smotrich's mouth as most of it is pure dribble. He is the Finance minister with no understanding of economics and finance and no interest in learning and understanding. When our credit rating was degraded, he said that Moody's doesn't understand what happens in Israel and that it wouldn't make any difference to us anyway. In finances, his only concern i is that money and lots of it flows to the settlements and new settlement activity and to Jewish religious education and that money stops flowing to the Arab sector. As a Minister in the Defense ministry, he has absolutely no understanding of defense, military strategy, organization or budgetary needs. The only thing he wanted for his part in the defense ministry is to be the one who decides on Settlement activity in the West Bank, budgets, buildings, land allocations, etc. Unfortunately, he and Ben Gvir have Netanyahu by the short hairs and have been controlling much of Netanyahu's policy about almost everything. And Netanyahu allows them to get away with it because he depends on them to keep his government together. Netanyahu, in his never ending desire to remain Prime Minister normalized enabled the most extreme elements of our society (who have criminal records for Jewish Terror activities) to have overwhelming control of the country.

Northern Israel - Lebanon/Hizbollah

• Since October 7, 170 homes in Metulla have been destroyed by Hizbollah, which makes up approximately 30% of the homes there. 
  

• Smotrich Calls for Sending Forces into Lebanon: "Create a Security Strip in Southern Lebanon"

  The Finance Minister called for issuing an ultimatum to Hezbollah: Withdraw all your forces beyond the Litani River or the IDF will launch a "Defensive Shield" deep into Lebanon. The Minister called for "establishing a security strip" in order to defeat Nasrallah, achieve "full control" over the Strip and conquer Rafah. In response to journalists' questions, he added: "We are headed for war, it is inevitable." A senior security official attacked the Minister: "He is leading a dangerous path."

  The chairman of the Religious Zionist party and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich today (Sunday) called for issuing an ultimatum to Hezbollah, and if not met, to establish a "security strip" in southern Lebanon with the aim of "defeating Nasrallah." According to him, Israel should launch a "Defensive Shield" war inside Lebanese territory and conquer its south in order to remain there. Regarding the Gaza Strip, Smotrich clarified that the army must remain inside the Strip and maintain "full control" there.

  The Three Steps Smotrich Demanded from Netanyahu:

  1. Permanent IDF presence across the entire Gaza Strip and full control of the area: "Instead of talking about withdrawing from the Netzarim corridor, we need to establish more outposts and control lines in the north, center and south of the Gaza Strip," he claimed. This is the only way to prevent the situation where IDF forces repeatedly return to the area when Hamas takes advantage of their absence.

  2. Immediate completion of the operation along the entire Philadelphi Route - and full conquest of Rafah: The Minister demanded maintaining a permanent presence at the Rafah crossing, along the Philadelphi Route and in Rafah city, in order to prevent continued smuggling from Egypt to Hamas and cut off the militants' oxygen supply.

  3. Issuing a public ultimatum to Hezbollah: The Minister demanded leaving Hezbollah two options - either completely cease fire and withdraw all its forces beyond the Litani River, or the IDF will launch a "Defensive Shield" on northern communities deep into Lebanese territory, including a ground incursion and Israeli military control over southern Lebanon.

  In response to journalists' questions, he added: "We are headed for war, it is inevitable." A senior security official attacked Smotrich for his firm statements, saying: "After sending the fighters for military rule in Gaza, he is sending them to rule over Lebanon - leading a dangerous path."  

  "These steps are the only way to ensure security and victory for Israel's residents, achieve the war goals and bring all the captives home," he claimed. According to him, for many months the war has been stagnating: "The operation in Rafah should have happened many months ago, the IDF's moves of withdrawing all forces from the area turned out to be a serious mistake - and we are now paying a heavy price for it." Smotrich added that "in parallel, there were reckless negotiations, including heavy concessions on all the achievements of the war - which only gave Sinwar and Hamas more fuel and a tailwind and distanced the prospect of returning all the captives to their homes."

  The Minister argued that "the conception shared by senior security and military officials for years" was based on the belief that "it is possible to make do with a small and smart army, that it is possible to leave military control on the ground and flee beyond fences and walls, and settle for arrangements and agreements not worth the paper they are written on."  

  He attributed this to the Oslo Accords, the Disengagement from Gush Katif, "the IDF's flight from the security strip in Lebanon by Ehud Barak and Bogey Ya'alon's statement that Hezbollah's missiles would rust." The Minister emphasized that "the way to bring residents home is through a military decision in a deadly attack on Hezbollah, its infrastructure and the destruction of its power. The era when residents rely on papers and promises that have nothing behind them is over - and in the end they explode in our faces."

  Economic Aid and Attack on Gantz

  The Minister announced that this week an "dramatic and unprecedented" economic aid plan will be approved to strengthen northern communities and residents. "The decision includes NIS 1 billion in cash for use this year for education, welfare, health and strengthening local government," he said. "Two billion for immediate use for fortification and security components and three billion from next year for rehabilitation of the north and development of employment, transportation, agriculture and infrastructure rehabilitation."

  He also took the opportunity to attack Gantz over the ultimatum he set for Prime Minister Netanyahu. "The meaning of Gantz's demand is in effect to stop the war, a defeat for Israel and the establishment of a Palestinian state under American dictation that would endanger the existence of the State of Israel." He added: "Gantz is right that the war is stagnating and not achieving the goals set by the government, and this stagnation is under your responsibility and that of your colleagues in the cabinet conception who have been working for months to stop the war, for reckless concessions, surrendering to Hamas, establishing a Palestinian state and a surrender agreement with Hezbollah." Smotrich continued to accuse Gantz that "the nice wrapping that Benny Gantz is trying to sell to the residents of the north about an arrangement with Hezbollah is a mirage that will explode in the faces of the residents of the north and all of us, just like on October 7th."  link - I have already stated my opinions on Smotrich above. Most everything that comes out of his mouth is idiotic with massive ramifications for us now and going into the future for many years.

West Bank

• 
  

Politics and the Region

• Top Objective? Gantz Changed Returning the Captives to "A Top Priority Mission" 

  
  

  Gantz sent two letters to PM Netanyahu, one day after the other, containing a "slight change" • Initially Gantz demanded the return of the hostages and setting it as a "top objective", and later demanded returning the hostages as "a top priority mission in the war" • Gantz's letters come against the backdrop of the ultimatum he gave Netanyahu: A new action plan by June 8 or the withdrawal of the National Camp from the government.

  
  

  National Camp Chairman Minister Benny Gantz sent a letter to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu this morning (Sunday) in which he demanded "updating the war objectives in Gaza by the war cabinet". Against the backdrop of his statement in which he set an ultimatum for the PM, Minister Gantz also sent a letter to Netanyahu last night laying out his demands.

  
  

  In his new letter, Gantz claimed that the war cabinet "will formulate a clear action plan and approve it", with its first goal being "the return of the hostages and setting this goal as a top priority mission in the war, including allocating the necessary resources for it." However, in the letter Gantz sent to the PM last night, the first demand stated: "Returning the hostages and setting this goal as the top objective in the war, including allocating the necessary resources for it."

  
  

  "Against the backdrop of the recent discussions we have held, the developments in the war arenas, the strategic challenges and opportunities before us, I re-emphasize the immediate necessity to set clear and defined goals in the ongoing campaign in light of the present and the future," Gantz wrote in his letters. "My demand is that the war management cabinet formulate a clear plan that will lead to the realization of five strategic goals of national importance, by 6/8/24."

  
  

  As mentioned, with the statement Minister Gantz made last night in which he presented six war goals, Gantz sent two slightly different letters to the PM, in which he demanded, among other things, the return of the captives, continued action to remove Hamas' military threat, and moves to dismantle the Gaza Strip.

  
  

  Gantz's Plan of Objectives:

  
  

  1. Bring our hostages home.

  2. Topple Hamas rule, dismantle the Gaza Strip and ensure Israeli security control. 

  3. Alongside Israeli security control, establish an American-European-Arab-Palestinian administration that will manage the Strip civilly and lay the foundation for a future alternative that is neither Hamas nor Abbas.

  4. Return residents of the North to their homes by September 1 and rehabilitate the Western Negev.

  5. Advance normalization with Saudi Arabia as part of a broader move that will forge an alliance with the free world and the Arab world against Iran.

  6. Adopt a service outline that will ensure all Israelis serve the state and contribute to the supreme national effort.  link
  ---There are a number of problematic issues with Gantz's letter and demands. Firstly, why now and not months ago. This letter should have been sent months ago, and if was up to Gadi Eisencott, it would have been. Gantz may have been pushing some or all of these demands quietly up until now, but i don't think his push has been strong enough. With Defense Minister's public statements last week about the poor handling of the war, the lack of strategy and the absence of an alternative to Hamas forced Gantz's hand and making a public statement. For anyone who heard it, it was a very long statement with very little essence. Someone reminded me that Lincoln recited the Gettysburg Address in 3 minutes. It is one of the most well known and important public addresses in history and only took 3 minutes. My brother said that people who have very little to say, use a lot of words to say it. Now back to Gantz's points. It is about time that someone demand that the Hostages' return be the stated ultimate and most important priority of the war. Many hostages' lives have been lost because it wasn't until now. Points 2 and 3 are missing a crucial piece and that being an Alternative Palestinian governing body. It cannot be anything but Palestinian. He deliberately didn't state a reformed Palestinian Authority so as not to ruffle any more of Netanyahu's feathers, but that is a mistake. Netanyahu is not going to go along with this ultimatum anyway, so why worry about ruffling his feathers. Point 4 is the right thing to return all the evacuated residents to their homes by September 1, the start of the new school year, but there is no statement about how to provide a better security situation for either the North or the South. Perhaps because this document is strategic in nature and the how to's are more tactical. However, being able to get the northern residents back to their homes and how to do it (militarily or diplomatically or a mix) is strategy and there is no mention of that. Point 5 cannot be done without Saudi Arabia's number 1 demand, the start of definitive and irrevocable steps towards the actual creation of a Palestinian State, and this is most definitely a strategic plan. Point 6 about the draft law. Currently, this is one of the most precarious issues facing  Netanyahu's government today. Not the war in the south, not the very tense situation in the North which could become a war, not Iran, but appeasing the Haredim by maintaining a very large exemption from army service and paying the yeshivot and yeshiva students huge stipends not to serve.

Acronyms and Glossary

COGAT - Coordination of Government Activities in the Territories

ICC - International Criminal Court in the Hague

IJC - International Court of Justice in the Hague

UAV - Unmanned Aerial vehicle, Drone. Could be used for surveillance and reconnaissance, or be weaponized with missiles or contain explosives for 'suicide' explosion mission

PA - Palestinian Authority - President Mahmud Abbas, aka Abu Mazen

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